Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股 major indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded for three consecutive days, and over 3900 stocks rose. Non - bank finance and national defense and military industry sectors strengthened, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. - Overseas, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East eased geopolitical conflicts. There are differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, and the dollar - RMB exchange rate has weakened recently. - Domestically, economic fundamentals in May showed a decline in imports, exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value year - on - year. The real estate market is accelerating its decline, and only social retail sales increased. CPI and PPI data indicate future price pressures. Financial data shows that the M1 - M2 gap narrowed in May, social financing stock growth remained flat, and new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, suggesting insufficient real - economy financing demand. - The central bank and five other departments issued a document to promote consumer spending through financial means, with expanding domestic demand as the policy focus. - Overall, the domestic economic fundamentals are under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand recovery may support economic growth, the Fed may cut interest rates early, the RMB exchange - rate pressure is relieved, and the eased Middle East situation boosts market risk appetite. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is at 3922.8 (+74.2), IH (2509) at 2722.6 (+42.6), IC (2509) at 5759.8 (+133.6), IM (2509) at 6119.6 (+131.0). Their corresponding secondary - main contracts also showed increases [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1210.4 (+21.8), IC - IF spread is 1899.2 (+45.0), etc. Some spreads increased while the IM - IC spread decreased by 3.0 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: Most quarter - to - month spreads showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Holders**: IF's net position is - 29,653.00 (- 415.0), IH's is - 12,784.00 (- 907.0), IC's is - 13,685.00 (+854.0), and IM's is - 34,131.00 (+1113.0) [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of their corresponding futures contracts also increased [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 16,395.06 billion yuan (+1914.47 billion), margin trading balance was 18,220.06 billion yuan (+51.05 billion), and north - bound trading volume was 1605.61 billion yuan (+228.25 billion) [2]. - **Fund Flows and Policies**: Main - force funds increased by 22.96 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 3000 billion yuan, and reverse - repurchase operations increased by 3653.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 72.29% (- 15.91%), Shibor was 1.371% (+0.001%), and option prices and implied volatilities mostly increased [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share strength index was 7.30 (- 0.90), the technical - aspect index was 7.20 (- 1.60), and the capital - aspect index was 7.40 (- 0.10) [2]. Industry News - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and the Fed Chair Powell indicated a wait - and - see attitude on interest - rate adjustments but did not rule out early rate cuts [2]. - The central bank and five other departments issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, setting up a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan and promoting long - term capital entry into the capital market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure, and it is anticipated that demand will recover in the future [2][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.893 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.3% to 176 million CNY [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 456 million CNY, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 46.9% to 5 million CNY [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.893 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.353 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 176 million CNY in 2024 to 445 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 26.5% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 CNY in 2024 to 0.33 CNY in 2027 [4][9]. Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the company generated revenue from various products: white card paper (1.154 billion CNY), cultural paper (474 million CNY), gypsum face paper (60 million CNY), and corrugated paper (163 million CNY) [2][8]. - The company’s sales volume for white card paper, cultural paper, gypsum face paper, and corrugated paper saw year-on-year increases of 3.5%, 16.4%, 40.2%, and a decrease of 2.8%, respectively [2][8]. - The overseas market showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 83.8% year-on-year to 296 million CNY in 2024, while domestic revenue decreased by 7.8% to 1.555 billion CNY [2][8]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 9.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.9% for 2024 [2][8]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 9.6%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7 percentage points [2][8]. Investment Outlook - The company is recognized as a leader in the white card paper industry, with a stable operation and promising overseas market expansion [2][8]. - The report anticipates that if domestic demand recovers, it could further enhance profit margins [2][8].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024[5] - The increase in social financing was partly due to a low base from the previous year, where April 2024 saw a decrease of 658 million yuan in new social financing[7] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, and 976.2 billion yuan in April alone, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Credit and Loan Insights - In April 2025, new credit amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support at 834.1 billion yuan[12] - The decline in credit performance in April is attributed to several factors, including local government debt replacement leading to loan repayments and external trade tensions affecting export financing activities[12] - Resident loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan in April, indicating a need for improved leverage willingness among households[16] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0% in April, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year[21] - The short-term policy stance has been clarified in recent political meetings, indicating a gradual approach to policy adjustments, with a focus on real estate and domestic demand trends[21] - External uncertainties are rising, which may impact future economic data and financial metrics, prompting potential additional policy measures if conditions weaken[25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +1% for revenue and -3% for net profit [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates operating revenue of 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9] - The revenue breakdown includes: - White cardboard revenue of 1.1542 billion, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3987 RMB/ton [9] - Cultural paper revenue of 474.1 million, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4848 RMB/ton [9] - Boxboard revenue of 163 million, with a sales volume of 530,000 tons, and an average price of 3098 RMB/ton [9] - Gypsum face paper revenue of 59.5 million, with a sales volume of 160,000 tons, and an average price of 3654 RMB/ton [9] Future Outlook - The company expects continuous growth in production and sales, with demand recovery likely to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9] - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with export revenue accounting for 16% of total