Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing private investment through various financial support measures, aiming to broaden financing channels for private enterprises and strengthen their investment capabilities [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Financial Support - Policy financial tools are being utilized to support private investment projects in key industries, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated, of which 685.9 million yuan has been directed towards 128 private investment projects [3][4]. - The establishment of new policy financial tools aims to supplement project capital, facilitating the acceleration of private investment and encouraging commercial banks to participate in financing [3][4]. Group 2: Credit Policy Enhancements - The measures create a better financing environment for small and micro enterprises, with over 90 million small business visits conducted to assess financing needs, resulting in new loans totaling 17.8 trillion yuan by June [4][5]. - Initiatives to optimize financial resource supply include implementing a long-term mechanism for lending and promoting data connectivity to reduce information asymmetry between banks and small enterprises [4][5]. Group 3: Direct Financing Initiatives - The article highlights the importance of supporting private investment projects through the issuance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which allows asset-holding companies to free up capital for new projects [5][6]. - A total of 14 private investment projects have successfully issued REITs, demonstrating a positive impact on asset utilization and financing channel expansion [5][6]. Group 4: Comprehensive Funding Support - The measures provide targeted funding support solutions, combining direct and indirect financing to enhance the financial backing for private enterprises, thereby boosting their investment confidence [6].

Group 1 - The new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting private investment and REITs issuance [2] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been allocated, with a portion supporting key private investment projects [2] - A total of 18 private investment projects have been recommended to the CSRC, with 14 projects already issued, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable price levels and ensure steady growth, employment, and expectations [3] - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan [3] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to promote the integrated development of renewable energy [4] - The guidelines aim to enhance the complementary development of various renewable energy sources and optimize energy structures [4] - There is a focus on improving the collaborative development of wind, solar, hydrogen, and storage technologies [4] Group 4 - Recommendations include sectors such as copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, dividends, and infrastructure in the western region [5] - Specific stock recommendations include China Railway (601390) for copper, China Metallurgical (601618) for nickel, and China Construction (601668) for low valuation and high dividends [5] - The report also highlights opportunities in AI and low-altitude economy sectors, recommending companies like Design Institute (603357) and Huazhong International (002949) [5]

1至10月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖说，扣除价格因素，固定 资产投资保持小幅增长，投资的实物工作量仍是增加的。尽管增速放缓，但投资结构在优化，前10个月 制造业投资同比增长2.7%。 权威解读｜从10月数据看中国经济增长点 国家统计局11月14日发布数据显示，10月份，生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动 能培育壮大，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业看，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。其中，装备制造业增加值增长8%，明显快于规模以 上工业增长，对规模以上工业增长支撑作用明显。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事陈雳说，前10个月首先消费复苏跑出了加速度。此外，新质生产力开始挑大 梁，尤其是高技术产业投资呈现爆发性增长。新质生产力从概念角度加速转化为现实的产能，尤其是机 器人产业、高新技术产业、AI等一系列大发展带动了中国经济的高质量运行。 廖博说，本次新型政策性金融工具加大了对经济大省的支持力度，同时还支持了一批符合条件的重要行 业、重点领域民间投资项目。 ...

