晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工率承压 警惕对价格负反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 2 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。宏观上 7 月 1 日，美国国会参议院通过全面 减税和支出法案，并提交众议院，美国众议院将于 2 日就法案进行辩论和 投票。市场关注美国就业数据以判断美联储的政策走向。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价 ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看平权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向下、估值偏低且 呈现资金流入状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向上； 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上。 资产配置组合表现跟踪： 从组合的历史表现来看，根据Wind数据测算，2025年6月固定比例+宏观指标+技术指标组合的收益率 1.06%；2006年4月至今，该组合的年化收益率为11.86%，年化波动率为6.96%，最大回撤为9.06%； 2025年6月波动率控制+宏观指标+技术指标组合、风险平价+宏观指标+技术指标组合的收益率分别为 0.99%、0.62%；2006年4月至今，两个组合的年化收益率分别为9.33%、9.65%，年化波 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.51 | 14.09 | DR007 | 1.91 | 20.92 | | | GC001 | 1.46 | -68.00 | GC007 | 1.58 | -11.00 | | 10 GD | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | I | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | 0.50 | | N | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.24 | -5.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1310亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the stock market remains stable despite the impending end of the tariff suspension period on July 9, with analysts expecting President Trump to extend the deadline based on his historical pattern of retreating from threats [1][4][6] - The S&P 500 index recently achieved its best quarterly performance since December 2023, surpassing the 6200-point mark, while the Nasdaq 100 index recorded its best quarterly performance since March 2023, driven primarily by technology stocks [1][3] - Institutional investors, who had been cautious since April, are beginning to increase their exposure to higher-risk areas of the market, reflecting a growing confidence among traders [2][3] Group 2 - The "smart money" is entering the market as earnings expectations stabilize following a significant drop in April, with systematic strategy funds increasing their stock risk exposure despite remaining underweight compared to historical averages [3][4] - Barclays' global equity strategist highlights positive factors supporting the economy, including regulatory easing in banking, continued investment in AI by large tech companies, and a $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill passed by the Senate [4][6] - Despite the optimism, there are concerns about the potential for high tariffs to impact costs for companies and consumers in the future, indicating that market risks have not entirely dissipated [5][6]

2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：基本面偏承压 | 6 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 9 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 11 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 2 日 黄金：降息预期升温 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、报道称欧盟愿意接受美国对多类商品 10%关税 ...

第三个时间点是12月，这个月市场走势通常是先涨后跌，中旬是关键分水岭。因为到了年底，公募和私 募机构都忙着排名，上旬就开始陆续出货以锁定排名。所以，若12月上旬市场上涨，及时减仓准没错， 否则很可能坐过山车，导致利润回吐。 第四个时间点是监管出手之时，其对市场影响巨大。一旦监管提出要打造慢牛行情、打击题材炒作、给 市场降温，游资就会迅速撤离。若投资者此时反应迟缓，大概率会亏损。 最后一个，也是最重要的时间点，是提及引导中长期资金入市之时。仔细观察会发现，每次这一说法出 现，A股就会下跌。要是投资者信以为真，那就可能成为入市接盘的中长期资金。仔细想想，如果短期 就能引入资金入市，又何必提及中长期呢？所以，别轻易在这个时候入场。 （原标题：和讯投顾郑邯：每年有5个关键时间点，最后一个最为坑人） 7月1日，和讯投顾郑邯表示，每年有5个时间点，股民账户资金变动较大，即便牛市也难幸免，尤其最 后一个时间点最为坑人。 第一个时间点是每年4月中下旬，跌停潮几乎成惯例，是股民的噩梦时段。此时是年报集中披露期，一 些上市公司之前描绘的美好蓝图和讲述的故事纷纷被戳穿。虽然从指数看，下跌幅度或许不算特别夸 张，但股民账户的盈亏情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Liu Kun, Chairman of the Social Security Fund, and representatives from six foreign investment management institutions focused on global macroeconomic conditions and the progress of China's high-quality development and high-level opening-up [1] Group 1: Meeting Overview - Liu Kun introduced the advancements in China's high-quality development and encouraged foreign institutions to expand their business in China [1] - Representatives from the participating institutions shared their experiences and perspectives on operating in China, as well as insights on global macroeconomic trends and asset allocation [1] - Liu Kun expressed gratitude for the insights shared by the representatives and emphasized the importance of continued communication and exchange [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

以下是 2025 年 6 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：6 月国内经济增长动能延续稳健态势。预计 6 月国内 CPI 环比约为-0.1%，CPI 同比小幅回升至零； 6 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.3%，PPI 同比继续回落至-3.4%；预计 6 月工业增加值同比持平上月的 5.8%；国内 社会消费品零售总额同比小幅回落至 6.0%；固定资产投资累计同比小幅回落至 3.6%；国内美元计价的出 口同比或回落至 2.0%左右。 表1：2025 年 6 月宏观数据预测 | 国信宏观固收研究 | 2025-06 国信预测 | 前期数据 | | --- | --- | --- | | GDP（当季，%） | 5.0 | 5.4 | | CPI（当月，%） | 0.0 | -0.1 | | PPI（当月，%） | -3.4 | -3.3 | | 工业增加值（当月，%） | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资（累计，%） | 3.6 | 3.7 | | 社会消费品零售总额（当月，%） | 6.0 | 6.4 | | 出口（当月，%） | 2.0 | 4.8 | | 进口（当月，%） | -2.5 | -3.4 | | ...

2025年07月02日 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：基本面偏承压 | 7 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 12 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：现货成交清淡，震荡偏弱运行 | 14 | | 工业硅：上游供应扰动增加，关注市场情绪 | 16 | | 多晶硅：市场消息持续扰动，关注上方空间 | 16 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 硅铁：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 锰硅：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 焦炭：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 23 | | 焦煤：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 23 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 25 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 28 | | P ...