Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges of pricing old shares in the context of a slowing IPO market, highlighting that selling old shares has become a significant exit strategy for investors [1][2] - There is often a discrepancy between the selling price desired by investment managers and the price that the market is willing to pay, leading to difficulties in closing transactions [4][5] - Investment managers tend to have a "reluctance to sell" mentality, wanting to sell at higher prices, which can hinder the negotiation process [3][4] Group 2 - Many Limited Partners (LPs), especially state-owned ones, express concerns about selling shares at perceived low discounts, complicating the exit process [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding whether LPs' concerns stem from a genuine belief in higher project value or from internal decision-making processes [9] - The current market conditions have led to significant valuation adjustments, with many companies now facing steep discounts compared to previous inflated valuations [7][8] Group 3 - To assess the true value of old shares, the article suggests abandoning the anchor effect of previous valuations and focusing on what investors are willing to pay [10][12] - It is crucial to recognize that market valuations often include additional conditions that may not reflect the true value of a company [14][15] - The article points out that valuations are typically determined by a small number of investors rather than a broad market consensus, making it essential to avoid rigidly adhering to past valuations [16][17] Group 4 - The lack of liquidity in the market significantly impacts the valuation of old shares, as low trading volumes can lead to inflated perceptions of value [18] - The article argues that without liquidity, the established valuations may not hold true, making it challenging to determine appropriate discount rates for old shares [18]

7月1日，"全国乡村大市场"暨未来鑫生活平台在遵义市汇川区团泽镇梦润集团总部正式启动。此次活动 采用线上线下（300959）联动的创新模式，全力打造乡村特色产品展销平台，助力乡村振兴，推动"黔 货出山"。 活动现场，团泽镇副镇长管横霄满怀激情地表示："乡村振兴，产业兴旺是关键。此次活动为我们搭建 了绝佳平台，将有力推动乡村特色产业发展，促进城乡资源高效流动。我们团泽镇将全力支持，以实际 行动助力活动圆满成功，为乡村振兴注入强大动力。" 活动现场福利多多，依托未来鑫生活平台，面向市民定向发放5万元现金消费红包，可即时用于平台消 费。消费补贴还可参与抽奖，赢取乡村特色大礼包与文旅体验券。同时，活动通过直播带货、短视频推 广、现场打卡等多元化形式，展示商家特色产品与服务，提升乡村品牌的知晓度与影响力。 "未来鑫生活平台致力于乡村振兴，通过扶持各地农特产品、赋能实体商家，拉动消费带动经济发展。 后续还计划在城市综合体周边持续开展此类活动，活动周期为7天至20天，用实实在在的优惠激发消费 潜力。" 梦润集团执行总裁、未来鑫生活总顾问王大嘴介绍道。 据了解，此次活动预计首期带动500家数字店铺入驻，拉动消费2000万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent resignation of star fund manager Yu Yang from two funds managed by Wutong Fund has sparked significant industry attention, raising concerns about the career paths of star fund managers, talent mobility in the public fund industry, and performance pressures [1][6]. Group 1: Manager Resignation - Yu Yang's resignation was anticipated, as he had been gradually stepping back from managing his funds since March, with co-managers being appointed to both funds prior to his departure [2][6]. - After his resignation, the management of the funds will be taken over by Lin Qing and Zhang Hong, respectively [2]. Group 2: Career Background - Yu Yang began his career in 2011, combining academic and practical experience, with a strong background in pharmaceutical investment [3]. - He joined Wutong Fund in 2015 and achieved remarkable returns, including a 138.63% return on the Wutong New Power Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund during his initial management period [3][4]. Group 3: Performance Issues - Following his return to Wutong Fund in December 2021, Yu Yang's performance did not meet market expectations, with a cumulative loss of 11.29% during his management of the Wutong New Power fund [5]. - The management scale of his funds significantly decreased, from 76.60 billion yuan to 40.74 billion yuan, indicating a near halving of assets under management [5]. Group 4: Industry Trends - Yu Yang's departure reflects a broader trend in the public fund industry, where the number of fund manager resignations has increased, indicating deeper changes within the industry [7]. - The industry is moving away from reliance on star fund managers towards a more team-based and platform-oriented investment research system, as emphasized by regulatory guidance [7][8].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.75%. Alibaba Health dropped nearly 5%, and AIA Group fell nearly 2% [1] - According to Zhongtai International, the technical bull market pattern for Hong Kong stocks is clear in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the market under supportive policies and improved US dollar liquidity in the second half of 2025 [1] - Earnings per share for the Hang Seng Index are projected to grow by 8.5% and 8.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the market, with southbound capital likely to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market is expected to show a trend of "oscillation upwards + structural differentiation" in the second half of the year, driven by macro policies focusing on high-quality development, technological innovation, and domestic demand [2] - Annual net inflow of southbound funds is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, continuously improving liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好，短期 内降息概率不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着税期因素逐渐消退，市场流动性由 6 月末的紧张状 态转向宽松状态，近期央行开始公开市场净回笼流动性，以避免资金在金融系统内空转。从整体宏观 环境来看，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，内需内生性增长动能不足， 外需收到关税因素的冲击，国债期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong biopharmaceutical market is experiencing a significant resurgence in IPO activity, with a notable increase in both the number of companies going public and the total amount of capital raised in the first half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: IPO Activity - In the first half of 2025, 10 biopharmaceutical companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, compared to only 12 for the entire previous year [1] - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors accounted for the highest number of IPOs, with 6 companies in biopharmaceuticals and 4 in medical devices and services [1] - A total of 39 healthcare companies are currently waiting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] Group 2: Fundraising and Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector raised 15.6 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, making it the second-highest fundraising sector during this period [2] - Heng Rui Medicine raised 9.89 billion HKD, representing a significant portion of the total fundraising in the sector [2] - The IPO of Heng Rui Medicine was the largest in the Hong Kong medical sector in nearly five years, with a subscription rate of 454.85 times [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The influx of southbound capital has significantly improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with net purchases reaching nearly 730 billion HKD in 2025, the highest for the same period in history [7] - Southbound funds now account for over 40% of trading volume in the Hong Kong market, indicating their growing influence on market pricing [7][8] - The biopharmaceutical sector's valuation has rebounded to near three-year highs, with innovative biotech companies seeing an overall increase of approximately 70% [8] Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Moves - Many biopharmaceutical companies are facing urgent financing needs due to high R&D costs and ongoing losses, leading them to pursue IPOs as a necessary funding avenue [9][10] - The trend of dual listings in both A-share and H-share markets is becoming more common, as companies seek to broaden their financing channels and enhance international visibility [5] - Despite the positive trends, the overall IPO market remains fragile, with concerns about post-listing stock performance and limited financing scale [10]

