Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery of the RMB against the USD is attributed to domestic economic stabilization and supportive policies, alongside a decline in the USD index, which alleviates depreciation pressure on the RMB [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Recovery - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD have both recovered above the 6.7 mark, with the onshore rate closing at 6.6737 on May 25, following a low of 6.7898 on May 13 [1][2]. - The RMB's recovery is supported by the gradual easing of local COVID-19 restrictions and the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, which have boosted market confidence [2][4]. Group 2: USD Index Dynamics - The USD index peaked at over 105 on May 13 but has since declined to around 102, influenced by concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators, such as the New York Fed manufacturing PMI and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, have shown significant declines, indicating downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stability - Market participants are generally rational regarding recent RMB fluctuations, with no signs of panic in the foreign exchange market, reflecting a normal state of market volatility [3][4]. - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the long term, primarily driven by domestic fundamentals, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by external factors [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term predictions suggest a wide range of fluctuations for the RMB, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and potential interest rate hikes [6]. - The recent measures by the foreign exchange bureau aim to enhance the management of foreign exchange risks for enterprises, promoting a risk-neutral approach to currency management [7].

4月底以来，A股市场持续回暖，市场成交额不断回升、北向资金加速流入等多个积极信号显现。 展望后市，机构普遍持较为积极的态度。短期来看，市场对基本面改善预期不断强化。中长期角度，基 本面与企业盈利将实现企稳回升。 市场成交活跃度提升 6月29日，A股市场震荡走低，此前表现活跃的新能源、有色金属、半导体等板块回调。截至当日 收盘，上证指数收报3361.52点，收跌1.4%，深证成指收报12696.50点，收跌2.2%，创业板指收报 2768.61点，收跌2.53%。 自4月底以来，A股市场整体呈现反弹格局。Wind数据显示，截至6月29日收盘，自4月27日底部位 置以来，上证指数、深证成指和创业板指分别上涨16.46%、24.39%和28.74%，与此同时，上证50、沪 深300和科创50指数也出现明显反弹，区间涨幅分别达到了12.24%、16.84%和25.64%。 从行业来看，以新能源为代表的行业企业在本轮反弹中表现突出。据统计，4月27日以来，申万一 级行业指数中，电力设备涨超50%，汽车涨超46%，有色金属、国防军工和机械设备行业涨超30%，基 础化工、电子行业涨超25%。 市场回暖的同时，6月以来A股市 ...

会议强调，发展改革系统要不折不扣贯彻落实党中央、国务院对下半年经济工作的全面部署，坚决 落实疫情要防住、经济要稳住、发展要安全的要求，坚持稳字当头、稳中求进，高效统筹做好疫情防控 和经济社会发展重点工作，推动稳增长各项政策效应加快释放，充分发挥投资关键作用，更好发挥推进 有效投资重要项目协调机制作用，切实加大力度做好项目前期工作，加快政策性开发性金融工具资金投 放并尽快形成实物工作量。促进重点领域消费加快恢复，大力提升能源供应保障能力，持续强化粮食安 全保障，保持产业链供应链安全稳定，坚定不移深化改革扩大开放，扎实推进区域协调发展和新型城镇 化建设，稳步推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型，做好重要民生商品保供稳价，保持经济社会大局稳定， 保持经济运行在合理区间，努力争取全年经济发展达到较好水平。 会议表示，加快政策性开发性金融工具资金投放并尽快形成实物工作量。 会议指出，今年以来，面对更趋复杂严峻的内外部环境和陡然增加的超预期因素冲击，各地区各部 门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发 展，统筹发展和安全，持续做好"六稳""六保"工作，落实落细稳经济各项政策措施， ...

