Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong biopharmaceutical market is experiencing a significant resurgence in IPO activity, with a notable increase in both the number of companies going public and the total amount of capital raised in the first half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: IPO Activity - In the first half of 2025, 10 biopharmaceutical companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, compared to only 12 for the entire previous year [1] - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors accounted for the highest number of IPOs, with 6 companies in biopharmaceuticals and 4 in medical devices and services [1] - A total of 39 healthcare companies are currently waiting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] Group 2: Fundraising and Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector raised 15.6 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, making it the second-highest fundraising sector during this period [2] - Heng Rui Medicine raised 9.89 billion HKD, representing a significant portion of the total fundraising in the sector [2] - The IPO of Heng Rui Medicine was the largest in the Hong Kong medical sector in nearly five years, with a subscription rate of 454.85 times [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The influx of southbound capital has significantly improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with net purchases reaching nearly 730 billion HKD in 2025, the highest for the same period in history [7] - Southbound funds now account for over 40% of trading volume in the Hong Kong market, indicating their growing influence on market pricing [7][8] - The biopharmaceutical sector's valuation has rebounded to near three-year highs, with innovative biotech companies seeing an overall increase of approximately 70% [8] Group 4: Challenges and Strategic Moves - Many biopharmaceutical companies are facing urgent financing needs due to high R&D costs and ongoing losses, leading them to pursue IPOs as a necessary funding avenue [9][10] - The trend of dual listings in both A-share and H-share markets is becoming more common, as companies seek to broaden their financing channels and enhance international visibility [5] - Despite the positive trends, the overall IPO market remains fragile, with concerns about post-listing stock performance and limited financing scale [10]

7 月利率展望：震荡格局下波段为主，关注大会增量 20250703 摘要 6 月债市整体震荡，实债收益率小幅下降至 1.65%左右。央行超预期买 断式逆回购操作呵护流动性，中美关税谈判及地缘政治冲突影响市场情 绪。月末银行季末考核压力导致债市小幅震荡走弱，但整体略走牛。 央行两次买断式逆回购操作净投放超 2000 亿，一年期国债收益率下降 超 10 个基点至约 1.35%，期限利差扩大至 38 个基点左右，国债收益 率曲线呈现走陡态势。 预计 7 月 CPI 同比增速在 0 附近徘徊，猪肉价格继续下行，原油价格因 地缘冲突有所回升。核心 CPI 温和回升受五一假期影响，消费修复内生 动力有限，对 CPI 拉动作用较弱。 预计政府债将继续成为社融主要支撑力量，6 月政府债净供给超 1.6 万 亿，同比翻倍。企业工业利润 5 月快速回落至负区间，居民部门地产修 复情况不明确，票据利率偏小幅度表现不支持社融大幅提升。 5 月出口保持正增长 4.8%，受抢出口和转出口韧性支撑。若中美关税互 免期内外溢性影响不显著，东盟、印度、欧洲等主要出口国仍会形成支 撑。下半年出口增速可能转负，需关注中美关税互免期结束时美方态度 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 适当牺牲流动性挖收益 2025 年 7 月小品种策略 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 03 日 齐晟 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | | | 利差压缩行情或延续：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-07-01 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 7 月流动性或仍宽松：利率债市场周观察 | 2025-07-01 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 7月小品种主线：适当牺牲流动性选择信用小品种挖收益。考虑到在平稳跨季之后市 场乐观情绪更为一致，也有流动性宽松、固收资管产品扩张等因素支持，市场环境 整体友好无大潜在利空，我们建议 7 月可以延续牺牲流动性向久期、向品种要收益 的思路，还未到止 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in June, providing a suitable liquidity environment to support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Liquidity Tools and Net Injection - In June, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 656 billion yuan through various liquidity tools, with short-term reverse repos contributing 535.9 billion yuan [1] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June, with a total of 2.35 trillion yuan injected in the first half of 2025, all with a one-year term [2] - The PBOC's use of liquidity tools reflects a focus on supporting key sectors such as consumption, manufacturing, foreign trade, private enterprises, and real estate [1] Group 2: MLF and Reverse Repo Operations - The MLF has transitioned from a supplementary liquidity tool to a primary monetary policy tool, with its role evolving over the past decade [2] - The PBOC's short-term reverse repo operations are aimed at maintaining short-end liquidity, with the DR007 rate being a critical indicator of liquidity tightening [3] - The PBOC's buyout reverse repo operations have increased, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan in June, helping to lower funding costs for financial institutions [4] Group 3: Buyout Reverse Repo Implementation - Since the introduction of buyout reverse repos in October 2024, the balance has gradually increased, alleviating pressure on MLF for medium-term liquidity [5] - The regular operation of buyout reverse repos enhances liquidity management and fills the gap between the 7-day reverse repo and the 1-year MLF [5]

