新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场冷清，行情震荡整理 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-10日沪镍主力合约2603开于134520元/吨，收于133350元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.19%，当日成交量 为281436（-135669）手，持仓量为80242（-3734）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约高开后震荡下行，整体呈窄幅偏弱震荡格局。宏观方面，美元指数低位震荡反弹， 美债收益率上行，压制大宗商品风险偏好。临近春节假期，资金获利了结、主动减仓避险，流动性收紧，放大震 荡。基本面方面，不锈钢、新能源等下游企业陆续停工，刚需收缩，备货进入尾声。上期所仓单持续增加，供应 宽松压制价格。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场价格延续涨势，但市场交投清淡，买卖双方心理价差显著。菲律宾矿 山端报价维持坚挺，印尼市场则平稳运行，执行现有价格体系，整体市场缺乏新的重大消息指引。中国市场僵局 持续，面对持续上涨的矿价，下游工厂接受度极低，买卖价差巨大。以1.5%品位为例，卖方报盘高达68美元/湿吨， 而工厂普遍心理价位仅在63美元/湿吨左右。市场偶有基于长协或特定条件的成交，但难以反映广泛 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场成交仍明显偏淡 铅价反弹或难持续 现货方面：2026-02-10，LME铅现货升水为-49.30美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至16525 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化100元 /吨至16575元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/吨至16550元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化125元/吨至16600元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-10，沪铅主力合约开于16665元/吨，收于16665元/吨，较前一交易日变化80元/吨，全天交易日 成交58100手，较前一交易日变化8455手，全天交易日持仓42295手，手较前一交易日变化-8010手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16560元/吨。夜盘方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Report's Core View - The market has entered a pre - holiday state with stable spot discounts, low absolute price fluctuations, and few spot market transactions. Downstream开工 has significantly declined, but the seasonal performance is in sync with previous years without additional negative impacts. The supply pressure is not high, and although social inventory has entered the accumulation cycle, the absolute inventory value is not high. After the Fed Chairman's expected trading ended, the risk of a decline in the absolute zinc price has been released, and the depth of the off - season correction may be limited. The long - term expectations for consumption and the macro - economy are still positive, and it is mainly about risk avoidance in the short term before the long holiday [4] Summary of Related Contents by Directory Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$23.73 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 24,460 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 24,440 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price fell by 200 yuan/ton to 24,410 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 10, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,465 yuan/ton, closed at 24,455 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 93,513 lots, and the open interest was 60,049 lots. The highest price was 24,555 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,330 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 10, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 148,500 tons, a change of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 106,750 tons, with a change of - 175 tons from the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, port inventories remained high. China's pure benzene operating rate started to bottom out and rebound, and the willingness of reforming units to produce three benzenes increased. In terms of imports, the bottom of arrivals rebounded, and there was still pressure for shipments to China in the future. In the downstream, pick - up also rebounded from a low level, with the styrene operating rate bottoming out and rebounding, the caprolactam operating rate remaining at a low level, the phenol operating rate slightly falling from a high level, and the adipic acid and aniline operating rates performing well, with attention to sustainability [2]. - Styrene: The domestic operating rate is about to pass the lowest point. Sinochem Quanzhou is restarting, and Tianjin Bohua also has a restart expectation. Shandong Yuhuang may restart, and Jingbo also has a restart plan in March. Styrene production profit has started to peak and decline, and the market is worried that the supply may return more than expected under the current production profit. At the beginning of the week, styrene port inventories declined, and the seasonal inventory build - up that was long overdue before the Spring Festival did not materialize. In the downstream, the ABS operating rate further decreased, but the inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated; the PS continued the seasonal production cut cycle, and the inventory pressure was at a low level in the same period; the EPS operating rate performed well, and the finished product inventory was significantly reduced [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures on pure benzene's basis and inter - period spread, including the pure benzene main contract basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of pure benzene. It also shows similar data for styrene, such as the styrene main contract basis and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of styrene [7][14][16] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - It provides data on the processing fees of naphtha, the spreads between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and the spreads between different regions' pure benzene and styrene prices (e.g., FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, etc.), as well as the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [20][22][34] 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory in East China is 29.70 million tons (- 0.80 million tons), and the operating rate has started to bottom out and rebound. Styrene: The port inventory in East China is 96,200 tons (- 12,400 tons), the commercial inventory in East China is 54,000 tons (- 6,800 tons), and the operating rate is 70.0% (+ 0.7%) [1][2][37] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 371 yuan/ton (+ 188 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.24% (+ 2.98%). PS: The production profit is - 279 yuan/ton (+ 158 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 55.20% (- 0.40%). ABS: The production profit is - 631 yuan/ton (+ 171 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 64.40% (- 1.70%) [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 660 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the operating rate is 73.16% (- 0.41%). Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 716 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the phenol operating rate is 86.00% (- 2.00%). Aniline: The production profit is 1061 yuan/ton (- 73), and the operating rate is 89.04% (+ 0.51%). Adipic acid: The production profit is - 232 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the operating rate is 69.10% (+ 0.60%) [1]

