Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to the game between the expected support from the export end and the domestic demand in the third quarter. The implementation of India's tender and the release of quotas will relieve the domestic high - supply pressure to some extent, but the domestic consumption restricts the upward elasticity. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak and volatile, and the actual export volume needs to be monitored [29]. - For methanol, the inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high output year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the import in August is still high. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal peak season and Iran's shutdown expectations. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the near - end weakens [32]. - In the polyester industry, the supply of PX is expected to increase marginally in August, but the demand from PTA and the terminal is not good, so the PX rebound is lack of drive. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved in the short - term but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve. Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand drive is limited. Bottle - chip's processing fee has support, and its absolute price follows the cost [37]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the demand for caustic soda is currently good, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rebound height is limited. PVC's supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the downstream demand has no sign of improvement [46]. - In the polyolefin industry, the supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season. The fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to stop profit for short positions and hold the LP01 contract [52]. - For crude oil, the overnight oil price declined due to the supply - side factors. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the oil price is under pressure. The oil price is likely to remain weak, and the impact of the US - Russia negotiation on Friday needs to be monitored [59]. - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, pure benzene has short - term support but limited self - drive, and its rebound is under pressure. Styrene has a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [63]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Contracts**: On August 13, the 01 contract was 1747 yuan/ton (-0.51% compared to August 12), the 05 contract was 1788 yuan/ton (-0.45%), the 09 contract was 1726 yuan/ton (-0.06%), and the methanol main contract was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [25]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: On August 13, the 01 - 05 contract spread was -41 yuan/ton (-2.50% compared to August 12), the 05 - 09 contract spread was 62 yuan/ton (-10.14%), the 09 - 01 contract spread was -21 yuan/ton (27.59%), and the UR - MA main contract spread was -649 yuan/ton (2.26%) [26]. - **Main Positions**: On August 13, the long top 20 positions were 42364 (-17.26% compared to August 12), the short top 20 positions were 49534 (-18.28%), the long - short ratio was 0.86 (1.26%), the unilateral trading volume was 90686 (-0.82%), and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt quantity was 3823 (0.00%) [27]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On August 13, the price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner was 525 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [28]. - **Spot Market Prices**: On August 13, the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (0.58%), in Shanxi was 1620 yuan/ton (-0.61%), etc. [28]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: On August 13, the Shandong - Henan spread was -10 yuan/ton (0%), the Guangdong - Henan spread was 140 yuan/ton (-7%), etc. [29]. - **Downstream Products**: On August 13, the price of melamine in Shandong was 5194 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan was 2930 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [29]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: On August 15, the domestic daily urea output was 19.21 million tons (1.05% compared to August 14), the coal - based urea daily output was 15.03 million tons (1.35%), etc. [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the MA2601 closing price was 2479 yuan/ton (-0.68% compared to August 12), the MA2509 closing price was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%), etc. [31]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% (0.64% compared to the previous value), the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (10.41%), and the methanol social inventory was 131.7% (8.06%) [31]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 73.17% (2.28% compared to the previous value), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.4% (0.00%), etc. [32]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 13, the POY150/48 price was 6745 yuan/ton (0.2% compared to August 12), the FDY150/96 price was 7095 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China PX price was 10300 yuan/ton (-0.4% compared to August 12), the PX - naphtha spread was 267 yuan/ton (1.1%), etc. [37]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the PTA East - China spot price was 4695 yuan/ton (-0.2% compared to August 12), the TA09 - TA01 spread was -34 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: On August 11, the MEG port inventory was 51.6 million tons (7.2% compared to August 4), and the MEG arrival expectation was 14.1 million tons (3.7%) [37]. - **Polyester Industry Operating Rate Changes**: The Asian PX operating rate was 73.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the PTA operating rate was 76.2% (0.9%), etc. [37]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 13, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500 yuan/ton (0.0%), the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2620 yuan/ton (0.8%), etc. [42]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the P - 13 - 4 price was 390 US dollars/ton (-2.59% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 142.5 yuan/ton (19.0%) [42]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the CFR Southeast Asia price was 680 US dollars/ton (0.0% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 30.3 yuan/ton (152.5%) [43]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate was 89.1% (1.7% compared to August 1), the PVC total operating rate was 77.8% (6.1%), etc. [44]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate was 82.