中信证券研报称，10月CPI数据超预期引发市场高度关注，大消费领域市场涨幅居前。经复盘，2025年 我国CPI同比始终处于低位运行态势的两大核心拖累项是食品和原油；核心CPI的表现显著超出市场预 期，其中核心商品价格涨幅显著高于核心服务，其他用品和服务（主要为金饰品）、耐用消费品是其中 最超预期的贡献项。展望2026年，综合考虑居民当前损益表与资产负债表的边际变化以及国补可能有所 退坡的情况，中性情景下我们预计核心CPI同比、CPI同比中枢分别为0.8%、0.8%。宏观经济运行方 面，10月经济数据供需两端均有所回落，新型政策性金融工具落地生效仍需时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October shows a decline in growth rates compared to September, driven by weak demand and the fading effects of seasonal factors, indicating an increasing necessity for policy support [2][3]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The industrial value-added growth rate fell to 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% in September, reflecting both the end of seasonal effects and a drop in demand [4]. - The export delivery value turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in October, influenced by weak domestic demand and competitive pressures in certain industries [4]. - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 1.7% from January to October, worsening from a 0.5% decline in the first nine months [5][7]. Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month, with the "trade-in" consumption segment experiencing a significant slowdown, particularly in appliances and automobiles [5][13]. - The restaurant sector showed signs of recovery, with a growth rate of 3.8% in October, likely boosted by holiday spending [5][13]. - The overall consumer sentiment remains cautious, with high base effects from last year impacting growth rates [13][45]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market exhibited a simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with new housing sales dropping by 18.8% and sales revenue decreasing by 24.3% year-on-year in October [6][15]. - The funding sources for real estate development also weakened, with a year-on-year decline of 22.0% in October, reflecting reduced sales returns [15]. - The investment in real estate development further declined, with a year-on-year drop of 23.0% in October, indicating a lack of recovery momentum in the sector [15][17]. Infrastructure and Manufacturing Investment - Infrastructure investment growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year from January to October, with a significant drop of 12.1% in October alone [7]. - Manufacturing investment growth also decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of only 2.7% from January to October, down from 4.0% in the previous period [7][8]. - The overall fixed asset investment saw a monthly decline of 11% in October, exacerbated by weak demand and slow funding support [11][17]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial data for October indicated a continued decline in credit growth, with new loans decreasing by 0.2 trillion yuan year-on-year [27]. - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates showed signs of slowing, reflecting a trend of deposit migration and reduced lending activity [27][28]. - The banking sector remains stable, with expectations for policy measures to support credit demand in the coming months [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the re-emergence of the "deposit migration" phenomenon, with a decrease of approximately 770 billion yuan in resident deposits and a corresponding increase of 770 billion yuan in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a "seesaw" relationship [1][5][33] - The M1 growth rate decline is attributed to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit demand, particularly a reduction of 335.6 billion yuan in short-term loans [1][8][33] - In October, corporate loans remained primarily focused on short-term financing, with a year-on-year growth rate of short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 10.0%, while medium- and long-term loans saw a slight decline [2][13] Group 2 - The growth rate of social financing (社融) further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing by 560.2 billion yuan, which was a key factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [2][18] - The outlook for social financing stability is optimistic with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits expected in November and December [2][20] - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][48]. Financial Data Summary - In October, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 6.5%, while the social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][48]. - M1 growth rate decline is linked to the decrease in resident deposits, which is directly related to the contraction in resident credit [2][10][13]. Loan Structure Analysis - In October, corporate loans remained predominantly short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - Despite a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for three consecutive months, corporate investment sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by a decline in the PMI business expectations index [3][19][48]. Social Financing Trends - The growth rate of social financing stock has further declined, primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing following the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][23][48]. - In October, net government bond financing decreased by 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which was a core factor in the slowdown of social financing growth [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies, including the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][49][26]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with the government bond issuance at the beginning of 2026, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][49][26]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, primarily from the resident sector [5][50]. - The total social financing added in October was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 8.2%, while the new M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant changes in deposit structures [5][38][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's M2 in October decreased but was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to a decrease in household and corporate deposits and an increase in government department deposits. The overall M2 continued to remain at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy remained loose. The year-on-year decline in new social financing was mainly due to a decrease in household credit demand and fiscal financing demand, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit slowed down. Given the current slowdown in domestic economic growth and reduced external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the completion of the投放 of new policy-based