Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with red dates futures experiencing a downward trend and weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for red dates opened at 9675.00 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 9755.00 CNY and a low of 9560.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.37% [1]. - The overall market sentiment for red dates is pessimistic, with the main contract showing a downward trend and testing support levels [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply of red dates is sufficient, with markets in Hebei and Guangdong reporting stable arrivals and a preference for older stock over new [1]. - The overall production for the year is expected to remain around 550,000 ± 50,000 tons, indicating a clear oversupply situation [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with increased short positions and a decline in the long-short ratio [2]. - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is anticipated to boost end-consumer demand for red dates, although the market remains cautious [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of futures prices rising and then falling, with spot prices slightly increasing. There are positive factors in the macro - level, but the industry faces challenges such as high production and insufficient demand. The resolution of high - production issues requires time to accumulate contradictions [4] - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. They are affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply - demand balance, and cost [4] - For coking coal and coke, the spot procurement sentiment has slowed down, and the futures are challenging the "anti - involution" trading high. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future [4] - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating, and it is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities. There may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices rose and then fell on Tuesday, with spot prices slightly increasing and trading volume shrinking. The macro - level has positive factors, and the industry is in a seasonal destocking phase. However, demand lacks explosive power, and it will take time to resolve high - production problems. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between hot rolled coils and rebar when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for arbitrage. Also, perform rolling stop - profit for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Due to weak downstream demand, the black sector is under pressure. Although they rebounded under factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a warm macro - environment, the rebound space is narrowing. The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere is average, and a northwest coking enterprise has initiated the third price increase, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not responded. The procurement sentiment has slowed down. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating, and the prices of coking coal and coke on the disk are weakening. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot when the coke disk is at a premium [4] Iron Ore - There are many trade disputes, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of negotiation results on commodities. The supply side has no major problems, but there may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [4]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins, including polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), are in a downward - trending phase. Their price centers are expected to decline in the later period. The reason is that they are in a capacity - release cycle, with new devices coming into operation and high existing production loads. Meanwhile, Q4 may see an increase in imports, leading to large supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and cannot digest the high production volume. As a result, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move down [3]. - In Q3, the polyolefin market had no major contradictions, but the supply - demand pattern was under pressure. New devices were put into production, and demand in the peak season was lower than expected, causing the price center to gradually decline. In Q4, the supply pressure will increase due to expected import growth, the cost - side crude oil outlook is pessimistic, and the oversupply pattern will continue to intensify, further pressuring prices [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Spread Trends**: In July, after a brief rebound, polyolefin prices started to decline. In August and September, prices, especially for PP, weakened. The basis of PP was under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread was at a low level. The basis of PE was stronger than that of PP and has been strengthening since August, but the absolute value was still low. The 1 - 5 spread of PE also weakened against the season [11][18]. - **Spread Analysis**: Before late August, the L - P spread was upward, but then turned downward as the demand for L also failed to meet expectations. The L - V01 and PP - V01 spreads fell in July and then recovered and stabilized in August. Methanol was statically weak, and MTO profits improved [33][34]. 3.2 Supply Review - **Domestic Capacity Release**: In 2025, multiple PP and PE production devices are planned to be put into production. In Q3, PP added 1.3 million tons of production capacity, and there are still 750,000 tons to be put into operation by the end of the year. PE added 900,000 tons of production capacity in Q3, and there are still 1.7 million tons to be put into operation, with slightly greater pressure than PP [39][40]. - **Production - Side Profits**: In Q3, the cost - side oil price center moved down. The profit of the oil - based production end was at the same level as the previous year. LPG supply pressure increased, and PDH profits were poor. With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, coal prices rebounded, CTO profits shrank but remained high, and inland MTO profits deteriorated [65]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: From January to August, the supply of PP and PE remained high. In Q3, PP devices operated stably with few maintenance cases, but parking increased in mid - to - late September due to weak demand. PE had more maintenance, especially in September, but the overall supply was still in surplus [72][78]. - **Imports and Exports**: From January to August, PP imports decreased by 9.76% year - on - year, exports increased by 29.01% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 91.68% year - on - year. PE imports decreased by 0.84% year - on - year, exports decreased by 25.91% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 2.66% year - on - year [89][90]. 