| Millio | 国投期货 | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文文 | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 一季度全球石油库存增加2%，二季度以来累增2.3%累库速度基本延续，其中原油库存累增2.4%、成品油库存累增2.2%。库存 表现符合平衡表宽松预期，三季度旺季累库幅度或有放缓，但在OPEC+增产周期及贸易战对需求的风险依然存在的背景下供大 于求的宽松形势难改。本轮反弹宏观面、供需面的支撑力度有限，溢价点集中在中东地缘风险，伊以停火协议的达成令单边价 格、内外盘价差、外盘柴油裂解等风险溢价面临 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a slight decline. With the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a significant decline. Due to the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East subsided, and the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, declining weakly, and a significant decline. With the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and the subsiding of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. Under the suppression of bearish sentiment, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures will maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [9]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decline of 7.56 percentage points [9]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [10]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year slight increase of about 1% [10]. Methanol - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 293,600 tons [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [11]. - As of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures margin was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 596 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 72,600 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week ending June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59,900 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 49. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 300,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [13]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [14]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a trend of stabilizing in a volatile manner, and the bullish force in the market has increased. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [15] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 13,665 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | 185 yuan/ton | +335 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,665 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan/ton | 2,379 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 286 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 531.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 518.6 yuan/barrel | - 55.9 yuan/barrel | +12.8 yuan/barrel | +55.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts including crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

所以，洗盘的行情不要看的太远，见好就收即可，别总想着拿长线，不然到手的利润又没了，波段交易就行，等待市场走出来单边之后再跟随趋 势。 反复洗盘，来回横跳，地缘风险也没能托起黄金大涨，短期看空也没能让金价跳水，一会给多头希望，一会给空头幻想，转眼两个月过去了，震 荡到现在还没能结束。 最近，地缘风险不断升级，避险情绪未能彻底点燃，以色列和伊朗的上空火箭横飞，美国已经开始陷入以色列战争当中，给未来增加了更多的不 确定性。 不过，这一次战争的影响对市场并不大，周一原油和黄金全线跳空高开，之后就一路阴跌向下，中途出现几次强势反弹，但明显获利盘选择离场 观望，导致金价上涨后又遇滑铁卢。 两个方面： 首先，战争持续在进行，但对市场的影响并不持续，俄乌冲突到现在三年多过去了，巴以战争也成了持久战，市场现在已经对地缘风险产生抗体 了，除非美国和伊朗背后大哥普京正式开干，那肯定能带动黄金起飞。 其次，美联储货币政策才是重点，到底降不降息，什么时候降，降多少？通胀已经下降了，鲍威尔到现在金口不松，推迟降息时间和周期这可能 会给市场减少买入的底气。 最后，各国央行还能不能像去年一样加码买黄金，自2024年11月5日特朗普上任后，央 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped sharply as the market's risk aversion decreased following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, resulting in a significant decline in global inflation risks and a shift in investor preference towards higher-yielding assets like stocks [1] - Market sentiment has improved, and it is likely that funds will continue to flow out of gold, making it less attractive in the near term [1] - Technical analysis indicates a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term support at the long-term moving average [1] Oil Market - Oil prices reversed their upward trend due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which had previously threatened oil transportation [2] - The likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 50% to 4% as the conflict subsides, removing the rationale for rising oil prices [2] - Despite the reduction in geopolitical risks, the fundamental outlook for oil remains weak due to oversupply, and OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, limiting price rebounds [2] - Technical indicators suggest a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term resistance at $67.20 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown signs of consolidation with small fluctuations, supported by long-term moving averages [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a clear upward shift in price action, suggesting a potential for continued volatility around the support level of $4.80 [3] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is at a high price level with a bullish moving average arrangement, indicating a strong potential for continuation of the upward trend [4] - However, the index may face a pullback after failing to challenge previous highs, with short-term support around 38,130 [4]

热点事件 6月24日，受伊以"停火"消息提振，A港股强势反弹，上证指数上涨1.15%创近三月新高，创业板指涨 2.30%，大金融领涨，金融科技、无人驾驶、算力、AI应用、消费电子涨幅居前，全A成交额1.45万 亿，近4700股飘红。截止15:05，恒生指数和恒生科技涨幅均超2%。那么今日市场为何情绪高涨？当下 应该如何布局？我们简评如下，供投资者参考。股民福利！点此免费领取新浪财经vip会员>> 市场动态 • 伊以宣布"停火"，全球风险偏好回升。今日伊朗与以色列宣布正式"停火"，结束持续12天的军事冲 突，此举极大缓解了市场对地缘风险升级的担忧，避险情绪退潮，亚太股市普涨，黄金、原油下跌。 • 美联储释放鸽派信号，降息预期或提前。近期特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔降息，同时多位美联储官员表态 偏"鸽"；美联储副主席鲍曼表示"若通胀压力可控，支持7月降息"，理事沃勒也表示赞成7月份考虑降息 的说法，市场降息预期小幅升温（7月概率升至23%，9月达62%）。 • 数据要素政策利好，提振市场情绪。今日"数据要素×"系列发布会上，证监会表示将稳步开展"数据要 素×资本市场"专项试点，覆盖证券、期货及区域股权市场，央行同步表态将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical impact on stock index futures is controllable, and the A-share market is in a stage of oscillation to find a direction. The core contradiction lies in the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events on the fundamentals. The marginal flow of funds determines the short - term market direction [1][7]. - For stock index options, sentiment repair continuity can be arranged. The trading volume of the options market increased, and the sentiment of each variety rebounded slightly. The defensive sentiment weakened, and the volatility reached the lowest level this year. It is advisable to use collar strategies or bull spreads and also consider light - position double - buying [2][8]. - In the case of treasury bond futures, the profit - taking sentiment may increase. The treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. Although the market's risk - aversion sentiment may have increased due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the increase was limited. With the approaching of the end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance, the market is cautious about the capital side, and the 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market oscillated and recovered yesterday, with the whole A - index rising 0.85%. The computer, military, and coal sectors led the gains, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion. The number of daily limit stocks increased to 83 [7]. - **Key Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 34.50 points, - 30.78 points, - 48.37 points, and - 76.82 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.74 points, 6.14 points, 2.74 points, and - 12.03 