Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December fell short of expectations, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in precious metal prices. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and initiated a reserve management - type balance - sheet expansion. With the weakening of US economic data, the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. Due to concerns about potential US tariffs on platinum and palladium imports, their prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data to be released on Tuesday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US December non - farm payrolls fell short of expectations, increasing interest - rate cut expectations and providing liquidity support. Gold prices rose, with the US gold closing at $4,518 per ounce last Friday, up 4.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,580, and the lower support level is $4,460. Silver prices also rose due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot. The weekly gain was 10.4%, closing at $79.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $76 and an upper resistance level of $83 [6][9]. 2. Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December were lower than expected, and the precious metal prices continued to be strong. The Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet. The slowdown in the US employment situation and the weakening of economic data suggest that the mid - term price centers of gold and silver will move up. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple macro - economic indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [15][17][19]. 4. Current Week's Important Economic Data - The actual values and expected values of US December economic data are presented, including non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP employment, and ISM non - manufacturing PMI [24]. 5. Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased. It is expected that the Fed will pause interest - rate cuts in January and from January to May, and may cut interest rates 1 - 2 times after the new chairman takes office. The US is discussing the option of acquiring Greenland [25]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2,832.02 kg to 1,129,427.74 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 51 kg to 97,653 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312,057.22 kg to 13,677,468.74 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 71,376 kg to 620,262 kg [13][30]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 6, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 213,743 contracts, a decrease of 5,756 contracts from last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 28,532 contracts, a decrease of 127 contracts from last week [13][34]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On January 13 (Tuesday) at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released; on January 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate and November PPI annual rate will be released; on January 15 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 will be released [36].

更值得关注的是，黄金已不再单纯依赖美联储降息逻辑，而是进入"信仰驱动"的更高阶段：只要全球秩 序的不确定性未消，黄金的配置价值便不会下降。2026年的黄金行情，本质上已超越传统宏观交易范 畴，成为一场对"旧世界秩序信任度"的集体投票。 只要伊朗骚乱、格陵兰争议、关税大棒、美元武器化等任一维度持续发酵，黄金便难现系统性顶部。 5000美元或许不再是天花板，而只是下一个心理关口。 本周市场还需重点关注：周二将公布美国12月CPI报告，周三将发布10月及11月PPI数据，以及被称 为"恐怖数据"的11月零售销售数据;同时，地缘局势相关消息也需持续跟踪。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 从黄金日线走势来看，当前呈现强势多头反转形态，近5个交易日录得6阳1阴，三连阳走势不仅完全覆 盖12月29日大阴线的跌幅，更确认了涨势重启信号，后市多头动能将持续释放，新高突破是核心主线。 摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1025.74 元/克，涨幅1.39%，最高上探至1031.87元/克，最低触及1011.21元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨 走势。 今日周一(1月12日) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trends in gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and changing investment regulations, indicating a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1008.54 CNY per gram, up by 0.8% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 4574.1 USD per ounce, increasing by 1.63% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - **Central Bank Purchases**: DBS Bank strategist expects gold prices to reach 5100 USD per ounce by the second half of 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a shift away from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3]. - **Investment Regulations**: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation to 1100 CNY, requiring investors to have a risk rating of C3 or above to open a regular investment account, reflecting the current high volatility in gold prices [4]. - **Global Central Bank Trends**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with a target of 7415 million ounces by the end of 2025. Global central banks have purchased 297 tons of gold in the first 11 months of 2025, with over 70% of surveyed banks planning to increase gold allocations in the next five years [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - **Silver**: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - **Palladium**: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - **Lead**: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - **PTA**: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - **MEG**: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related**: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - **Sugar**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].

