Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release October economic data on November 14, with expectations of a slowdown in multiple macro indicators due to a higher base in 2024 and increased external uncertainties [2] - The latest "Chief Economist Confidence Index" from the First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance and a projected annual growth target of 5% for the year [2] Industrial Growth - Economists predict a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.7% for October, down from 6.5% in the previous month [3] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3][4] - High-frequency data shows a decline in production indices, with steel production maintaining a high operating rate of 84.38% in October, reflecting a strong demand in the "golden September and silver October" season [4] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [5] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost consumption in related sectors, contributing to a high base effect for October [5] Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [6] - New energy vehicle production and sales also saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year for the first ten months of the year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery due to new policy financial tools [7][8] - The construction PMI for the civil engineering sector has shown slight improvement, indicating potential stabilization in infrastructure investment [7] Policy Measures - The government has intensified growth stabilization policies, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools fully allocated to support key investment projects [10] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to boost consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10][11]

Economic Overview - The external environment remains complex and variable, with a focus on domestic demand recovery for the economy [1] - The Chief Economist Confidence Index from First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1] Industrial Growth - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in October is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [2] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - High-frequency data shows a strong production trend in the steel sector, with the average blast furnace operating rate at 84.38%, up 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [4] - The automotive industry sees record production and sales figures, with October production reaching 3.359 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of potential recovery due to new policy financial tools [6][7] - Real estate investment continues to face challenges, with significant declines in property transactions in major cities [6][7] Policy and Economic Goals - The government aims to achieve the annual economic growth target despite external challenges, with a focus on effective policy implementation [8] - Recent policies include the issuance of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support key investment projects [9] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to stimulate consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall stability with major indices mostly rising, while structural differentiation continued to manifest, with growth sectors performing flat and value styles standing out [1] - The power equipment industry continued to lead, while cyclical industries such as steel, chemicals, building materials, environmental protection, and public utilities saw consecutive gains over two weeks [1] - Sectors like computers, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and non-bank financials experienced significant declines, with computers, pharmaceuticals, non-banking, and automobiles shifting from gains to losses week-on-week [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic demand is recovering, with price expectations gradually stabilizing; October exports showed a year-on-year decline of 1.1% and a month-on-month decline of 7.0%, influenced by high base effects and seasonal factors [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [2] Group 3: Global Market Sentiment - Global stock markets faced pullbacks due to heightened risk aversion stemming from concerns over AI bubbles, government shutdowns, and uncertainties from court rulings, leading to significant declines in U.S. stocks and fluctuations in bond yields [3] - Expectations for a potential end to the government shutdown in November and improvements in economic data and dollar liquidity are anticipated [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - New emerging technologies are seen as a key investment theme, with traditional asset returns expected to decline; the "New National Nine Articles" reform is expected to enhance market investability and attract long-term capital [4] - Economic structural transformation is accelerating, with new technologies and industries emerging, suggesting a potential recovery in economic expectations and asset returns [4] - Upcoming events such as the World Internet Conference and G20 Summit are highlighted as important for market outlook [4] Group 5: Investment Focus - Investment focus includes emerging technologies, with attention on sectors like internet, robotics, semiconductors, media, computers, and communications [5] - Global expansion of Chinese enterprises is seen as a pathway to market opportunities and shareholder returns, with sectors like power equipment, consumer electronics, machinery, and innovative pharmaceuticals being of interest [5] - Cyclical consumption is viewed as transitioning, with potential opportunities in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and building materials, particularly in service and instant consumption sectors [5]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry Core Views - In October 2025, the PPI decline continued to narrow, and the CPI turned from decline to increase. The PPI decline narrowing reflects the gradual improvement of the price environment in the industrial sector, and the CPI increase shows a mild warming trend in consumer prices. It is expected that the PPI will continue a mild recovery, and the CPI in the fourth quarter will continue the marginal improvement trend [5][6] Summary by Directory Macro Events - On November 9, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October 2025, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] 10 - Month Inflation Warming PPI: Decline Improvement - The PPI decline continued to narrow. In October 2025, the national industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The price of the mid - stream manufacturing industry continued to improve, some foreign - demand industries recovered, the international input impact continued, the new - quality productivity industry maintained growth, and the price of the consumption - upgrade category continued to rise [12] CPI: Food Drag Reduction - The CPI continued to rise month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. In October, the national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The year - on - year decline of food prices narrowed, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The non - food price increase was stable with a slight increase, and the service consumption price continued the recovery trend [32] Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for October 2025 CPI and PPI Data Overview - In October 2025, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% [47][50] Interpretation by Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results. The CPI increased by 0.2% both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [54]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance on October 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index rising over 3.5% [2] Core Insights - The market rally was driven by improved policy expectations and a more favorable external environment, particularly following the release of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session communiqué, which emphasized high-quality development and technological self-reliance as core goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The upcoming China-U.S. trade negotiations and positive signals from the Ministry of Commerce regarding potential resolutions to mutual concerns have alleviated fears of escalating trade tensions, leading to a quick recovery in risk appetite [2] Policy Implications - The Fourth Plenary Session reiterated the 2035 goals, including achieving a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country and significantly enhancing technological self-reliance, highlighting the importance of economic and technological policies [2] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes domestic demand recovery and deepening reforms, with potential for continued consumer stimulus policies and monetary easing, which could stabilize the market fundamentals [2] Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment may fluctuate between policy expectations and changes in the external environment, while the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide clear policy guidance for key areas such as technological innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and consumer spending [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of policies related to technological self-reliance, the effectiveness of domestic demand recovery measures, and developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations [3]

