Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, and the absolute value of social inventory is still low, which is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio. However, the domestic price increase lacks fundamental data support, and a short - term callback after the sentiment may occur, but the callback depth is limited. If the destocking of social inventory goes smoothly, the aluminum price is expected to break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply of bauxite is under pressure, the smelting loss has not improved, the supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, the pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the price is undervalued, there may be disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a change of 285 yuan/ton. The highest price was 22,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,292 lots, and the open interest was 446,659 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,742 tons, with a change of 924 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, with a change of 9,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,925 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,825 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 17 yuan/ton (0.60% change). The highest price was 2,847 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,811 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 299,017 lots, and the open interest was 407,444 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. Propylene spot prices rebound after hitting the bottom, and the futures market is slightly supported to rebound. The supply - demand gap narrows, but the overall supply remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still high. The downstream demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited. The short - term price may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and capacity utilization rate, propylene oxide production profit and capacity utilization rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [39][40][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - factory inventory and PP powder in - factory inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - Low inventory and tight ore costs support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a pullback after a surge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The price range is between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,605 yuan/ton, closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 61,405 lots, an increase of 5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 43,468 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,815 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,575 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,705 yuan/ton, closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, some lead brands were sold at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. The futures price continued to fluctuate strongly, but downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the intention to take delivery decreased significantly [2] Inventory - On November 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 13, the LME lead inventory was 223,975 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern remaining. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential nickel price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is in the consumption off - season, with inventory starting to accumulate and the cost center shifting downwards. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Directory Summaries Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2512 opened at 119,000 yuan/ton and closed at 118,930 yuan/ton, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,848 (-17,400) lots, and the open interest was 112,711 (-4,118) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern with shrinking volume and reducing positions, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Due to weak fundamentals, the rebound momentum was weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, some terminals in the Surigao mining area were still recovering from typhoon weather, and the shipping efficiency was delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron decreased, and iron plants continued to lower their psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium was +26. The Indonesian government announced a 2026 RKAB quota of 3.19 billion tons, but the actual situation depends on next year's policy changes [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The enthusiasm for spot inquiries improved, and downstream buyers made on - demand purchases. The spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 3,800 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 32,694 (870) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,970 (-144) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The inventory is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential price rebounds. For single - side trading, range - bound operations are recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,470 yuan/ton and closed at 12,475 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,571 (+32,719) lots, and the open interest was 150,646 (-4,171) lots. It showed a narrow - range downward oscillation, similar to the trend of SHFE nickel. Entering the consumption off - season, the stainless - steel inventory showed a slight accumulation trend this week, and the futures market was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained in a wait - and - see state, and the spot trading was light, with on - demand purchases as the main mode. Affected by the downward shift of the cost center and trading conditions, the spot price continued to explore the bottom. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (-75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,800 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 290 - 590 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 907.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to the arrival of the consumption off - season, inventory accumulation, and the downward shift of the cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [4].

油料日报 | 2025-11-14 豆一需求清淡价格维稳，花生关注产区上量与油厂动向 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4129.00元/吨，较前日变化+2.00元/吨，幅度+0.05%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-49，较前日变化-2，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情整体平稳，优质大豆价格依然坚挺，且受政策收储支撑，短期内豆价 仍有一定支撑力，其中高蛋白品种价格走势相对更强。目前农户销售意愿尚可，多根据市场行情调整出货节奏， 部分存在一定惜售心理。与此同时，粮食贸易企业收购较为谨慎，多数企业已有一定库存，但往销区的走货速度 相对偏缓。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but there is potential for inventory accumulation in the domestic market. It is recommended to focus on the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to maintenance, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene. The inventory accumulation pattern may continue, but the loss of butadiene production profit may limit future output [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,390 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,400 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 93,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million units after November [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Rubber imports: In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - Passenger - car market: In October, the retail volume of the domestic passenger - car market was 2.242 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 units, and the cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million units [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 540 yuan/ton (- 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 610 yuan/ton (+ 90), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.33 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.13), Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10) [5] -开工率: The all - steel tire production rate was 64.29% (- 1.08%), and the semi - steel tire production rate was 72.99% (+ 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+ 345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+ 100), etc. [7] -开工率: The production rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+ 3.91%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+ 1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+ 80) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply-side production scheduling has decreased, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9235. The inventory is bearish, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, the basis is bullish, and the disk is bullish [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand-side production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows a continuous recession, cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53405 - 54985. The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polycrystalline silicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.74%, and the demand continued to be sluggish. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, at a low level; the silicone inventory was 56,300 tons, at a low level; the alloy ingot inventory was 728,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the dry season increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25%. The planned production in November was 120,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.54%, and the inventory was 175,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.44%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 57.66GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92% compared with the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 50.90%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 58.68GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.60%. The estimated component output in November was 46.92GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory was 35.4GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: Before the Chinese New Year, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [4] - **Pulp**: Although the pulp price is boosted by macro sentiment, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upside space is restricted. Attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,614 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [1] - **Import Data**: In September, Thailand imported 8,023 tons of cotton, a 11.4% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year decrease. From August 2025 to July 2026, Thailand's cumulative cotton imports were about 17,000 tons, a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. The United States was the largest source of imports, accounting for 54.5%, followed by Australia (28.6%) and Brazil (9.0%) [1] Market Analysis - **International**: In late October, China and the United States reached a phased consensus, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, improving the macro sentiment. However, due to the US government shutdown, key industrial data were postponed. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, supply pressure is being released, and weak global textile consumption limits the upside of the outer market [2] - **Domestic**: As the cotton harvest progresses, the expected new - cotton output has declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. But new cotton is still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand is weak [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Policy News**: Mexico has imposed a new tariff on sugar imports. All types of sugar are subject to a 156% tariff per kilogram, and refined sugar is subject to a 210.44% tariff. Previously, the tariff was 360 - 390 US dollars/ton [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Brazil's exports are strong, and India's production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Although there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase in the new season, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and stricter syrup control policies support the price in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5,534 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.95%) from the previous day [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China imported 2.618 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. From January to October, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the previous year [5] Market Analysis - **Supply**: In September, European pulp port inventories declined month - on - month but remained high. Domestic pulp imports increased in September, and port inventories have been high for a long time, with the supply situation remaining unchanged [5] - **Demand**: Pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and global pulp mills face inventory pressure. Domestic demand is weak, and although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating. Steel prices are also fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Iron ore prices have slightly increased with the rebound of hot metal production, while the price of thermal coal has a complex situation with different trends in production areas, ports, and imports [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3254 yuan/ton. The production, demand, and total inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and spot trading was average. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and demand slightly rebounded. However, there may be a weakening of demand in the off - season. The production of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly. The contradiction in strip steel lies in high inventory and production, and export profit losses suppress steel prices, requiring production cuts to resolve the contradiction. Future attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, inventory, and raw material cost support [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices slightly increased. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%. This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2660 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments have continued to decline this week, showing a loose supply situation. With the end of production restrictions in Hebei, hot metal production has been supported, and the current average daily hot metal output has rebounded to a high level over the years. The current relative valuation of the Platts iron ore index is relatively high, and iron ore prices face downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trending direction in the short term under the support of downstream replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and negotiation situations [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures declined. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas slightly decreased steadily. The coke spot market continued to be strong. For imported Mongolian coal, due to the significant decline in the futures market, port prices were under pressure to adjust downward. Currently, the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to around 1100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal has dropped to around 1210 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, market sentiment has slightly weakened, rigid demand has declined, and supply has been cut to varying degrees, resulting in a simultaneous tightening of supply and demand. For coking coal, terminal demand has been suppressed, and with the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, prices are fluctuating. Future attention should be paid to the price trend of thermal coal, coking coal supply, steel mill production cut plans, and macro - policies [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate, and coke is also expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In production areas, the prices of main - producing areas have slightly decreased. As the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and some coal mine prices have slightly adjusted downward. Currently, coal mine inventories are not high, and port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, port shipments have increased, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching, and trading activity is low. Traders expect a tight supply - demand situation in winter and maintain firm quotes, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, intensifying the game between buyers and sellers. In terms of imports, the imported coal market has been trending steadily and strongly recently. Imported coal has an obvious price advantage, and terminal users are concentrated in purchasing imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and imported coal prices have followed the upward trend, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: Not provided [7]