Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the China-U.S. trade relations and their implications for global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Trade Relations** - The trade relationship remains complex with mutual dependence despite friction. China is enhancing trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU, and other non-U.S. regions to maintain export resilience, employing a transshipment trade strategy effectively [1][3][5]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has increased U.S. import costs, with average tariffs around 16% and potential increases to 20%. In contrast, some Chinese exports face tariffs as high as 50%, negatively impacting U.S. economic conditions [4][5]. 3. **Short-term Export Performance** - China's exports are expected to grow by 7% in Q2 2025, but a decline is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to the expansion of global tariffs. The overall GDP forecast for China is approximately 4.75% for the year [9][10]. 4. **U.S. Economic Growth Projections** - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to around 1% from an initial estimate of nearly 2%. This decline is significantly influenced by tariff impacts [8]. 5. **Real Estate and Fiscal Policy in China** - China's real estate investment has underperformed expectations, with potential fiscal stimulus measures anticipated in the second half of the year, including special bonds to support the economy [10]. 6. **Currency Trends** - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate, potentially reaching around 7 by the end of the year. This is influenced by the current economic conditions and capital flows [12][13][23]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics** - The trade war has led to a significant shift in global trade patterns, with China increasing exports to regions like ASEAN and Africa to offset losses from the U.S. market [3][6]. 8. **Long-term Economic Relations** - In the long run, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to evolve amidst geopolitical divisions, with China focusing more on non-U.S. partners [7]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Investment Risks** - Current market sentiment is weak due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to significant declines in exports and economic growth in the latter half of the year [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising inflation expectations are leading to tighter monetary policies, with little likelihood of a new Plaza Accord [11]. 2. **Emerging Market Currencies** - Emerging market currencies are facing uncertainty due to trade dynamics and economic challenges, limiting their potential for appreciation [15]. 3. **Commodity Market Outlook** - A bearish outlook is projected for commodities like oil and steel, with expectations of price declines due to oversupply and weak demand [22]. 4. **Investor Behavior** - Investors are advised to be cautious with U.S. Treasury bonds due to volatility risks and potential dollar depreciation impacting returns on dollar-denominated assets [13][18]. 5. **Future Liquidity Conditions** - The potential for rapid liquidity release in the market is anticipated, depending on the economic recovery trajectory, which could influence asset allocation strategies [25].

在中国的稀土管控政策下，美国的半导体、军工、新能源等行业饱受冲击，美国的能源和农产品对华出 口还处于低迷状态，而军工、能源和粮食是特朗普的基本盘。在这种背景下，近日美媒炒作中方放松了 对美稀土出口管制，理由是中方发放了4张稀土出口许可证，这是中国自上个月对7类中重稀土实施出口 限制后，首次发放出口许可。不排除是特朗普政府的授意，目的是试探中方的态度，为接下来的谈判定 下基调，但美方的算盘很难打响。 如果这样，我们不妨可以高价出售稀土给美国，但禁止美国出售使用中国稀土制造的武器装备给台湾 省，如果不停，就全面中断对美国稀土出口。也就是说，稀土这张牌，我们可以不断地打，反复地打， 既可以和关税战结合，也可以和关税战脱离，中美之间的针锋相对，并非仅仅针对特朗普的关税疯狂， 需要打系统战、总体战、混合战，让特朗普无法施展流氓政治，基于实力和地位坚决地斗争，并获得彻 底的胜利。 据北京青年网报道，近日，外交部发言人主持例行记者会。有记者提问，美国贸易代表格里尔本周告诉 美媒体，中国同意解除近期后发布的出口反制措施，包括对稀土矿物和磁铁的出口管制。中方已宣布修 改几项非关税反制措施，但没有修改稀土方面的限制。中方是否计划 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment was boosted by changes in tariff expectations, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices, with total trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicated increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with concerns about tariffs driving inflation, and a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts [1][2] Economic Indicators - China's economic indicators for the first four months of the year showed year-on-year growth rates exceeding those of the previous quarter, indicating a stable recovery [1] - The current phase of easing in U.S.