化工日报 | 2026-02-11 原料价格坚挺，成本端支撑仍强 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16335元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨；NR主力合约13230元/吨，较前一日变动+80 元/吨；BR主力合约12860元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16150元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15280元/吨，较前一 日变动+80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1965美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1905 美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12600元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2026年1月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约10.1万辆，同比增长约40%。 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-11 EG主港延续累库，节前氛围偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3733元/吨（较前一交易日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.16%），EG华东市场现货价3625 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.28%），EG华东现货基差-110元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为93.5万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数11万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；2.9~2.23华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大，但卫星计划 2月转产，关注价格上涨后乙烯下游各品种估值的相对变化；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月 底前后进口压力将有所缓解，1~2月压力仍大，3月将有小幅去库。需求端，春节检修陆续兑现，织造负荷和聚酯 负荷加速下滑，刚需支撑转弱。 策略 单边：中性。年前氛围偏弱，低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints. The large - scale inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we need to wait for the supply - demand game [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8430 yuan/ton and closed at 8375 yuan/ton, a change of (- 130) yuan/ton or (- 1.53)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 303387 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 9, 2026, was 18117 lots, a change of 1368 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 56.2 tons, an increase of 1.44% from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be weak. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market was mainly focused on inventory clearance [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and fell, opening at 48815 yuan/ton and closing at 48950 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38617 (38347 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 3991 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a month - on - month change of 2.40%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, with a month - on - month change of 3.77%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 20100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, with a month - on - month change of - 11.66% [3] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components remained stable. There were no quotes and transactions for mainstream polysilicon products this week. Market sentiment was more cautious than last week, new orders were completely stagnant, and only a few companies had small - scale exploratory inquiries. Downstream companies were mainly digesting existing inventories, and the purchasing willingness was extremely low [3][4] Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastics market is oscillating. The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations and the resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums may support oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. The supply of PE is under pressure with high - level开工率 and more imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season. PP's supply pressure is currently acceptable, but the demand is expected to decline seasonally [3][4]. - The current supply - demand structure of PP is still weak, and the cost side fluctuates sharply. For both PE and PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the inventory accumulation amplitude after the Spring Festival [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,775 yuan/ton (+54), PP main contract at 6,688 yuan/ton (+58). LL North China spot was 6,550 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 225 yuan/ton (-124), LL East China basis - 75 yuan/ton (-54), PP East China basis - 8 yuan/ton (-58) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 85.9% (+0.6%), PP开工率 73.9% (-0.9%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was - 192.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PP oil - based production profit - 452.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PDH - based PP production profit - 462.7 yuan/ton (+22.5) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 118.1 yuan/ton (-34.0), PP import profit - 304.7 yuan/ton (+58.1), PP export profit - 62.5 US dollars/ton (-2.1) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 64.6% (+0.4%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The plastics market oscillates due to weakened macro - sentiment and weak fundamentals. The cost support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply side has pressure with more restarted devices and more imported resources. The demand side is in the off - season with declining downstream开工率. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is under pressure [3]. - **PP**: There is still short - term cost support. The supply pressure is currently acceptable with some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP price spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a clear off - season pattern, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. Glass and soda ash markets also show a weakening trend due to shrinking downstream demand. The double - silicon market in the black sector is in a state of consolidation [1][3] - The glass market has an increasing expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which provides some support to the market. The soda ash supply pressure is increasing with new projects, and the downstream consumption is seasonally declining [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly, but the inventory pressure is still high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve marginally [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly yesterday, and the trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival. The spot price was stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to show a weakening trend, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the traditional off - season, the spot market mainly had transactions based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: There is a strong expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved, and attention should be paid to cold - repair progress, terminal demand recovery, and coal price impact on costs [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and the supply pressure is increasing with new projects. Downstream consumption is seasonally declining, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Attention should be paid to new project situations [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures weakened yesterday, and the spot market was filled with a festive atmosphere. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures fluctuated downward, the market was weak, and the sentiment of cautious waiting and seeing was strong. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals have improved, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills, the demand is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 二、图表分析 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉下降 0.03%，报收 61.59 分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.27%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 14655 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 432 手至 70 万手。国际市场方面，宏观层 面仍有扰动，美国 12 月零售数据公布，低于市场预期，3 月降息预期小幅升温。 | | | | 国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约冲高回落，持仓小幅下降。消息面，昨日中国棉花 | | | 棉花 | 信息网发布意向种植面积调研报告，2026 年我国棉花一项种植面积同比下降 1.7%， | 震荡 | | | 全国棉花产量预计同比下降 5.8%。整体来看，我们认为节前郑棉上行驱动有限。 | | | | 随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下 | | | | 近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时间与空间均有限，市场成交转淡。综合来看， | | | | ...