Core Viewpoint - The trust industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth for the first half of 2022, with some companies showing strong performance in their trust business. The focus for the second half remains on transformation and innovation to achieve high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of now, most trust companies have disclosed their unaudited financial reports for the first half of 2022, showing overall performance under pressure. The total operating income for 56 trust companies reached 57.544 billion yuan, with trust business income at 37.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.86%. Proprietary business income was 20.187 billion yuan, down 15.21% year-on-year [2][3]. - Notably, Ping An Trust achieved operating income of 11.679 billion yuan, surpassing the 10 billion yuan mark, while Jianxin Trust saw a steady increase with revenue of 6.288 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year. Other companies like CITIC Trust, Chongqing Trust, Wukuang Trust, Everbright Trust, and Zhongrong Trust also reported revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan [2][3]. - Many trust companies experienced a slowdown in net profit growth, with some reporting negative growth. Jiangsu International Trust was one of the few to achieve net growth in both operating income and net profit, with figures of 1.124 billion yuan and 1.328 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 134 million yuan and 128 million yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Business Income Analysis - In terms of trust business income, CITIC Trust, Everbright Trust, and Wukuang Trust each reported over 2 billion yuan, but still saw declines compared to the previous year. Jianxin Trust, Yingda Trust, Foreign Trade Trust, and Guotou Taikang Trust achieved positive year-on-year growth, with Jianxin Trust's income at 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.38% year-on-year, and Guotou Taikang Trust showing a remarkable growth of 52.89% [3][4]. - Analysts attribute the narrowing of trust business income to regulatory pressures and a reduction in financing and management trust business scales. Additionally, fluctuations in the capital market have led to impairments in fair value changes, resulting in lackluster performance in proprietary business income [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus on Transformation - Many trust companies are emphasizing "innovation and transformation" in their mid-year meetings, with a focus on standard product trusts and family trusts as key strategic areas for development. Shanghai Trust highlighted the need to align with asset management and wealth management directions [4][5]. - The issuance of standard product trust products saw a significant increase, with 1,031 products issued in July, up 13.07% month-on-month, and a total issuance scale of 73.653 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.39% month-on-month growth. This segment is becoming a major support for the trust market's growth [4][5]. - Family trust business is also gaining traction, with a reported existing scale of approximately 349.481 billion yuan by the end of 2021, and over 10 billion yuan added in June alone, marking a month-on-month growth of over 60% [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trust industry is expected to see performance improvements as various "stabilizing growth" policies are implemented and the economy recovers. Trust companies are encouraged to leverage their resource advantages and explore business transformations in line with the latest regulatory classifications [6][7]. - The asset management and wealth management sectors are anticipated to become focal points for future development, although the industry currently lacks a differentiated competitive landscape, necessitating improvements in technology, research capabilities, and talent quality [7][8].

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent recovery in equity market pricing is driven by multiple factors, including stable growth policies, lower deposit rates, and increased investment in non-US assets [1][2][3] - Since the implementation of stable growth policies on September 24, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index have increased by 32.2% and 44.6%, respectively, by August 8, 2025 [1] - The stable growth policies have improved the breadth of economic growth, contributing to increased stability in the stock market, as evidenced by the rising proportion of industries experiencing growth [1][2] - A reduction in deposit rates has led to increased liquidity in the residential sector, with the willingness to invest in stocks rising from 13.3% in Q3 2024 to 17.5% in Q1 2025 [2] - Policies promoting long-term capital inflows into the market have resulted in additional funding, with various financial institutions encouraged to adopt long-term assessments [2][3] - The rise in US credit risk premiums has increased the importance of non-US assets, as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios [3] Group 2 - Since August, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have become a key trading theme in developed markets, with the Nasdaq leading global performance [4][5] - The VIX index has decreased to around 15%, indicating reduced volatility expectations in the US stock market [5] - A-shares have shown a "thick width + reduced volume" market pattern, suggesting that while risk appetite remains high, there is a growing need for fundamental support [8][9] - The overall market breadth has improved, with 79% of stocks in the Wind All A Index surpassing their 240-day moving average [9] - The performance of various sectors has varied, with military, non-ferrous metals, and precious metals showing strong gains, while TMT and dividend sectors performed moderately [10] Group 3 - The US fiscal deficit has expanded significantly, with a reported increase of $109 billion year-on-year, although this figure is adjusted for timing discrepancies [11][12] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has gained traction, with calls for rate cuts becoming more prominent among board members [14][15] - Recent policies aimed at supporting new industrialization and optimizing housing purchase policies in Beijing reflect a broader trend of government intervention to stimulate economic growth [31][32][33]

