Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's value and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above the market expectation of 3.0%[2] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Consumer Behavior - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident, with July's goods inflation remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - Prices in previously affected sectors like clothing and appliances are showing signs of stabilization or decline, indicating that companies may be absorbing tariff costs due to weakened consumer demand[4] - Service inflation is rebounding, with significant increases in medical services (+0.8%), vehicle maintenance (+1.0%), and airfares (+4.0%) reflecting rising labor costs[5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data and moderate inflation figures, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day[6] - The current inflation outlook suggests potential challenges for future rate cuts, as tariff impacts may continue to spread, leading to price increases that could eventually be passed on to consumers[6] - The tightening of immigration policies may also affect labor supply, potentially increasing service inflation persistence[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the conflicting signals from recent economic data, particularly the July CPI, which has led to a decrease in market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, subsequently impacting the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [1][2][4] - The July CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, marginally exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - The market's reaction to the potential interest rate cut has been mixed, with the dollar index dropping by 0.5% to 97.85, typically favorable for gold, yet gold prices have shown weakness, with the Shanghai gold futures contract down 0.08% to 776.46 CNY per gram and spot gold down 0.07% to 3345.210 USD per ounce [2][4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with the nomination of Milan as a potential board member, which could raise concerns about the politicization of monetary policy if he advocates for more accommodative measures [3] - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve appears strained, as evidenced by the pressure exerted on Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, which may undermine market confidence in the Fed's credibility [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: a reduction in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut from 70% to 55%, a rebound in tech stocks attracting investment away from gold, and technical resistance around the 3350 USD per ounce level prompting profit-taking by some investors [4] Group 3 - The outlook for gold remains uncertain in the short term, with expectations of continued volatility, particularly in light of upcoming non-farm payroll data and statements from Federal Reserve officials [5] - If economic slowdown risks are confirmed by future data, renewed expectations for rate cuts could support a rebound in gold prices; conversely, if inflation remains sticky, gold may face further adjustments [5] - Long-term factors such as global geopolitical risks, trends towards de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices, suggesting structural investment opportunities [5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比涨幅为2.7%，基本符合市场预期，却略低于部 分经济学家的预测。这一数据继6月份0.3%的涨幅后显示出通胀压力的缓和迹象，特别是核心CPI（扣 除食品和能源）环比上涨0.3%，同比达3.1%，为今年1月以来的最大涨幅，但整体并未出现大幅上行。 周三（8月13日）亚洲时段，现货黄金小幅走高，黄金价格在3350水平附近反复震荡，美国通胀数据公 布后，交易员们维持了对9月和12月降息的押注，这让黄金的多头力量得以积聚，短期内市场保持谨 慎，等待更多经济指标的验证，当地时间8月12日，由于美国联邦政府继续以创纪录的速度积累债务， 美国国债总额首次超过37万亿美元。 【要闻速递】 当地时间8月12日，由于美国联邦政府继续以创纪录的速度积累债务，美国国债总额首次超过37万亿美 元。美国财政部发布的最新数据显示，截至当日下午，美国国债总额已达到37004817625842美元。美国 联邦预算问责委员会主席马娅·麦吉尼亚斯对此表示，美国财政状况严重失衡，但国会却不断让情况恶 化。 白宫发言人莱维特周二表示，美国总统特朗普正考虑起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，因鲍威尔对美联储华盛顿 ...

他们预计英国劳动力市场将进一步恶化。因此，裕信银行预测英国央行将在今年11月和12月分别降息25 个基点，明年还将再降息三次。本月英国央行在票数接近的情况下投票决定将利率降至4.0%，其中四 位决策者倾向于维持利率不变。这促使市场降低了对未来降息的预期。伦敦证券交易所的数据显示，英 国货币市场预计到明年年底英国央行只会再降息两次，其中一次在2025年发生的可能性仅为72%。 英镑兑美元14日相对强弱指数（RSI）在过去几个交易日于20.00-40.00区间震荡后，回升至50.00上方， 暗示市场正尝试形成看涨反转。下行方面，8月1日低点1.3140将构成关键支撑区域；上行方面，7月23 日高点1.3585附近将成为重要阻力位。 周三（8月13日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3500，跌幅0.04%，昨日收盘报1.3506。意大利裕信银行 投资研究所的分析师在一份报告中表示，英国央行降息幅度可能超过市场预期。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still subject to certain disturbances, but the fundamentals and capital still support the market. The yield center may remain low in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to potential disturbances and grasp trading opportunities [20]. - The issuance of the "Notice" by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors is conducive to strengthening market constraints and self - discipline management, improving market operation efficiency, and promoting the high - quality development of the bond market [5]. - The weakening US employment data has significantly increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, which may promote international capital inflows, narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, and create opportunities for domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the "Notice" to standardize bond issuance and underwriting, aiming to improve the market - oriented pricing efficiency of bonds, strengthen market constraints and self - discipline management, and promote the high - quality development of the bond market [5][12][13]. - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in July, but the weak US employment data in July has increased the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it may have a three - fold impact on the domestic bond market [6][16][17]. Macroeconomic Data - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry both contracted, and the economic growth momentum was still weak. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from June [7][21][22]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank made a net investment of 690 million yuan through open - market operations. After the month - end, the capital demand decreased, and the capital prices of most terms declined. The Shibor showed a trend of rising first and then falling [26]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous week, with a total issuance of 217.421 billion yuan, a decrease of 106.896 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation scale of issuance increased. The issuance costs of credit bonds showed mixed trends [28][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 12.1408 billion yuan to 184.6795 billion yuan. The yields of interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds declined, the credit spreads mostly expanded, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [40]. Appendix - There were several bond default and extension events in the bond market, including "R Hongda 1", "15 Huazi Bond", "16 Huaye 02", etc. [53]. - There were a series of regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors' issuance of multiple notices to improve relevant information services and regulatory requirements [53][55].