financial instruments in October, the boosting effect on social financing may become more apparent, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to gradually accelerate. In the short term, financial data indicates a slowdown in overall domestic demand, which is negative for domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate. In the medium to long term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate further [2]. - M1 slightly declined, while M2 remained at a high level. Currently, the overall capital supply remains stable, the supply of base money increases, and the monetary policy remains loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal policies, and the investment of policy-based financial instruments, the demand for credit creation is expected to pick up, and M2 is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short term [2]. - The new RMB loans in October were lower than expected and decreased year-on-year, mainly due to a significant decline in household sector loans. The new corporate loans increased year-on-year, but the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were affected by factors such as local government debt repayment and the yet - to - be - realized boosting effect of new policy - based financial instruments. The new bill financing increased significantly year - on - year [3]. - The new social financing scale in October was lower than expected and decreased year - on - year. The financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in the financing demand of the household and government sectors. In the short and medium term, government financing may continue to slow down but maintain relatively high demand. The financing demand of the corporate sector is expected to gradually improve in the medium to long term, while the financing demand of the household sector will continue to be dragged down by weak real estate demand. The process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the medium to long term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Data - In October, the new RMB loans were 22 billion yuan (expected 50 billion yuan, previous value 129 billion yuan), the new social financing scale was 814.9 billion yuan (expected 1165 billion yuan, previous value 3529.6 billion yuan), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2% (expected 8.1%, previous value 8.4%) [1][2]. - M1 year - on - year growth rate was 6.2% (expected 7.0%, a 1% decline from the previous month), M0 year - on - year growth rate was 10.6% (a 0.9% decline) [2]. RMB Loans - New household short - term loans were - 28.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.56 billion yuan; new household medium - and long - term loans were - 7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18 billion yuan [3]. - New corporate loans were 35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22 billion yuan. Among them, short - term loans were - 19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; medium - and long - term loans were 3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14 billion yuan; new bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [3]. Social Financing Scale - The new social financing scale in October decreased year - on - year. From the perspective of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, household and corporate credit declined, corporate bond financing increased, government bond issuance slowed down significantly, and non - standard financing demand decreased slightly [4]. - New credit in October was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31.66 billion yuan. Non - standard assets (trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills) decreased by 10.86 billion yuan in total, a year - on - year decrease of 3.58 billion yuan. Corporate bond financing increased by 24.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.82 billion yuan. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan under a high base [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The growth of social financing (社融) has slowed down, with October's new social financing amounting to 814.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597.1 billion yuan. The total social financing stock increased by 8.49% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decline of 0.18 percentage points [3]. - Demand for loans remains weak, with a notable decrease in both household and corporate financing needs. In October, the balance of RMB loans grew by 6.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" continues, as M1 and M2 growth rates have declined. In October, M1 and M2 increased by 6.2% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month declines of 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In October, the new social financing was 814.9 billion yuan, down 597.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The government bond issuance has weakened its support for social financing [3]. - RMB loans decreased by 20.1 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year reduction of 316.6 billion yuan. The issuance of new government bonds was 489.3 billion yuan, down 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Loan Demand - The demand for loans from the real economy remains weak, with household loans decreasing by 360.4 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year drop of 520.4 billion yuan. Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant rise in bill financing [3]. Deposit Trends - The total RMB deposits in financial institutions increased by 610 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan. However, household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing deposit migration [3]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a shift in capital towards more active markets [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the weakening support from government bonds for social financing and the ongoing weak loan demand necessitate attention to the effectiveness of new policy financial tools. The banking sector's transformation driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide opportunities for fundamental recovery [3]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Hangzhou Bank (600926), and China Merchants Bank (600036) [3].

风险提示：货币政策的不确定性、外部环境不确定性 宏 观 研 究 近几个月，企业和居民端信贷表现持续偏弱，不过央行已明确淡化对贷款数量目标 的关注。而且全年经济目标完成压力已不大，临近年底，政策重心转向存量工具落 地与效果观察，增量刺激的紧迫性阶段性下降，或要等待明年进一步部署发力。 投资要点： | | 021-23185645 | | --- | --- | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-23185639 | | | heyuan3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 做好逆周期和跨周期调节 2025.11.12 核心通胀缘何持续攀升 2025.11.09 出口：低增速会持续吗 2025.11.07 弱通胀助力美联储降息 2025.10.2 ...