Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the 3700-point mark, leading to a significant shift in public sentiment towards the stock market, with expectations that it could reach 4000 points in the future [1] - The delay in tariffs has improved risk appetite among investors, reversing previous market pullbacks [2][3] - The geopolitical dynamics, particularly the recent handshake between the US and Russia in Alaska, have contributed to a resurgence in risk appetite and renewed buying activity in the market [6] Group 2 - The central bank is tightening monetary policy, indicating that the bond market has ended its bull run, with future performance dependent on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [9][10] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has not tightened its monetary policy, leading to a decline in the HIBOR 3M rate, which may increase capital flows to overseas and mainland markets [16] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by market rotation and the performance of companies like Cambricon, which has sparked renewed interest in the sector [17][19] - The market is characterized by a rotation among different sectors, with the need for patience to capitalize on these movements [19] Group 4 - There are signs of narrowing divergence in capital flows, with margin financing reaching new highs and ETFs experiencing inflows, particularly in broad-based ETFs [21][24] - If ETF inflows continue to accelerate, it could lead to a faster market rally, although this may be followed by corrections and consolidation phases [24][25]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the probability of a significant decline in the bond market is low, suggesting opportunities for allocation at high interest rate levels. Historical patterns show that since 2016, prolonged bull markets in stocks and bear markets in bonds have only occurred three times, driven by economic recovery and tightening liquidity [3][18] - The report forecasts that the yield on 10-year government bonds will remain in the range of 1.65% to 1.75% in the short term, recommending gradual allocation above 1.72%, prioritizing credit bonds over interest rate bonds and convertible bonds [3][18] Group 2 - The stock market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with incremental capital continuously entering the market. The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on large and mid-cap industry leaders, particularly in technology, new energy, cyclical sectors, pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend themes [4][19] - The report notes that the market's "money-moving" logic is strengthening, and the market's profitability effect is expanding, indicating a high probability of short-term gains. However, it also warns that the potential for high valuations in low-tier sectors has been released, suggesting a need to optimize existing holdings rather than chase high prices [4][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is expected to maintain its upward trend in the short term, driven by the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts. However, it also notes that any unexpected hawkish stance from the Fed could limit market buffer space [13][19] - The report emphasizes that the labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, which could heighten concerns about a "hard landing" for the economy, potentially disrupting the upward momentum of U.S. stocks [19][19] Group 4 - The report provides insights into the performance of domestic macro multi-asset models, indicating a year-to-date return of 7.77%, exceeding the benchmark by 4.33%. The Sharpe ratio for this model stands at 2.2550, significantly higher than the benchmark's ratio [26][27] - The global macro multi-asset model also shows a year-to-date return of 7.70%, with an excess return of 4.26% over the benchmark, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.8928, again surpassing the benchmark [26][27]

股债跷跷板又又又来了。 7月以来A股直接起飞，红红火火，"牛回速归"的呼声拉满；另一边，债市却开始了震荡，颗粒难收，收蛋党们集体emo…… 这熟悉的配方，一年总要循环播放几次。 面对股债的此消彼长，要不要把自己的钱搬来搬去？有没有什么简单的法子，能稳稳"拿捏"股债跷跷板？ 1.股债跷跷板——不建议单押哦 回看过去十年的股债代表指数，有六个时间段里，沪深300和中证全债的表现是相反的。 在大类资产轮动的规律下，不管是单押股市，还是"死磕"债券，都可能会轮流被市场打败。 2015年以来股债代表指数涨跌幅 | | 中证全债 | 沪深300 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2015 | 8.74% | 5.58% | | 2016 | 2.00% | -11.28% | | 2017 | -0.34% | 21.78% | | 2018 | 8.85% | -25.31% | | 2019 | 4.96% | 36.07% | | 2020 | 3.05% | 27.21% | | 2021 | 5.65% | -5.20% | | 2022 | 3.49% | -21.63% | | 2023 | ...