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 85.0% (0.0%), etc. [45]. - **Inventory**: On August 7, the liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was 21.9 million tons (2.0% compared to July 31), the PVC total social inventory was 48.1 million tons (7.3%), etc. [46]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the L2601 closing price was 7381 yuan/ton (-0.11% compared to August 12), the L2509 closing price was 7313 yuan/ton (-0.22%), etc. [50]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: The East - China LDPE price was 9550 yuan/ton (0.00% compared to the previous value), the East - China HD film price was 7490 yuan/ton (-0.13%), etc. [51]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate was 77.8% (-2.10% compared to the previous value), the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 37.9% (-0.47%), etc. [51]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, Brent was 65.63 US dollars/barrel (-0.74% compared to August 13), WTI was 62.79 US dollars/barrel (0.22%), SC was 490.50 yuan/barrel (-0.77%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, NYM RBOB was 207.72 US dollars/gallon (0.33% compared to August 13), NYM ULSD was 224.90 US dollars/gallon (0.28%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: On August 14, the US gasoline crack spread was 24.45 US dollars/barrel (2.08% compared to August 13), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.04 US dollars/barrel (0.00%), etc. [59]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China pure benzene price was 751 US dollars/ton (-0.5% compared to August 12), the pure benzene - naphtha spread was 187 US dollars/ton (1.1%), etc. [63]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the styrene East - China spot price was 7350 yuan/ton (-0.3% compared to August 12), the EB09 - EB10 spread was -23 yuan/ton (-11.5%), etc. [63]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: On August 13, the phenol cash flow was -720 yuan/ton (-1.2% compared to August 12), the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was -1845 yuan/ton (1.7%), etc. [63]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: On August 11, the pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.60 million tons (-10.4% compared to August 4), the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.88 million tons (-6.4%), etc. [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is a continued pattern of consolidation, with potential disruptions from raw materials. Most of the individual product ratings are "oscillating," with some "oscillating weakly" and none with a strong positive or negative outlook [3][7][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical chain currently has few contradictions and continues to consolidate. After experiencing the largest weekly decline since late June, crude oil futures prices stabilized slightly on Monday. The chemical chain as a whole continued to oscillate, with coal prices rising and crude oil showing signs of short - term stabilization after seven consecutive days of decline. European natural gas futures also rose due to high - temperature weather increasing power - generation demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Crude oil prices stabilized slightly after a significant weekly decline. Global crude oil inventories increased on a weekly basis, with a significant drop in Indian on - shore inventories and a change in India's import rhythm. The chemical chain showed an overall oscillating trend, with some products experiencing inventory changes and price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Individual Product Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the focus is on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [7] - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance. The absolute price is over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [7] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical upgrades will only cause short - term price disturbances [7][8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil and is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [9] - **Methanol**: The inland market remains relatively strong, and the price is oscillating. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [22] - **Urea**: The market is mainly in a stalemate, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The short - term fundamentals cannot provide effective support [22][23] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventory accumulation is not sustainable, and the medium - term price support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate within a certain range [16][19] - **PX**: The price of oil has stopped falling slightly, and the chemical products are in the stage of bottom - consolidation. The short - term cost still provides some support, and the price decline space is limited [11] - **PTA**: The sales volume of polyester filament has increased, boosting market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate, and the focus is on the implementation of major factory maintenance at the beginning of August [12][13] - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are mediocre, and the market is in a consolidation phase. The price follows the movement of raw materials, and the bottom support is strengthening [19][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The raw materials have stabilized, supporting the bottom of the price. The price follows the cost of raw materials in the short term [20][21] - **PP**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the price is oscillating. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the demand side is in the off - peak to peak season transition [27][28] - **Propylene (PL)**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is considered reasonable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and inventory has increased. The price is oscillating, and the supply side still faces certain pressure [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Import arrivals have decreased, and downstream production has started. The buying sentiment has increased this week, and the market structure has turned to Back. The overall inventory is expected to decrease slightly in August [13][14] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The non - integrated profit has reached a neutral level [15][16] - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure comes from high supply and continuous inventory accumulation [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the price is temporarily oscillating. The 50% caustic soda price has rebounded, which has a certain boosting effect on the futures price [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.67 with no change, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread being 0.75 with a 0.01 change [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis and warehouse - receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 199 with a change of - 83, and the number of warehouse receipts is 76670 [35] - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are various inter - product spread data, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 335 with a change of - 1 [36] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Specific monitoring data for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are provided, but detailed data summaries are not presented in the text [37][49][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and there are still uncertainties in current policies, with risks of fluctuations remaining. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but increased exports may keep inventories stable. Overseas hidden inventories may become more visible [1]. - The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. Domestically, the commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the bullish sentiment is questionable. Overseas trade situations are uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventories are low, but supply may increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices [3]. - The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. - The zinc price is under pressure as the zinc ore supply is high, the TC is rising, the expected increase in zinc ingot production is high, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure is downward [7]. - The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [8][9]. - The nickel price is weak. The current main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The stainless - steel demand is weak, causing the ferro - nickel price to fall, and the nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - The lithium carbonate price has a rebound trend, but the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. If there is no macro - level bullish factor, the upward space of the lithium price is limited [12]. - The alumina futures price is still anchored by cost, and the ore price is the core contradiction. It is recommended to short at high prices [15]. - The stainless - steel market has a short - term oversupply situation, and the weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum alloy are both weak in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the aluminum price and faces resistance to rise [19]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 1.22% to $9,665/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 5,100 tons to 102,500 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25 tons to 1.9 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference slightly widened to 1,640 yuan/ton [1]. - **Outlook**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between 9,400 - 10,000 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.53% to $2,577/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 384,350 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 tons to 4.7 tons [3]. - **Market**: The three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.4 tons, and the spot in Guangdong shifted to a discount to the futures [3]. - **Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2,520 - 2,620 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Price**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,168 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.77 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 26 tons [5]. - **Market**: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.48 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is limited [5]. Zinc - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.29% to 21,985 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2,691.5/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.79 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.06 tons [7]. - **Market**: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.91 tons, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure declined [7]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is under pressure [7]. Tin - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,480 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered tin warehouse receipts decreased by 146 tons to 6,742 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 1,985 tons [8]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The procurement willingness is weak [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,650 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,015/ton, down 0.76% [10]. - **Market**: The ferro - nickel price has fallen, and the ore price has weakened. The nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel [10]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the Shanghai nickel main contract expected to operate between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index closed at 62,301 yuan, up 0.36%, and the LC2509 contract closed at 63,880 yuan, up 0.35% [12]. - **Market**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upward space of the price is limited without macro - level bullish factors [12]. - **Outlook**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to operate between 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.05% to 3,090 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 1.86 tons, unchanged [14]. - **Market**: The spot prices in most regions rose, the import window was closed, and the aluminum ore price was stable [14][15]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to operate between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 111,410 tons, down 123 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 115.68 tons, up 0.20% [17]. - **Market**: The spot market trading improved slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still dull. The supply - demand imbalance persists [17]. - **Outlook**: The weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.51% to 19,850 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased by about 0.15 tons to 2.4 tons [19]. - **Market**: The spot market trading was divided, and the price was mainly affected by the aluminum price [19]. - **Outlook**: The price faces resistance to rise [19].