5月31日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，5月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月上 升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为 50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月份制造业PMI指数回升主要有两方面因素驱动。一是包括 降息降准在内的一揽子金融政策措施对经济稳定增长形成支撑，二是关税战降温，下半月我国对美国出 口出现比较强劲的反弹。 "5月份，我国制造业经历了上月短暂波动后呈现回稳迹象，但后期走势仍需观察。"文韬具体分析 道，一方面，外部环境依然复杂严峻，外贸回稳仍有不确定性；另一方面，从PMI表现来看，制造业 PMI仍处于50%以下水平，多数分项指标及部分行业仍处于低位。当前政策层面，仍需加码推进各项稳 经济政策措施，加快构建双循环新发展格局和全国统一大市场。 非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张 5月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业总体 延续扩张态势。对此，中国物流信息中心分析师武威表示，非制造业商务活动指数今年以来连续5个月 ...

海关总署8月7日发布数据显示，按美元计价，7月份，我国进出口总值5453.2亿美元，其中，出口3217.8 亿美元，同比增长7.2%，环比下降1%；进口2235.4亿美元，同比增长4.1%，环比增长6.2%。 | | 2025年7月全国进出口总值表(美元值/单位:亿美元) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 7月 | 同比增速/% | | 进出口总值 | 5453. 2 | 5.9 | | 出口总值 | 3217.8 | 7.2 | | 进口总值 | 2235.4 | 4.1 | | 贸易顺差 | 982. 4 | | 数据来源：海关总署 "7月出口同比增速继续加快，好于市场普遍预期。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，这主要源于当 月美国关税政策多变，各类"抢出口""转出口"效应进一步升级等原因。当月我国对欧盟、韩国及共 建"一带一路"国家出口增速加快，对东盟出口继续保持两位数高增，这抵消了我国对美出口同比降幅扩 大的影响，带动整体出口增速处于较高水平。 出口具备强大优势和韧性 展望下一阶段外贸形势，刘涛分析称，我国出口自身具备强大优势和韧性，包括外贸出口中美国市场占 比持续降低，我国具备 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the Chinese government is implementing a proactive fiscal policy by issuing a record-high special bond quota of 3.9 trillion yuan for 2024, which, combined with 100 billion yuan carried over from 2023, totals 4 trillion yuan for local governments [1][2] - The issuance of special bonds is characterized by a scientific grasp of the issuance rhythm, with a focus on supporting major projects and driving investment, particularly in transportation infrastructure [2][3] - The government’s budget expenditure for the first ten months of 2024 reached 70,107 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 47.9% in October, indicating a strong correlation with the accelerated deployment of special bond funds [3] Group 2 - The special bonds are directed towards over 30,000 projects, demonstrating their role in promoting local economic and social stability [2] - The government aims to expand the usage scope of special bonds and improve management mechanisms to maintain investment intensity and reduce financing costs, thereby promoting high-quality development [3]

（原标题：中信证券：期待后续稳增长政策的继续发力） 证券时报网讯，中信证券认为，2月社融和信贷增速不及预期，没有延续1月的信用恢复态势。2月社融 增速为10.2%，增速较上月滑落0.3个百分点，主要是因为表内贷款较弱。企业中长期贷款同比少增5948 亿，可能部分需求被1月透支，中长贷在企业贷款中的占比进一步降低至41%。居民贷款继续受到地产 销售拖累。本周票据贴现利率降至2%以下，可能表明3月上旬银行完成信贷指标有一定压力，我们期待 后续稳增长政策的继续发力。 ...