研究支持： 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 王哲一 A0230123100001 2025.7.3 主要内容 证 券 研 究 报 告 债市"走楼梯" 行情的新特征 ——2025年7月债市展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 ◼ 2025年的债市呈现出"走楼梯"行情节奏，本报告重点回答几个问题：1、今年债市为什么呈现"走楼梯"行情；2、 资金利率与存单利率走势的差异在哪里？3、今年为何配置盘偏弱？4、利率下行的阻碍是什么？5、"走楼梯"行情 下，如何应对？ ◼ 2025年1月至今市场逻辑切换： ✓ 2025Q1：经济预期改善，从紧资金到紧存单，长债回调，权益和商品走强。 ✓ 2025年4月：外部环境恶化，流动性转松，债市快速走牛，权益和商品表现较弱。 ✓ 2025年5-6月：降准降息兑现，债市下行至低位后虽无大幅调整风险，但震荡市中资本利得收窄，重点在于挖掘利差。权益和商品受 地缘风险担忧降温影响，表现较好。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CPP Investments is initiating a global investment strategy adjustment, gradually closing private equity operations in Latin America, including Brazil, due to various macroeconomic challenges [1] - CPP Investments had previously viewed Latin America as a high-growth potential region, investing in infrastructure, consumer, and fintech projects, particularly in Brazil's energy and transportation sectors [1] - The tightening global liquidity and sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve have led to valuation pressures and increased uncertainty in emerging markets, prompting CPP Investments to reassess its asset portfolio [1] Group 2 - Some analysts suggest that the withdrawal of international long-term capital may create opportunities for other types of capital, particularly from Asian sovereign funds and policy financial instruments, to enter the Latin American market [2] - Chinese enterprises and policy banks have been increasing their investments in Latin America, establishing a robust investment network in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and telecommunications [2] - The collaboration between Chinese capital and Latin American countries is based on long-term strategic alignment, project integration, and innovative local currency settlement paths, which may provide resilience against economic cycles [2]

对于7月流动性，长江固收分析认为有望延续偏宽松表现。一方面，7月作为季初月份非传统信贷大月，且同业存单到期规模较6月 明显下行；另一方面，在贸易摩擦带来外部不确定性背景下，央行资金投放预计将保持呵护状态。不过，随着资金利率下行，银 行间债市杠杆率走高至108%以上水平，资金面进一步宽松空间有限。 央行货币政策委员会召开2025年第二季度例会，明确下阶段将加大货币政策调控强度，提高调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性。保持 流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，强化央行政策利率引导，推动社会综合融资成本下降，防范资金空转，稳定 人民币汇率。 在政策工具方面，新型政策性金融工具呼之欲出。多地密集召开政策宣讲会或对接会，相关实施方案已征求意见，资金额度或为 5000亿元，投向领域涵盖数字经济、人工智能、水利工程等多领域。 6月24日，央行开展3000亿元MLF操作，本月有1820亿元MLF到期，MLF净投放达到1180亿元，为连续第4个月加量续作。叠加买 断式逆回购操作，6月中期流动性净投放总额达3180亿元。专家表示，下半年央行或持续超额续做到期MLF，并结合买断式逆回购 操作，合理补充中期流动性。 【环球网财经综 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 杠杆&ETF资金分化，快手A股搜索热度持续飙升 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年7月3日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端小幅收缩，公募权益新发近两周整体回暖，杠杆资金净流入显著提升，ETF资金情绪低点； 2）资金需求端股权融资近两周暴增5435亿元，南向资金仍持续放量。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，金融 &TMT上行，周期多数降温：券商热度分位（下同）上升34pct至39%；保险+17pct至34%；计算机+16pct至 67%；通信+7p ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange management authority indicates a net inflow of foreign capital into domestic stocks and a positive trend in foreign investment in Chinese assets, reflecting resilience in China's foreign trade and overall economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflows - In April, foreign capital investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]. - Non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, experienced a net inflow of $17.3 billion in cross-border funds in April [1]. - Foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $10.9 billion in April, maintaining a high level of interest in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Foreign Trade and Economic Indicators - China's foreign trade showed resilience, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in goods trade, sustaining a high scale [1]. - The foreign exchange market demonstrated stability, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12.8% and 13.9% month-on-month, respectively [2]. - The settlement rate for foreign exchange rose to 64.4%, up 6.9 percentage points, while the purchase rate increased to 65.4%, up 1.0 percentage point [2]. Group 3: Policy and Market Confidence - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and supporting the economy are expected to bolster market confidence and stabilize the foreign exchange market [2]. - The central government's measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are designed to enhance support for the real economy [2]. - Progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. is anticipated to contribute to a healthier and more stable bilateral trade relationship [2].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on June 5, breaking the previous practice of announcing such operations at the end of the month, which has attracted significant market attention [1][2] - The operation will be conducted with a fixed amount and interest rate, using a multi-price bidding method, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The total scale of reverse repos maturing in June is 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan if only the June 6 operation is considered [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's early announcement and the use of structural tools are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing the transmission of policy signals, especially in the context of high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2][3] - The central bank's actions are intended to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and control fluctuations in the money market, thereby supporting credit growth to the real economy [3] - The PBOC has also established a new section on its website to disclose the operation details of various monetary policy tools, enhancing transparency and communication with the market [4] Group 3 - In May, the PBOC's net liquidity injection through various tools included a 1 trillion yuan reduction in reserve requirements and a net injection of 375 billion yuan through medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [4] - The overall long-term liquidity supply exceeded 1 trillion yuan in May, alleviating liquidity pressure from the concentrated issuance of government bonds [4] - The pressure for government bond issuance in June is expected to be lower than in May, with MLF likely to continue net injections [5]