Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's broad fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first 11 months of the year, highlighting a slight decline in revenue and an increase in expenditure, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand [3][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In the first 11 months, broad fiscal revenue reached 24,079 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.2% [3]. - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly better than the initial forecast of 0.1%, driven by stable economic performance and active capital markets [5]. - Government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, falling short of the initial forecast of 0.7%, primarily due to a sluggish real estate market and lower land transfer income [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Broad fiscal expenditure amounted to 34,066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.5%, which is lower than the expected growth rate of 9.3% for the year [6]. - The government allowed local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter to support local financial capacity and major project construction [6][7]. - The fiscal expenditure structure has been optimized, with increased focus on social welfare and public services, such as social security and education, which grew faster than average expenditure growth [9]. Government Debt - Net financing of government bonds reached 1.315 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, an increase of 361 billion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Experts anticipate that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 will be set around 4%, with total government debt expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [9].

2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，承载着承前启后、谋篇布局的重要使命。当前全球经济形势复杂 多变，地缘冲突频发、贸易保护主义抬头，中国经济如何在风高浪急的外部环境中突围？未来经济增长 动力何在？宏观政策将如何发力？大类资产配置又有哪些机遇？ 对此，近日，国海证券首席经济学家夏磊这样解读了2026年宏观经济展望。 外部环境：风高浪急下的不确定性与新挑战 谈及2026年中国经济面临的外部环境，夏磊指出，美国政策的不确定性成为影响全球经贸秩序的重要变 量。自2025年初特朗普政府上任以来，不断调整关税政策，方向和内容反复多变。以美国对欧盟的关税 政策为例，短短几个月内经历了多次变动，从实施20%"对等关税"，到暂停后保留10%基准关税，再到 计划加征50%关税，最终通过谈判降至15%，这种反复无常的调整给全球贸易带来巨大混乱。 更值得关注的是，美国核心内阁成员在贸易理念上存在明显分歧。贝森特作为"温和派"注重市场反馈， 格里尔作为贸易强硬派不愿在关税上让步，卢特尼克则被称为"内阁中最特朗普式的成员"，三人在贸易 谈判中甚至出现公开冲突，导致美方谈判目标混乱，进一步加剧了国际经贸环境的不确定性。 政策支持力度持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

Investment and Operations - China Shenhua plans to increase capital by 6 billion yuan to the State Energy Group Financial Co., and intends to purchase related assets held by the State Energy Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Western Energy, for a transaction price of 133.598 billion yuan [1] - Fudan Microelectronics identifies FPGA as an ideal solution in low-orbit satellite communication and other fields [1] - Qingdao Port plans a total investment of 15.7 billion yuan to construct two terminal projects in Dongjiakou Port Area [1] - Heng Rui Medicine's SHR-2906 injection clinical trial has been approved, with no similar drugs approved for market domestically or internationally [1] - Health元's subsidiary NS-041 tablets have received approval for a new indication to conduct clinical trials, with no new generation targeted KCNQ2/3 drugs available in the market [1] - Jinggong Technology plans to invest 426 million yuan to build an intelligent manufacturing base, aiming to produce 45 sets of aerospace and low-altitude manned equipment and 6,000 sets of humanoid robot carbon fiber components annually [1] Contracts and Collaborations - Zhongyuan Neipei's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ningbo Puzhi Company regarding humanoid robot-related business [2] - Dongfang Cable and its subsidiaries won bids totaling 3.125 billion yuan for deep-sea technology and other projects, accounting for 34.37% of 2024 revenue [2] - Jifeng Co., Ltd. has been designated for a passenger car seat assembly project, with a total lifecycle amount expected to be 9.8 billion yuan [2] Capital Operations - Guankang Technology is planning to acquire no less than 60% of Liao Jing Electronics' shares, with trading suspension starting from December 22 [2] - Shangfeng Cement's invested company, Yuexin Semiconductor, has received acceptance for its IPO on the ChiNext [2] - *ST Dongyi's restructuring plan has been approved by the court [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the integration of investment in physical assets and human capital to stimulate economic growth and support the new development pattern [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The central economic work conference highlights the need to stabilize investment as a key task, especially in light of external environmental changes and domestic economic challenges [1]. - Fixed asset investment growth has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% from January to November, influenced by local government debt and real estate adjustments [1]. - Long-term effective investment opportunities remain, as per capita capital stock in China is still lower than that of developed economies, indicating room for growth in infrastructure and public services [1]. Group 2: Funding Sources - The central economic work conference proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increase central budget investment, optimize local government special bond usage, and leverage new policy financial tools to enhance funding sources [2]. - Predictions suggest that upcoming policies will help alleviate local financial pressures and amplify government investment's impact [2]. - The focus on high-quality implementation of major national strategies and projects aligns with the need for improved infrastructure and human resource development [2]. Group 3: Private Investment - The article stresses the necessity of a collaborative investment approach led by the government and driven by the market, aiming to enhance private sector participation in major projects [3]. - Measures have been introduced to stimulate private investment, including expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees [3]. - The central economic work conference calls for improving regulations to boost private sector confidence and investment willingness [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Demand - The development of new industries and the need to address existing gaps will continuously generate investment demand [4]. Group 5: Investment Growth Expectations - Investment is expected to have a greater elasticity compared to consumption, and with the implementation of various policies, investment growth in the coming year looks promising [5]. - More detailed work is required to ensure sustainable investment growth and optimize supply structure [5].

