Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with the European shipping index increasing by over 10% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG) and styrene (EB) have both risen by over 4% [1] - Butadiene rubber and bottle chips have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - In terms of declines, polysilicon has dropped by nearly 2% [1] - Urea has decreased by nearly 1% [1]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market may return to fundamental trading after the initial progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, while steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions in steel products [1][4]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - demand structure is strong, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - For coking coal and coke, even with high molten iron production, they remain weak. If molten iron production peaks, they will face greater pressure, and the supply is relatively loose [1][10][13]. - For ferroalloys, the port inventory of manganese ore is expected to rise, and the cost support for ferrosilicon is weakening, with relatively high inventory levels [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products Threaded Steel - **Variety View**: The market may return to fundamental trading. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, and steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions [1][4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern, but the medium - term is still considered weak [1][5]. - **Price Range**: [3070, 3130] [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen. Exports are still high but may decline later [1][4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Macro news has limited boosting effect. It will continue to be weak in the medium - term and may be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [1][5]. - **Price Range**: [3200, 3260] [1]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel enterprise profits, and the supply - demand structure is currently strong. However, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term unilaterally and hold the inter - period positive spread [8]. - **Price Range**: [710, 750] [1]. Coke - **Variety View**: Even with high molten iron production, coke remains weak. If molten iron production peaks, it will face greater pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and it may enter a volatile market after continuous decline [1][10]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Volatile [11]. - **Price Range**: [1440, 1485] [1]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: The delivery pressure makes the coking coal market re - evaluate the delivery cost. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand may peak. After continuous decline, it may enter a bottom consolidation phase in the short - term [1][13]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Volatile [14]. - **Price Range**: [850, 890] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to rise. The industrial fundamentals need further improvement, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in low - cost areas. The cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in the delivery warehouse has not been relieved [1][16]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The rebound height may be limited due to weak fundamentals, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [17]. - **Price Range**: [5700, 5950] [1]. Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, but the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed [1][16]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to operate within a range [17]. - **Price Range**: [5450, 5750] [1].

2025 年 05 月 14 日 工业硅：整体弱势基本面 多晶硅：市场消息扰动，关注现货报价 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2506收盘价（元/吨） | 8,230 | -90 | -95 | -1,320 | | | | Si2506成交量（手） | 330,600 | 81,535 | 61,128 | 148,595 | | | | Si2506持仓量（手） | 162,299 | -9,326 | -17,237 | -1,450 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2506收盘价（元/吨） | 38,270 | -180 | 1,860 | - | | | | PS2506成交量（手） | 321,982 | -826 | 241,539 | - | | | | PS2506持仓量（手） | 52,252 | -17,16 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

智通财经5月14日电，COMEX黄金期货涨0.96%，报3259美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨1.47%，报 33.105美元/盎司。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.8万吨，环比有所减少1.44%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比增长19.64%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库存为25.7万 吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为105000吨，处于低位，有机 硅生产利润为-301元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.11%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.47万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为702元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为516.79元/吨，再生铝开工率为55%，环比增加4.76%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3555元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月12日，华东不通氧现货价9000元/吨，06合约基差为680元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.6万吨，环比减少1.16%,样本企业库存为264900吨，环比增加1.44%,主要港口库 存为13.3万吨，环比减少2.20%。 偏空。 4 ...

期货热点追踪 市场情绪明显改善，库存低位提供价格支撑，沪铜期货能否重回8万上方？ 相关链接 ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/13 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 870.50 | -19.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1447.00 | -24.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 485608.00 | +30759.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 54407.00 | +1128.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） ...