Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Zinc shows a slight fluctuation [1] - Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,945 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,844.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73% [1] - **Trading Volume**: SHFE zinc main contract trading volume was 184,578 lots, down 66,827; LME zinc trading volume was 18,296 lots, down 111 [1] - **Open Interest**: SHFE zinc main contract open interest was 134,060 lots, up 746; LME zinc open interest was 184,683 lots, up 837 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -15 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium was 9 dollars/ton, up 19 [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 12,090 tons, up 1,002; LME zinc inventory was 116,600 tons, down 1,625 [1] News - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" has softened, but he and Bessent are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: PTA Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, crude oil decreased from $68.5 to $68.6, PTA internal spot price fluctuated around 4700 - 4785, and various spreads and margins also changed [2] - Market Situation: Near - term TA weekly operation remained stable, polyester load declined, inventory slightly accumulated, basis rebounded after liquidity shock weakened, and spot processing fee slightly recovered; PX domestic operation decreased slightly, overseas load increased, PXN strengthened slightly [3] - Outlook: TA enters the inventory accumulation stage but the absolute inventory level is not high. The slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fee is compressed to a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the far - month processing fee at low prices; PX overall inventory reduction trend has not reversed, and the valuation floor is still guaranteed [3] Group 3: MEG Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, MEG internal price increased from 4400 to 4490, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term EG domestic unexpected reduction increased, overseas Saudi devices stopped again. With the decline of phased arrivals, port inventory is expected to decrease. After the monthly structure repair, the basis weakened, and the benefit ratio further expanded [3] - Outlook: Supply - side unexpected reduction leads to a downward revision of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, the far - month valuation will rise correspondingly, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6680 to 6640, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: Near - term Xin凤鸣, Yuanfang, and Zhongtai reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 89.5%, sales decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn continued to decline, raw material inventory increased slightly, and finished product inventory continued to accumulate, with low benefits [3] - Outlook: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has no obvious reduction or increase. Domestic demand is weak while export growth is high. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased from 1755 to 1800, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, with a relatively low absolute level but no seasonal reduction; the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [3] - Outlook: The main strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 6: Styrene Analysis - Price Changes: From July 16 - 22, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, and other related prices and indicators also changed [3] - Market Situation: The prices of related products such as styrene and its downstream products changed, and the domestic profits of related products also showed different trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月 14日，美威胁在50天内对俄原油实施二级制裁。18日工信部宣布将推动包括石化行业在内的重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能的稳增长方案。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜略有好转，下游 需求整体弱势。当前LL交割品现货价7220（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-70，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.7万吨（+3.3） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA has a high production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The overall domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production decline was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase as the production season approaches. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating spot premium. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9680, with a basis of 119, indicating spot premium. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Includes import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26]. - **Demand**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年07月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡偏强 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期震荡偏强 | | • | 本周(20250711-0717)中国甲醇产量为1869725吨，较上周减少30003吨，装置产能利用率为82.69%，环比跌1.58%。本周国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，导致本周产能利用率下降。 | | 供应 | • | 下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量193.49万吨左右，产能利用率85.57%左右，较本期上涨。下周计划恢复涉及产能多于计划检修及减 | | | | 产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃方面，前期检修装置维持状态，青海盐湖烯烃 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Pigs**: Future two months are a seasonally tight supply period for pigs due to winter piglet diseases, and the July pig slaughter plan is reduced, which supports the pig market. However, the overall supply this year is relatively strong, with the national sow inventory in May at 40.42 million heads, only 0.38 million heads less than the peak in November last year, and still above the basic capacity of 39 million heads, limiting the upward movement of pig prices [2] - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a traditional seasonal off - season with weakening consumption demand. The high - temperature and high - humidity weather is unfavorable for egg storage, reducing channel purchasing willingness. Newly - laying hens are at a high - production stage. Although farmers have a high willingness to cull due to large losses, the supply - side capacity reduction has just begun, and the reversal point has not arrived. Egg prices have a rebound demand at low levels but are still in a bearish trend, showing a weak and volatile pattern [7] - **Soybean Meal**: As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also at a relatively high level over the years. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 169.5 million tons. The confirmed high - yield expectations in South America suppress the futures price to fluctuate weakly [9] - **Corn**: The spot price in the main production areas has weakened, and under the continuous decline of the futures price, traders' willingness to hold prices has weakened, and their willingness to sell at low prices has increased. Deep - processing enterprises are pressing prices for purchases. The corn inventory in the four northern ports, a barometer of inventory, has continued to decline from a historical high, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has also decreased. Affected by the import corn auction, the spot price has loosened, and the adjustment of the futures price on the disk continues [11] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Farming Capacity - **Pigs**: The sow inventory is in a green area, indicating a loose capacity [17] - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, with loose capacity [17] 3.2 Farming - end Demand - **Pigs**: The pig slaughtering start - up rate is running weakly [21] - **Eggs**: The downstream consumption is average [21] 3.3 Replenishment Prices - **Pigs**: The average price of piglets has been fluctuating weakly recently [24] - **Eggs**: The price of chicken chicks is high [24] 3.4 Basis - **Pigs**: Due to loose capacity and weak expectations, the futures price is weaker than the spot price, and the basis is oscillating at a high level [27] - **Eggs**: The basis shows a weak and volatile trend [27] - **Soybean Meal**: As the arrival of goods increases, the basis is falling [30] - **Corn**: The basis is running weakly [30] 3.5 Production Profits - **Pigs**: Pig - farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Eggs**: Laying - hen farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Soybeans**: The soybean crushing profit is currently running weakly [43] - **Corn**: The starch - corn price difference is weakly oscillating [43] 3.6 Inventory - **Soybeans**: With the increasing arrival of goods, soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is accumulating due to the recovery of the startup rate [36] - **Corn**: The deep - processing inventory has slightly declined due to less arrivals and strong price - holding willingness of traders; the overall inventory of feed enterprises has also slightly decreased this week [40] 3.7 Industry Terms - **Old Rice**: Usually stored in reserve warehouses for a long time, it can be used for processing fuel ethanol or feed, with a relatively low price. It is a good substitute for corn in feed use, and the auction rhythm of old rice has a certain regulatory effect on the corn market price [44] - **Secondary Fattening**: Farmers buy healthy pigs that have reached the normal slaughter weight (usually 200 - 250 pounds), fatten them for a period to increase their weight to 350 pounds or more, and then sell them to earn the price difference. This model has become popular after African swine fever [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows an increase in production by refineries, leading to increased supply pressure. The demand during the peak season has not recovered as expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [8][10]. - The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is complex (social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is increasing), the disk is neutral, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions [8][11]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2539000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 261200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.91%. The output of sample enterprises is 566000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 582000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base Price**: On July 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 192 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1312000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. Factory inventory is 763000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75% [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased [9]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises shows certain trends over time [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory has changed over time [48][49]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of asphalt shows different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The price of Merey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil have shown trends over time [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The production of local refinery asphalt has changed over time [58][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt has shown trends over time [61][62]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The estimated maintenance loss of asphalt has shown trends over time [63][64]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts (including total, social inventory, and factory inventory) have changed over time [66][69]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt have shown trends over time [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The factory inventory inventory ratio has shown trends over time [73][74]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of asphalt has shown trends over time, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt has also changed [76][77][80]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The petroleum coke production has shown trends over time [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt has shown trends over time [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales), has shown trends over time [88][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane) have shown trends over time [97][100][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt from January 2024 to July 2025 [106][107].