醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2267 | 2293 | -26 | -1.13% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2247 | 2240 | 7 | 0.31% | | | MA59价差 | 20 | 53 | -33 | -62.26% | | | 太仓基差 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -525 | -297 | 42 | -14.14% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1848 | 1850 | -3 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2083 | 2103 | -20 | -0.95% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2270 | 2270 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 423 | 420 | 3 | 0.60% | | | ...

Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]

2026 年 01 月 08 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260108 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260108 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF02-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -14 | 3 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 116315 | 165849 | -49534 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 530 | 6, 535 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 126634 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 08 日 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1164 | ୧୫ | 6.2% | | | | 12605 | 1773 | 118 | 7. 1% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 898934 | 499345 | -2636 | | | | 12605 | 45483 | 38416 | 1678 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1403 | 1403 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1153 | 1153 | 0 | | | | 吕梁中疏肥煤 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities on January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Key Points Steel - On January 7, domestic steel markets mostly rose, with Tangshan steel billet price up 50 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raising rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm rebar increased by 28 yuan/ton. After the fourth round of coke price cuts at the beginning of the month and high - priced iron ore, steel costs slightly decreased, and some steel mills resumed production. With the rise of coke and iron ore futures, steel prices rebounded. Due to the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season, the rebound space may be limited, and prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, while domestic rubber factories faced losses. As of January 4, 2026, Chinese natural rubber social inventory increased, with dark - colored rubber up 3% and light - colored rubber up 1.3%. Most tire companies controlled production flexibly, with finished - product inventory rising and raw - material procurement being cautious. Technically, there was insufficient follow - up capital. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with strong pressure at 16,300 yuan/ton [3] Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 561,000 tons to 1.1583 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, but with the recovery of steel mill profits and iron - water output, demand was supported, and steel mills continued to replenish inventory slightly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the market expects marginal improvement in the short term, and prices may fluctuate strongly [5] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 0.3% to 35.4%, and the daily output of clean coal increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, while the inventory decreased by 94,000 tons to 319,700 tons. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, there may be few transactions before the festival, and prices are likely to fall after the festival, so it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.2%. The pig price in the north was stronger and stable in the south, with reduced supply in some northern weight segments supporting prices. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and short - term long positions are recommended, while focusing on farmers' slaughter volume and sow culling [6] Soybean Meal - On January 7, domestic soybean meal prices rose. Oil mills and traders were bullish, and some downstream companies increased long - term contract purchases. However, with the rapid recovery of oil - mill operations, inventory may accumulate, limiting price increases. Short - term participation is recommended, and prices will face pressure if import supply increases and demand does not improve [6] Palm Oil - MPOA data showed that December Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, causing market concerns. The short - term market sentiment is bullish, and short - term long positions are recommended, while paying attention to the impact of crude oil on palm oil [7] Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily output decreased slightly. The US reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion of crude oil, and international oil prices continued to fall. With frequent geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, short - term trading is advisable [8] PTA - Polyester inventory is still low. PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q1, and some polyester factories plan to reduce production. PX supply is relatively loose, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long - term. Short - term observation is recommended [8] Copper - Workers at Mantoverde Copper Mine in Chile continued to strike, and the mine was almost completely shut down. Copper prices entered high - level consolidation after reaching new highs. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts, and the supply is worried, while high prices have suppressed consumption. Copper prices may not peak yet, but short - term volatility may increase [9] Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, production - enterprise inventory and orders increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The domestic methanol market was weak, and the port basis weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash rose, production decreased, and factory inventory decreased. The float - glass market was stable, with slightly decreased production and inventory. The domestic soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] PVC - PVC prices rose, capacity utilization increased, and social inventory increased. Supply is abundant, but demand is weak both domestically and abroad, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] Silver - US employment data was weak, increasing economic pressure and negative factors for silver. The market expects no Fed interest - rate cut in January, and silver may follow gold in high - level fluctuations [12] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank conducted a 1.1 trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation, which was an equal - amount roll - over. Market expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may be postponed. Short - term funds decreased, which is beneficial to the bond market, and the bond market's oscillation may increase [12] Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January is 92%. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term. The interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面大幅上涨，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3187元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨76元/ 吨，涨幅为2.44%，持仓增加17.8万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨50元/ 吨至2980元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨60元/吨至3260元/吨，全国建材成交量12.53万吨。据钢谷 网数据，本周全国建材产量回升1.73万吨至357.93万吨，社库下降4.32万吨至454.8万吨，厂库增加6.97 万吨至300.45万吨，建材表需回落14.79万吨至355.28万吨。建材产量继续小幅回升，库存由降转增，表 需回落，数据表现偏中性。受供应端消息影响，昨日煤焦盘面价格出现涨停，铁矿石盘面也大幅上涨， 对螺纹走势形成较强提振。从供需看螺纹矛盾不大、驱动也不强，不过近期商品市场整体看涨氛围较为 浓厚。预计短期螺纹盘面或震荡偏强运行。 铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2026年01月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 828.0 | 27.0 | 3. 37% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 666. 581 | 25, 713 | | | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 6 元至 5457 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格 5295 元/吨（环比+5），山东地区现货价格 5225 元/吨（环比-8）。持仓方面，多 | | | | | 头持仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 30.0 万吨 | | | | | 上升 1.8 万吨，环比增加 6.00%；较去年 ...

一、贵金属期货 纽约期金突破4470美元/盎司，日内涨0.17%。 现货白银失守77美元/盎司，日内跌5.27%。 美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国上周EIA原油库存下降383万桶，彭博用户预计减少200万桶、 分析师预期下降133.18万桶，之前一周减少193.4万桶。 四、金融期货 数据公布后，美国国债收益率收窄此前跌幅；10年期国债收益率最新下跌2.7个基点，至4.152%。 五、农产品期货 （无相关内容） 六、宏观与市场影响 美国投资级美元债券发行规模本周已达880亿美元，创2020年以来最高。 美国10月和11月个人收入及PCE数据将于1月22日公布。 二、基本金属期货 镍连续主力合约日内跌2%，现报142460.00元。 三、能源与航运期货 三、能源与航运期货 美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，美国上周EIA原油库存下降383万桶，彭博用户预计减少200万桶、 分析师预期下降133.18万桶，之前一周减少193.4万桶。 四、金融期货 数据公布后，美国国债收益率收窄此前跌幅；10年期国债收益率最新下跌2.7个基点，至4.152%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...