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光大期货能化商品日报-20250430
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 05:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - **Asphalt**: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - **Polyester**: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - **Rubber**: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - **Methanol**: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].
能源日报-20250429
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 13:44
| 《八》国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月29日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ななな | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 文女女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 儒夜国际油价回落,亚盘时段偏弱运行,SC2506含约日内跌2.14%。油价经历了贸易战悬跌和修复式反弹后步入 稳态,后期重点关注供需超预期变化的可能。需求端近期汽柴油裂解走强带动海外族厂利润修复,关注临近油 品消费旺季炼厂开工需求受到支撑的持续性,中美贸易战无明确向好迹象前预计需求利多的演绎空间受限;供 应端OPEC+增量释放,以及俄乌、伊核、巴以地练缓和带来的供应抗动风险弱化仍有边际演绎空间,上周 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 07:52
| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...
《有色》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Supply side is gradually being repaired, but demand outlook is pessimistic. Maintain a bearish stance on tin price rebounds and focus on the pace of supply - side repair [1]. Zinc - In the short - term, pay attention to the TC increase and refined zinc expansion speed. In the long - term, adopt a short - selling strategy. The main price range is expected to be between 21,500 - 23,500 [3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term price may fluctuate. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term price is under pressure near 20,000 yuan/ton, and may face downward pressure as it enters the off - season [5]. Copper - Copper fundamentals present a "strong reality + weak expectation" combination, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Focus on macro - driving signals, with the main pressure level at 77,000 - 78,000 [6]. Nickel - Macro situation is temporarily stable, but there is still uncertainty. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [8]. Stainless Steel - The price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the game between cost and demand. The main operating range is 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is bearish, with the price expected to remain weak. The main reference range is 65,000 - 70,000 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 260,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% [1]. - SMM 1 tin premium dropped by 20% to 800 yuan/ton [1]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss increased to 10,657.77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.57% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 71.43% to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons [1]. - SMM refined tin March output increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons [1]. Inventory - SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 3.36% to 9,249 tons [1]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% [3]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - March refined zinc output increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons [3]. Inventory - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 7.63% to 8.59 million tons [3]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% [5]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 197 yuan/ton [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - March alumina output increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons [5]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.46% to 64.30 million tons [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 77,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% [6]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss decreased to 355 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - March electrolytic copper output increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons [6]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.07% to 15.51 million tons [6]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 125,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [8]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Futures import loss increased to 4,178 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [8]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons [8]. - SHFE inventory decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons [8]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [10]. Raw Material Price - 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 0.15% to 668 yuan/nickel point [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons [10]. Inventory - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.53% to 54.42 million tons [10]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 68,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [12]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 160 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - March lithium carbonate output increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons [12]. Inventory - March lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons [12].
《能源化工》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:07
聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...
PTA、MEG早报-20250428
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:42
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 1、基本面:周五,市场交易重心转移至5月,贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商有出货。4月底少量在05+15~20有成交,个别 略高在05+30。5月上主流在09+40附近成交,个别略低在09+20~30成交,略高在09+45成交,5月底在09+45有成交。5月中下个 别主流供应商在09+35~50有成交。今日主流现货基差在05+19。中性 5、主力持仓:净空 空减 偏空 6、预期:PTA自身装置检修兑现下延续去库,但下游终端需求仍受美国关税影响,且随着仓单流出PTA现货市场流通性尚可, 短期内PTA现货基差上行受阻,价格则跟随 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250424
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 15:16
大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人:车红云 期货从业证号:F03088215 投资咨询从业证号:Z0017510 研究员:王伟 期货从业证号:F03143400 投资咨询从业证号:Z0022141 研究员:陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号:F03107034 投资咨询从业证号:Z0018401 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号:F03129697 投资咨询从业证号:Z0020351 联系方式: 上海:021-65789219 北京:010-68569781 1.期货:今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元,跌幅 0.5%,沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货:铜价震荡下行但仍处高位,下游接货需求有所减弱,成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨,较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨,天津报贴水 10 元/吨,下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨,持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四,全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨,较上周四 下降 5.1 ...
有色商品日报-20250416
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-16 05:06
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 4 月 16 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 | LME 铜下跌 0.91%至 9137 美元/吨;SHFE 铜下跌 0.17%至 7583 元/吨;现货进口 维系亏损。宏观方面,海外方面,纽约制造业整体商业状况指数上升 11.9 点至-8.1, | | | | 好于预期值-13.5,尽管有所缓和,但也制造业活动连续第二个月萎缩,未来订单信心 指数暴跌至 2001 年以来最低水平,显示对未来经济衰退的担忧。美国财长贝森特逐渐 | | | | 主导关税政策,关税或更加聚焦。另据媒体报道,欧盟预计美国针对欧盟的大部分关税 | | | | 将维持现状,双方目前谈判几乎没有取得进展。国内方面,政府提到将以更大力度促进 | | 铜 | | 消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环,进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。库存方 | | | | 面来看,LME 库存增加 4650 吨至 212475 吨;Comex 库存增加 586 吨至 109242 吨; | | | | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2840 吨至 9220 ...
