交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（11.17~11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡调整，沪铜主力合约下跌1.43%，收报于85600元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作 用。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需 交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155025吨，上周小幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增1196吨至 110603吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 1、PMI 2、供 ...

有机硅行业专家会议 20251123 摘要 有机硅行业通过减产应对需求疲软，11 月会议决定减产 30%，旨在提 升 DMC 价格至 13,500-14,000 元/吨，但实际执行效果受前期减产失 败影响，需关注监督机制的有效性。 成本端支撑有机硅价格，工业硅枯水期电价上涨增加成本，下游客户对 13,200 元/吨的高位报价持观望态度，询单成交量未达预期，上游厂商 需观察下游接受度。 本次会议企业参与度高，和盛董事长亲自牵头是关键因素，多晶硅收储 消息也产生积极影响，但前期企业常规检修后复产，可能影响减产计划 的实际执行。 传统需求如房地产下滑影响建筑密封胶需求，但新能源汽车、电池密封 胶等新兴领域带来增长点，有机硅皮革作为替代品具有市场潜力。 鲁西化工战略重点是产业链下游延伸和发展高端产品，恒业成和云南能 投也在拓展下游产品线，表明行业向高附加值方向发展。 国内有机硅需求可能下降，企业将开拓海外市场，欧盟碳关税促使蓝星、 陶氏等外资企业逐步清退海外产能，以国内产能为主。 预计 2026 年第一季度，有机硅行业将通过控制库存（45 天以内）来维 持供需平衡，DMC 报盘价约为 13,200 元/吨，利润区间在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but increased production, expectations of mine复产, and exchange announcements limit the upside potential. Volatility has significantly increased, and the short - term will continue in a long - short game pattern [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but production increases, mine复产 expectations, and exchange announcements suppress the upside space, with increased volatility and a short - term long - short game pattern [12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand total increasing from 25.4 million tons LCE in 2018 to 142.3 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) has fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 50% in 2021. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply total rising from 30.9 million tons LCE in 2018 to 165.0 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) was highest at 45% in 2024. The global effective lithium supply has generally been in a state of surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons LCE in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025E, the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been in a state of imbalance. In November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate was estimated to be 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons. The import volume has been relatively large, and the export volume has been small. The production of lithium carbonate has also been increasing [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In October, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 115,895 tons, and the total demand was 124,642 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 8,747 tons. In November, the estimated total supply was 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons [10]. - The weekly output was 22,130 tons (a week - on - week increase of 585 tons), and the expectation of the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Ningde mine has increased, leading to a marginal increase in supply pressure [12]. 3.3.2 Inventory - SMM data shows that the monthly inventory in October was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week's SMM weekly inventory was 118,420 physical tons, including 26,104 physical tons of smelter inventory, 44,436 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 47,880 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][75]. - The weekly inventory was 118,420 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,052 tons), with 14 consecutive weeks of de - stocking and a cumulative reduction of 26,000 tons. The inventory days have dropped below 30 days, and the supply - demand structure remains tight [12]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.40%, the futures price was 91,020 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,280 yuan/ton [10][83].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡雅文 北京报道 11月21日，碳酸锂期货价格跳水，主力合约2601从超过10万元/吨跌至9万元/吨出头。对于碳酸锂来 说，10万元/吨仍是一大关卡。 相比暴涨暴跌的期货市场，现货市场相对稳定，碳酸锂仍保持涨势，但第三方平台披露的最新成交价有 所下降。11月21日，SMM电池级碳酸锂指数上涨401元至9.28万元/吨，上海钢联电池级碳酸锂早盘均价 下跌5700元至9.36万元/吨。有业内人士告诉《华夏时报》记者，"公司散单成交也是和下游客户当面沟 通，基本不通过贸易商，实际成交价主要看客户选择报给哪个平台。" "价格会调节供需平衡。从2026年的供需平衡表看，全年小幅过剩，但由于储能装机的非线性增长，或 许会出现月度供需错配的可能性。"上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师李攀告诉《华夏时报》记者，"若 是10万元/吨以上的价格持续3—6个月，澳洲那边才会考虑（新一轮资本开支）。" 多空分歧凸显 今年6月末至今，碳酸锂价格整体上行，从6万元/吨左右涨至9万元/吨出头，整体上涨约50%。回过头 看，8月中旬也曾短暂突破8万元/吨，旋即又在9月中下旬跌至7万元/吨出头。 尤其 ...