股债跷跷板又又又来了。 7月以来A股直接起飞，红红火火，"牛回速归"的呼声拉满；另一边，债市却开始了震荡，颗粒难收，收蛋党们集体emo…… 这熟悉的配方，一年总要循环播放几次。 面对股债的此消彼长，要不要把自己的钱搬来搬去？有没有什么简单的法子，能稳稳"拿捏"股债跷跷板？ 1.股债跷跷板——不建议单押哦 回看过去十年的股债代表指数，有六个时间段里，沪深300和中证全债的表现是相反的。 在大类资产轮动的规律下，不管是单押股市，还是"死磕"债券，都可能会轮流被市场打败。 2015年以来股债代表指数涨跌幅 | | 中证全债 | 沪深300 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2015 | 8.74% | 5.58% | | 2016 | 2.00% | -11.28% | | 2017 | -0.34% | 21.78% | | 2018 | 8.85% | -25.31% | | 2019 | 4.96% | 36.07% | | 2020 | 3.05% | 27.21% | | 2021 | 5.65% | -5.20% | | 2022 | 3.49% | -21.63% | | 2023 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, marking a new low in over four months; the 10-year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5-year contract dropped 0.08%, and the 2-year contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally rose, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 1.5 basis points, the 10-year government development bond "25 Government Development 10" yield up by 2 basis points, and the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield rising by 1.4 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 128.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 14, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remained stable, but the degree of easing showed slight contraction, with non-bank quotes slightly rising [2] Economic Fundamentals - As of the end of July, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year; narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [3] - In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan, with new RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and RMB deposits rising by 18.44 trillion yuan [3] - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market continues to be pressured by the equity market, with market sentiment not yet recovering [4] - Despite a generally loose liquidity environment, the bond market has not reached a downward trend phase, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.75% [4] - It is suggested to maintain a short-term wait-and-see approach, focusing on tax period liquidity and new bond issuance pricing [4]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that government bonds support the improvement of social financing, while an active stock market boosts M2 growth, downplaying the negative growth in monthly loans [1][16] - In July 2025, new social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major contributor [16][17] - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% in July 2025, driven by an active stock market and improved fiscal spending [16][17] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the comparative value of non-ETF component bonds in the sci-tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds for better liquidity and potential inclusion in ETF [1][18] - The analysis indicates that the credit spreads of non-ETF component bonds are generally higher than those of ETF component bonds, suggesting a larger selection of bonds with compression potential [1][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of sci-tech bonds in the context of market fluctuations and the potential for future inclusion in ETFs [1][19] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is compared to the supply-side reform, indicating a shift in focus towards new industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and high-end equipment [2][22] - The report notes that the current economic environment shows signs of structural and institutional overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [2][22] - The analysis suggests that the "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance quality development rather than merely reducing capacity, with a focus on market-driven measures [2][22] Company Recommendations - Jinlang Technology is projected to benefit from increased demand in Europe and Asia, with a forecasted net profit growth of 68% in 2025 [8] - Upme Holdings is expected to achieve significant profit growth through its multi-brand strategy, with a projected net profit increase of 42.3% in 2025 [9] - Nasda is recognized as a leading domestic printer manufacturer, with a focus on enhancing competitiveness through R&D investments [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock market may experience intensified volatility after continuous gains, but the general direction is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with interest rates generally trending downward in the long - term. [3][6] - Metal prices show different trends. Copper prices may be strongly volatile in the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, zinc prices have a large downward risk, lead prices have a short - term decline risk, nickel prices have a callback pressure, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. [10][11][13] - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all face certain uncertainties and are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment. [25][27][28] - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber prices should be observed neutrally, oil prices have a good left - hand layout opportunity, methanol prices are recommended to be observed, urea prices can be considered for long positions at low levels, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean meal, vegetable meal, oils, sugar, and cotton all have different trends and trading strategies, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [56][57][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15; 152 energy - storage enterprises advocate against involution; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issue a joint statement on the market fluctuations of stablecoins; the US PPI in July increased significantly compared with the forecast and the previous value. [2] - Basis ratio of stock index futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are given. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may be volatile in the short - term, but the general direction is to go long on dips. [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. [4] - News: The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting and believes there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut; the UK's GDP in the second quarter increased better than expected. [4] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. [5][6] - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the interest rate is expected to trend downward in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21. [7] - Market outlook: The US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were cautious, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, considering factors such as US debt interest payments and government intervention, the Fed is likely to implement further easing, and it is recommended to wait for price corrections to go long. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given. [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic equity market, the copper price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with support from tight raw material supply and pressure from increased supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given. [10] Aluminum - Market: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of domestic inventory accumulation, the aluminum price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support from low domestic inventory and strong external demand, and pressure from weak downstream consumption and unstable trade situations. The reference operating ranges for domestic and LME aluminum are given. [11] Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined on Thursday. The zinc ore is in a loose supply situation, the domestic zinc ingot is in a surplus situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is gradually receding. The zinc price still has a large downward risk. [12][13] Lead - Market: The lead price declined on Thursday. The lead ore inventory at ports increased in August, the production rates of primary and secondary lead increased, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased again. