1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The Fed's resumption of Treasury bond purchases has led to a marginal easing of liquidity expectations, and the tone of China's Central Economic Work Conference is positive. The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Aluminum - Global aluminum inventories continue to decline, and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. With overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, while the operating rate of recycled lead is rising. With the ebb of the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, it is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore inventories are decreasing, domestic zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin - Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, with low downstream inventories, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is necessary to wait for ferronickel to further decline in price before testing the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights in Yichun has no real impact on supply, but the expectation of supply - demand pattern repair cannot be falsified. Due to the large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions [21]. Alumina - After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disruptions. The demand is relatively volatile, and there is delivery pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of silver hit a new high, and copper prices rose. LME copper inventories increased by 325 to 166,925 tons. Domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 45,000 tons. The domestic spot copper import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,600 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 11,900 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants continued to increase, and aluminum prices rose. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,870 - 2,940 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.59% to 16,741 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 1 to 1,943 US dollars/ton. Domestic social inventories increased slightly [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 22,976 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 4.5 to 3,058.5 US dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories decreased [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 328,600 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and inventories have increased [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low. The spot premiums of various brands were stable, and the price of ferronickel weakened [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.45%. The LC2605 contract closed up 7.97% [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 104,800 - 112,300 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.5% to 2,619 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and overseas prices also decreased. Futures warehouse receipts decreased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,380 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Spot prices in some markets increased, and raw material prices were stable. Social inventories decreased [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the weighted contract positions decreased, and the volume shrank. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 现货贴水扩大难以阻碍铝价上涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 2850元/吨，广西 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].

Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].