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry developments, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics [3][4][10] Group 1: Market Outlook - Asian oil and gas producers will face challenges from oil price fluctuations primarily influenced by supply-demand factors, with WTI crude oil prices expected to remain below $60 per barrel for most of 2026 [3][10] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.2, above its 10-year average of 1.1, indicating that investors have not fully accounted for the risks of declining oil prices [3][7] Group 2: Performance Analysis - From January 1 to October 31, the Asian oil and gas index has underperformed the broader market due to weakened demand expectations stemming from U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ production increases [4][5] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index rose by 13.86% during the same period, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased by 25.83%, highlighting a widening performance gap since August [5] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December as part of a gradual exit from voluntary production cuts implemented in 2023, which may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [10] - The uncertainty surrounding Russian supply could exacerbate supply disruptions and potentially lead to spikes in oil prices in 2026 [4][5]

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 70% from their low point earlier this year, and a forecast of a "tight balance" in supply and demand for the next year [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures have shown an upward trend, reaching a peak of 102,500 RMB/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market is currently 99,250 RMB/ton, which is a 65% increase from the year's low of 59,900 RMB/ton [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are a key driver of the price increase, with domestic lithium carbonate social inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons [3]. - The average monthly production of lithium carbonate from the Ningde Times Yichun mine, which was previously around 7,000-8,000 tons, has been affected by production disruptions, raising concerns about short-term supply [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that while demand remains positive and inventory continues to decline, an increase in elastic supply is expected if prices rise, leading to a likely price range of 80,000-100,000 RMB/ton (approximately 10,000-12,500 USD/ton) [3][4]. - The market is expected to remain in a price range until mid-2026, when domestic supply constraints and strong demand are projected to tighten the market, with an average price forecast of 8,900 USD/ton for lithium carbonate in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future price trends, noting that while the current price surge is driven by inventory depletion and storage demand, the pace of lithium mine restarts in Jiangxi should be monitored [5][6]. - Concerns have been raised about a potential seasonal decline in demand for energy storage cells, with production exceeding demand for two consecutive months [6].

锌合金是以锌为基础，并加入铝、铜、镁、镉、铅、钛等元素组成的合金。常 温下呈蓝白色，有光泽，质地硬脆。锌合金的熔点约为 380 摄氏度，浇筑温度 在 440~460 摄氏度之间。其优点包括熔点低、流动性好、易于焊接和塑形加 工，在大气中耐腐蚀，废料便于回收和重炉。然而，其蠕变强度低，易发生自 然时效引起尺寸变化。 2 号锌合金具有较高的强度和硬度，主要用于高强度操 作的工业配件及重力铸造。3 号锌合金满足一般物理和机械性能要求，是应用 最广泛的一种，占市场消费量超过 80%，适用于玩具、灯具、装饰品等对机械 强度要求不高的铸件。4 号锌合金主要应用于浴室配件、厨具和成衣拉链。5 号锌合金加入了约 1%的铜，提高了硬度和强度，但延展性较低，适用于汽车 配件、机电配件等对机械强度有一定要求的铸件。8 号锌合金普遍应用于高压 聚氯化铝市场方面，受成本、供应与需求多重因素影响，2025 年价格 整体呈现高位回落并区间整理趋势。短期内电厂停产消息带来看涨情绪， 但长期来看，供需失衡问题未解决，市场仍面临挑战。 2025 年硫酸铝市场下游需求平淡，以刚需为主，对传统行业支撑有限。 年底价格预计保持稳中微涨态势，上涨幅度约 ...