FMC (FMC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 01, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Curt Brooks - Director of Investor RelationsPierre Brondeau - Chairman & CEOAndrew Sandifer - Executive VP & CFOAleksey Yefremov - MD & Equity ResearchJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorChristopher Parkinson - Managing DirectorRonaldo Pereira - PresidentBenjamin Theurer - Managing DirectorRachel Lee - Equity Research AssociateVincent Andrews - Managing DirectorFrank Mitsch - President Conference Call Participants Edlain Rodriguez - E ...

PVC月报： 季节性去库阶段，关注低估值修复行情 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/4/30 季节性去库阶段，关注低估值修复行情 行情复盘：本月V2509波动区间【4901，5273】，宏观情绪弱势主导盘面走势，价格重心显著下移 。4月3日，基本面边际改善，盘面冲高回落；4月9日，清明节后悲观情绪继续发酵，盘中创下阶段 性低点；4月22日，主力移仓换月，盘面增仓11万手领跌期市。基本面看，烧碱现货价格继续下跌 ，氯碱一体化成本支撑好转。西北依靠资源成本优势，整体利润仍处中性水平。外采电石及乙烯装 置持续处于亏损状态，但尚未传导至生产端，春检力度不及预期，1-17周产量累计同比+3.8%，厂 内库存高于去年同期水平。BIS认证窗口期，出口持续以价换量，1-3月出口累计同比+56%，显著 超出市场预期。出口好转带动社会库存7连降。5月台塑报价持平，略好于市场预期。 【下月展望】 季节性检修旺季，关注政策预期带动下的低估值修复行情。5月基本面供需双弱，库存 或 继续下滑 ， 现货价格易涨难跌。供给端，天辰化工、新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, achieving operating income of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year, although it fell short of its targets for revenue and profit [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Gujinggongjiu's revenue reached 23.578 billion yuan, marking a 16.41% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [2] - The company did not meet its initial targets of 24.45 billion yuan in revenue and 7.95 billion yuan in profit [2] Group 2: Quarterly Trends - The company's growth rate showed a declining trend throughout the quarters, with a 1.2% year-on-year decline in net profit in Q4 2024, marking the first negative growth in recent years [4] - The decline in performance is attributed to the overall destocking cycle in the liquor industry, leading Gujinggongjiu to control inventory to stabilize channel prices [4] Group 3: Market Strategy and Competition - The core product "Gu20" saw its terminal price drop below 500 yuan per bottle, which raised concerns about profitability as it accounts for nearly 30% of the company's revenue [4] - The company’s national strategy remains a key issue, with the Central China region contributing 20.151 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 85% of total revenue, while growth in North and South China was significantly lower [4] - Competitors like Shanxi Fenjiu have achieved faster national expansion through differentiated strategies, while Gujinggongjiu still relies on traditional large merchant models, indicating weaker channel control [4] Group 4: Cost and Dividend Policy - High sales expenses have also impacted Gujinggongjiu's profits, with sales expenses reaching 4.823 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 25.29% of revenue, which is significantly higher than peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - The company declared a total dividend of 2.643 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 47.91%, the highest in its history, which boosted investor confidence but raised concerns about cash flow sustainability for national expansion [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2025, the liquor industry is expected to remain in a phase of stock competition, and Gujinggongjiu's ability to maintain its domestic market while breaking through barriers in external markets will be crucial for achieving its goal of reaching 30 billion yuan [5] - The Q1 2025 report showed revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.38%, and net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78%, indicating a slowdown compared to 2024 [5]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 优于大市 第一季度收入增长 12%，新厂爬坡拖累毛利率 部分新客户表现优异销量增长带动收入增长双位数，新厂爬坡拖累毛利 率。2025 年第一季度公司实现营业收入 53.53 亿元，同比增长 12.3%，主要 受阿迪达斯、昂跑、NB 等新客户订单销量增长驱动；归母净利润 7.62 亿元， 同比下滑 3.2%。毛利率同比下滑 5.5 百分点至 22.9%，主要受新投产工厂效 率爬坡影响，继 2024 年上半年和下半年各投产 2 家成品鞋工厂之后，2025 年第一季度 2 家成品鞋工厂已经投产。期间费用率同比优化 2.0 百分点，其 中财务费用率同比下降 0.6 百分点至-0.5%，主要受益于汇兑收益增加，今 年 Q1 汇兑收益为 900 万，去年同期损失 1700 万；此外管理费用率同比-1.5 百分点至 3.7%。在毛利率承压影响下，营业利润率同比-3.4 百分点至 17.6%， 归母净利率同比-2.3 百分点至 14.2%。 销量保持高个位数快速增长，新老客户结构更加均衡。拆分量价来看， Q1 销售运动鞋 0.49 亿双，同比+8.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data reflects the impact of tariff shocks, indicating that the previous "export rush" has come to an end, with significant declines in both manufacturing PMI and new export orders, surpassing the declines seen in 2018 [1] Dimension 1: Direct Impact - The new export orders index for April PMI dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking a decline much steeper than the -2.7 percentage points seen during the lowest growth rates between 2018-2019 [5] - High-frequency data also shows a clear decline in export container freight rates to regions such as the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and South America in April, signaling the end of the "export rush" [5] Dimension 2: Indirect Impact - The PMI new orders index, representing domestic demand, fell to 49.2% (down 2.6 percentage points), while the PMI production index dropped to 49.8% (down 2.8 percentage points), both falling below the growth threshold and contributing to the overall decline in manufacturing PMI [11] Dimension 3: Corporate Behavior Impact - As demand weakens, companies are more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory, with the PMI finished goods inventory index decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3% and the PMI production expectations index falling by 1.7 percentage points [13] - The PMI ex-factory price index also declined by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on inflation [13] Dimension 4: Employment and Expectations Impact - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the PMI employment index and production expectations index may be more significant and longer-lasting than the direct effects on exports [16] - The PMI employment index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, aligning with the political bureau's emphasis on "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing enterprises," and "stabilizing expectations" [16] Dimension 5: Impact by Enterprise Type - In April, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.2%, 48.8%, and 48.7% respectively, with declines of 2.0 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points, indicating a downturn in business sentiment across all sizes, particularly among small enterprises [17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI at 51.9% (down 1.5 percentage points) and the services PMI at 50.1% (down 0.2 percentage points), both at historically low levels [20] Policy Implications - The tariff shocks reflected in the PMI data suggest that policy measures may need to prioritize "stabilizing livelihoods" over "total countermeasures," with a focus on targeted structural policies for affected enterprises expected to be accelerated [22]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 生猪：阶段性去库开启，等待节后印证 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao023978@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14750 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14400 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15590 | | -50 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2505 | 元/吨 | 14000 | | 25 | | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13450 | | -35 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13930 | | -200 | | | | | ...