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the short - term lead price has a certain decline risk. [14] Nickel - Market: The nickel price declined and adjusted on Thursday. Affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the market's interest rate cut expectations, the non - ferrous metal sector was under pressure. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron market sentiment improved, but the surplus pressure still existed. The refined nickel spot trading was still sluggish. The short - term nickel price may have a callback pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given. [15] Tin - Market: The tin price declined and adjusted on August 15. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end is still under raw material supply pressure in the short - term. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and LME tin are given. [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, and the futures price also increased slightly. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased this week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply improvement is the focus of the market, and it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the right entry point. The reference operating range for the futures contract is given. [18] Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined on August 14. The domestic and overseas ore supply is disturbed, but the alumina production capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to short at high levels when the short - term market sentiment cools down. The reference operating range for the domestic futures contract is given, and factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies need to be concerned. [19] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price declined on Thursday. The spot prices in some markets also declined, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased, and the market trading sentiment was not high. The stainless steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. [20][21] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The futures contract of cast aluminum alloy declined on Thursday. The spot price was stable, and the downstream demand was mainly rigid. The inventory increased slightly. The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. [22] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on Thursday. The export volume decreased slightly this week, and the demand for rebar decreased significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of both is in a marginal increase state, and the steel price may decline if the demand cannot be effectively repaired. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of cost. [24][25] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price declined on Thursday. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron water production increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price may be adjusted slightly in the short - term, and the contradiction between high iron water production and weak terminal demand needs to be concerned. [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment cooled down. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on factors such as anti - involution policies and real estate demand. [28] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase space is limited. [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined on August 14. The market is affected by factors such as anti - involution and supply - side policies, and it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can choose the right opportunity. The manganese silicon industry is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand for ferrosilicon and the black sector may weaken in the future. [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon increased on Thursday. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the implementation of anti - involution policies needs to be concerned. [34][35] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon declined on Thursday. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the impact of warehouse receipts on the price needs to be concerned. [36][37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. The long and short sides have different views. The operating rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased. The rubber price has risen a lot in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations. [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, while INE crude oil price declined. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore increased, and the fuel oil inventory decreased. The oil price is considered to be undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. [43] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the port inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. [44] Urea - Market: The urea futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizer and export, and the inventory is still at a medium - high level. The urea price is undervalued, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels. [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost end has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate upward with the cost end. [46][47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price declined on Thursday. The cost end decreased, the production increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price declined on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The valuation is relatively high, and the price may decline in the short - term. [49] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price declined on Thursday. The supply may increase in August, the demand is about to end the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate. The PXN spread has upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX when the peak season demand improves. [50][51] p - Xylene - Market: The p - xylene futures price declined on Thursday. The production increased, the downstream PTA short - term overhaul increased, and the inventory may decrease. The valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil in the peak season. [52] Polyethylene - Market: The polyethylene futures price declined. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the cost end has support, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [53] Polypropylene - Market: The polypropylene futures price declined. The production may increase due to the rebound of refining profit, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost end may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July. [54] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price fluctuated on Thursday. The market is stable, and the price is expected to be stable today. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and it is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity for far - month contracts. [56] Eggs - Market: The egg price was mostly stable on Thursday. The supply is large, and the price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term egg price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds. [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The USDA's reduction of the soybean planting area has a positive impact, the import cost of soybeans has increased, the price of rapeseed meal has declined, and the price of soybean meal has increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal surplus situation, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to factors such as supply pressure and Sino - US tariffs. [58][59] Oils - Market: The prices of the three major domestic oils declined on Thursday. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, Indonesia has distributed a large amount of biodiesel, and the import of Indian vegetable oil has changed. The oils are supported by policies and low inventory, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view the price fluctuation. [60][61][62] Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The international sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic import supply will increase in the future, and the price is expected to decline. [63] Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The USDA report is positive, and the Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to domestic cotton. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. [64][65][66]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the US CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 2.8%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, matching market forecasts [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and reaching the highest level since February [1] - The US non-farm employment data for July significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, which supports the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] Group 2: US National Debt - The US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion for the first time, with a significant increase in customs tariff revenue, which rose to $28 billion in July, a 273% increase year-on-year [3] - The fiscal deficit for July reached $291 billion, a 10% increase from the previous year, with interest payments alone amounting to $91.9 billion [3] - The burden of interest payments on the national debt is increasing, prompting calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate fiscal pressure [4] Group 3: Regional Economic Performance - The economic data for 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta shows Shanghai leading with a GDP of 26,222.15 billion yuan, while Zhoushan recorded the highest GDP growth rate at 6.9% [5] - A total of 34 cities in the region reported GDP growth rates above the national average of 5.3%, with 17 cities exceeding 6% [5] - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and digital economy are contributing significantly to the economic growth of major cities, while smaller cities are also experiencing positive growth [6] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In Guangzhou, seven real estate projects have initiated a "price guarantee" program, promising to compensate buyers for price drops, which aims to stabilize buyer expectations amid rising price pressures [7] - The effectiveness of the "price guarantee" measures is questioned due to operational limitations and the requirement for buyers to provide proof of price drops [8] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Perplexity AI has made a $34.5 billion offer to acquire Google's Chrome browser, a move that could significantly enhance its competitive position in the AI browser market [9] - Despite the ambitious bid, the financial strength of Perplexity AI may not be sufficient to compete with larger tech giants like OpenAI, which have also shown interest in acquiring Chrome [10] Group 6: Corporate Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with net profit rising by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan [11] - The company is focusing on a "rational return" strategy, managing supply to stabilize prices and channels while achieving significant growth in international revenue [12] Group 7: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing adjustments as the stock market reaches new highs, with the 30-year Treasury yield touching 1.99% [13] - The shift of funds between the stock and bond markets indicates changing investor sentiment and expectations regarding economic fundamentals [14] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a nearly four-year high, with significant trading volume and a diverse range of market sectors showing activity [15][16]

Group 1 - In July, China's social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, down from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous month [1] - The new loans to the real economy in July were negative at -0.43 trillion yuan, compared to 2.36 trillion yuan previously [1] - For the first seven months of 2025, the total social financing scale increased to 23.99 trillion yuan, up from 22.83 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The personal consumption loan market is seeing increased demand, with banks offering loans at a minimum interest rate of 3%, and rates for quality clients expected to drop to the "2" range following the implementation of a new subsidy policy [2] - Major state-owned banks and several joint-stock banks are participating in the consumption loan subsidy program, with some banks planning to implement these measures by September 1 [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a four-year high of 3682 points, while long-term government bond yields experienced significant volatility, with the 30-year bond yield touching 1.99% [3] - The bond market is undergoing adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising approximately 12 basis points since its low point [3] Group 4 - The Financial Times cautioned against overemphasizing monthly credit data fluctuations, suggesting that such data may not accurately reflect the economic activity or the financial support for the real economy [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to adapt their strategies to the changing economic landscape, focusing on effective credit demand in emerging sectors [4] Group 5 - Longfor Group announced the early redemption of 2 billion yuan of its medium-term notes, with a coupon rate of 3.00% [5] Group 6 - Road King Infrastructure Limited has suspended all offshore debt payments due to insufficient consent from bondholders for proposed amendments [6][7] Group 7 - The issuance of perpetual bonds by banks has exceeded 1 trillion yuan this year, driven by the need for capital replenishment amid economic pressures [8] Group 8 - Gold prices have recently declined, falling below the $3400 mark, influenced by the easing of tariff concerns [9] - The gold price fluctuated around $3365 after a brief recovery [9] Group 9 - Thirteen wealth management companies reported mixed performance in their asset management business, with some experiencing significant growth while others saw declines [10] Group 10 - Geely's financing leasing company reported a net loss of 157 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in credit impairment losses [11] Group 11 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a high likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, citing weak employment data [12] Group 12 - The cost of default insurance for euro-denominated junk bonds has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, reflecting increased investor interest in risk assets [13][14]