3.3 Demand Review - **PP Demand**: In Q3, PP demand entered the seasonal peak season but did not meet expectations. Although industries such as agriculture, construction, packaging, and PP pipes showed some improvement in demand, the overall demand was still weaker than expected, increasing the downward pressure on PP prices [115]. - **PE Demand**: PE has a more obvious demand peak - season attribute, but similar to PP, the demand support was not strong. With the approach of the peak season for greenhouse film demand, production has recovered, but it was worse than the same period last year. The packaging film market has slightly improved, but the overall demand has not fully met expectations [133]. 3.4 Inventory Review - **PP Inventory**: Upstream production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and inventory mainly accumulated in the middle - link. Production enterprise inventory, port inventory, and trader inventory data showed the inventory transfer and accumulation situation [134][137]. - **PE Inventory**: PE inventory remained stable, and inventory accumulated in the middle - link during the off - season. With the increase in demand for greenhouse film and packaging film in August, social inventory decreased slightly [151].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the cost line, with support around 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, due to supply - side复产, increased imports, and lack of short - term domestic demand growth, although potential risks at the Guinea mine end may provide a price safety cushion [16][147][151]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation provides macro - level support, and the strengthening of the peak - season fundamentals, along with inventory de - stocking, will drive up the price. Existing long positions can be held [16][147][151]. - Casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The rise in aluminum prices drives up alloy prices, and the increase in raw material costs and the improvement in demand from the automotive market support the price, despite high inventory levels [18][148][152]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important Information**: In August, the US CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Aluminum will be classified as both "critical minerals" and "growth minerals" in the UK's upcoming strategy. Qinghai Baihe Aluminum plans a 500,000 - ton capacity upgrade project [8][9]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,077.47 yuan/ton, down 68.84 yuan/ton from September 5. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. China's electrolytic aluminum production in August 2025 was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in August was 53.3%, up 9.2% from July [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton. The smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory was 625,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, down 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 72,469 tons, up 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina fluctuated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards [16]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to fall this week, and the spot premium narrowed to about 150 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. In August 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased month - on - month and year - on - year [34]. - **Imports and Exports**: On September 11, the FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 338 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 5. The alumina import window opened, increasing domestic supply pressure [35]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the alumina port inventory was 55,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In July, China's alumina export volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of September 12, coal prices in major regions fluctuated. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in September slightly decreased to about 0.382 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable this week [50][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [56]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%, the highest in the same period in the past four years [58]. - **Spot**: As of September 12, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [61]. - **Price Trend and Premium**: This week, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, the spot price in the spot market rose, and the spot was at a discount. LME aluminum fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot was at a premium [67]. - **Demand**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. In August, the aluminum processing industry PMI reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [68]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [71][76]. - **Imports and Exports**: The aluminum ingot import profit window closed. In August 2025, China exported 534,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to August was 3.996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [80][83]. - **End - Use Markets**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles is relatively bright. From September 1 - 7, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% [92]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloys. The price of scrap aluminum has been rising, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has changed [100][105]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by raw material prices. The spot price of ADC12 has changed, and the overseas price and import profit also show certain trends. The production volume of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloys have their own characteristics [111][114][122]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand end for casting aluminum alloys. The demand for casting aluminum alloys has seasonal characteristics, and the new order index has increased since August [126][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloys includes social inventory and factory - level inventory, and the current inventory level is relatively high [137].

