Core Viewpoint - Local governments are increasingly relying on bond issuance to manage debt and finance projects, with over 60% of the funds raised used for debt repayment and nearly 40% allocated for project construction [1][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Debt Management - In the first three quarters of this year, local government bond issuance reached approximately 8.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 27% [2]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds accounted for about 4.19 trillion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 69% [4][5]. - The refinancing bonds are primarily used to repay old debts, including the principal of maturing government bonds and to replace hidden debts, thereby optimizing the debt structure and alleviating repayment pressure [4][6]. Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Approximately 63% of the total bond issuance, or about 5.39 trillion yuan, was effectively used for debt repayment [5]. - The remaining funds, around 3.15 trillion yuan, were directed towards major project construction, with about 2.5 trillion yuan specifically allocated to special project bonds [6]. - The special project bonds were primarily invested in municipal and industrial infrastructure (28%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserves (14%), and social projects such as healthcare and education (12%) [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Infrastructure investment in the tertiary sector grew by 2.0% year-on-year in the first eight months, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth rate of 0.5% [8]. - The total bond issuance for the year is nearing its limit, with 84% of the annual quota already utilized, raising concerns about potential policy adjustments in the fourth quarter to increase issuance [8]. - Experts suggest that an additional 1 trillion yuan in bonds could be issued to further alleviate the pressure of hidden debts and improve local liquidity [9].

文/国金宏观 宋雪涛 此 次新型政策性金融工具的出台更多为了长期目标，与2 0 2 2年相比，在 投向、资金来源和经济影响等方面并不相同。 9月29日，国家发改委在新闻发布会上表示："推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作，规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金"。新型政策性 金融工具最早于今年4月政治局会议提出，最终在基数较高、同比增速压力较大的四季度落地，符合此前市场预期。 早在2022年，央行曾支持国开行、农发行和进出口银行设立类似的政策性开发性金融工具，当时为了托底投资，主要投向交通水利能源等基 础设施和信息科技物流的产业升级，投放7399亿元，带动当年基建投资增速从上半年的9.3%提升至11.5%。对比2022年，这一次的政策性金 融工具有三个不同之处。 出台背景和投向不同 与2022年稳增长压力较大的背景相比，今年实现全年5%的 国内生产总值（GDP） 增长目标压力并不大，此次出台新型政策性金融工具更多 是为了支持扩大内需和科技创新的长远目标，这也符合"十五五"规划的两条主线。因此，新型政策性金融工具在支持项目方面，更加聚焦新 质生产力，重点支持数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费基础设施、绿色低碳、农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of new policy-based financial instruments aims to enhance financial services for the real economy and promote effective investment, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan allocated for project capital supplementation [1] Group 1 - The new policy-based financial instruments will focus on supporting technological innovation, promoting consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [1] - The initiative is part of efforts to ensure stable and healthy economic development [1]

Group 1 - Central enterprises are actively promoting projects and investments during the National Day holiday to stabilize the economy, with significant engineering projects continuing without interruption [1] - The world's first "dual-tower one machine" solar thermal energy storage power station has entered full system trial operation, marking a breakthrough in tower solar power generation technology [2] - The successful installation of the last wind turbine in the 200,000-kilowatt wind-storage project in Hegang, Heilongjiang, signifies the completion of the main engineering work [3] Group 2 - The G228 Binhai section's Tauer River Bridge has been completed and opened to traffic, significantly reducing travel time between the two banks [4] - The construction of the Zhongsha Gule Ethylene project is progressing rapidly, with over 4,000 workers on-site, achieving 82.5% overall progress [5] - The world's highest high-proportion co-firing high-alkali coal 660 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power unit has been put into operation, expected to generate 8 billion kilowatt-hours annually [6] Group 3 - The first batch of dam sections for the highest hyperbolic arch dam under construction in the domestic plateau has been successfully poured to the top, marking a significant milestone [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating fund disbursement for the fourth quarter, with a new policy financial tool scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital [8]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced significant policy benefits ahead of the National Day holiday, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption of old goods [1][6]. Group 1: New Policy Financial Instruments - The first batch of new policy financial instruments has been officially launched, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, all designated for supplementing project capital [2][4]. - The first project funded by these instruments is the Wuxi to Yixing intercity rail transit project, which received 3.199 billion yuan, making it the largest project approved in the province [4]. - Other cities, including Guangzhou, Puyang, Xingtai, Huzhou, and Yibin, are also actively seeking to utilize these new financial instruments to expand effective investment [4][5]. Group 2: Special Long-term Bonds for Consumption - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption of old goods, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan in central funding [6]. - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies for replacing old goods, leading to sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Retail sales of household appliances and related goods have seen significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% in various categories [6].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In September 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[13] - New orders index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[13] Group 2: Raw Materials and Pricing - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased slightly to 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points[19] - The procurement volume index rose to 51.