Core Viewpoints - The current market environment shows similarities to the end of 2014, with a potential for policy changes aimed at stimulating domestic demand and addressing "involution" [5][4]. Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first increase after four months of decline; core CPI increased by 0.7%, the highest in 14 months. PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The shift in CPI is attributed to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline from 1.0% to 0.5% [2]. Equity Market Insights - A-shares are driven by capital rather than traditional macro factors, with significant inflows expected from insurance and public funds, particularly into the technology sector [4]. - Hong Kong stocks are viewed as having high cost-effectiveness and potential for growth, supported by expected inflows from Southbound capital and a favorable earnings outlook [6][7]. Industry Research - The "involution" policy is driving sectors like steel and new energy, while AI is enhancing the performance of technology leaders, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks and sectors with significant growth potential [9][10]. - The introduction of Grok-4 is expected to significantly enhance AI reasoning capabilities, leading to new investment opportunities in the computing industry [10]. Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is anticipated to experience a slowdown in the downward trend of interest rates, with a focus on the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable [18]. - The current high valuation of convertible bonds limits their upward potential, with a recommendation to focus on lower-priced strategies [19]. Asset Allocation Strategies - A "dividend base + small-cap growth" strategy is recommended, focusing on high dividend and cash flow assets to mitigate external risks while also investing in high-volatility new stocks [22].

Group 1: Trade Policies - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on 23 countries, ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs include a 50% tax on all copper imports to the U.S. [2] - The trade negotiations have progressed slowly, with only agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while talks with the EU, Japan, and others remain challenging [3] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a new mechanism for long-term assessments of state-owned insurance companies, focusing on key indicators like net asset return and capital preservation [4] - The assessment method has been adjusted to include longer-term metrics, which is expected to encourage a focus on long-term returns and reduce short-term volatility impacts [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing the previous month's decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, indicating strengthening domestic demand [5] Group 4: Employment Policies - The State Council has issued a notice with 19 measures to stabilize employment, including increased support for small and medium enterprises and enhanced training programs [7] - The measures aim to address structural employment issues and provide financial incentives for companies hiring unemployed youth [7] Group 5: Pension Adjustments - The basic pension for retirees will be increased by 2% starting January 1, 2025, with a focus on supporting lower-income retirees [8] - This adjustment reflects the government's commitment to improving living standards amid economic uncertainties [8] Group 6: Stock Market Developments - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, driven by strong performance in the banking sector [9] - The rise in stock indices is attributed to expectations of policy easing and significant movements in financial stocks [9] Group 7: Real Estate Market - Real estate stocks have surged following government emphasis on localized policy implementation to enhance market stability [10][11] - The government is focusing on new urbanization and housing supply for migrant populations, indicating potential growth in the real estate sector [11] Group 8: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's market capitalization has exceeded $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [12] - The surge in Nvidia's stock price is linked to optimistic expectations regarding its leadership in the AI sector and increasing demand for AI chips [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class decline [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's asset bubble burst in the early 1990s, all leading to significant middle-class hardships [1][2][3]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and impacts the middle class the hardest [2][3]. - The reliance on debt for growth creates vulnerabilities, as asset prices fall while middle-class incomes stagnate or decline, leading to a shrinking middle class [3][4]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - In low-growth environments, wealth disparity increases, with only savvy investors able to find stable, income-generating assets [4][5]. - Japanese high-yield stocks during the "lost 30 years" provided significant returns, demonstrating that even in adverse conditions, there are investment opportunities that can outperform the market [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Middle Class - The middle class should prepare for potential wealth erosion by focusing on saving and investing in stable, income-generating assets rather than engaging in reckless spending or high-risk investments [5]. - Upcoming discussions will provide insights on how to effectively save and invest in assets that can yield stable returns and ensure financial security [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, suggests that interest rates should be lowered in the context of low inflation and rising incomes [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation rates, which may provide an opportunity for monetary policy adjustments [1] - Rising incomes among consumers indicate a strengthening economic backdrop, supporting the case for lower interest rates [1] - The recommendation for lowering interest rates aims to stimulate further economic growth and investment [1]

Economic Performance - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, a significant drop of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] - Government fund income in May fell by 7.8% year-on-year, a decline of 15.5 percentage points from the previous month[5] Fiscal Policy and Market Impact - The decline in fiscal growth in May is expected to negatively impact total demand, with potential economic downtrends due to reduced exports and fiscal spending[6] - Government fund expenditure growth in May was 9.1%, down 35.2 percentage points from April, indicating a significant reduction in fiscal strength[6] - The low inflation environment is likely to persist in the short term, adversely affecting corporate profits, household income, and consumption[11] Asset Allocation Insights - The bond market is expected to see yields decline further in a low inflation environment, while dividend stocks continue to outperform[10] - The current liquidity in the financial market is relatively abundant, driven by strong bank credit lending intentions[11] - The performance of different asset classes reflects market pricing in a low inflation environment, with a focus on policy responses to inflation[10] Geopolitical and Policy Considerations - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain significant risk factors for the economic outlook[3] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained the federal funds target rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties[15]

西姆库斯：由于低通胀，欧洲央行利率可能需要进一步下调 金十数据6月12日讯，欧洲央行管委西姆库斯周四表示，欧洲央行今年可能需要下调利率，因通胀低于 预期的风险增加。但西姆库斯在新闻发布会上表示，现在做出承诺还为时过早，欧洲央行需要更多数 据。欧洲央行预计明年通胀率将远低于其目标，然后在2027年反弹至2%。 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[7] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are likely to be short-lived due to uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a potential decline in production after the current export surge[2] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, as indicated by the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[7] - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing downward pressure on prices[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure construction remains strong[7] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related activities, but still lags behind historical averages since 2013[7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in quantity and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive regulations[2] - There is a need for measures to stimulate demand to avoid a rapid decline in production once the current export surge subsides[2]