Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with Shanghai aluminum futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 25,840.00 yuan/ton and a rise of 3.08% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai aluminum is characterized by a strong upward movement, driven by geopolitical risks and increased market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, leading to a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - Concerns over potential disruptions in aluminum production in the Middle East due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the aluminum market, with a noted increase in prices driven by both events and capital [2] Group 2 - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with operating rates above 96%, while some overseas producers face shutdowns due to power constraints, highlighting a rigid global supply situation [2] - Demand for aluminum is being supported by high growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects, which is further enhanced by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio [2] - The market is currently in a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with short-term price pressures anticipated due to inventory accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting a cautious outlook [2]

现在的黄金根本不看技术，不看经验， 只看"勇气"。有没有敢于上车的勇气。 回头看看以前的上涨都是小弟，转眼金价5600美元了，每一天都像坐火箭一样。 1月美联储没有降息，维持原有利率不变，这不是重点，重点是市场已经完全忽视了任何利空，只要调整就是为了更大幅度的上涨。 鲍威尔刚讲完特朗普马上浇一盆冷水，一切的规则在特朗普眼里都会阻挡美国再次伟大，他从来不被规则所束缚。 2026年5月鲍威尔任期结束，货币政策的方向极有可能偏向特朗普支撑的大幅度降息，市场已经开始为接下来更大幅度的降息做准备。 地缘风险，贸易冲突，货币政策集中引发了对法币不信任，市场已经不再听任何故事，黄金和白银市场空头几乎死绝了，包括机构在内，没有几个敢和市 场叫板。 过去的经验是你的英雄，成就过你，当下的行情就会毁了你，以前数波浪，找指标共振，都已经全部失效，极强单边牛市行情往往会重新定价历史。 说一下今天黄金行情： 一夜之间金价加速上涨至5600美元，今年一个月时间涨了1200美元，上一次单边持续1000多美金还是去年8-10月，用了近2个月的时间。 现在上涨的速度越来越快，时间被压缩，没有所谓的压力，更没有预知的高点，形态只有走出来才确认高 ...

Production - The S/X production line will cease next quarter, with the Fremont factory being converted to produce 1 million Optimus robots annually [1] - Future vehicle models will be designed for full autonomy, eliminating steering wheels and pedals [1] FSD and Robotaxi - Tesla has launched a paid, driverless Robotaxi service in Austin, with over 500 operational vehicles in the Bay Area and Austin, experiencing exponential monthly growth [1][32] - FSD coverage is expected to reach 25-50% of the U.S. by year-end, pending regulatory approval [1][31] - Nearly 1.1 million FSD users exist, with 70% opting for a one-time purchase; the transition to a subscription model will impact automotive gross margins in the short term [1][12] Chips - Elon Musk is dedicating significant time to the AI5 chip, which is currently a core bottleneck for Tesla; the AI6 chip is expected to launch within a year [1][33] - The company plans to build its own TerraFab facility to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with chip production [1][33] Optimus - Optimus 3 will be released in a few months, showcasing advanced capabilities such as learning new tasks through observation, voice, and video [1][28] - Production of Optimus robots will begin this year, with significant output expected by year-end [1][11] Energy Storage - Tesla plans to launch Megapack 3 and Megablock by 2026, anticipating continued global deployment growth [2] - The company is significantly increasing capital expenditures, projected to exceed $20 billion for six major factories and AI capabilities [2][19] Financial Overview - Tesla's cash and investments exceed $44 billion, with plans to utilize internal funds initially [2][20] - The company aims for a record annual revenue of $12.8 billion from energy storage by 2025, reflecting a 26.6% year-over-year increase [11][13] Market Competition - China is identified as a strong competitor in manufacturing and AI, often underestimated by external observers [3][40] Company Mission - Tesla's mission has been updated to "Amazing Abundance," reflecting optimism for a future of universal high income rather than basic income [4][5] - The company aims to enhance safety and reduce costs while ensuring environmental protection and access to quality healthcare [5]

当前，美国"亚伯拉罕.林肯"号航母打击群已抵近伊朗，为其军事选项提供支持。美方正调遣"爱国 者""萨德"等防空系统，并计划在美中央司令部辖区举行多日空中演习。伊朗外长阿拉格齐则强硬回 应，称武装部队已做好"立即而有力"反击准备。 情报显示，伊朗政权因去年美以打击及国内抗议处于历史性弱势，特朗普甚至暗示希望哈梅内伊下台。 但分析指出，即便最高领袖被清除，继任者仍为强硬派，且安全部门无倒戈迹象，政权更迭风险极高。 此外，伊朗拥有较完善的防空、导弹及无人机体系，德黑兰距海岸较远，实施"决定性打击"难度远超委 内瑞拉模式。 今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1237.33元/克，较前一交易日上涨27.15元，涨幅 2.24%，日内呈现延续上涨走势。当日开盘价报1210.03元/克，盘中最高触及1249.45元/克，最低下探至 1209.79元/克。 【要闻速递】 据报道，特朗普正考虑对伊朗发动新打击，此前美伊关于限制核计划与弹道导弹的初步谈判破裂。特朗 普l要求伊朗重返谈判，警告下次攻击"比去年夏天的更严重"(去年美军曾打击伊朗三处核设施)。 摘要今日周四(1月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of strength [1][5]. - The methanol futures in the domestic market are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday, January 29, 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view for methanol is oscillation [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for methanol is strength, and the reference view is that it will run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply "hard - contraction" is the strongest support factor for the recent upward movement of methanol prices, with Iran, a major import source, facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to a recovery in port spot prices, a stronger basis, and increased confidence among long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's tough statements, may further intensify the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium on methanol [1][5]. - Although the domestic methanol futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday night with a slight decline, the retracement space was limited [5].