sales, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical risks [9] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gradually recovering, with structural highlights emerging, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods sectors [2][5][12] - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector [12][13] Industry Overview Liquor Sector - Liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets, focusing on healthy operations. Most companies have abandoned aggressive growth goals for 2024, instead aiming for stable operations [5][7] - The industry is entering a phase of inventory clearance, with expectations of gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Key players are advised to focus on channel health and payment quality [5][7] - Specific company insights include: - Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong market positions, while other brands are adjusting strategies to manage inventory and pricing [7][8] - The overall growth target for the liquor industry has been adjusted to a range of 5% to 10% [7] Consumer Goods Sector - Traditional leaders in dairy, beer, and yeast are showing signs of recovery, while new business models are gaining traction [9][12] - Key insights from specific companies include: - Yili is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.7% in 2025, with a focus on high-quality products [9][10] - Anqi Yeast is experiencing steady growth driven by overseas markets and cost advantages [10] - Modern Dairy anticipates double-digit growth in raw milk production, supported by improved operational efficiency [10] - The snack and beverage segments are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading liquor brands as they begin to show signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu [12][13] - In the consumer goods sector, there is an emphasis on snacks and beverages, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish, as well as a focus on the recovery of the beer and dairy sectors [12][13]

Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs on PPI is significant, while improved consumer demand provides substantial support for core CPI [4][5][47] - International oil prices have declined, and weak demand for steel and coal has led to a drop in commodity prices, negatively affecting PPI [4][10] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for certain goods, leading to a slight increase in core CPI despite the overall decline [5][48] Inflation Data Summary - On May 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released April inflation data: CPI year-on-year at -0.1%, previous value -0.1%, expected -0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -2.7%, previous value -2.5%, expected -2.8% [3][46] - April PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, slightly better than market expectations [10][30] PPI Analysis - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices, which have led to a decrease in domestic oil prices, negatively impacting sectors like oil extraction and processing [4][10] - The real estate sector's downturn and seasonal factors have contributed to reduced demand for steel and coal, further dragging down PPI [4][10] - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries, exacerbated by increased tariffs, has also constrained PPI recovery [13][47] CPI Analysis - Core CPI showed a limited decline, primarily due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand and led to price increases in certain consumer goods [5][48] - Food CPI improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -0.2%, driven by seasonal supply constraints and reduced imports [20][34] - Gold price increases have supported other goods and services prices, contributing positively to overall CPI [22][48] Service Sector Insights - The core service CPI increased by 0.44% month-on-month, slightly better than seasonal trends, driven by a rebound in travel demand [6][25][49] - Significant price increases were observed in travel-related services, such as airfare and vehicle rentals, reflecting improved consumer activity [25][49] Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on PPI is expected to be greater than on CPI, with potential downward pressure on both indices in the second quarter [7][27] - However, policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand may provide support for inflation recovery [7][27]

事件： 5 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 4 月通胀数据， CPI 同比 -0.1% 、前值 -0.1% 、预期 -0.2% 、环比 0.1% ； PPI 同比 -2.7% 、前值 -2.5% 、预期 -2.8% 、环比 -0.4%。 核心观点：关税对PPI冲击较大，但消费需求改善对核心CPI形成较大支撑。 国际油价下行，加之钢、煤等需求较弱， 4 月大宗商品价格回落对 PPI 构成较大拖累。 4 月 PPI 环比 -0.4% 。其中国际油价下行令国内油价持续回落，石油开采 (-3.1%) 、石油加工 PPI(-2.6%) 环比均为负， 测算油价拖累 PPI 环比 -0.1% 。同时，地产景气回落，煤炭供应充足且进入传统淡季，钢、煤价格也有 回落，相应黑色压延、煤炭开采 PPI 环比分别 -1% 、 -3.3% ，测算钢、煤价拖累 PPI 环比 -0.3% 。而铜 价贡献为正，测算铜价支撑 PPI 环比 0.1% 。 中下游等行业价格回落也约束 PPI 回升，既反映关税冲击的影响，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有 关。 中下游产能利润率偏低仍在对相应行业 PPI 构成拖累，尤其是美国关税加码影响下，部分出口行业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the recovery of domestic demand, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, with potential for a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the second half of the year [1] - The major consumption ETF has shown a year-to-date maximum drawdown of 5.57%, indicating some volatility, but it has also outperformed its benchmark with a one-year annualized excess return of 2.18% [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 19.84, which is considered low compared to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index account for 67.16% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key players [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index shows mixed results, with notable increases in stocks like Hai Tian Wei Ye (3.06%) and declines in others like Dong Peng Beverage (-0.89%) [5] - The report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a bottoming phase, with expectations for recovery as companies manage inventory more effectively in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of bottoming out, with signs of pressure relief expected in the second quarter of 2025, leading to potential recovery in the second half of the year [1][3] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with significant structural differentiation among companies, particularly the resilience of leading brands [1][2] - In 2024, the overall demand for liquor is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in cash flow and profit for most listed liquor companies, except for Moutai [1][2] - For Q1 2025, major liquor companies have adopted a more pragmatic approach, with revenue growth of 1.6% and profit growth of 0.3% compared to the previous year [2] Leading Brands - Moutai's revenue grew by 11.7% and profit by 13.8%, significantly outperforming the industry, while Wuliangye achieved positive growth in the thousand-yuan price segment [2] - Regional leaders like Gujing and Jinshiyuan have also shown stronger performance compared to their competitors [2][4] Capital Market - Major liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through high dividends and significant buybacks, which helps to bolster market confidence [2] Consumer Goods Sector - The dairy and beer sectors have emerged from their bottoming phase, while snacks and beverages are performing well [2][3] - The overall revenue and profit for the consumer goods sector increased by 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2] New Opportunities - New channels and product categories are driving growth in the snack and beverage sectors, with significant expansion in snack retail and innovative beverage offerings [3][4] - The food and beverage industry is expected to gradually recover, with potential for both fundamental and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].