【环球时报记者 倪浩 环球时报特约记者 伍绍翔】在美方威胁11月1日将对中国商品加征100%关税后， 美国财政部长贝森特近日又宣称局势已"大幅缓和"，对中国加征关税的情况不一定会发生。面对美方多 变、善变的对华经贸政策表态，中国商务部发言人14日重申：关于关税战、贸易战，中方立场是一贯 的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 商务部：中方立场是一贯的 就近期美方宣布对华加征关税等限制措施，商务部新闻发言人14日答记者问称，"我想指出，美方不能 一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方相处的正确之道。" 上个月中美马德里经贸会谈后，两国元首在9月19日通话，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。 但之后，美方仍坚持出台对华限制措施，包括将大量中国企业列入"实体清单"。10月9日，为维护国家 安全和利益、履行防扩散等国际义务，商务部发布多则公告对稀土及相关技术和生产设备实施出口管 制。美国总统特朗普随即威胁11月1日将对中国商品加征100%关税。 "我愿重申，关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系 的正当做法。中国作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全和国际共同安全 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆★ [1] - Timber: Not rated in a clear star system in the given content - Natural Rubber: Rating not clearly defined in a standard star system in the given content - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, weather conditions, and market sentiment, most commodities in the soft - commodity market are facing different degrees of price pressure, and the recommended operation strategies are mainly to wait and see [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - The price of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the spot price of cotton remained stable. The purchase price of new cotton was 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost was 13500 - 14400 yuan/metric ton. The price of pure - cotton yarn was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on the purchase price. The new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, the price of US sugar decreased significantly. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production will remain high, and India and Thailand are expected to increase production. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The sales rhythm was fast this year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production is expected to be good. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In Shaanxi, the price of early - picked Fuji remained high, and the late - maturing Fuji had poor coloring due to heavy rainfall. The price of high - quality goods in the northwest was higher than last year, and the spot market was bullish. However, the supply - side lacked positive drivers, and the storage volume of new - season Red Fuji apples was expected to increase. The cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and the price faced pressure. Maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The prices of RU, MR, and BR continued to decline, and the market sentiment was weak. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a slight decline. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded last week. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased. The tire operating rate decreased during the National Day holiday. The inventory of full - steel tires increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, supply pressure is large, spot inventory is decreasing, cost drive is weak, and trade frictions are escalating. Wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures price increased. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of October 10, 2025, the inventory in Chinese ports increased. The pulp supply was relatively loose, and the demand was average. Downstream paper mills continued to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price remained stable. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased. The domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The demand was in the peak season, but the growth was not sustainable. The inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was small. The supply - demand situation improved, but the demand - side lacked positive factors. Wait and see [7]

【文/观察者网 柳白】被中方稀土管制打蒙的美政府高官，迫于现实接连放软关税语调，却又放不下霸权主义的架子。 在10月13日的福克斯商业频道节目中，美国财政部长贝森特为对华关税降调的同时，又试图混淆视听，指责中方管制是在"对抗全世界"。他不仅臆 想美国此前的限制对中国"影响很大"，还暗戳戳拿30多万在美中国留学生发出威胁，全然一副黔驴技穷之姿。 贝森特称，特朗普提到的100%关税"不一定会真的发生"，美方计划本周在国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间与中方官员会谈。 他对两国有可能缓解紧张局势"保持乐观"，又称华盛顿已准备好实施"强硬的反制措施"。 当被问及政府是否会考虑将中企从美国证券交易所摘牌时，贝森特没有直接回应，只是含糊地说"所有选项都摆在桌面上"。 "我相信中国愿意对话。"贝森特吹嘘，就算中方不愿意，美国也有足够多的手段可用，"力度相当甚至可能超过他们对稀土采取的措施"。 他多次宣称这是"中国与全世界对抗"，是中国"没有控制住局面"，还倒打一耙佯装受害者，说美国"会以多种方式维护自身主权"。 他坚称特朗普政府此前采取贸易措施，对中国"影响很大"。 接着又拿中国留学生当作筹码。慌慌张张的，还一不留神嘴瓢了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].