-China trade tensions is expected to support export activities during the tariff suspension period, potentially boosting corporate revenues [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's minutes highlighted a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with officials awaiting clearer information on fiscal and trade policies before making decisions [2][3] - The potential for "stagflation" risks was noted, suggesting that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates until inflation shows a clear decline [3] Stock Market Performance - On May 29, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3363.45 points, up 0.70% [4] - The technology and healthcare sectors led the gains, with the computer sector rising by 3.62% and the pharmaceutical sector by 2.37% [4] Trading Volume and Financing - The market's trading volume was reported at 12,136.01 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [5] - The margin financing balance also rose to 18,105.17 billion yuan, indicating increased investor activity [5]

Group 1 - The core issue is the ongoing tensions between the US and China regarding chip exports, with the US imposing stricter controls to hinder China's chip industry development [1][7] - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue with the US, but insists that such discussions must be based on equality and respect [1][3] - The US's actions, particularly in the semiconductor sector, reflect a continued intent to contain China's growth despite a temporary pause in the trade war [1][5] Group 2 - Former South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, now the president of the US Asia Society, is in China to mediate the chip-related disputes, aiming to foster understanding between the two nations [3] - There is significant internal opposition in the US against Trump's trade policies, with some Republican lawmakers arguing that the trade deficit with China does not equate to a zero-sum game and that both economies benefit from trade [5] - A coalition of 12 US states has filed a lawsuit against Trump, challenging the legality of his tariff impositions, which they argue have harmed their interests [5] Group 3 - The ongoing chip export restrictions from the US are seen as a form of economic warfare that impacts both countries, with China striving to enhance its semiconductor capabilities through increased R&D investment [7] - The future of US-China relations in the semiconductor sector is critical for the global chip industry, as both nations navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by their rivalry [7]

另外，从宏观面来看，2025年以来，国际宏观面消息扰动不断，先是越南、印度等多个国家对中国热轧 板卷产品加收关税，制约热轧板卷出口。国内则基本围绕粗钢减产以及促消费等消息，该消息发布初 期，对行情起到一定提振，但随着消息面转淡，价格将再次回归基本面运行逻辑。6月份来看，贸易局 势不确定性依然存在，且国内消息面逐步进入真空期，难以对热轧板卷市价形成提振。 综合分析，预计6月热轧板卷或继续保持下跌走势，且价格逐步跌出4月以来形成的震荡区间，主要原因 在于淡季的来临带动供需矛盾不断升级，而能够提振行情的消息面因素则逐步减少，国内消息进入真空 期，国际消息不确定性则增加。在多方因素共同作用下，热轧板卷价格底部支撑再次松动，从而市价大 概率出现显著下滑。 （作者：李欢，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 2025年，热轧板卷价格走势相对平缓，基本呈现区间震荡局面，价格重心则逐步下移。虽然中美贸易紧 张局势近期有所缓和，市场暂时进入消息真空期，热轧板卷现货供需矛盾逐步凸显，市价再次出现跌 势，就当前走势来看，6月份市价或再次跌至新的震荡区间，时间节点在端午节后。 具体来看，对于6月热轧板卷行情预期下滑，主要考虑市场 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 多空僵持，沪锌区间整理 2025年5月26日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中美贸易关系缓解，关税影响暂告一段落。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期，目前国内炼厂原料库存27天左右， | | | | | 海外矿山虽有扰动，但影响较小。4月进口锌精矿大量到 | | | | | 港，进口矿达49万吨，部分OZ矿已运至国内，Kipushi矿 | | | | | 试单销售，Gamsberg、Antamina矿亦有招标，紫金矿业在 | | | | | 俄控股的Kyzyl-Tashtyg铅锌矿将取消原定于6月暂停运营 | 随着关税风波暂告一段落，锌价 | | | | 的计划，公司将维持矿山正常运转，矿端持续宽松。 | 走势回归基本面逻辑，当前锌市 | | |  | 成本利润：近期随着锌价重心下移，矿端对TC继续上调 | 供强需弱，库存处于相对低位， | | | | 意愿不高，预计6月TC调涨空间相对有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Cotton is expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the short - to medium - term, especially during the Sino - US "honeymoon period" in May and June. However, caution is needed in July and August. The 09 contract is relatively strong, while the 01 contract may face supply pressure due to expected new cotton production. The price is also highly affected by macro factors [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure. With the weakening of demand and the restart of some production enterprises, the PTA market may continue to be under pressure in the short term without new