Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has eased, with oil prices falling and the Fed's rate - cut expectations rising. The prices of most non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and import - export conditions, showing different trends of volatility [2][4]. - For copper, the short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For lead, the price is expected to remain weak. For zinc, the market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases. For tin, the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. For nickel, the price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore. For lithium carbonate, there is a risk of weakening in the short term. For alumina, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. For stainless steel, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [2][4][5]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The LME copper rose 0.35% to $9694/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78450 yuan/ton. The short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 3325 tons to 95875 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 tons to 2.6 tons. The social inventory decreased by more than 10000 tons over the weekend, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Import and Export**: The domestic copper spot import loss expanded to about 2500 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [2]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap price difference slightly expanded to 1020 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly increased [2]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: The LME aluminum rose 1.19% to $2592/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20445 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position increased by 19000 lots to 666000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 4.8 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15000 tons to 464000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons to 341000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: The East China spot premium over futures was 160 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.57% to 16926 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 16 to $1998/ton. The price is expected to remain weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 43800 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - **Consumption and Production**: The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries has declined significantly, and the downstream consumption remains weak. The profit of primary lead smelting has increased, and the operating rate has reached a historical high of about 70% [5]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.44% to 21774 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to $2648.5/ton. The market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 7700 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - **Supply and Market Situation**: The import of zinc ore in May was good, but the import of zinc ingots was lower than expected. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. Geopolitical factors may affect the export of Iranian zinc ore [7]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 261880 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short term [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 58 tons to 6444 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2145 tons [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the import of tin ore in June is expected to decrease by 500 - 1000 tons. The terminal is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [8]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel price was weak. The price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore [9]. - **Supply Chain**: The price of nickel ore may decline, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, the tight situation of intermediate products may improve, the price of nickel sulfate has declined, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The MMLC index fell 0.17% to 59677 yuan. There is a risk of weakening in the short term [11][12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply clearance is slow, the downstream is in the off - season, and the high inventory suppresses the price [12]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: The alumina index rose 0.49% to 2897 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5400 tons to 37500 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12390 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1157400 tons, a 1.04% increase [16]. - **Market Situation**: High - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome producers are under cost pressure, and the market is waiting and watching [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term due to a relatively neutral sentiment, tight raw - material supply, but weakening consumer resilience [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, but the upward height is limited because of improved domestic commodity atmosphere, inventory depletion, and the impact of US tariff policies [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weakly operational due to weak downstream consumption and high inventory of recycled lead products [4]. - Zinc prices may continue to decline if there is no production - control move from the industrial side, considering the surplus of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply side faces uncertainties and downstream has a strong demand for low - price procurement [7][8]. - Nickel fundamentals have slightly improved in the short term, but are bearish in the long run, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate as there is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. - The future trend of stainless steel depends on whether downstream demand can initiate substantial restocking [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.45% to $9725/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 120400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.4 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss widened, and the scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.44% to $2494/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.1 to 35.6 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 36.0 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, and the spot premium in East China remained flat [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.67% to 16877 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 4.22 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.09 million tons [4]. - **Market**: Downstream battery enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, and the production rate of primary lead smelting rose to 70% [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.36% to 21715 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2639.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.31 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.17 million tons [6]. - **Market**: Zinc ore remained in surplus, and zinc smelters' profits increased [6]. Tin - **Price**: On June 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 263420 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [7]. - **Supply**: It is expected that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500 - 1000 tons in June, and the smelting enterprises' operating rate is low [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises' orders did not increase significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices decreased as prices rose [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121360 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, and LME main contract closed at $15530/ton, down 0.42% [9]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply was tight, and some Indonesian smelters reduced production [9]. - **Market**: The price of nickel - iron rebounded, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index was 60,537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 60,760 yuan, up 0.10% [11]. - **Market**: The contract positions decreased, and the main contract was expected to switch to LC2509 [11]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.21% to 2883 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 3275 yuan/ton, with a premium of 337 yuan/ton over the 07 contract [12][13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 8.