Report Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap. The production growth rate of SPPOMA is gradually slowing down, and the export data of shipping agencies are strong, which may support the market. After a period of shock and consolidation, there is a chance for palm oil futures to strengthen. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level decline adjustment, with pressure to continue to fall and fill the previous gap. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize in the range of 9200 - 9250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: The bearish sentiment in the market has eased, showing a stop - falling adjustment trend. The tense Sino - US trade relationship still weighs on the CBOT soybean market, and the weak US soybean exports and large domestic supply lead to a weak market. The unstable industrial consumption of US soybean oil also restricts its rise. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is high. After market replenishment, demand weakens, and there is a possibility of a decline in the January contract [1]. Pork Short - term pressure from double - festival hog slaughter is gradually easing, but in the medium - and long - term, the slaughter volume is still increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released. Policy is guiding industry capacity reduction, but the effect needs time. It is expected that the spot price will still face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy is to short on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 [3]. Meal The Sino - US trade relationship is changeable, and the fundamental situation of US soybeans has not improved. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly, with an expected increase in supply, which will suppress the upside of US soybeans. In the fourth quarter of 2025, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected gap in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the M2601 price. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and it is expected that the spot price will be weak this year. If China continues not to purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support in the 2900 - 2950 range, and attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage opportunity [8]. Corn In the northeast region, the new - season corn harvest is accelerating, and farmers are more willing to sell due to the expected bumper harvest, leading to price declines. In the north - China region, the harvest is affected by rainfall, and the wet - grain price is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. However, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively low, and there will be seasonal replenishment demand. Currently, the corn market has strong supply and weak demand and will remain weak [10]. Sugar In mid - September, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, meeting market expectations. Affected by supply expectations, the raw sugar price weakened. Before the National Day, the decline in domestic sugar prices reflected market negative factors. Although the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, domestic fundamentals changed little. Affected by the sharp decline in the overseas market, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Cotton The mainstream theoretical cost of new cotton is between 13800 - 14400 yuan. Cotton enterprises with low costs can gradually hedge with the market. The hedging pressure on the main Zhengzhou cotton contract may increase when the price is above 13500 - 13600 yuan, but the cost also provides some bottom support. Downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises' cotton inventory is not high, and they have demand for raw materials at the current price. In the medium term, the cotton price will face pressure at high levels [14]. Eggs Egg prices are falling, and the breeding industry is in a loss. The supply of large - sized and small - sized eggs may decrease slightly next week, but the inventory of laying hens is still high, and there is inventory accumulation during the festival, so the supply is sufficient and excessive. The demand from food enterprises, families, schools, and institutions is weak, and it is expected that the egg market will decline in the short term without obvious positive support [17]. Summary by Category Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 13, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8550 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 0.70%) from October 11. The futures price of Y2601 was 8268 yuan, down 34 yuan (- 0.41%). The basis of Y2601 was 282 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 8.44%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 13, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9260 yuan, down 200 yuan (- 2.11%) from October 11. The futures price of P2601 was 9364 yuan, down 74 yuan (- 0.78%). The basis of P2601 was - 104 yuan, down 126 yuan (- 572.73%). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 9715.7 yuan, down 176.5 yuan (- 1.78%), and the盘面 import profit was - 352 yuan, up 103 yuan (22.57%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 13, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10150 yuan, down 180 yuan (- 1.74%) from October 11. The futures price of OI601 was 10022 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.39%). The basis of OI601 was 128 yuan, down 141 yuan (- 52.42%) [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 11125 yuan, down 195 yuan (- 1.72%); the price of the 2601 contract was 12135 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts was - 1010 yuan, down 190 yuan (- 23.17%); the position of the main contract was 57257, down 3135 (- 5.19%) [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 10950 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong was 11000 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 10450 yuan, down 250 yuan; in Liaoning was 11150 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong was 11310 yuan, down 300 yuan; in Hunan was 10950 yuan, up 190 yuan; in Hebei was 11200 yuan, up 150 yuan [3]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2930 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.01%); the futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.34%); the basis of M2601 was - 2 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 105.26%); the盘面 import profit of Argentine 12 - month shipments was - 16 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 14.3%) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2392 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the basis of RM2601 was 68 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 1.45%); the盘面 import profit of Canadian 11 - month shipments was 972 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 5.36%) [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3961 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.20%); the basis of the main soybean contract was - 81 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 10.96%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3632 yuan, up 15 yuan (0.41%); the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 308 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 4.64%) [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 1.55%); the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2150 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.92%); the basis was 58 yuan, up 13 yuan (28.89%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 33 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the bulk grain price at Shekou was 2340 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 1.27%); the north - south trade profit was 114 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 8.06%); the CIF price was 1996 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.13%); the import profit was 344 yuan, down 33 yuan (- 8.66%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 1305, down 531 (- 28.92%); the trading volume was 1621691, up 12154 (0.76%); the number of warehouse receipts was 36709, up 14009 (61.71%) [10]. - **Corn starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan down 31 yuan (- 1.27%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 109 yuan, up 31 yuan (39.74%); the spread between the 11 - 3 contracts was - 15 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 87.50%); the spread between the starch - corn futures was 309 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.65%); the profit of Shandong starch enterprises was 44 yuan, up 9 yuan (25.71%); the position was 292872, up 19752 (7.23%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12982, up 4954 (61.71%) [10]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 0.47%); the price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5438 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 0.57%); the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 15.57 cents per pound, down 0.53 cents (- 3.29%); the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was 32 yuan, up 5 yuan (18.52%); the position of the main contract was 390023, up 4187 (1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 8681, down 186 (- 2.10%) [13]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5800 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan, unchanged; the basis in Nanning was 362 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.37%); the basis in Kunming was 372 yuan, up 31 yuan (9.09%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar within the quota was 4426 yuan, down 37 yuan (- 0.83%); the price of Brazilian imported sugar outside the quota was 5621 yuan, down 49 yuan (- 0.86%) [13]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13360 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.11%); the price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13300 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 0.19%); the price of the ICE US cotton main contract was 63.54 cents per pound, down 0.23 cents (- 0.36%); the spread between the 5 - 1 contracts was 60 yuan, up 10 yuan (20.00%); the position of the main contract was 563408, up 8208 (1.53%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2867, down 75 (- 2.55%); the number of valid forecasts was 31, up 3 (10.71%) [14]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton 3128B was 14642 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.08%); the CC Index 3128B was 14789 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.09%); the FC Index M 1% was 12833 yuan, down 104 yuan (- 0.80%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1282 yuan, up 27 yuan (2.15%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1342 yuan, up 37 yuan (2.84%); the spread between the CC Index 3128B and the FC Index M 1% was 1956 yuan, up 118 yuan (6.42%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 2808 yuan per 500 kg, up 2 yuan (0.07%); the price of the egg 01 contract was 3211 yuan per 500 kg, up 51 yuan (1.61%); the spread between the 11 - 01 contracts was - 403 yuan, down 49 yuan (13.84%) [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 2.81 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan (- 3.57%); the basis was 6 yuan per 500 kg, down 106 yuan (- 95.02%); the price of egg - laying chicks was 2.60 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.46 yuan per jin, down 0.18 yuan (- 3.88%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.51, down 0.32 (- 11.31%); the breeding profit was - 16.90 yuan per hen [17].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 14, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report on Energy and Chemicals by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the fundamentals and market dynamics of each commodity [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Mid - term trend is weak. Suggest long PXN positions due to potential PX supply - demand gap and expected expansion of polyester industry chain profits [2][10] - **PTA**: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral trend is weak due to weak cost support and sufficient supply [2][10] - **MEG**: Unilateral trend is weak under the pattern of oversupply. Overall load is expected to adjust slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of policies on demand [2][11] Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly. Market shows a decline in futures prices and a decrease in inventory in Qingdao area [2][13][15] Synthetic Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak operation. Fundamental pressure increases due to high supply, and macro - trade conflicts may also affect cost and demand expectations [2][18] Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weakly oscillating. Production increases, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases [2][20][31] LLDPE, PP, PVC - **LLDPE**: Trend is weak. Market is affected by tariff policies, with high inventory pressure and limited cost support from crude oil [2][32][33] - **PP**: Trend remains weak. Suppressed by factors such as trade wars and high supply [2][36][37] - **PVC**: Trend is weak. High - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may face policy disturbances [2][74][75] Others - **Caustic Soda**: Do not chase short positions in the short term. Supply pressure is not large, and demand in some areas is expected to drive inventory reduction [40][42] - **Pulp**: Oscillating. Supply pressure persists, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [45][48] - **Glass**: Original sheet prices are stable. Market demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [50][51] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation. Spot prices show some increases, and port inventory has accumulated after the holiday [53][56] - **Urea**: Short - term oscillating. Inventory increased during the National Day, and spot trading improved recently, but the medium - term trend remains weak [58][59][60] - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions. Short - term oscillation is expected, and the expectation of inventory accumulation turns to de - stocking in October [61][62] - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [63][64] - **LPG**: Resistant to decline at low levels and rebounded at night. Attention should be paid to the changes in CP prices and device maintenance plans [66][71] - **Propylene**: Demand weakens, and short - term weak operation is expected [67] - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and weak in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a slight decline at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot is narrowing [77] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: May oscillate strongly. Market conditions are affected by factors such as freight rates and shipping capacity [79]

