Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the losses from its historical high and maintaining a bullish outlook due to a favorable interest rate environment and diminishing bearish fundamentals [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened at $4067.47 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $4040.02, and then rebounded strongly, hitting a weekly high of $4226.59 before closing at $4217.40, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $186.57 and a gain of $149.93, or 3.69% [1][3]. Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions indicated a strong support for a rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 40% to over 80%, alongside geopolitical tensions and disappointing retail sales data, which further fueled expectations for a rate cut and supported gold prices [3][5]. - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to favor loose monetary policy, could also enhance market expectations for future rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch this week include the U.S. November ADP employment figures and the September core PCE price index, with expectations that weaker data will bolster rate cut predictions and support gold prices [3][5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly chart, gold prices have shown a strong rebound, supported by the 10-week moving average, with bullish momentum indicated by the upward extension of the Bollinger Bands [7]. - The daily chart shows that after consolidating at the middle Bollinger Band, gold prices have rebounded strongly, with multiple moving averages now acting as support, indicating a continued bullish outlook [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with expectations of a new bull market driven by low interest rates, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, with a target of $5000 per ounce being considered feasible [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a high probability of a December rate cut at 84.9% but hawkish comments from officials creating uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices recently peaked at $4162 before a sharp decline below $4150, reflecting market fluctuations between easing expectations and cautious sentiment [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, projecting prices to reach $4900 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and diversified investor demand [1] - Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4450, citing a positive structural outlook and favorable supply-demand dynamics [1] - Analysts from Giant believe that the global sentiment is leaning towards bullishness for gold, with targets set at $4535 and $4885 in the upcoming year [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Giant Gold Industry emphasizes three key capabilities for investors: 1. Regulatory platform empowerment, ensuring safety and additional services through its AA-class membership in the Hong Kong Gold Exchange [1] 2. Strategy empowerment, providing real-time, precise market strategies through a team of experienced analysts and the GoldGPT AI assistant for comprehensive trading support [2] 3. Comprehensive risk control system, including independent fund management, 24/7 customer support during extreme market conditions, and promotional activities to support trading [4] Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The trend of de-dollarization is evident, with global central banks purchasing over 200 tons of gold for several consecutive quarters, providing structural support for gold prices [6] - Despite fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's easing process, the overall direction remains clear, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [6] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, continue to create demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected in the week of the 21st, and refined oil inventories rebounded across the board, with the data being bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased overall, but there are still many uncertainties regarding Russia's stance on the U.S.-proposed agreement. The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are about to take effect, and although the total Russian oil exports have not declined significantly, the proportion of oil with unknown destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. Considering the significant inventory build - up pressure in the 4th quarter, the overall view on crude oil is bearish. Operationally, consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $58.05, closed at $58.55, with a high of $58.72, a low of $57.66, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 20.41 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $61.94, closed at $62.44, with a high of $62.60, a low of $61.53, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 34.25 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 442.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 447.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 448.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 7.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish strategy on crude oil. Consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [7] 2. Industry News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium exported over 65.5 million barrels of crude oil through its system from the beginning of the year to November 21. The UK government will allow new oil and gas production activities near existing oil fields but will not issue new licenses for exploring new oil and gas fields. A new oil and gas price mechanism will replace the energy profit tax, which is expected to end in April 2030 or earlier. European Commission President von der Leyen said the European Commission is ready to submit a legal text on using frozen Russian assets [10] 3. Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, U.S. gasoline consumption, and U.S. diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][12][15][21]

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are aggressively purchasing gold, with a net buying rate of 1.5 tons per hour, leading to a significant increase in gold prices and a strategic shift in investment behavior towards gold as a safe asset [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Central banks have purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, marking five consecutive years of net buying, which is more than double the scale during the 2015 bull market [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China has been the largest buyer, increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, surpassing 2,568 tons [1]. - The global central bank gold purchases have transitioned from isolated actions to a coordinated global movement, with significant contributions from countries like Poland and Kazakhstan [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of November 26, 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices have surged to 1,312 CNY per gram, reflecting a 20% increase since the beginning of the year [3]. - The demand for gold has surged, with a notable increase in inquiries about gold bars and ETFs, particularly among younger investors [3][12]. - The global annual gold production is approximately 3,500 tons, with central bank purchases now accounting for 20% of this production, up from 10% in 2015 [6]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates has historically correlated with rising gold prices, and the current economic climate suggests a potential cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by 2026 [8][9]. - The decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, driven by U.S. government policies and economic uncertainties, has prompted central banks to increase their gold holdings as a strategic response [6][12]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The perception of gold has shifted from a speculative asset to a strategic component of investment portfolios, with a notable decrease in correlation with U.S. equities and bonds [14]. - Major institutional investors, including the largest gold ETF (SPDR), have increased their holdings significantly, indicating a broader acceptance of gold as a hedge against market volatility [14]. - Retail investors are advised to consider non-leveraged gold ETFs or physical gold bars for long-term investment, while cautioning against high-premium gold jewelry [14].

一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 58.05 | 58.89 | 59.06 | 57.42 | 1.43 | 21.86 | | Brent | 主力 | 61.9 | 62.73 | 62.92 | 61.34 | 1.28 | 27.47 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 447.9 | 448.6 | 450.6 | 443.3 | 0.67 | 8.62 | 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures. ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, increasing by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have risen to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The U.S. government's reopening and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, leading to a decline in overnight financing rates [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to continue their upward momentum, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark in the short term [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices peaked at $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce, maintaining high volatility [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, rising by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3]. Domestic Gold Consumption - Domestic gold consumption is on the rise, with major retailers in Shanghai reporting prices for gold jewelry at approximately 1315 CNY per gram, marking recent highs [5]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have surged to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The reopening of the U.S. government and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, further supporting gold prices [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rebound in the short term, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support upward movement in gold prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price rebounded overnight, with the SC01 contract rising 0.67% during the day. The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price rebounded overnight, and the SC01 contract rose 0.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The US sanctions on Russian oil have come into effect, and the negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan before the deadline this Thursday is still uncertain [2] - The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. Russian energy facilities are continuously attacked, and the exports have declined slightly recently. The US sanctions on Russia have come into effect. It is expected that its crack spread and monthly spread will be repaired recently [3] - The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The Middle East region will maintain a high level of exports to Asia due to factors such as the decline in power generation demand and the steady production increase of OPEC+. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently. The RFCC devices in the Asia-Pacific region have not fully recovered, and the Dangote maintenance has been advanced. As the gasoline and diesel spread declines due to the increase in refinery start-up, low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The latest commercial inventory destocking continues to slow down, and the year-on-year amplitude of social inventory has shown an expanding trend [4] - The recent stable and rising spot price in Shandong has boosted the futures market. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the dollar maintaining a narrow range ahead of key U.S. data releases, while gold remains supported by Fed policy signals and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including PPI, retail sales, consumer confidence, and employment indicators, will strengthen market judgments regarding the Fed's December policy path [5] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold [3][5] Group 2 - Fed officials have recently communicated a more dovish stance, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to approximately 80% [2] - The delay in the release of the November employment report has led to discussions about the potential postponement of the Fed's meeting, impacting policy expectations and market volatility [2][5] - Gold prices have strengthened in the context of rising rate cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high trading range near $4150 [3][4]