7 月利率展望：震荡格局下波段为主，关注大会增量 20250703 摘要 6 月债市整体震荡，实债收益率小幅下降至 1.65%左右。央行超预期买 断式逆回购操作呵护流动性，中美关税谈判及地缘政治冲突影响市场情 绪。月末银行季末考核压力导致债市小幅震荡走弱，但整体略走牛。 央行两次买断式逆回购操作净投放超 2000 亿，一年期国债收益率下降 超 10 个基点至约 1.35%，期限利差扩大至 38 个基点左右，国债收益 率曲线呈现走陡态势。 预计 7 月 CPI 同比增速在 0 附近徘徊，猪肉价格继续下行，原油价格因 地缘冲突有所回升。核心 CPI 温和回升受五一假期影响，消费修复内生 动力有限，对 CPI 拉动作用较弱。 预计政府债将继续成为社融主要支撑力量，6 月政府债净供给超 1.6 万 亿，同比翻倍。企业工业利润 5 月快速回落至负区间，居民部门地产修 复情况不明确，票据利率偏小幅度表现不支持社融大幅提升。 5 月出口保持正增长 4.8%，受抢出口和转出口韧性支撑。若中美关税互 免期内外溢性影响不显著，东盟、印度、欧洲等主要出口国仍会形成支 撑。下半年出口增速可能转负，需关注中美关税互免期结束时美方态度 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 适当牺牲流动性挖收益 2025 年 7 月小品种策略 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 03 日 齐晟 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | | 利差压缩行情或延续：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-07-01 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 7 月流动性或仍宽松：利率债市场周观察 | 2025-07-01 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 7月小品种主线：适当牺牲流动性选择信用小品种挖收益。考虑到在平稳跨季之后市 场乐观情绪更为一致，也有流动性宽松、固收资管产品扩张等因素支持，市场环境 整体友好无大潜在利空，我们建议 7 月可以延续牺牲流动性向久期、向品种要收益 的思路，还未到止 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in June, providing a suitable liquidity environment to support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Liquidity Tools and Net Injection - In June, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 656 billion yuan through various liquidity tools, with short-term reverse repos contributing 535.9 billion yuan [1] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June, with a total of 2.35 trillion yuan injected in the first half of 2025, all with a one-year term [2] - The PBOC's use of liquidity tools reflects a focus on supporting key sectors such as consumption, manufacturing, foreign trade, private enterprises, and real estate [1] Group 2: MLF and Reverse Repo Operations - The MLF has transitioned from a supplementary liquidity tool to a primary monetary policy tool, with its role evolving over the past decade [2] - The PBOC's short-term reverse repo operations are aimed at maintaining short-end liquidity, with the DR007 rate being a critical indicator of liquidity tightening [3] - The PBOC's buyout reverse repo operations have increased, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan in June, helping to lower funding costs for financial institutions [4] Group 3: Buyout Reverse Repo Implementation - Since the introduction of buyout reverse repos in October 2024, the balance has gradually increased, alleviating pressure on MLF for medium-term liquidity [5] - The regular operation of buyout reverse repos enhances liquidity management and fills the gap between the 7-day reverse repo and the 1-year MLF [5]

研究支持： 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 王哲一 A0230123100001 2025.7.3 主要内容 证 券 研 究 报 告 债市"走楼梯" 行情的新特征 ——2025年7月债市展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 ◼ 2025年的债市呈现出"走楼梯"行情节奏，本报告重点回答几个问题：1、今年债市为什么呈现"走楼梯"行情；2、 资金利率与存单利率走势的差异在哪里？3、今年为何配置盘偏弱？4、利率下行的阻碍是什么？5、"走楼梯"行情 下，如何应对？ ◼ 2025年1月至今市场逻辑切换： ✓ 2025Q1：经济预期改善，从紧资金到紧存单，长债回调，权益和商品走强。 ✓ 2025年4月：外部环境恶化，流动性转松，债市快速走牛，权益和商品表现较弱。 ✓ 2025年5-6月：降准降息兑现，债市下行至低位后虽无大幅调整风险，但震荡市中资本利得收窄，重点在于挖掘利差。权益和商品受 地缘风险担忧降温影响，表现较好。 ...