石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-07 成本端支撑转弱，沥青短期市场压力有限 市场分析 1、5月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3361元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌45元/吨，跌幅 1.32%；持仓113918手，环比上涨984手，成交194405手，环比下降23855手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3410—3600元/吨；华南，3320—3430元/吨； 华东，3500—3570元/吨。 昨日东北、华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均出现下跌，华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青 现货价格大体企稳。假期期间原油价格下移，带动节后盘面走低，沥青现货市场交投氛围平淡。就沥青自身基本 面而言，供需两弱格局延续，市场缺乏明显驱动，油价反复波动，盘面或继续受到宏观情绪与原油端影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元 ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the fundamentals remain in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is at a low level with low valuation, and the export end still provides support. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Although the spot trading has slightly improved, the short - term market oscillates. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,854 yuan/ton (-88), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+48), and the South China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+38) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,770 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was -589 yuan/ton (-56), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was -741 yuan/ton (-157), and the PVC export profit was 18.0 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (-0.9), the social PVC inventory was 40.4 tons (-1.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 77.69% (+0.47%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 74.52% (+2.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.80% (+1.13%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 58.4 tons (-1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton (+19), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+44) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,496 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 704.0 yuan/ton (-97.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 72.04 yuan/ton (+42.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,330.43 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.58 tons (+0.73), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.90% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 75.96% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 60.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 79.71% (+2.54%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: In May, the scale of PVC enterprise maintenance is expected to decrease month - on - month, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so the operation is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure remains high [3]. - Demand: The terminal real estate market is still weak, the operation rate of downstream PVC product enterprises continues to decline and is at a low level in the same period. The downstream market mainly makes rigid purchases at low prices, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. Although PVC exports are doing well and the social inventory is decreasing, the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping and BIS certification policies and US tariff policies are expected to have a negative impact [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Previously shut - down and maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. Since the current comprehensive profit has not fallen into the loss range, most upstream enterprises still maintain high operation, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to ease in the short term [3]. - Demand: The price of the main downstream product, alumina, is running at a low level, some marginal alumina plants are in the loss range, and there is still great pressure on alumina production reduction, which is expected to reduce the demand for caustic soda. The non - aluminum end's replenishment rhythm has slowed down, the operation of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has declined significantly, and US tariff policies are expected to continue to impact downstream industries, so the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. Strategy - PVC is rated as neutral. The fundamentals are in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is low, the valuation is low, and the export end still provides support. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic soda is rated as neutral. Although the spot trading has slightly improved and the short - term market oscillates, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [4].

化工日报 | 2025-05-07 青岛港口库存小幅增加 橡胶观点 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14815元/吨，较前一日变动+260元/吨。NR主力合约12555元/吨，较前一日变动+270 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14600元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨， 较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1770美元/吨，较前一日变动+50美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1710美元/吨，较前一日变动+50美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：据了解，"五一"小长假轮胎检修企业目前多已按计划重启，目前多数处于工序预热阶段，部分开 工较早企业装置产能逐步释放，整体来看，五一假期后，装置多按计划重启，产能将逐步释放。期间整体出货表 现一般，库存多较为充足。为刺激出货，部分轮胎企业推出促销政策支持，以刺激出货量，下游整体走货缓慢， 代理商拿货谨慎，多维持观望态势。 市场分析 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-07 纯苯港口库存仍未兑现上升 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.00万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费107美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差97.5美元/吨（+15.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价 差-35元/吨（+60元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差186元/吨（-26元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润30元/吨（+87元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存68500吨（-16700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存53500吨（-4700吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.5%（+2.6%）。 上游原油价格大幅波动，中美关税政策变化，对美国乙烷的关税动态 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润516元/吨（-11元/吨），PS生产利润-9元/吨（+14元/吨），ABS生产利润957元/吨（-168 元/吨）。EPS开工率48.73%（-8.31%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.00%）， ...

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 震荡运行 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望，等待逢高做空机会 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： 震荡 | | | ◆橡胶： 震荡 | | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡走强 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆油脂 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3109 | -13 | 热卷01 | 3224 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3031 | -29 | 热卷05 | 3181 | 2 | | 螺纹10 | 3077 | -19 | 热卷10 | 3196 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2120 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3210 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3240 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3260 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3430 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3300 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3350 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3420 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | ...

【综合快讯】 1. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，5 月 6 日新疆某电解铝厂常规招标采购现货氧化铝保持，本周招标总量 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 05 月 07 日 铝：上行动力不足 氧化铝：低位整理 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19785 | -125 | -145 | -୧୪୧ | -620 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19760 | - | - | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2429 | 38 | -31 | -110 | -260 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 138706 | 11695 | -21163 | -28516 | -12485 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 183758 | -11 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月7日） 1. 据Mysteel，卫星数据显示，2024年4月28日-5月4日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存 总量1316.8万吨，环比上升58万吨，库存持续累库，目前库存绝对量处于二季度以来的高点。 3. 据国家粮油信息中心，5月上旬，我国进口巴西大豆陆续通关入厂，预计5月进口量1200万吨，6月 1100万吨，国内大豆供应将明显改善。本周油厂开机率将明显回升，预计5月全国主要油厂大豆压榨量 830万吨。 4. 国际棉花咨询委员会（ICAC）发布的5月份全球产需预测称，棉花市场前景倾向悲观，棉花消费和采 购面临压力。 5. 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，由于船运商削减全球制造业合作伙伴的订单，美国进 口量迅速下降，如今已蔓延至全美范围的出口下滑。其中大豆、玉米和牛肉等农产品受到的冲击最为严 重。 6. 据Mysteel，2025年4月28日-5月4日，澳洲锂精矿发运至中国总量10.2万吨，环比上升2.4万吨，周度 平均发运中国量6.9万吨，当周全球发运量为10.2万吨。 2. 据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚4月1-30日棕 ...