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 18334 lots, 12339 lots, 6879 lots, and 12238 lots [7]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical risk is the main variable in the news, but the market expects a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The core contradiction in the A - share market is the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events. The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has suppressed the sentiment of the pharmaceutical and new - consumption sectors [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market opened low and closed high yesterday. The sentiment of small - cap stocks recovered. The trading volume of the options market was 4082 million yuan, a 5.08% increase from the previous trading day, with medium - to - high liquidity and active intraday trading [2][8][9]. - **Key Data**: The PCR of the 50ETF and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different rebound strengths, with the 50ETF reaching the level at the end of May [8]. - **Logic**: The downward sentiment of each variety has eased, and the defensive sentiment has weakened. The volatility has reached the lowest level this year, and the cost - effectiveness of short - volatility is low [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use collar strategies, bull spreads, and light - position double - buying [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. The T main contract continued to decline in price after opening, rebounded in the afternoon, but still closed slightly lower. The TL main contract opened higher in the morning but turned down during the day [3][8][10]. - **Key Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 22.05 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 34.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - **Logic**: The conflict between Israel and Iran may have increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment, but the increase was limited. The stock market strengthened during the day, showing a stock - bond seesaw effect. The capital side was relatively stable, but the market was cautious due to the approaching end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance. The 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend strategy of oscillation, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies, appropriately focus on the widening of the basis for basis strategies, and choose to steepen the curve in the medium - term for curve strategies [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On June 23, 2025, the initial value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the same as the previous value; the initial value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the predicted value [11]. - On June 24, 2025, the German June IFO business climate index and the US June Conference Board consumer confidence index are yet to be announced [11]. - Other economic data such as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index final value are also scheduled for release in the following days [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macroeconomics**: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains subdued, she may support a rate cut by the Fed in July. If inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens, the FOMC can cut interest rates [12]. - **Real Estate**: The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a service allowing employees to use their housing provident fund to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second - hand houses is under development and will be launched soon [12]. - **Stablecoins**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set relatively strict standards for stablecoin issuers, with a high entry threshold. It is expected that only a few licenses will be issued initially, and the licensed stablecoins will have specific uses such as cross - border trade [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data is mentioned in the content, but no specific detailed summaries are provided in the text other than the data presented in the market views section [13][17][29].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 180°转弯。伊朗有限报复，局势没有扩大，特朗普称两国将停火，市场预计中 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 东问题可控，不过 7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确定性仍然较多， | | | | 长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。目前，金银比价目前回归正常区间，目前白 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大，操 | | | | 作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 伊朗和以色列已经在美方主导下实现全面停火，原油价格大跌，地缘风险缓和，市 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 场风险偏好恢复，LME 铜库存续创年内新低，引发安全供应担忧，短期铜站稳 7 万 | | | | 8 关口，建议逢低轻仓试多。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 海外地缘风险缓和，市场风险偏好回升，海内外锌库存去化，短期宏微共振， | | 锌 | 反弹 | ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain moderate, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman [3][4] - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a shift in focus towards potential labor market weakness [3] - Current data shows that Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation, allowing for a more favorable environment for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and a 78% probability for September [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential retaliation against U.S. military facilities, is causing market fluctuations but has not significantly impacted oil prices [6][8] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, analysts believe that the global oil supply remains sufficient, which helps to manage the associated risks [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market's risk aversion has quickly receded, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil futures hitting the limit down at a 9% decline, currently priced at 518.6 yuan per barrel [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran agreed to a ceasefire proposal related to the conflict with Israel after a conversation with the Qatari Prime Minister, although the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that no formal agreement has been reached [1]. - The current round of Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of easing without causing disruptions to oil supply, which may lead to a bearish trend in oil prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic and supply-demand support for the recent oil price increase is weak, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East being the primary factor for the price premium [1]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss potential production increases in early July, which may put pressure on oil prices in the near term [2]. - Factors such as low inventory levels, seasonal demand peaks, and declining shale oil supply may limit the speed of oil price declines, suggesting a shift from an upward trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation before a potential downward trend [1][2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The oil trading sector is facing mid-term layout opportunities, with geopolitical disturbances potentially having pulse-like impacts, necessitating risk control in trading [2]. - In scenarios where geopolitical factors have limited escalation, a supply-demand perspective may favor short-selling at higher price points [2].