市场在调整，现在赣州入市的纯新楼盘越来越少了。 2025年第一季度已经结束，赣州主城区纯新楼入市盘似乎仅有 2 个。 一是位于三江口水西组团的三江匯雲頂，这个盘于 2025 年 1 月 18 日首开，推出 3#5#9#11#12# 楼，共 174 套精装房源； 相比之下，去年一季度赣州主城区入市的纯新盘达到 5 个。 在以去库存为首要任务的当口，新盘入市数量锐减。 新盘数量减少与土拍市场的变化不无关系，土地拍卖作为新房供应的主要源头，近几年大幅减少直接导致开发土地资源的缩减，也导致新房项目数量骤 降。 而且随着楼市持续调整，不仅土地供应节奏放缓，房企拿地还更加谨慎了，普遍聚焦在核心城市的核心地段（除国企之外，稍偏一点的地块可能就没企业 敢要了）。 据小编不完全统计，2023年赣州主城区含住宅用地成交21宗，而2024年则仅成交9宗（其中还包含稀土集团配套人才房和章江新区18位人买家拍下的地 块） 另一处则是位于老城区市场存在感极低的的迷你盘——东城翰林府邸，春节期间开的盘，优惠后单价 6 字头起，该项目仅 2 栋住宅，94 套房源。 2025 年开年至今，赣州主城区尚未有一宗含住宅的土地拿出来正式挂拍（近期赣 ...

导 语 地市供求规模延续同比缩量，专项债提速助力供给侧加快"优结构、提质量、稳市场"。 ◎ 文 / 马千里 2025年4月，土地市场成交规模同比降幅进一步扩大。据月末快报数据，4月土地成交建筑面积同比下降 23%，降幅较上月全月扩大了12个百分点；成交环比3月同期上升50%，主要是由于3月基数过低所致。截 至4月25日，本月土地供应建筑面积4354万平方米，环比上升2%，同比下降27%。随着非核心城市土地 成交占比上升，本月平均溢价率9.9%，重新降至10%以下，但一二线城市平均溢价率分别为13%和14%， 已经连续4个月双双高于10%。4月份以来，中央和地方持续积极推进稳市场新政落地，强调进一步释放 房地产市场潜力， 协同推进政策实施和预期引导， 据自然资源部本月内发布的不动产登记相关数 据，"交房、交地即交证"等土地开发流程改革亦在快速推进。 供求： 延续同比低位， 截至2025年4月25日，本月土地供应建筑面积4354万平方米，同比下降 27%，环比上升2%。成交2698万平方米，同比下降23%，环比上升50%。 。 热度 ： 核心城市热度延续。 平均溢价率为9.9%，回落至10%附近，主因三四线等非热 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/4/29 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/4/25 | 2025/4/28 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4415 | 4585 | 170.00 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4188 | 4210 | 22. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨126至6176。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4400 | 4480 | 80. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格稳中有涨,贸易商价格偏暖, | | MEG收盘价 | 4160 | 4190 | 30. 00 | 下游按需采购,场内成交有限。1.56dtex*38mm | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6375 | 6460 | 85. 00 | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6 ...