Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term due to a combination of factors such as a tight supply of raw materials, a marginal stabilization of processing fees, and a weakening in consumer resilience, along with support from a rapid decline in LME's available registered warehouse receipts and high positions in near - month contracts of SHFE copper approaching delivery [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upward potential. Although the mood of economic and trade negotiations is positive and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, the US's increase in tariffs on imported aluminum products has put pressure on demand expectations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak as downstream consumer demand continues to decline, while the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - Zinc prices may decline further. With an oversupply of zinc ore, an increase in the profit of zinc smelters, and weak terminal consumption, if there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may continue to fall [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of a looser supply, there is still significant short - term uncertainty, and downstream enterprises have a strong demand for low - price procurement [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term outlook is bearish. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [9]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs. With continuous disturbances in the ore market and an over - capacity situation, it is recommended to short at high prices lightly [13]. - The stainless - steel market will continue to face pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, weak demand, weakened cost support, and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 1.01% at $9,768/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,330 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 10,000 to 122,400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 34,000 tons. Domestic social inventory was basically flat over the weekend [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, processing fees are marginally stable, and consumer resilience has weakened [1]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at high levels, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,650 - 9,850/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 1.28% at $2,483/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.6 million to 53.0 million lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 48,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 477,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Economic and trade negotiations have a positive impact on sentiment, and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, but the US's tariff increase on imported aluminum products has affected demand expectations [3]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to have limited upward potential, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,450 - 2,500/ton [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16,764 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $9 to $1,981.5/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 41,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,900 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises are promoting sales at reduced prices, consumer demand is weak, the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to remain weak [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 2.22% at 21,795 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $34.5 to $2,655.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 2,100 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 81,700 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, the profit of zinc smelters has increased, and terminal consumption is weak [6]. - **Price Forecast**: If there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may decline further, and attention should be paid to the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin main contract closed up 0.05% at 263,740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 116 tons to 6,904 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,440 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: There may be a reduction in tin ore imports in June, and the processing fees of tin concentrates remain at a historical low. Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and the acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [8]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000/ton [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed down 0.27% at 121,950 yuan/ton, and LME main contract closed down 0.81% at $15,365/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information provided. - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel iron prices have rebounded, intermediate products are in short supply, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen [9]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term is bearish. It is advisable to short at high prices after a rebound, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 60,537 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: Lithium salt production is at a high level, and downstream production growth is limited, resulting in high inventory pressure [11]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. Alumina - **Price**: No specific price data provided. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 90,400 tons [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore market, and the over - capacity situation is difficult to change [13]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 2.06% to 1.1223 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.71% to 680,600 tons [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, along with weakened cost support and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. - **Price Forecast**: The market will continue to face pressure in the short - term [15].

Report Title - Benzene Ethylene Weekly Report: EB: Supply-demand margin weakens, inventory stops falling, focus on raw material resonance opportunities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although there is a strong expectation of OPEC+ production increase, the macro - environment is stable, and the peak season boosts, so oil prices maintain a volatile trend. On the pure benzene side, both domestic supply and demand increase, but supply increases more than demand. Due to the non - opening of the America - Asia arbitrage window and the successive return of maintenance devices in Japan and South Korea, high imports are expected to continue. The destocking of pure benzene port inventory is difficult, with relatively large year - on - year pressure, which drags down the styrene price. For styrene, weekly supply increases while demand decreases. Some upstream devices will resume production in June, and some downstream sectors enter the off - season. There are pressures in terms of profit and inventory on the 3S side, so it is difficult to effectively drive the styrene price. Styrene inventory stops falling and accumulates this week, and is expected to enter a volatile stage, mainly focusing on the absolute year - on - year level. Currently, the estimated valuation of styrene is still high. Considering the fundamentals of pure benzene, the valuation regression probably requires a downward correction of styrene. Therefore, maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, pay attention to raw material resonance opportunities in terms of rhythm, and be vigilant against macro risks [3] Strategy Recommendations Futures Strategy - Maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near - month contract at 7400 [4] Option Strategy - Sell EB2507 - C - 7500 [4] Summary by Directory Pure Benzene 2025 Production and Investment Plan - Multiple companies in different provinces have plans for pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong has a 100 - million - ton pure benzene production plan from 2024Q4 - 2025 and a 50 - million - ton styrene production plan in 2025Q1 [6] 2025 May - July Device Dynamics - Many companies' devices have maintenance plans from May to July 2025, such as Hubei Jin'ao's device, which stopped for maintenance on March 11 and is expected to restart in mid - May [8] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - From May to July 2025, the planned new pure benzene production capacity is about 1.33 million tons/year, and the downstream new production capacity is about 400,000 tons/year. The planned pure benzene shutdown involves a production capacity of 4.46 million tons/year, and the downstream shutdown production capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. The net supply reduction is about 239,000 tons, and the net demand reduction is about 341,000 tons. Overall, inventory is expected to accumulate [9] Price and Profit - The prices of pure benzene in different regions and the price differences between different regions are presented in the report. The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low [15] Downstream Situation - The weighted downstream operating rate of pure benzene has recently declined slightly. The styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43] Styrene and Its Downstream Spot and Futures - The spot price, basis, and monthly spread of styrene are presented in the report [53] Supply - The monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit of styrene are shown. Asia has multiple styrene device exits, and China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70] Inventory - Styrene port inventory has stopped falling and continued to accumulate [71] Downstream Situation - The 3S production capacity growth rate is high, intensifying industry competition. The estimated weekly styrene consumption converted from 3S production has decreased. The downstream prices have weakened, and the profits are under pressure. The high - production inventory is higher year - on - year, indicating possible demand transmission resistance. After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand should focus on subsidy stimulation [76][81][92]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