有色商品日报-20250410
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 02:48
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 4 月 10 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜尾盘大幅走高,上涨 3.6%至 8897 美元/吨;SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.01%至 72490 元/吨,预计国内开盘将大幅拉升;国内现货进口窗口打开。宏观方面,美关税 | | | | | 阴影下,海外金融市场再次陷入巨震,有色一度表现偏弱,不过在特朗普宣布暂停部分 国家对等关税延后实施 90 天后,美股快速冲高,并带动商品市场情绪大幅回暖。国内 | | | | | 方面,关注金融市场表现,股市是国内短线情绪风向标。库存方面,LME 铜库存下降 | | | | 铜 | 1525 吨至 211925 吨;SHFE 铜下降 11375 吨至 97393 吨;BC 铜下降 646 吨至 21907 | | | | | 吨。需求方面,高铜价风险释放并回稳,下游预计存在积极补库动作。美政府未能顶住 | | | | | 金融市场大幅波动压力,宣布暂缓实施,虽然中国未能豁免,但美此轮政策弱点及颓势 | | | | | 开始显现,这也令市场 ...
中辉期货日刊-2025-04-01
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-01 05:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual investment outlooks for different varieties, including "strengthening," "oscillating," "rebounding," "weakening," and "going short at high levels" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple varieties in the commodity market, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, and methanol. It provides core views, basic logics, and strategy recommendations for each variety, along with price ranges [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Strengthening [1] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances, such as the tense relationship between the US and Iran, the unexpected decline in US crude oil production in January, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the continued US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have led to a rise in oil prices [1][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium to long - term, there is a strong downward pressure on the oil price center after the third quarter due to the supply - surplus situation. In the short - term, the trend is strong, and short - position holders should be cautious. SC is expected to be in the range of [545 - 560] [5]. LPG - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The upward pressure on oil prices has increased after continuous rebounds. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed, with a decrease in commodity volume on the supply side, high port inventories, and a recent decline in downstream profits [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the strengthening of upstream crude oil and no major driving forces in the fundamentals, it is expected to oscillate. Technical indicators show short - term oscillation. Long - position holders should take profits, and bull spread options can be sold. PG is expected to be in the range of [4600 - 4700] [9]. L - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil is strong, the parking ratio has decreased significantly, and social inventories have decreased slightly. However, supply exceeds demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production is high [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short at high levels. L is expected to be in the range of [7600 - 7740] [12]. PP - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The parking ratio remains high. In the short - term, it follows the cost - end and shows strength. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production restricts the upward space [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7260 - 7360] [15]. PVC - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened slightly, social inventories have declined from a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being cancelled in March. The market is oscillating at a low level. The regular spring maintenance from April to May is about to start [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks. V is expected to be in the range of [5020 - 5140] [18]. PX - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance volume of downstream PTA is high. The improvement in supply - demand is limited. The crude oil price has stabilized recently but is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing but remains high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PX is expected to be in the range of [6850 - 7020] [21]. PTA - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to ease. The downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. The inventory is slightly high [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, but the rebound height may be limited. TA is expected to be in the range of [4830 - 4930] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The recent increase in device maintenance has not effectively alleviated the supply pressure due to high imports. The demand is good but is expected to weaken. The cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recent market is oscillating weakly, and range - bound operations are recommended. EG is expected to be in the range of [4440 - 4520] [27]. Bottle Chips - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to device capacity expansion. The soft - drink market is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PR is expected to be in the range of [6010 - 6080] [30]. Glass - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic data has improved, the supply has declined from a low level, the terminal demand is weakly recovering, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The market is undervalued near the coal - based cost, and there is intense capital game [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1220] [33]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The spring maintenance is nearly over, and the supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the speculative demand is insufficient. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased from a decline, and the absolute inventory level is high [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1370 - 1400] [35]. Methanol - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based methanol devices are entering the spring maintenance stage, but the maintenance volume is lower than expected. The supply pressure remains high. The methanol arrival volume is lower than the same period, but overseas devices are gradually resuming, and the future arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand is continuously improving, but downstream feedback needs attention. The social inventory is decreasing [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. MA is expected to be in the range of [2470 - 2520] [1]. Urea - **Core View**: Go short at high levels [1] - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing seasonally but remains slightly high. The cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The current daily production of urea remains high, and the industrial demand is expected to weaken. The agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still loose, and chasing the rise should be cautious. UR is expected to be in the range of [1840 - 1880] [1].