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons [13]. - **Market**: The bauxite price in Guinea decreased, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12460 yuan/ton, down 1.42%, and spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 120039 tons, a decrease of 1624, and the social inventory increased by 2.06% [15]. - **Market**: The market competition was fierce after the price - limit policy was lifted, and downstream users held a wait - and - see attitude [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by overseas trade negotiations and the precious - metal's safe - haven property. Short - term supply disruptions may drive copper prices up, but mid - term economic weakening risks need attention [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventories, but the overall commodity atmosphere and overseas trade situation may cause fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the inter - month spread may widen [3]. - For lead, the decline in scrap battery prices has led to a drop in lead prices. If scrap production cuts deepen, lead prices may fall further [4]. - Zinc has an excess supply expectation. With the increase in zinc ingot inventory, zinc prices face a certain downward risk in the medium term [6]. - Tin's supply is temporarily tight but is expected to ease. Weak demand may cause the tin price center to shift down [8]. - Nickel has high macro - uncertainty. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, the subsequent trend is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices lack a reversal driver. High supply and inventory, along with falling overseas concentrate prices, may lead to a weak operation of lithium prices [11]. - Alumina has an overcapacity situation, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short - sell lightly on rallies [14]. - Stainless steel is in a weak and oscillating pattern due to low terminal demand and cost support from raw materials [16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, the dollar index declined slightly, and copper prices oscillated. The SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, bonded - area inventory continued to decline, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 3.3 million tons [1]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in Shanghai increased to 185 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 970 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,700 US dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, domestic inventory declined, and affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices oscillated. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,170 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.8 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and warehouse receipts decreased to 5.5 million tons. Aluminum ingot and rod social inventories continued to decline [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in East China increased to 90 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,430 - 2,490 US dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.39% to 16,793 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Price**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 3.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. The refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.16% to 22,177 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory and Export**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloys reached 1,280.23 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore has an excess expectation, and zinc prices may decline in the medium term [6]. Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin - mine production is slow. From January to April, domestic tin - ore imports decreased by 47.98% year - on - year. The supply of raw materials is tight in the short term [8]. - **Demand**: Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and only rigid - demand purchases are made [8]. - **Inventory and Price**: SMM's three - place inventory increased to 10,333 tons. The trading range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is 30,000 - 35,000 US dollars/ton [8]. Nickel - **Macro and Supply - Demand**: Sino - US tariffs are temporarily eased, but the overall tax rate is still high. Refined nickel production is at a historical high, and stainless - steel market demand is weak [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Philippine laterite nickel - ore prices are stable, Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore prices are difficult to rise, and hydrometallurgical ore prices are stable after a decline [9]. - **Product Prices**: Nickel - iron prices are stable and rising, MHP prices are high in the short term, and nickel - sulfate prices are expected to strengthen. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main - contract price range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M of 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index fell 1.34%, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices declined. The LC2507 contract price fell 1.41% [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply remains high, downstream restocking expectations are not fulfilled, and domestic social inventory is at a historical high [11]. - **Outlook**: Lithium prices may operate weakly, and the trading range for the LC2507 contract is 59,400 - 60,800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina index fell 3.44% to 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 0.6 million hands [13]. - **Inventory and Price**: Spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.66 million tons. The Australian FOB price is stable, and the import profit and loss turned positive [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Short - selling lightly on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main - contract AO2509 trading range of 2,850 - 3,400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The open interest decreased by 14,171 hands [16]. - **Inventory and Price**: Social inventory increased by 0.85%, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw - material prices changed slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

有色金属日报 2025-5-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走弱，美国零售增长放缓，贵金属价格企稳，铜价下探回升，昨日伦铜微涨 0.08%至 9600 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78490 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 925 至 184650 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.6%，Cash/3M 升水 14.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various commodities. It suggests different investment strategies based on market conditions, such as being cautious with bonds, considering long positions in stock index futures, and taking long positions in gold futures [6][10][12]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 5 - year contract fell slightly. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. It is recommended to be cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising slightly, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell [8]. - **Analysis**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long positions in stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index improved [12]. - **Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and trade frictions are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to take long positions in gold futures on dips [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [14]. - **Analysis**: The real estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the current peak demand season may support prices. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [16]. - **Analysis**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke from steel mills is weakening. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [18][19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Spot prices also showed some changes [21]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are concerns about manganese ore supply disruptions. It is recommended to consider long positions in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and exit short positions for silicon iron at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. There are various data and news in the energy market [23][24]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening high and then fluctuating lower. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The possibility of relaxed US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, but tariff agreements are beneficial for demand recovery. It is recommended to take long positions in the main fuel oil contract [27][28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure persists, but demand is expected to improve due to tariff expectations, and costs are rebounding. It is expected to be short - term bullish [30][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [32]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, but demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. Spot prices increased slightly, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Analysis**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [35][37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The adjustment of export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor policy changes and price differences between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread increased [41]. - **Analysis**: The short - term upward repair of crude oil prices and positive sentiment are expected to drive PX prices to rebound. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to crude oil price changes and macro - policies [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased [42]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure and the expected improvement in costs are expected to drive PTA prices to rebound. It is recommended to operate in the low - price range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is slower than expected, and imports are reduced. It is expected that prices will have upward space. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Demand improved slightly, and costs increased [44]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals and the support from costs are expected to drive short - fiber prices to adjust bullishly. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on dips and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Costs increased, and demand improved [45]. - **Analysis**: The increase in raw material prices and the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals are expected to drive bottle - chip prices to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to cost price changes [45]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Production decreased, and inventory increased [46]. - **Analysis**: The market remains in a loose pattern, but the concentrated maintenance in May may lead to short - term adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. There are changes in production lines and market prices [47][48][49]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The tariff adjustment and the expected policy support may have an impact on market sentiment, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Production increased slightly, and inventory was at a neutral level [50]. - **Analysis**: The demand for caustic soda is limited, but the maintenance of some plants in May may provide some driving force. It is necessary to focus on plant operations and liquid chlorine prices [50][51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff negotiation result gave some confidence, but the supply - demand situation is still loose [52]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound may be due to tariff news. It is necessary to pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption - stimulating policies [52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand situation is in surplus [54][55]. - **Analysis**: The decline in ore prices weakens the cost support, and the demand slows down. It is expected to run weakly [55]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. Spot prices decreased slightly [56]. - **Analysis**: The Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day moving average suppresses prices. The Sino - US negotiation results may lead to price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. There are changes in supply and demand [58][59]. - **Analysis**: The contradiction between the current shortage and the expected supply increase is expected to lead to a bearish - fluctuating trend [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply and demand situation is complex [60]. - **Analysis**: The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity after the repair of macro - sentiment [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Spot prices of polysilicon decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The demand in the industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is in the capacity - clearing cycle, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [61][62]. Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Spot prices also changed [63]. - **Analysis**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is strong, and it is recommended to consider out - of - the - money call options [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose, but the increase was limited by inventory. Domestic palm oil imports and consumption data are available [65][66]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67]. Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. There are changes in domestic supply and demand and inventory [68]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider long positions in rapeseed meal after a pull - back [68][69]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures fluctuated, and external cotton futures fell. There are various data and news [70][71]. - **Analysis**: The end of the peak season weakens demand, but the Sino - US negotiation results may support prices. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay attention to tariff policies [70][72][73]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures fluctuated at a low level, and external sugar futures rose. There are production and inventory data from Brazil and India [75]. - **Analysis**: The global trade friction affects demand. It is expected to run in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [75][76][77]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. There are signs of production reduction, and inventory is at a low level [78][79]. - **Analysis**: The low inventory and the expected production reduction may lead to a strong spot price. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pull - back [79][80]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [81]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices rose. There are data on production, cost, and inventory [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may support prices. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [83][84]. Corn/Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [85][86][87]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of corn is still there, but the bottom support is strong. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. Import data and spot price changes are available [88]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the spot market has weak support for the futures price [88][89].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 元/吨，折人民币价格 6520 元/吨，基差收窄 86 元/吨至-4 元/吨。 | | | --- | --- | | 江浙涤丝产销局部放量，平均产销估算在 110-120%。国内一套年 | | | 产 75 万吨聚酯瓶片新装置已于上周末出料，目前负荷仍在提升 | | | 中；另一年产 75 万吨装置于 4 月初停车检修，目前也在重启出料 | | | 中。5.12 华东主港地区 MEG 港口库存约 75.1 万吨附近，环比上 | | | 期减少 3.9 万吨。PX 集中检修，供应较前期明显收紧，下游 PTA | | | 检修还在继续，但聚酯开工负荷未下降，需求持续支撑价格偏强。 | | | PTA 加工差有所修复，自身检修继续，下游聚酯端高开工高库存， | | | 需求持续存在支撑，短期内 PTA 现货价格则跟随成本端偏强震 | | | 荡，后市关注 PTA 装置变动及原油市场波动。五月上半月乙二醇 | | | 外盘到货稀少，国内装置检修与重启交替，国产货增量较为有限。 | | | 供需预期修正下，五月乙二醇去库将 ...

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...