各位老铁，这里是帮主郑重的收评时间。今天这市场啊，就像端午节包粽子——外面看着热闹，里头藏着门道。沪指涨了0.43%，深成指和创业板指也跟着 回暖，但仔细看，近3400只个股上涨的背后，资金明显在玩"抓大放小"的游戏。咱们今天就拆解拆解，这反弹里到底藏着啥玄机。 先说指数反弹的"底气"从哪来 今天市场能反弹，跟政策预期升温脱不了干系。最近市场对稳增长政策的期待越来越强，加上外资回流的迹象，让不少观望资金试探性进场。不过成交量只 放量了4个亿，说明大家还是有点犹豫，就像煮粽子时火候不够，米粒还没完全开花。这时候得盯紧北向资金的动向，它们要是持续加仓，反弹才有持续 性。 创新药板块爆发：政策松绑+研发提速的双击 创新药今天集体嗨了，舒泰神、海南海药这些票涨停，可不是偶然。去年开始，创新药审批流程大幅缩短，加上老龄化带来的刚性需求，这个板块就像压紧 的弹簧。我跟药企研发总监聊过，现在一款创新药从立项到上市周期比三年前快了30%，这就好比做菜从慢炖变成高压锅，效率上去了，利润空间自然就打 开了。不过要提醒老铁们，别光看涨停就追高，得看企业真正的研发管线厚度，有些票可能只是蹭概念。 银行股稳如泰山：高股息成避风港 沪农 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

上证指数日K线图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 汪友若 6月A股或延续震荡偏强走势 对于6月市场整体表现，多数机构认同，当前政策对于资本市场的重视程度较高，或对A股形成较强支 撑。 光大证券表示，当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以来的均值附近，随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带 来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 华金证券认为，当前政策基调仍然较积极，且基本面有望持续修复，6月A股可能延续震荡偏强趋势。 该机构分析称，首先，端午假期和"6·18"消费旺季可能使得6月消费维持高增速；其次，海外补库存可 能使得6月出口增速回升；最后，稳增长政策加速落地可能使得6月制造业、基建投资维持高增速。 中国银河证券称，短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内一系列稳增长政策支持下，市场调整空间 有限。长期来看，A股市场走势仍将体现"以我为主"的内涵。随着中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"作 用，政策大力推动中长期资金入市，A股市场平稳运行将具备更为坚实的基础。 在申万宏源证券看来，现阶段是A股市场对宏观因素变化不敏感的窗口期，各项资本市场政策构建了A 股对宏观扰动的"隔离墙"。发展资本市场是当前政策 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while the steel industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall profits, the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. This includes stabilization in the real estate sector, steady infrastructure investment, and continued development in manufacturing [4][43] - The report highlights that the average iron water cost has decreased, and the profit margins for rebar steel have shown slight improvement, indicating potential for recovery in the industry [4][57] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.73% this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products also showing slight declines [3][11] - Iron ore prices increased by 0.30%, while steel consumption rose by 1.02% week-on-week [3][35] 2. Supply Data - As of May 30, the average daily iron water output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 thousand tons week-on-week, but an increase of 5.11 thousand tons year-on-year [3][26] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 90.7% and 59.0%, respectively, both showing slight declines [3][26] 3. Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.138 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.23 thousand tons [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 102 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.71% [3][35] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 9.325 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [3][43] - Factory inventory also saw a decline, totaling 4.331 million tons, a decrease of 1.12% week-on-week [3][43] 5. Price and Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,386.7 yuan/ton, down 1.90% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6,630.7 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [3][49] - The profit for rebar steel from blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% week-on-week, while electric furnace profits were negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][57] 6. Raw Material Prices - The price of Australian iron ore at the port was 737 yuan/ton, down 2.25% week-on-week [4][71] - The price of coking coal was 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][71] 7. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios for companies like Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and others [4][72]

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased volatility in the international trade environment, China's industrial enterprises above a designated size reported a profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a continued recovery trend [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with April alone showing a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.4% [2]. - The revenue profit margin for these enterprises rose by 0.17 percentage points to 4.87%, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - A series of stable growth policies have been implemented to support industrial enterprises, particularly in response to external pressures [1][2]. - The State Council's meeting on April 18 emphasized measures to stabilize employment and foreign trade, as well as to promote consumption and domestic demand [1]. - Policies such as increased export tax rebates and financial support for foreign trade enterprises have created a favorable environment for trade development [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the way [3]. - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 11.2%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises remains low, indicating a need for continued monitoring of profit trends [4]. - Expectations suggest that adjustments in tariffs between China and the U.S. may lead to reduced export costs and improved external demand, further supporting profit growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]