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. CPI for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month but slightly below the expected 2.8% [5] - The core CPI year-on-year for July reached 3.1%, the highest since February 2025, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous 2.9% [5] - Following the CPI data release, the market reacted with a decline in the dollar and an increase in U.S. stock futures, indicating a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In the first half of the year, investments in key energy projects in China exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with new energy storage projects seeing over 30% growth [8] - The successful completion of an integrated energy system by Shandong Shifeng Group, featuring a 108 MW solar power station and a 100 MW/200 MWh energy storage station, is expected to save 46,000 tons of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by 160,000 tons annually [8] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment to develop a general electric vehicle platform, aiming to produce a series of economical vehicles to compete with Chinese electric vehicle giants [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US CPI has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the core inflation rate rising to its highest level since the beginning of the year, driven by service prices, while commodity prices have seen moderate increases [8][11] - China Evergrande Group's Hong Kong-listed shares will be delisted, marking the end of an era for the once-prominent real estate developer, which has liabilities of HKD 350 billion and is currently unable to achieve a comprehensive restructuring [8][11] - The report notes that US tariff revenues reached a record high in July, but this did not prevent the budget deficit from widening, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges for the federal government [11] Group 2 - China Unicom reported a 5% increase in net profit to RMB 14.48 billion for the first half of 2025, with a total of approximately 1.208 billion connected users, including 213.5 million 5G package users [12] - Tencent Music's net profit for the second quarter rose by 43.2% year-on-year to RMB 2.409 billion, with total revenue increasing by 17.9% to RMB 8.44 billion [12] - Galaxy Entertainment's interim net profit increased by 19.4% to RMB 5.24 billion, with a revenue of RMB 23.246 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the global oil market is expected to tighten more than previously anticipated, with OPEC raising its forecast for global oil demand growth due to accelerating demand and slowing supply growth from competitors [11] - The report mentions that the personal consumption loan subsidy policy implemented by China aims to stimulate consumer spending by reducing the cost of consumer credit [11] - The report discusses the performance of various companies, including a significant oversubscription for the public offering of Silver Pharma-B, which was oversubscribed by approximately 5,364 times, attracting around 370 billion in subscriptions [10]

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月13日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79020 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2510C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特10合约跌0.9％。上周美国API原油库存超预期增加151.9万桶，馏分油 库存亦录得增长,四季度旺季过后需求回落叠加OPEC+220万桶/天剩余产能完成回归,盈余幅度约 是前三季度的两倍，中期供需宽松压力始终存在。原油市场仍在等待美俄会谈带来新的方向指引， 而谈判的双向结果均将引发油价较大波动,本周暂以震荡行情看待,关注SC10合约虚值期权的双买 机会。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属表现震荡，美国公布7月CP1年率持平在2.7%略低于预期，不过核心CP1年率录得3.1%高 于预期为五个月高位,数据发布后市场维持美联储9月重启降息的押注,特朗普发文再度敦促降息。 聚焦本周美俄领导会谈，市场情绪面临波动，贵金属震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机会。 （铜） 隔夜铜价走高，中美延长现行关税政策，且美国7月CPI增幅低于预期，支持9月降息，美元走低， 美股再高。沪铜夜盘再临7.95万，关注今日现货报价。7月国内铜产出再创新高，市场预计8月环降 幅度不大。倾向铜价难有效突破7.95万,逢高空配。 (铝) ...