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated raw material purchases[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index fell to 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, with notable sector differentiation[22] - The construction business activity index was at 49.3%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the critical point[26] Group 4: Economic Policy and Risks - The government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support project capital, aimed at boosting infrastructure activities[27] - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[28]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In October, 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan after the PBOC's operation [4] - The PBOC's actions indicate a continuation of liquidity support, with expectations of further 6-month reverse repo operations to match the maturing amounts [4][5] - The central bank's strategy aims to counter potential liquidity tightening due to government bond issuances and seasonal cash demand increases [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The PBOC's liquidity measures are designed to stabilize the financial environment amid significant government bond issuances and a strong stock market [5] - Analysts predict that the central bank will utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity, although the scale of net liquidity injection may decrease from previous high levels [6] - There is an expectation of a new round of monetary easing, including a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital [2] Group 1: Financial Tool Overview - The new policy financial tools amount to 500 billion yuan, which is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in investments, accounting for 24.4% of the total infrastructure investment in 2024 [2] - The implementation of these tools is anticipated to boost infrastructure investment growth by 3 to 4 percentage points annually over the next three years [2] Group 2: Impact on Local Governments - In the context of tight local government finances, these new financial tools will alleviate funding pressures by acting as capital for projects, potentially enabling debt-loan linkage [2] - Local governments have already prepared multiple rounds of eligible projects, including traditional infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and projects in technology and green sectors [3][4] Group 3: Economic Context and Rationale - The introduction of these financial tools is a response to declining investment growth due to external environment fluctuations and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, with infrastructure investment growth at 2.0%, indicating a need for measures to reverse this downward trend [4] Group 4: Future Directions and Project Requirements - The new financial tools will primarily target infrastructure projects, addressing capital shortages caused by tight local finances, and are expected to drive bank loan disbursements [4] - Projects must commence this year and demonstrate revenue, borrowing, and repayment capabilities to qualify for funding [2][4] Group 5: Government Initiatives and Preparations - The establishment of these financial tools was first mentioned in a Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the need for structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and stabilize trade [4] - Local governments have begun preparations, with various provinces holding meetings to align projects with national strategic priorities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of investment in infrastructure projects is evident, with significant new high-speed rail projects commencing and a substantial financial tool introduced to support capital funding for these initiatives [2][3][4][7]. Investment Acceleration - Two major high-speed rail projects, the new Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed rail and the new Wenzhou-Fuzhou high-speed rail, commenced construction on September 29, marking a significant increase in investment activity [2]. - A total of 587 major projects with an investment of 332.38 billion yuan are planned for the fourth batch of projects in Anhui Province, with an annual investment target of 42.69 billion yuan [2]. Financial Tools and Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, primarily targeting infrastructure projects [2][7]. - This financial tool is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in investments over the next three years, potentially increasing infrastructure investment growth by 3-4 percentage points annually [7]. Transportation Sector Performance - The transportation sector has shown stable growth, with key indicators such as freight volume and port cargo throughput maintaining a steady increase [3][5]. - From January to August, fixed asset investment in transportation reached 2.26 trillion yuan, with railways, highways, and waterways receiving significant funding [5]. High-Speed Rail Significance - The new Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed rail is a crucial part of China's "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network, enhancing connectivity in the Yangtze River Delta region [3][4]. - The new Wenzhou-Fuzhou high-speed rail will connect major economic zones and significantly reduce travel time between southeastern coastal cities, promoting regional integration [4]. Construction Material Trends - There is a notable increase in the operational rates of construction materials, with asphalt and cement showing significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a robust demand for infrastructure development [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The HC2601 contract widened its decline on Tuesday. The new policy - based financial instruments with a total scale of 50 billion yuan are being actively promoted. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly but remained at a high level with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Demand was relatively stable, and changes in inventory and apparent demand were small. Near the holiday, the spot market lacked momentum, the cost support weakened due to weak furnace materials, and tariff disturbances affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward. The operation suggestion is to maintain a bearish stance [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan; the position volume was 1,349,868 lots, a decrease of 34,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 44,607 lots, an increase of 16,036 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt in the previous trading day was 46,314 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 97 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 139.9735 million tons, an increase of 1.9313 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 392,900 tons, a decrease of 29,200 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.6138 million tons, an increase of 164,800 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.225 million tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.88%, an increase of 0.50 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.2419 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 817,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.988 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7.737 million tons, a decrease of 229,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 901,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.8154 million vehicles, an increase of 224,300 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.8566 million vehicles, an increase of 263,200 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 16.8188 million units, a decrease of 3.7777 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 9.4532 million units, an increase of 722,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 10.1318 million units, an increase of 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to avoid disorderly low - price competition and dumping below cost. On September 28, three steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring. So far, 209 steel enterprises have been announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [2].