Core Conclusion - The article discusses the current trends in gold prices, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the dovish stance of potential Federal Reserve chair nominee Riedel and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][6][7]. Gold Price Trends - As of January 28, 2026, the international spot gold price ranged from $4885 to $4930 per ounce, with a daily fluctuation of $45 [3]. - Domestic base gold prices were reported between 1098 and 1105 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of 7 yuan per gram compared to January 27 [3]. - Retail prices for brand gold jewelry, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, were between 1495 and 1508 yuan per gram, with processing fees ranging from 15 to 35 yuan per gram [3][2]. Macroeconomic Influences - The primary driver of gold price increases is the dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve, with Riedel's nomination probability rising to 47%, leading to market speculation of three rate cuts this year [6]. - The dollar index fell to 101.85, which directly contributed to the rise in gold prices denominated in dollars [6]. - Despite the Fed maintaining interest rates, the market anticipates a shift in monetary policy that could favor gold investments [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have acted as amplifiers for gold price increases, reinforcing bullish sentiment among investors [7]. - Ongoing discussions between Egyptian officials and U.S.-Iran representatives, as well as communications regarding the Ukraine crisis, highlight persistent global geopolitical risks [7]. Investment Options - The article outlines various investment options in gold, including physical gold bars, paper gold, and brand gold bars, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages [8]. - Physical gold bars offer tangible assets but require storage and can be less liquid, while paper gold allows for easier trading without storage costs [8]. Market Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with six out of eight analysts predicting upward movement due to dovish Fed expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks [9]. - The target for international gold prices is set at $5000 per ounce, contingent on the confirmation of Riedel's nomination and U.S. inflation data trends [9].

上期所通知显示，自2026年1月30日（星期五）收盘结算时起，镍期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整 为11%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%。 氧化铝、铅、锌期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一 般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。 不锈钢、铸造铝合金、螺纹钢、热轧卷板期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保 证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%。 1月28日，上海期货交易所发布调整镍等期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知。同时， 上海黄金交易所发布调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知。 上金所通知显示，上金所对白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。自2026年1月30日 （星期五）收盘清算时起，Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从19%调整为20%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限 制从18%调整为19%。 上金所还要求各会员提高风险防范意识，做细做好风险应急预案，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理 控制仓位，理性投资，确保市场稳定健康运行。 数据显示，北京时间1月28日，伦敦现货黄金价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,360 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.24% increase. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 80 yuan/ton. Driven by the collective stabilization and rebound of the energy - chemical sector, the rubber price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,348 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,294 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.43% increase. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 21 yuan/ton. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and rising significantly on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 463.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 446.5 yuan/barrel, closing with a 2.49% increase. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium rebounded, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the production scheduling of the devices increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production scheduling. The full - steel tire had increased shipment pressure, and some enterprises had a moderate production control phenomenon, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" inventory preparation stage, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production scheduling to reserve inventory and meet post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new historical high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In addition, the dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant increase of 14.386 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.478 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | +155 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,305 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,339 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 427.3 yuan/barrel | - 2.4 yuan/barrel | 460.3 yuan/barrel | +13.6 yuan/barrel | - 33.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][22][24][26]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][43][45][47][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to its lowest since 2014, the dollar index hit a four - year low, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased. Domestically, A - shares entered a phase of volume contraction and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remained positive. Industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 showed year - on - year growth, and the full - year profit in 2025 had its first increase in four years [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold prices hit new highs, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a 50 - year low [4]. - Copper: The decline in the US consumer confidence index led to a fall in copper prices. It was expected to maintain a high - level range - bound oscillation in the short term [5][6]. - Aluminum: The sharp decline in the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices, which were expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. - Alumina: The supply pressure decreased slightly, and alumina prices were expected to stabilize [8][9]. - Cast aluminum: The supply - demand stalemate continued, and cast aluminum prices were expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Zinc: Supported by the weakening dollar and cost factors, zinc prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [11]. - Lead: Refinery production cuts provided some support, and lead prices were expected to remain weak with possible fluctuations around the integer level [12][13]. - Tin: Regulatory measures were offset by the sharp fall of the dollar, and tin prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, but there was a risk of correction [14]. - Steel products (Screw and coil): Before the Spring Festival, demand was limited, and steel prices were expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron ore: Supply pressure persisted, and iron ore prices were expected to oscillate downward [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Spot trading was sluggish, and futures prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Attention should be paid to the progress in South American production areas, and soybean meal prices were expected to continue to oscillate [19][20]. - Palm oil: It was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to geopolitical factors, policy support, and supply - demand changes [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interest, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [22] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and spreads. Similar data are presented for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [23][25][27][29]