2025.6.9-6.13 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，6月中下旬偏承压。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 6月云南地区电力储备充足，电解铝供应预计仍稳中有增，需求虽有政策宽松 预期升温+中美元首通话释放缓和信号，但暂时对需求提振作用仍有待观察。 2 暂观望为宜。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 本周美国经济活动放缓叠加国际贸易摩擦风险，铝价短期承压震荡概率较大；铝合金因传统季节性淡季特征逐步显 现并深入，海内外订单均有缩量，导致市场交投整体清淡。 数据来自：WIND、钢联、长城期货交易咨询部 端午前后一周沪铝2507合约看19800-20500区间整理，观望 或短波段交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看19600-20200。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 正常购销即可 【重要产业环节价格变化】 | 项目 | | 上周 | 本周 | 上月同期 | 上年同期 | 周环比 | 月环比 | 年环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝土矿SI2-3%几内亚（美元/干吨 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on Friday due to a stronger US dollar, but concerns over short-term supply and ongoing inventory drawdowns limited the losses [1][3] - As of June 6, LME three-month copper closed at $9,693 per ton, down $46.50 or 0.48% [2][3] - LME copper inventory decreased by 5,600 tons or 4.06%, reaching a one-year low of 132,400 tons [3] Group 2 - The US labor market showed better-than-expected job growth in May, with 139,000 new jobs added, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [3] - The US Department of Labor revised down employment data for March and April, which offset the positive outlook for May [3] - The market is awaiting results from an investigation into copper imports by Washington, which may lead to tariffs on copper imports [3] Group 3 - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.5% increase in copper inventory this week after a period of low levels last month [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $27.50 or 1.11%, closing at $2,450.50 per ton [5] - Following President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, the aluminum premium in the US market surged to a record high of $1,378 per ton [5]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to limited upside and downside space, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors like tariff hikes, the decline of photovoltaic installations, and the arrival of the off - season [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but are likely to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of June 5, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Tariff issues add negative sentiment. The upstream copper concentrate market is quiet, and the TC price is stable. The Kankola mine earthquake may impact supply. Downstream demand is average, and post - holiday copper price upside is limited, but so is the downside [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 5, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract closed at 20,010 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The Guinea AXIS mine is restricted, and its impact on imports will be seen in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is also rising. Demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][3]. - **Nickel**: As of June 5, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract closed at 121,570 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The Indonesian nickel ore market is tight, but downstream demand is weak, and the overall situation is one of supply surplus, with prices expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Tin**: As of June 5, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract closed at 258,900 yuan/ton, up 1.47%. The price rebounded due to slower - than - expected resumption in Myanmar. Supply is improving but limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [5]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market was quiet with low demand and limited future demand growth [6]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum prices fell, and the market was bearish. Sellers accelerated sales, and demand was mainly for basic needs, resulting in light trading [7]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices were stable, and the market was moderately active, with limited demand growth [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, and the market was quiet, with high premiums supporting sellers [9][10]. - **Lead**: Spot lead prices rose, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with high discounts for sellers [10][11]. - **Nickel**: Spot nickel prices fell, and downstream buyers were cautious, leading to low trading activity [12][13]. - **Tin**: Spot tin prices rose, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc futures warehouse receipts increased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **LME**: Copper, tin, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while lead and zinc inventories increased [16].

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]