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On June 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 60,000 yuan/ton and closed at 59,880 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 181,046 lots, and the open interest was 306,885 lots, a decrease of 450 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 604,974 lots, a decrease of 7,855 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of the contracts decreased by 12,486 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.43. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,967 lots, a decrease of 1,746 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 18, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,900 - 61,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,350 - 59,350 yuan/ton, both remaining stable from the previous day. The lithium carbonate market still shows a pattern of oversupply, with the supply side having relatively sufficient available quantities and the demand side being relatively weak. Downstream material enterprises have low procurement willingness and mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [1]. 2. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 133,500 tons, including 57,700 tons in smelters, 40,700 tons in downstream enterprises, and 35,200 tons in other inventories [2]. 3. Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals are weak, but there are still many positions in the near - month contracts, and many warehouse receipts have been cancelled, resulting in certain market games. Attention should be paid to the risks caused by position reduction and delivery games. If there is a significant rebound, short - selling hedging can be considered at an appropriate time. - For single - side trading, sell on rallies for hedging; for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, no strategies are proposed [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Israel-Iran conflict continues, but it is likely to cool down. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, wait for the cooling event to find mid - term short - selling opportunities [2][3] - The short - term trading in the market is based on the geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, while the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil has temporarily retreated [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term trading is based on geopolitical premium under the Israel - Iran conflict, and the mid - term supply - demand surplus logic has temporarily retreated [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. There are signs of a peak on the daily K - line, and the hourly K - line has not reversed. The short - term support is at 490. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [4] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply of pure benzene at the cost end is sufficient, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The mid - term supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil prices in the short term [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reduced positions and declined today but has not reversed. The hourly - level support is at 7315. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai cup rubber is 27% lower than the same period last year, and the supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is gradually being realized. The demand is extremely weak both at home and abroad. The mid - term bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [10] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The 14000 level is still a valid short - term pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [10] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still in a weak pattern of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. The price of raw material butadiene will be under pressure after the large - scale commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. The demand is as weak as that of rubber. The mid - term fundamentals are bearish, but it is easily disturbed by large fluctuations in crude oil in the short term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It reduced positions and declined today, with some fluctuations near the short - term pressure of 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11640 [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: Some PX plants will resume production in June, and the demand side (PTA) will also restart the overhauled plants. The current PX inventory is low, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. It is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 6510 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The previously overhauled PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the polyester start - up has declined, and the de - stocking amplitude has narrowed. The fundamentals have weakened, but it is more affected by crude oil fluctuations in the short term [20] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term support is at 4610 or wait for the crude oil to break the signal. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [20] (7) PP - **Logic**: The start - up of PP plants has increased, the supply is under pressure, and the order demand at the terminal demand end is weak in the traditional off - season. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but it is affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil from the cost end recently [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support below is at 7060. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The Iranian methanol plants have stopped production, increasing supply - side disturbances. The domestic plants have high profits, and the domestic start - up remains at a historical high. The inventory has entered the accumulation stage [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 2365. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [25] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The overhaul volume is gradually decreasing, and the PVC start - up is expected to gradually increase. The terminal demand is still insufficient in the real - estate downward cycle, and the export expectation has weakened significantly. The bearish fundamentals remain unchanged [28] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today and has not reversed in the short term. The short - term pressure is still at 4880. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [28] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The overhauled plants at the supply end will gradually resume, and the polyester start - up at the demand end has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 4310. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is pressure from the commissioning of large plants in the mid - term, and the supply is expected to increase significantly. The mid - term view is bearish, but it is easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [32] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term support is at 7220. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]

Group 1 - International oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude futures reaching $77.62 per barrel and Brent crude futures hitting $78.50 per barrel on June 13 [1] - Domestic crude oil futures closed at 532.5 yuan per barrel, marking a 7.9% increase, the largest single-day rise since October 8, 2024 [1] - The recovery in oil prices is supported by macroeconomic positive news, geopolitical drivers, and expectations of a strong seasonal demand in the oil market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has entered its consumption peak season, driven by increased demand for gasoline and diesel due to automotive travel, with crude oil inventories declining faster than expected [1] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July and August, indicating ongoing supply surplus pressure in the medium term [2] - The market anticipates a slowdown in demand growth in the second half of the year, leading to potential inventory accumulation and risks of downward price adjustments in the fourth quarter [2]