新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 下游以签订长单为主 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-10，LME铅现货升水为-10.74美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至17350元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17325元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至17375元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-10，沪铅主力合约开于17440元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化85元/吨，全天交易日 成交31610手，较前一交易日变化4404手，全天交易日持仓58725手，手较前一交易日变化-1093手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17535元/吨，最低点达到17440元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; may stop falling in the short term, but the upward drive is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream devices brings demand increments, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds, and the futures market stops falling and consolidates [2] - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the factory inventory pressure is still high. The demand side is driven by downstream bargain - hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase later [2] - International oil prices still face oversupply pressure, and the external propane market is continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [6][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information involves the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [63][69]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the futures market closed slightly lower, and the spot market was stable. The restart of domestic soybean auctions by Cofco may impact prices, and the subsequent temperature drop is expected to boost market demand [1][3] - For peanuts, the futures market oscillated higher. The supply pressure continued to be released, but the demand side had poor承接力. Market attention is on the actions of major oil mills [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs (Soybeans) Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2601 contract was 4116.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan/ton (-0.05%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 36, a change of +2 (+32.14%) from the previous day. The new - season soybean market in Northeast China was stable, with farmers having more remaining grain and some holding a wait - and - see attitude. Downstream traders adopted a demand - based procurement strategy [1][2] Market News - Cofco plans to restart domestic soybean auctions this week, with a total auction volume of 30969 tons. High temperatures in the southern sales area may affect soybean sales, and a temperature drop is expected to increase demand [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs (Peanuts) Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Peanut 2601 contract was 7814.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton (+0.77%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7840.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 414.00, a change of -60.00 (+16.95%) from the previous day. The national average price of general peanuts decreased, and oil mills' procurement was limited [4] Market News - The peanut futures market oscillated higher. The supply pressure was released, but most oil mills were on the sidelines, and the demand from food factories was average. There were concerns about a concentrated supply in Henan after rain [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with the risk of weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On November 10, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 4000-point mark, rising 0.53% to close at 4018.60 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13427.61 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 3178.83 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2174.5 billion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 index showed a strengthening trend on November 10, closing at 4695.05, a环比 increase of 16.26 [2]. - The weighted index of coke was weak on November 10, closing at 1774.0, a环比 decrease of 20.2. The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 1277.1 yuan, a环比 decrease of 14.9 [2][3]. - The third round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for coke has been implemented. Some coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on November 10. The total inventory of coke decreased by 129,700 tons last week [4]. - After the third - round price increase of coke, the production profit loss of coke enterprises decreased slightly, but the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises declined. The terminal demand was weak, and the steel mill's profit had a negative feedback on the molten iron output [5]. - Affected by the expectation of the US government's potential restart and strong Brazilian export data in October, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract and Shanghai Rubber showed an upward trend on November 10 [5][6]. - On November 10, the palm oil futures maintained a low - level volatile trend, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8690, a 0.35% increase from the previous day. As of November 7, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country increased [6]. - After the US Senate advanced a measure to reopen the federal government, industrial metals, including Shanghai Copper, rose. China's CPI turned from a decline to an increase in October 2025, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The social inventory of refined copper decreased slightly [6]. - On the night of November 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 281 lots compared with the previous trading day. The cotton picking in northern and eastern Xinjiang has ended, and southern Xinjiang is in the late stage of picking [6]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a minimum of 772.5, a maximum of 785, and closed at 782.5, with a decrease of 866 lots in positions. The spot price of logs in Shandong remained flat, while that in Jiangsu decreased. From January to October, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased year - on - year [6][7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.07% at 765 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased环比, while the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The molten iron output decreased for 5 consecutive periods [7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.17% at 3036 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased环比, and the inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand remained weak [8]. - On November 10, rb2601 of steel closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3252 yuan/ton. The coking coal market remained tight, and coke started the fourth - round price increase. The demand for steel in the off - season was weak, and the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides [8]. - On November 10, ao2601 of alumina closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply of caustic soda was disrupted, driving up the cost of alumina. However, the demand for alumina was expected to weaken [8]. - On November 10, al2512 of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan/ton. The high aluminum price suppressed the downstream procurement willingness. There were risks on the supply side, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in November [8]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report.