positive factors [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range. The price may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the new cotton in the 01 contract may lead to a supply increase. The short - to medium - term price is expected to rise, especially in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to hedge at the rebound high [1]. - On May 22, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,621 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,757 (- 14) sheets [8]. - As of early May, Brazil's 2025 new cotton harvest has not started, with an expected total output of 3.95 million tons. In April, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, and the cumulative export volume this year is at a historical high [8]. - On May 22, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1311 yuan/ton·km, down 1.35% month - on - month [8]. PTA - As of May 14, the average PTA processing margin was 390.88 yuan/ton, down 10.5% month - on - month and up 7.68% year - on - year. As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 74.63%, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 4.68% year - on - year. The PTA output was 1.2967 million tons, a slight decrease from last week [8][9]. - The PTA market is under pressure due to weakening demand and the restart of production enterprises. The price is affected by factors such as crude oil and polyester production cuts [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, down 2.42% month - on - month. The production was 368,300 tons, down 1.32% from last week [10][13]. - The price is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction [3]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 166,900 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month, and the average capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, up 1.30% month - on - month. The average polymerization cost was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, up 7.35% month - on - month, and the industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, down 86.41% month - on - month [11]. - The price is expected to be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. Sugar - The NFCSF expects India's 2024/25 sugar production to be about 2.611 million tons, lower than the previous season. The ISO has raised the global sugar shortage estimate for the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, and the cumulative import from January to April was 278,400 tons, a significant decrease year - on - year [12][13][14]. - The sugar price is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. Apples - As of May 21, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 1.7085 million tons, down 242,500 tons from the previous week. The prices in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are provided [15]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Macro Information - Trump's tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives and will be reviewed by the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion [8]. - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI improved slightly, but the service PMI declined significantly, dragging down the composite PMI. The market is increasing bets on the ECB to cut interest rates twice this year [8].

今年5月以来，汇率市场多空博弈态势加剧。以美元兑离岸人民币汇率为例，从4月中上旬的1美元兑7.42元人民币一路震荡下跌。5月21日，美元兑离岸人民 币再度跌破7.2元关口。 在这背后，中美贸易紧张局势缓和、国内释放经济稳增长信号、美联储政策转向预期升温。市场对于中国经济和资产的信心显著提升，支撑人民币汇率的因 素正在积聚。 中美谈判意外破冰，市场迎来"减压时刻" 在全球贸易保护主义阴云笼罩的背景下，5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》一经发布，市场为之振奋。这份声明不仅标志着此次会谈取得了突破 性进展，更被市场视为全球贸易摩擦降温的关键信号。 贸易协议的走向主导着市场情绪并影响着人民币汇率的走势。渣打中国宏观策略主管刘洁就表示，短期美元对人民币有望下行，人民币中间价不排除进一步 调强至7.17-7.18，但未来人民币汇率仍将取决于中国经济状况和贸易谈判进展。 LPR、存款利率同步下调，国内政策支持增强 5月20日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期LPR降至3%，5年期以上LPR降至3.5%，均较上一期下降10个基点，这是今年以来LPR首次下降。 同日，六大国有银行、招商银行等多家银行宣布下调 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势，09 合约偏强，短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约，新棉， 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩，去年种植 番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新 年度供应或宽松了些，因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100，中美贸易战缓和，5、6 月国内会抢出口的，6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子，是中美蜜月期，所以后面认为还会上 涨，但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不 顺，会反复，届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...