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目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 沪铜周报（12.29~12.31） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜强势拉涨，沪铜主力合约上涨5.95%，收报于98720元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价，全 球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用。国内方面，消费 淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面， 铜库存LME库存160400吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周，增15898吨至111703吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3677.1万 吨，环比增加212.6万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量3059.6万吨， 环比增加244.8万吨。澳洲发运量2113.7万吨，环比增加163.1 万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1867.6万吨，环比增加173.0万 吨。巴西发运量945.9万吨，环比增加81.8万吨。评：综合来 看，1月钢厂复产和冬储补库预期将带来需求边际增量，供应端 海外矿山年末发运冲量后1月有季节性回落预期，供应压力有望 得到缓解，基本面环比改善预期对矿价形成有效支撑，中长期 基于矿山产能释放周期背景维持偏空判断。 【短评-沥青】重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156-3500元/ 吨；山东，2870-3190元/吨；华南，2900-2950元/吨；华东， 3000-3120元/吨；上周沥青开工率环比回升3.7个百分点至 31.3%，较去年同期高了5.4个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万 吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减 幅为12.1%。评：南美局势进一步升级。在此背景下， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 策略摘要 玻璃方面，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显不足。库存压力依旧不 减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库情况产生。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。纯碱方面，产量虽有回升，但库存持续下降，产销情况良好。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投 产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，关注 下月节前备货情况，持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 核心观点 市场分析 玻璃方面，12月玻璃期货主力合约2605呈现震荡下跌走势，截止12月31日，收于1087元/吨，全月下跌 83元/吨，跌幅7.64%。现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月国内浮法玻璃均价为 1090元/吨，环比下 跌3.45%，价格重心下移，以低价刚需采购为主。 供给方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月浮法玻璃产量479.53万吨，环比上涨0.73%，浮法玻璃产能利用 率77.33%，环比下降2%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨品种：无 需求方面，12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tungsten is a strategic resource for China, with significant global production and reserves, but the industry faces challenges due to low concentration and regulatory controls [4][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In 2023, China's tungsten concentrate production accounted for 80.77% of global output, with reserves at 52.27%, both ranking first in the world [4]. - The industry concentration is low, with a CR4 of 43.94% and a CR6 of 55.87%, indicating a need for consolidation [4]. - Future tungsten supply is expected to tighten due to three main factors: ongoing regulatory controls, a decrease in over-extraction, and declining ore grades over time [5]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The domestic demand for tungsten in 2024 is projected to be split among hard alloys (58.51%), tungsten materials (22.61%), tungsten special steel (15.05%), and tungsten chemicals (3.83%) [6]. - The demand for tungsten in the military sector is anticipated to grow due to increased defense spending amid ongoing global conflicts [6]. - The photovoltaic sector is also a growth area, with tungsten wire usage expected to increase despite its smaller volume [6]. Group 3: Price and Market Impact - Short-term price increases in tungsten may lead to some substitution, but the overall demand impact is expected to be minimal [7]. - The supply-demand balance for tungsten is projected to remain tight, with supply deficits expected in the coming years: -3.78% in 2025, -4.61% in 2026, and -1.46% in 2027 for China [8]. - Global supply-demand gaps are also forecasted, indicating a sustained high price environment due to rising mining costs and environmental pressures [8].

消息面 截至2025年12月29日，江苏苯乙烯港口库存量13.88万吨，较上周期减0.05万吨。 紫金天风期货： 上周苯乙烯市场在意外检修和出口消息刺激下上涨，苯乙烯估值不高下边际利好因素影响力增强，主要不利因素在于上游纯苯过剩，建议关注装 置和出口变化情况。 瑞达期货（002961）： 受近期装置突发检修影响，短期国内苯乙烯供需紧平衡预计持续，显性库存或维持去化趋势。成本方面，短期美委、俄乌地缘局势暂无恶化迹 象，国际原油现实端供应压力仍存，油价预计上行空间有限；纯苯端供需宽松、支撑有限。短期EB2602预计震荡走势，日度区间预计在6710- 6920附近。 现货方面，本周苯乙烯市场价格继续上涨，价格运行区间为6680-6900元/吨，截止12月31日江苏苯乙烯收6880元/吨，较上周四6555元/吨的均价上 涨4.96%。 上周宝来35万吨装置重启，天津渤化45万吨装置故障停车，前期重启装置影响扩大，苯乙烯产量、产能利用率环比上升。 机构观点 ...

库存：截止12月25日：内地累库1.28，港口累14.05万吨 【观点】因地缘扰动，甲醇盘面大幅走强，全天成交尚可。港口方面，上周浮仓顺利卸船，卸货较多， 叠加倒流大部分区域关闭，港口大幅累库，伊朗地区因限气大量产能停车，开工率已降低，远月进口缩 量预期显著增强。12月港口仍面临累库压力，但预计次年一季度供需平衡表有望转向去库。内地来看， 当前内蒙古地区转单价格环比走低，主要受高产量与厂库累积影响。供应端，煤炭价格下跌使企业利润 修复，产量预计维持。需求端暂无亮点，价格以窄幅震荡为主。后续关注港口实际到港减少后，库存去 化情况。 【现货方面】现货成交：2170-2190，现货成交：05-30到-33 【供需库存数据】 供应：截止12月25日，全国开工77.99%（+0.36%），非一体化开工70.71%（+0.49%） 需求：MTO开工率85.66%（-0.34%），宝丰、诚志降负 【策略】再次关注MTO05缩（等驱动，海外发运减缓） 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达 ...

茅台市场化探索，看好大众品出行需求 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底，迈向 供需平衡。大众品板块看好出行以及礼盒相关的软饮料、休闲食品、餐饮、乳制品 需求。 投资要点： 食品饮料《白酒探底，乳制品国产替代有望加 速》2025.12.28 食品饮料 ...

今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602先扬后抑，开盘价报327910元/吨，盘中最高报331950元/吨， 最低报319330元/吨，结算价报326370元/吨，收盘报322920元/吨，下跌1460元，跌幅0.45%；沪锡主力 月2602合约成交量297836手，持仓量37828手，较前一日减少5841手。 今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获悉，12月31日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报324400元/吨-327400 元/吨，均价报325900元/吨,较前一日价格上涨4300元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报325000元/吨-327000 元/吨，均价326000元/吨，较上一交易日价格上涨4250元/吨。 短期（节前）：预计锡价将延续震荡调整态势，下行压力主要来自库存累积与年末资金离场，但下方空 间受成本及长期逻辑限制。 中长期：待季节性淡季结束、库存出现明确去化拐点后，市场焦点将重回供应弹性不足与新兴需求增长 的逻辑，价格有望回归基本面驱动的偏强格局。当前阶段，投资者宜保持谨慎，轻仓观望，重点关注节 后库存去化速度与下游订单恢复情况。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.c ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]