近日，国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章指出，要做好"十五五"时期扩大有效投资工作，坚持扩 大内需这个战略基点，坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，着力拓展投资增长空间，着力增强政府投资 引导带动作用，着力激发民间投资活力，着力深化投资体制机制改革，保持投资合理增长，不断提高投 资效益，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，为加快构建新发展格局提供有力支撑。 明年是"十五五"开局之年，面对外部环境变化影响加深，和国内经济发展中的老问题、新挑战，中央经 济工作会议将坚持内需主导作为重点任务之一，并明确提出推动投资止跌回稳。稳投资将成为稳增长的 重要抓手。 今年下半年以来，固定资产投资增速出现回落，1~11月份同比下降2.6%。这既受地方政府化债、房地 产调整等当期因素影响，也折射出经济发展过程中新旧动能转换的阶段性特征。 不过，从长期视角来看，有效投资仍然具备广阔空间。我国人均资本存量仍低于发达经济体，水利、能 源、市政以及新型基础设施等领域仍存短板；统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，实现投资于物和投 资于人紧密结合，基础设施和公共服务投入力度还需加大；关键核心技术领域补短板、新兴产业和未来 产业快速发展，也都会产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Silan Microelectronics, announced plans to apply for a loan of up to 1.5 billion yuan from a subsidiary of the National Development Bank to support the implementation of its "12-inch high-end analog integrated circuit chip manufacturing production line project (Phase I)" [1] Group 1 - The loan will have a term of no more than 15 years and an interest rate not exceeding the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The funds from the loan will be exclusively used as capital injection into the project company, Xiamen Silan Jihua Microelectronics Co., Ltd. [1] - The loan does not require any collateral [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market and enhance the quality of goods and services supplied [1][2]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Demand - The conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a contribution rate of 71% from domestic demand to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - Experts highlight that the strategic position of expanding domestic demand has been elevated, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [2][3]. - The emphasis on "maintaining strategic initiative and enhancing economic resilience" through a strong domestic market is noted as a key objective [2]. Group 2: Boosting Consumption - The focus on "expanding the supply of quality goods and services" aligns with the goal of leading new supply with new demand [4]. - There is a recognition of the mismatch between effective demand and supply, particularly in high-quality products and services, indicating a need for structural improvements [4][5]. - The conference outlines plans to adapt to changes in consumption structure and optimize the implementation of relevant policies to enhance service consumption [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference sets a goal to "promote investment stabilization," with plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and utilize new policy financial tools [7]. - It is acknowledged that fixed asset investment growth has been declining, necessitating a strategic response to enhance investment effectiveness [7][8]. - The emphasis on optimizing the management of local government special bonds aims to improve funding efficiency and support major project construction [8].

中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点 领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的 具体路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具 协同发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银 行首席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发 展营造必要的流动性环境。另一方面，"适度"二字也强调了对政策力度、节奏和重点的精准把握，注重 在稳增长、防风险、促改革等多重目标中寻求动态平衡，避免"大水漫灌"。 如何实施好适度宽松的货币政 ...

新华社北京12月18日电 《经济参考报》12月18日刊发记者向家莹采写的文章《解码中央经济工作会议 丨货币政策延续"适度宽松" "灵活高效"降准降息可期》。文章称，中央经济工作会议明确要求，"要 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，并提出将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充 裕""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"。 一系列部署不仅为2026年货币政策的制定与实施确立了清晰的主基调，也预示了新一年政策发力的具体 路径：在维持流动性合理充裕背景下，通过适时降准降息等总量工具与聚焦重点领域的结构性工具协同 发力，并加强与财政政策的协调配合，共同为经济持续回升向好营造适宜的货币金融环境。 总量工具保持灵活 "要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"的提法，与此前中央政治局会议"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策"的定调一脉相承，进一步明确了新一年宏观政策的总体方向。 业界专家普遍认为，"适度宽松"的基调并非简单重复，其内涵在新形势下更为丰富和精准。民生银行首 席经济学家温彬指出，一方面，它意味着货币政策将延续支持性取向，为经济持续复苏与高质量发展营 造必要的流动性环境。另 ...