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve due to the slight increase in spot prices and production cuts during the dry season in the southwest. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. With the expected increase in silicon - coal prices, there is some support for industrial silicon. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [2][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is still significant inventory pressure. The downstream production schedule may weaken, and consumer support is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On November 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,230 yuan/ton and closed at 9,290 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,503 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, a change of 75 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase), and 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, with no change. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and others increased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [2]. - In Yunnan, the dry season has arrived. Most silicon enterprises in production stopped production at the end of October, and a few stopped in early November. Currently, there are only over 20 silicon furnaces in production in the entire Yunnan region, and the remaining enterprises are of the integrated or long - order delivery types [2]. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton with no change. Yunneng Silicon Materials' Qujing Branch completed a key technological transformation project, which improved the tank utilization rate to 100% and laid a foundation for process optimization and cost control [3]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, buy on dips - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [4] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile trend, opening at 53,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,720 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 125,974 lots (125,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 218,786 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg, with no change. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of - 0.77%), and silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.45%). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,000 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.30%), and silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.55%) [5][6]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase compared to September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [6]. - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, with no change [6]. - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W, with no change [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W, with no change [7]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain under pressure, and the prices continue to fluctuate at the bottom. PE is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited cost - side support and short - term price pressure. PP has supply - demand contradictions, weak cost - side support, and short - term prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The figures include the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil, PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit from crude oil, PP production profit from PDH, polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented in the figures [16][19][20] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The figures show the price differences such as HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, etc., as well as the polypropylene maintenance loss volume and PDH capacity utilization rate [27][33] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures cover LL import profit, LL export - related price differences, PP import profit, and PP export profit (to Southeast Asia) [40][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The downstream operating rates of PE (agricultural film, packaging film, etc.) and PP (plastic weaving, BOPP, etc.) and the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are shown in the figures [63][71] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE (oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, ports) and PP (oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, ports) are presented in the figures [72][82][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price remained relatively volatile during the week, supported by mine - end disturbances but with lackluster demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile range between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton, and physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging according to this range [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 10, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 86,110 yuan/ton and closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,790 yuan/ton and closed at 86,500 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at 86,360 - 86,710 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 55 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. The market trading activity increased, and the mainstream transactions this week are expected to center around par [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - The US announced a one - year suspension of the Section 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China suspended the special port dues on US ships and the countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year [3] - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown. The bill still needs a final vote in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the government shutdown may end before this weekend [3] 3.1.4 Mine End - Solaris Resources' pre - feasibility study shows that the after - tax net present value of its Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador could reach $4.6 billion. The after - tax internal rate of return is 26%, and the after - tax payback period is 2.6 years. The initial capital is expected to be $3.73 billion. The project plans to produce 240,000 tons of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [4] 3.1.5 Smelting and Import - In the past week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The bill of lading weekly average price was $46.8/ton, a $5.8 decrease from the previous week; the warehouse receipt average price was $35/ton, a $1.8 decrease. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton as of November 7. The import window may open briefly in mid - to - late November, but the subsequent upside of the Yangshan copper premium is limited [5] 3.1.6 Consumption - From January to October, in Baotou City, the first - industry electricity consumption was 187 million kWh, a 3.89% year - on - year decrease; the second - industry electricity consumption was 87.273 billion kWh, a 1.3% increase. The third - industry and residential electricity consumption also increased [6] - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 63.84%. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% increase [6][7] 3.1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,425 tons to 136,275 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 395 tons to 43,789 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a 74,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [7] 3.2 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 11 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount)<br> - SMM: 1 Copper | 55 | 40 | - 5 | 20 | | - Premium Copper | 115 | 90 | 60 | 80 | | - Flat - water Copper | 10 | 15 | - 30 | - 5 | | - Wet - process Copper | - 50 | - 70 | - 100 | - 75 | | - Yangshan Premium (USD/ton) | 43 | 44 | 51 | 53 | | - LME (0 - 3) | - 18 | - 31 | - 14 | - 37 | | Inventory<br> - LME (tons) | 136275 | 135900 | 133600 | 139200 | | - SHFE (tons) | 115035 | | 116140 | | | - COMEX (tons) | 335086 | 332410 | 322649 | 302613 | | Warehouse Receipts<br> - SHFE Warehouse Receipts (tons) | 43789 | 43394 | 40066 | 29964 | | - LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 8.30% | 7.96% | 9.95% | 5.95% | | - CU2602 - CU2511 (Contango - Near Month) | 50 | 40 | 70 | 40 | | - CU12 - CU11 (Main - Near Month) | 0 | 20 | 40 | 10 | | Arbitrage<br> - CU12/AL12 | 3.98 | 3.97 | 4.04 | 4.09 | | - CU12/ZN12 | 3.81 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.86 | | - Import Profit (yuan/ton) | - 585 | - 496 | - 872 | - 1012 | [27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].