1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [4]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory significantly decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory slightly increased [4]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, and the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [5]. - Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels in the external cracking spread. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but there was no driver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 320.55 | 316.99 | 325.12 | 327.47 | 323.91 | -3.56 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 375.22 | 364.37 | 368.94 | 369.76 | 370.46 | 0.70 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -9.66 | -8.87 | -8.40 | -8.26 | -8.86 | -0.60 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 602.86 | 588.11 | 594.14 | 593.29 | 588.07 | -5.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -227.64 | -223.74 | -225.20 | -223.53 | -217.61 | 5.92 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.59 | 22.32 | 22.33 | 22.13 | 20.77 | -1.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 54.67 | 47.38 | 43.82 | 42.29 | 46.55 | 4.26 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 337.68 | 332.73 | 337.69 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 344.37 | 341.31 | 344.87 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 415.04 | 406.98 | 404.54 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 80.91 | 79.66 | 78.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.78 | -7.27 | -6.18 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -183.69 | -182.50 | -179.69 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 333.35 | 328.39 | 333.61 | 339.30 | 332.35 | -6.95 | | FOB VLSFO | 415.10 | 407.01 | 404.59 | 407.57 | 403.41 | -4.16 | | 380 Basis | -3.00 | -4.05 | -3.25 | -3.00 | -2.95 | 0.05 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | -0.4 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2417 | 2368 | 2384 | 2403 | 2356 | -47 | | FU 05 | 2474 | 2431 | 2444 | 2464 | 2415 | -49 | | FU 09 | 2445 | 2400 | 2412 | 2431 | 2382 | -49 | | FU 01 - 05 | -57 | -63 | -60 | -61 | -59 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 0 | | FU 09 - 01 | 28 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 26 | -2 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/15 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/17 | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2988 | 2900 | 2864 | 2901 | 2886 | -15 | | LU 05 | 3003 | 2934 | 2912 | 2936 | 2912 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3039 | 2977 | 2956 | 2977 | 2952 | -25 | | LU 01 - 05 | -15 | -34 | -48 | -35 | -26 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | -36 | -43 | -44 | -41 | -40 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | 51 | 77 | 92 | 76 | 66 | -10 | [4] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data | Date | 2025/12/18 | 2025/12/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Value | 341.67 | 335.69 | -5.98 | | Value | 352.34 | 342.69 | -9.65 | | Value | 407.95 | 404.73 | -3.22 | | Value | 79.76 | 78.63 | -1.13 | | Value | -6.01 | -6.57 | -0.56 | | Value | -182.27 | -177.13 | 5.14 | [8]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4337.60 with a change of 4.25 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 65.79 with a change of - 0.51 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1924.00 with a change of 18.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00 with a change of 68.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 56.52 with a change of 0.37 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 11809.50 with a change of 95.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.71 with a change of 0.27 [1] - Euro - US Dollar's latest value is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - British Pound - US Dollar's latest value is 1.34 with a change of - 0.00 [1] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen's latest value is 157.73 with a change of 2.17 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.92 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14112.48 with a change of 17.12 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 899.64 with a change of - 12.52 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.54 with a change of 0.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16066.24 with a change of 47.95 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Gold's is 1, with no change [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.10% to 2148.00 CNY/ton [1] Supply - The operating rate of production enterprises has increased to 90.52%, with production reaching 2.056 million tons, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic gas-based methanol production facilities are undergoing insufficient maintenance, leading to record production levels in December [1] Demand - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) industry is seeing a decrease in weekly average operating rates due to the continued shutdown of facilities at Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake [1] - The operational load of the Lianhong Gelun MTO facility is gradually increasing, which is expected to result in a slight increase in industry operating rates in the short term [1] Inventory - As of December 18, methanol inventory at East China ports was 610,600 tons, down from 632,900 tons on December 11, reflecting a decrease of 22,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of certain facilities will lead to a decline in imports from mid to late December into January, while MTO facility loads are also expected to decrease [1] - Due to slow unloading rates, there is a significant drop in inventory, which may lead to a rebound in prices; however, the potential for a substantial increase in downstream polyolefin prices is limited, suggesting a price ceiling for methanol [1] - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom oscillation trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US CPI and core CPI in November dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, far lower than market expectations, but data credibility is questionable. The market reacted positively, with expectations of Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and was vague on easing [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a structured rise with reduced trading volume, and the bond market was also divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver prices may face adjustment risks, and platinum and palladium should not be chased at high prices due to regulatory measures and data uncertainties [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to mild inflation data and tight fundamentals [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily due to positive macro factors and good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile as the supply remains abundant [10]. - Cast aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to cost support [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating as there is support from inventory reduction but also pressure from market uncertainties [12]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to low inventory and cost support [14]. - Tin prices' upward momentum is weakening, and chasing high prices should be cautious [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile as supply and demand show marginal improvement [17]. - Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains [20]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to policy stimulation [21]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as US soybeans continue to decline and the supply in China is sufficient [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating as Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October and market factors are complex [24]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US November CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected. The data's credibility is in doubt. The market expects Fed rate cuts. The ECB maintained rates and didn't give clear easing guidance [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced volume, showing a structured market. The bond market was divided. The short - term A - share market is expected to be volatile and weak, and the bond market's main trend is unclear [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices had a short - term rise and then a fall after the US CPI data release, facing increased adjustment risks. Platinum and palladium prices continued to rise, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted platinum futures' daily opening positions, so chasing high prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract oscillated upward, and LME copper oscillated around $11,700. Mild inflation data is beneficial for a dovish stance. Fundamentally, mine restarts are slow, and inventories are low. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 21,955 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. LME aluminum closed at $2,917/ton, up 0.38%. US inflation data boosted rate - cut expectations, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory verified year - end consumption resilience. Aluminum prices are expected to rise steadily [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures' main contract closed at 2,553 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The supply is abundant with inventory flowing into the market and imports arriving. Alumina prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures' main contract closed at 21,110 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. At the end of the year, both supply and demand decreased. Cast aluminum prices are supported by the cost of scrap aluminum and are expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly. The US CPI data had a limited impact. Consumption showed resilience, and social inventory declined. However, LME had continuous small - volume warehousing. Zinc prices are expected to continue oscillating [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly. The supply side had a mixed situation of reduction and resumption. The terminal was in the off - season, but low inventory and cost support are expected to keep lead prices oscillating narrowly [13][14]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract oscillated strongly at night. The supply - side disturbance support weakened, and downstream acceptance of high - priced tin was under pressure. Tin prices' upward momentum is expected to weaken [15]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side shows some changes. Social inventory rose slightly. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong and volatile [16][17]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products were slightly adjusted, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to follow a short - term rebound but maintain an oscillating pattern [18][19]. 3.12 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated upward. The supply was strong with high overseas shipments and port inventory accumulation, while the demand was weak as steel mills cut production. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. Policy stimulation strengthened the bottom support. Coking enterprises' costs increased, and the supply was generally loose. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound in the short term [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. US soybeans continued to decline, and the supply in China was sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures showed a mixed performance. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October due to increased domestic consumption. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak and oscillating [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the high - sulfur monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The European high - sulfur cracking spread weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The Singapore 0.5% cracking spread fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the Singapore VLSFO cracking spread further weakened [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil, high - sulfur floating storage, ARA residual oil, and Fujairah residual oil increased in inventory. High - sulfur floating storage and EIA residual oil decreased in inventory. This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound [3][4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, the external low - sulfur fuel oil has support, but the short - term upside space is limited. Global residual oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and the spot market shows no improvement, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a low valuation but no driving force for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 decreased by 1.46, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased by 1.27, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.35, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 2.60, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 3.87, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 2.73 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 0.34, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 4.31, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 0.88, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 0.22, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.36, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 0.75 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 5.69, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.98, the 380 - basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.0 [2]. Domestic FU Futures Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of FU 01 increased by 19, the price of FU 05 increased by 20, the price of FU 09 increased by 19, the FU 01 - 05 decreased by 1, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and the FU 09 - 01 remained unchanged [2]. Domestic LU Futures Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of LU 01 increased by 37, the price of LU 05 increased by 24, the price of LU 09 increased by 21, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 13, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 3, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 16 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to weaken. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, with a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons (CCF data) or 75.5 tons (Longzhong data), showing an increase [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but high supply would resume in January. Overseas supply returned to neutral, and the increase in port inventory could be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline [2]. - For investment strategies, a neutral stance was recommended for unilateral trading. There was large production capacity release pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure was still large from January to February [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3758 yuan/ton, a change of +58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.57%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread - The report mentioned the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data was provided [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline. However, no specific data on downstream sales, production and operating rate was given in the provided text [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons, an increase of +2.5 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 75.5 tons, an increase of +3.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports of East China this week was 11.8 tons, and the arrival volume at secondary ports was 3 tons, which was slightly high overall, and the main ports were expected to have a slight inventory accumulation [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The fundamentals of both LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene has high maintenance levels on the supply - side with an expected increase later, and its inventory is still higher than usual. The overall valuation is moderately low. For polyethylene, the operating load is gradually rising, and the upstream inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures fluctuated upwards, with the basis being relatively firm. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple device shutdowns, but shipments are still fast. In the inland area, both supply and demand are increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the shipment decreases [4][5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, with high inventory levels. The price is expected to be weak. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the demand is sluggish. Although there are expectations of increased exports, the overall supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to go short on PVC after a rebound [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - term long positions can be closed, and short positions can be taken after a rebound. For glass, the spot price is stable, but the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with the 01 contract following the delivery logic and the 05 contract remaining weak in the short - term [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term and should be treated with low - buying. PTA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are recommended. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value. Short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee on the disk should be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, it is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 [11]. Natural Rubber - The supply - side is supported by rising overseas raw material prices due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The demand - side has limited improvement in production capacity utilization. The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short forces, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500 [13]. Urea - Affected by the news of India's new round of tenders, the urea price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom - out and rebound in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 1650 - 1700 [15]. Crude Oil - After a rebound, the crude oil price is affected by geopolitical factors such as the situation between the US and Venezuela and the US - Russia talks. The inventory shows a slight reduction, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Brent crude oil should be monitored at the level of 60 dollars per barrel [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - For pure benzene, the short - term supply - demand is weak, but there are expectations of improvement later. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600. For styrene, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term [19]. LPG - The LPG price shows certain fluctuations. The inventory and operating rates of upstream and downstream are changing. The overall market situation needs to be further observed [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 and L2605 of LLDPE decreased, while PP2601 slightly increased and PP2605 slightly decreased. The basis and spreads of various varieties also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased, and social inventory decreased. PP enterprise inventory slightly increased, and trader inventory decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was stable, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased. PP device operating rate increased, and powder operating rate decreased [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis was relatively firm. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates also changed [5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **PVC**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of PVC increased. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply pressure remained, and demand was sluggish. There were expectations of increased exports [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Prices**: Prices in different regions and forms had different trends. The export profit increased slightly [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand pressure remained, with high inventory levels [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions were stable, and futures prices had minor changes [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [9]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices had small fluctuations [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand was bearish, with reduced demand from the float and photovoltaic ends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as crude oil and naphtha, and downstream polyester product prices all had different degrees of change [11]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory was expected to increase [11]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, changed [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was affected by the overseas situation, and demand was limited by the slow recovery of tire production and the weakening of replacement demand [13]. Urea - **Prices**: Futures prices increased, and spot prices in different regions had different trends [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by environmental inspections and the limited impact of India's tenders [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different trends, and the spreads between different varieties and months also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: EIA inventory decreased slightly [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the spreads and cash - flows had corresponding changes [19]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene port inventory was stable, and styrene port inventory decreased [19]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries decreased [19]. LPG - **Prices**: Futures prices of LPG had different trends, and the basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: Refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream refinery operating rate increased, and some downstream operating rates also changed [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is abundant and production profits are high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on spot market sales. It is expected that the inventories of both production enterprises and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term [2]. - The resumption of production by previously - shut - down enterprises drove the week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may conduct maintenance or reduce production in the later stage [2]. - The short - term forecast for the br2602 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,160 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 105,416, with a week - on - week increase of 4,360 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 58.92 US dollars/barrel, down 1.64 US dollars; WTI crude oil is at 55.27 US dollars/barrel, down 1.55 US dollars [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 535.63 US dollars/ton, down 10.12 US dollars/ton; the Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China butadiene price is 870 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,850 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.77 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 35,900 tons, down 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 tons, down 0.75 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 70.69%, down 2.84 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 349 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.2 tons, down 0.03 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 26,500 tons, down 600 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 5,450 tons, up 220 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, up 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, up 663,000 pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, up 1.81 percentage points week - on - week and down 8.49 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, up 0.55 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.07 percentage points year - on - year. The resumption of production by previously - shut - down enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 11, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.20 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons (- 1.18%) from the previous period. The inventory of some previously - shut - down production enterprises decreased significantly last week, but most production enterprises still faced high shipment pressure, and the overall inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly. Due to the continued price - pressing by downstream terminals, the shipment of traders was slow, and the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly [2].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]