Core Insights - Economic resilience is evident, but pressures remain, necessitating further expansion of domestic demand policies to effectively stimulate real demand in manufacturing and services while improving the efficiency of fund transmission to the real economy [1] CPI Insights - The CPI for September showed a year-on-year decline of -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% in August, with core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating sustained recovery in internal demand [2] PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by -2.3% year-on-year in September, a reduction in the decline from -2.9% in the previous month, with expectations of a potential positive turnaround in the first half of next year [3] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in September from 49.4% in August, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity, although the index remains in contraction territory for six consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [4][5] Fixed Asset Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment fell by -7.1% year-on-year in September, with significant declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments, reflecting persistent weakness in investment activity [6] Credit Insights - New RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan in September, a rise of 700 billion yuan from the previous month, maintaining a steady credit scale despite a year-on-year decrease [7] M2 Insights - The M2 growth rate was 8.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a slight decline in the growth rate, with the efficiency of fund transmission to the real economy still needing improvement [8][9]

Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, marking a new low in over four months; the 10-year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5-year contract dropped 0.08%, and the 2-year contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally rose, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 1.5 basis points, the 10-year government development bond "25 Government Development 10" yield up by 2 basis points, and the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield rising by 1.4 basis points [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 128.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 14, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remained stable, but the degree of easing showed slight contraction, with non-bank quotes slightly rising [2] Economic Fundamentals - As of the end of July, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year; narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [3] - In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan, with new RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and RMB deposits rising by 18.44 trillion yuan [3] - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market continues to be pressured by the equity market, with market sentiment not yet recovering [4] - Despite a generally loose liquidity environment, the bond market has not reached a downward trend phase, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.75% [4] - It is suggested to maintain a short-term wait-and-see approach, focusing on tax period liquidity and new bond issuance pricing [4]

Export Performance - In July, exports showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared to 5.9% in the previous month, while imports rose by 4.1% from 1.1%[1] - Cumulative export value from January to July increased by 6.1% year-on-year, up from 5.9%, while cumulative imports decreased by 2.7%, an improvement from a decline of 3.8%[1] - The trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[1] Price and Quantity Indices - The export price index reached 100.5, up from 98.7, marking a recovery since May 2023, while the export quantity index was 106.7, down from 107.7[1] - The import price index slightly increased to 99.3 from 99.2, with the import quantity index rising to 103.0 from 98.7[1] Product Structure - Cumulative export value of electromechanical products rose by 8.1%, accounting for 60.0% of total exports, while high-tech products increased by 6.0%, making up 24.2%[2] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 20.5%, and automotive exports (including chassis) grew by 9.7%, while household appliances and mobile phones saw declines of -0.4% and -10.5%, respectively[2] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 12.6%, while exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 13.5% and 7.0%, respectively[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. was 11.8%, while ASEAN accounted for 17.7% and the EU for 14.9% of total exports[3] Investment Insights - The report highlights the resilience of Chinese exports supported by diversification in destinations and product structure upgrades[4] - Risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and insufficient global demand recovery[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].