经济基本面与结构性因素的博弈进一步加剧了美元走势的复杂性。美国经济仍展现出一定韧性，美联储 已将2026年实际GDP增速预测上调至2.3%，AI产业繁荣与财政扩张政策持续注入增长动力，吸引全球 资本流入，构成美元"安全垫"。但与此同时，全球经济增长动能对比正在转变，市场对欧元区等非美经 济体复苏预期升温，当全球增长引擎更加多元时，美元需求相对减弱。更关键的是，"去美元化"趋势带 来结构性压力，美国关税政策与财政可持续性疑虑削弱了美元信用，2025年各国央行及私人投资者持续 增持黄金对冲美元风险，现货黄金价格全年飙升逾70%，这种"弃美元、购黄金"的趋势在2026年可能延 续，进一步压制美元长期走势。 除核心因素外，多重扰动变量可能引发美元指数阶段性反弹。其一，非美经济体紧缩进程或受限，日本 面临高债务与内需疲软的双重约束，欧洲经济存在结构性难题，其货币政策正常化步伐可能放缓，若紧 缩力度不及预期，将间接利好美元。其二，美元避险功能仍不可忽视，尽管"去美元化"是长期趋势，但 目前暂无单一货币能全面替代美元的储备和结算功能，若2026年全球地缘政治或贸易摩擦升温，美元作 为传统终极避险资产的地位可能凸显，吸引资金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for precious metals lies in the choices of sovereign funds against the backdrop of de - dollarization. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts, a significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts, and a sharp drop in domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU - **Viewpoint**: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - **Fundamentals**: Include the Venezuela situation (US military action, leadership changes, oil supply, and sanctions), Trump's plan to acquire Greenland and related international reactions, US initial jobless claims data (208,000 in the week ending January 3rd, lower than expected), and non - farm payroll report (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate in December, 584,000 increase in 2025) [2] Silver AG - **Viewpoint**: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to those of gold, covering the Venezuela situation, Trump's plan for Greenland, US economic data such as initial jobless claims and non - farm payrolls [3] One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - International events include the Venezuela "three - hour lightning war", Yemen military conflict, Iran's handling of internal unrest, OPEC+ decision on production suspension, Samsung and SK Hynix's plan to raise server memory prices, and high - tech developments like Qualcomm's robot technology [6] - US economic data includes ADP employment increase of 41,000 in December (lower than expected), initial jobless claims of 208,000 in the week ending January 3rd (lower than expected), 2025 October trade deficit of $29.4 billion (the smallest since June 2009), and non - farm payroll details (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate) [6] - Political events involve Trump's various threats and plans, such as threatening Cuba, planning to acquire Greenland, and discussing the next Fed chairperson [6] Gold Market Tracking - **Positions**: The latest long - position of COMEX gold futures and options managed funds is 122,450 contracts, short - position is 35,978 contracts. SPDR gold ETF holding is 862 tons, iShares gold ETF holding is 402 tons, and the futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands [7] - **Changes**: In 5 days, the long - position ratio decreased by 4%, short - position ratio decreased by 1%, and the futures position increased by 16,492 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 5,556 contracts, short - position increased by 2,599 contracts [7] Silver Market Tracking - **Positions**: The latest long - position of COMEX silver futures and options managed funds is 44,277 contracts, short - position is 27,801 contracts. SLV silver ETF holding is 13,802 tons, and the futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands [12] - **Changes**: In 5 days, the long - position increased by 57 contracts, short - position increased by 58 contracts, and the futures position increased by 78,420 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 4,423 contracts, short - position decreased by 4,757 contracts [12] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit rates are presented in a time - series graph from July 2024 to December 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [18] Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long - position and total futures position data are presented in a time - series graph from June 2025 to January 2026, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [20] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - CBOT non - commercial net long - positions of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total futures position of US Treasury bonds, are presented in time - series graphs, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [25] US Inflation Expectation - Break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented, with values ranging from 2.20 to 2.50 [30] US Real Interest Rate - US Treasury real - yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from February 2006 to August 2025 are presented, with values ranging from - 3.00 to 5.00 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [35] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread between the US and Major Non - US Countries - Yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented. For example, the spread between the US and the UK ranges from - 0.60 to 0.10 [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Re - testing new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Demand expectations are strengthening, leading to price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Operating in a relatively strong manner [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][14]. - Tin: Oscillating and strengthening [2][16]. - Aluminum: The price center has significantly moved up; Alumina is driven by capital risk preference; Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price [2][20]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, with range - bound oscillations [2][22]. - Palladium: After surging, it declined. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][22]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillations [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][27]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,006.48 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 1008.54 with a 0.80% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18757 with a 1.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 19438.00 with a 6.19% increase [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,653 kg (unchanged), and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3 to 1,064.56. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 17385 kg to 620,262 kg, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 93 to 16,308.48 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have listened to military strike plans [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,410 with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 102220 with a 0.80% increase. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading price increased by 2.07% to 12,966 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2,531 tons to 111,216 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 133 to - 977 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected output of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23970 with a - 0.02% change, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.57% to 3149 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 599 tons to 38874 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 107450 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread increased by 7.5 to - 36.5 [11]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and Canada was worried about US economic actions [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17395 with a 0.35% increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.49% to 2046.5 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Lead inventory increased by 2321 tons to 16188 tons, and the London Lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons to 222725 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 2.55 to - 44.05 [14]. - **News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high, and December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 352,540 with a 0.83% increase, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a 3.15% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 4.64% to 45,700 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 359 tons to 6,429 tons. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 5,300 to 349,750 [17]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and the UK considered deploying troops in Greenland [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24330, and the night - session closing price was 24465. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2843, and the night - session closing price was 2835 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons to 49.78 million tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 71.80 million tons [20]. - **News**: There was a debate about AI, and countries were hoarding strategic materials [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Platinum 2606 futures was 599.80 with a 4.31% increase, and the Palladium 2606 futures price increased by 8.32% to 499.05 [22]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 260 ounces to 624,755 ounces. The Platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,775 ounces to 3,284,543 ounces [22]. - **News**: There were various geopolitical events such as the situation in Thailand, Israel - Gaza, and the UK's consideration of Greenland deployment [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the Chinese government imposed export license management on some steel products [27][28].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold market** and its historical context, particularly focusing on the dynamics of gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty and inflation concerns [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand for Gold**: The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset significantly increases during times of global economic and political uncertainty, outperforming risk assets like stocks [1][2]. - **Historical Context**: Historical bull markets in gold have been driven by global political, economic, and technological cycles. The gold standard provided monetary stability, while the collapse of the Bretton Woods system shifted gold's role to an inflation hedge [1][2]. - **End Signals for Gold Price Uptrends**: Indicators that a gold price uptrend may be ending include effective control of high inflation, reduced risk aversion, emergence of new economic growth drivers, and changes in macroeconomic indicators and policies [1][5][6]. - **Gold ETF Impact**: The introduction of gold ETFs has enhanced the flexibility and accessibility of gold in asset allocation, lowering investment barriers and significantly increasing liquidity and investment functionality [1][8][9]. - **Market Reactions to Crises**: During the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, heightened risk aversion and low-interest environments led to rapid increases in gold prices, with central banks becoming net buyers [1][10]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Bull Markets**: Key periods that propelled gold bull markets include the 19th-century gold standard, the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971), and the high inflation environment of the 1970s, where gold prices surged significantly [1][4]. - **Third Bull Market Characteristics**: The current bull market, which began in 2018, has seen a twofold increase in gold prices, driven by factors such as U.S.-China trade tensions, global health crises, and a trend towards de-dollarization, with central banks increasing gold purchases [1][12]. - **Gold Price Trends (2012-2022)**: From 2012 to 2022, gold prices experienced a bear market due to rising real interest rates, contrasting with previous bull markets where gold prices were inversely related to real rates [1][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the gold market, its historical significance, and the factors influencing its price dynamics.

2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属月报 地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 18 | 图表 | 1 近 5 年 | | SHFE 金银价格走势 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 近 5 年 | | COMEX 金银价格走势 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美债利率走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 5 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美 ...

电解铝 ：宏观基本面共振 铝价实现开年红 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 宏观：地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，资金流入推动价格上涨。后续关注美国就业数据及美国对对等关 税的裁决。同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、 铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所走弱，但下游仍逢低积极备货，出库端无显著异动。光伏出口退税取消，一季度抢出口窗口期预计对铝需求 有一定影响。 ◼ 库存：本周铝锭及铝棒社库厂库合计109.61万吨，环比显著增加，但增量主要与期现基差较大、存套利机会有关，后续预计仓单有所增 加。 ◼ 交易逻辑：铝在供给端全球持续存缺口且供给弹性较低、需求端在能 ...