（3）美豆上下震荡。美政府停摆，导致10月美农报告未发布。当前美豆集中收割，美豆农大豆无处可去，美将进 行援助，中美贸易关系仍紧张。 国产大豆收获，中美谈判悬疑？ 2025年10月14日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约止跌反弹。现货价格承压回落，富锦大豆市场价由4140元/吨落至4000元/吨附近。大豆基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水收窄，期现回归。 豆粕01合约低位震荡。豆粕现货价格稳中有升，张家港43粕由2870元/吨升至2900元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘面 升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆集中收割，余粮增加；据钢联：截至10月10日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比升至60%；安徽大豆余粮占比升 至5%；河南大豆余粮占比升至2%；山东大豆余粮占比升至5%。黑龙江大豆集中收获，华北等地遇连阴雨，阻碍收获。 （2）油厂大豆供应充足。据海关总署：8月国内进口大豆1228万吨，环比增加5.3%，同比增加1.12%；1-8月累计进 口7331.76万吨，同比增加4%。中美谈判悬疑，此前特朗普威胁再加100%关税，随后松口有谈判预期。国内进口结构转 向南美，集中到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

And back up goes Wall Street. U.S. stocks are rallying Monday after President Donald Trump said " it will all be fine,†just days after he sent the market reeling by threatening much higher tariffs on China. ...

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