研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺卷跳空高开，收阴线。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示，中国的 | | | | | 出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对 | | | | | 产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估，并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行， | | | | | 中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部：目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元，有力保障 | | | | | 了商品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大，全国已有 15 个省区市二手 | | | | | 住宅的交易量超过新房。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 3、据了解，自国家发 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 116 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity and stabilize interest rates, indicating a willingness to support economic recovery [1] - The operation had a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 116 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - Multiple trust companies received notifications to investigate their reverse repurchase leverage ratios, reflecting regulatory concerns about market risks and the need for stricter controls [2] - This move aims to standardize market operations and prevent the accumulation of high leverage risks, contributing to long-term financial market stability [2] Group 3 - Various regions are seizing the "golden period" for major project construction, with new policy financial tools being rapidly implemented to support project capital [3] - The announcement of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to boost infrastructure investment growth in the fourth quarter, positively impacting related industries [3] Group 4 - Three gold and jewelry companies in Shenzhen were penalized for illegal activities, including operating a gambling business, highlighting the need for increased legal awareness and risk prevention among investors [4] - The crackdown on illegal activities in the gold and jewelry market aims to enhance market transparency and credibility, promoting healthier industry development in the long run [4] Group 5 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 11th day, affecting approximately 600,000 employees who are either on unpaid leave or working without pay [5] - The shutdown has begun to result in layoffs, with over 4,000 employees from various departments facing termination [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented effectively [1] - An estimated investment of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption of 13 to 14 trillion yuan is needed in the fourth quarter [1] - New policy tools are expected to stimulate investment, with a focus on major project construction and financial support [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - A new round of consumer support policies is anticipated, including an additional 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumption upgrades [2] - The "old for new" subsidy program has seen 330 million participants, driving sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Policies may also support sectors like health, tourism, and digital services, with potential issuance of consumption vouchers [2] Group 3: Retail and Consumption Growth - Factors such as childcare subsidies and a recovering stock market are expected to support retail sales growth, with total retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [3] - The contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to surpass 50% [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Policies - Significant foreign trade policies are set to be released in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-level opening up [6] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is on track for its official operation by December 2025, with plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will introduce new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [7] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - Local governments are expected to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available [5] - New policies to encourage private investment in emerging sectors are anticipated [5] - Financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to support project capital [4]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic performance, with an estimated investment requirement of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption between 13 trillion to 14 trillion yuan [1] - A package of macro policies is being implemented to stabilize investment, consumption, and foreign trade, with a focus on enhancing existing policy execution [1] - New policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan are expected to support project capital, particularly for ongoing or upcoming projects [3] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - The government is expected to further enhance support for large-scale consumption, including expanding subsidies for vehicle trade-ins and simplifying application processes [2] - Policies may also promote consumption in health, medical, cultural tourism, and digital sectors, potentially including the issuance of consumption vouchers [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with consumption contributing over 50% to GDP [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Project Development - Local governments are mobilizing for major project construction, with significant investments announced, such as 332.38 billion yuan for 587 projects in Anhui [3] - There is an emphasis on using special local government bonds to ensure that issued funds translate into tangible project outcomes [4] - Policies to encourage private investment in new productive forces and emerging service industries are anticipated [4][5] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Market Access - China is expected to make substantial progress in high-level opening-up, with the Hainan Free Trade Port set to officially operate by December 2025 [6] - The 138th China Import and Export Fair will take place from October 15 to November 4, with new measures to support foreign trade enterprises [6] - The 2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment includes expanding the scope of encouraged foreign investment, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern services [6]

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is traditionally a high-frequency window for fiscal policy to intensify, especially under weak domestic demand conditions, where the pressure to meet annual economic targets becomes more pronounced [2][8][10] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters is projected to exceed the annual target, suggesting that the pressure to implement large-scale counter-cyclical policies in the fourth quarter is lower than in previous years [10][11] - The report indicates that even if the economic growth continues to moderate in the fourth quarter, as long as it does not deviate significantly from the central level, the growth rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [11][18] Group 2 - The establishment of 500 billion new policy financial tools at the end of the third quarter is noted as a significant measure to support project initiation in the fourth quarter, which could leverage local matching investments and potentially create a multiplier effect of around one trillion [3][11] - The report suggests that the reliance on large-scale additional stimulus is decreasing, indicating that the fiscal policy's focus may shift towards consolidating the economic fundamentals rather than introducing substantial new measures [11][18] - The report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are likely to be driven more by risk appetite and market microstructure rather than significant policy changes, with a notable recovery in market sentiment observed [4][14][18] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential for emotional recovery and risk preference resonance in the market, suggesting that the current low sentiment levels may lead to a phase of recovery, although this is subject to external shocks or internal sentiment weakening [4][14] - It is noted that the market's microstructure is currently similar to that of April, with sentiment indicators at a two-year low, reflecting a comprehensive pricing of negative factors [14][18] - The report concludes that while there is some room for fiscal policy intervention, the urgency is not as pronounced as in previous years, and the market's mid-term expectations have shifted significantly compared to earlier in the year [18]

Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]

证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2025-10-11 行业投资评级 中性 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 3981.95 | | 52 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 周最低 | 3596.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《进入四季度银行负债端压力如何》 - 2025.09.29 金融数据预测月报 （2025.09.01-2025.09.30） 9 月社融增速或持续下探，新增信贷同比多增 l 投资要点 （1）预计 9 月新增人民币贷款（信贷口径）约 17000 亿元，同 比多增约 1100 亿元：9 月不同类型企业经营情况整体改善但仍现分 化，大型企业供需两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].