近期，脑机接口方向值得关注，5月17日，首都医科大学附属北京天坛医院脑机接口临床与转化病房揭牌成 立，该病房由北京天坛医院牵头，联合国内多家科研单位共建，未来将围绕脑机接口开展科研攻关、临床试 验，并推动相关科技成果转化，实现脑机接口技术发展从"科研驱动"向"临床牵引"迈进。据悉，这也是国内 第一个将脑机接口技术应用于临床的病房，东吴证券表示，侵入式技术持续突破，将推动消费和医疗康复市 场提升对脑机接口技术认知，2025年有望持续突破，非侵入式脑机接口产品商业化落地有望加速。 后市观点 长江证券资深投资顾问刘浪认为，回顾上周行情，市场延续震荡调整格局，量能始终未能有效放大，上周整 体维持在1万亿附近。值得注意的是，三大指数均缩量跌破5日线，原本震荡向上的结构遭到破坏，后续重新 放量站上5日线是关注重点。与此同时，近期市场高位抱团较为明显，若能走出具有足够延续性的新主线， 资金大概率会选择进行高低切。宏观面上，可重点关注以下事项： 并购重组方面：5月16日，证监会发布修改后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，建立重组股份对价分 期支付机制，提高对财务状况变化、同业竞争和关联交易监管的包容度，对私募投资基金投资期 ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走弱，美国零售增长放缓，贵金属价格企稳，铜价下探回升，昨日伦铜微涨 0.08%至 9600 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78490 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 925 至 184650 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.6%，Cash/3M 升水 14.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese non-ferrous metals industry showed stable growth in production during the first quarter of 2025, with refined copper output at 3.536 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and electrolytic aluminum output at 11.066 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 21.6% year-on-year, surpassing the national industrial investment growth by 9.6 percentage points, with mining investment up by 38.6% and smelting and processing investment up by 17.9% [1] - Revenue for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises reached 2.2293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while total profit was 91.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [1] Production and Investment - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is expected to continue growing, with an estimated increase of around 3% in the first half of the year [2] - The mining sector saw a significant increase in private investment, with a year-on-year growth of 52.2%, while smelting and processing industries experienced a 14.1% increase in private investment [1] Profitability and Economic Outlook - The profit margin for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises was 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with the mining sector's profit up by 62.3% and smelting and processing profit up by 33.6% [1] - The industry is expected to see a growth in added value of around 6% in the first half of the year, although there may be increasing disparities in profitability across different sectors [2]

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 13 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.08%至 78090 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识及相关贸易协议，结果超出市场预期， 全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，美元指数隔夜大涨，压制了隔夜有色金 属表现，铜价维持高位小幅震荡。现货市场，高月差、高铜价背景下， 下游企业入市采购情绪低迷，大多维持刚需采购为主，静待交割换月， 现货成交氛围较为清淡。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价继续回归 基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼厂产出后续存在下滑趋势， 不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小， 消费表现依然稳中有进，但高月差抑制了近期消费表现，铜价或继续维 持高 位震荡 。技 术上看 ，沪铜 短期维 持偏 强震荡 ，整体 运行于 74500-80000 之间，近期关注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 13 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 1.27%至 20005 元/吨。铝 土矿供应增长、价格逐步下行，几内亚铝土矿二季度长协价格修订，下 调至 75 美元/干吨。5 月 8 日，几内亚过渡政府宣 ...

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落。宏观方面，据美国财政部的最新数据，美国 4 月预算盈余 2584 | | | | | | | | 亿美元，上年同期为盈余 2095 亿美元；4 月份美国海关关税收入达到 163 亿美元，创 | | | | | | | | 历史新高，同比增长 92 亿美元，增幅达 130%，该数据在一定程度上缓解了赤字压力， | | | | | | | | | | | 预算赤字没有进一步扩大。另外，中美谈判取得超预期进展，中美各取消了共计 91%的 | | | | | | | | | 加征关税，暂停实施 24%的反制关税。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1025 吨至 190750 | | | | 吨。国内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步 | | | | | | | | | 放缓。中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将推动风险偏好继续回升，对铜而言有望短 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/13 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/13 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78260 9562 8.15 三月 77790 9538 8.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 - 现货出口 -67.18 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/13 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22770 2663 8.55 三月 22325 2691 6.31 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.71 -431.28 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/13 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 19810 2445 8.10 三月 19835 2451 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -1496.18 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/13 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 127300 15652 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.29 -4188.37 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/13 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16800 2003 8.36 三月 17000 1998 11.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.92 -1115.85 跨期 ...

期货热点追踪 交易员坦言市场紧张情绪未消！有色价格上涨是情绪修复还是需求反转？ 相关链接 ...

有色金属套利周报20250512 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跨 期 | 锌 | 调 ， 期影响 正 套 。 | 关税争端在气氛上有所缓和 炼厂扭亏为盈 ， 全年需求无大的亮点 剩端移动 ， | TC持续快速上 ， 受国内外锌矿山投产周 。 锌矿供给将周期性由紧转宽松 若 ， 供需平衡倾向于向过 ， 建议逢低滚动参与锌的跨期正套 | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出边际恢复 | 年内全球新投产 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 能限制 | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 基本面强于锌 ， 多铝空锌 。 | 而铝因国内产 ， 建议逢低滚动参与 ， | 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 第三部分：有色金属基差与期限结构 第四 ...