华泰证券研报陈个，国内财政在上半年前置发力后或需适时加力，下半年关注广义财政政策的持续性及 外需波动的综合影响。然而，财政发力的持续性或面临一定不确定性——与今年政府债前置发行不同， 去年政府债发行明显后置，去年前7个月仅累计净发行4万亿元，而8-12月合计净发行7.3万亿元，由此 今年8-12月政府债净发行或将同比少增2.3万亿元，由此，我们预计3季度末至4季度初或将通过增发特 别国债、上调赤字等方式多管齐下稳定增长预期。此外，新型政策性金融工具对投资是否产生有效提振 也值得关注：如果3季度加快落地、甚至扩容，则新型政策性工具将对支撑"准财政"扩张力度起到至关 重要的作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that while external demand uncertainty is decreasing due to the reduction of U.S. tariff policy disruptions, the impact of a potential slowdown in global trade activities after the "export grabbing" trend subsides still needs to be observed [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - From January to June, the broad fiscal expenditure, including general public budgets and government funds, increased by 8.9% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to a decline of 2.8% in the same period last year, contributing positively to economic growth in the first half of the year [1] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in early August may significantly raise the U.S. weighted average import tariff level, introducing uncertainty to external demand trends [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Continuous effective fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing domestic demand and confidence [1] - The need for timely reinforcement of domestic fiscal measures after initial efforts, as well as the effectiveness of new policy financial tools in boosting investment, are areas of concern [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 1, after the month - end, the money market was abundant with major repo rates declining. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally decreased, and the convertible bond market rebounded. The yields of US Treasury bonds across different maturities dropped significantly, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - From August 8, 2025 (inclusive), the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be restored. Natural persons buying treasury bonds with a monthly limit of no more than 100,000 yuan will enjoy the VAT exemption on interest income until December 31, 2027 [3] - The central bank will use the re - loan policy for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to promote the rapid growth of loans to science - and - technology small and medium - sized enterprises. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will optimize and improve the fund management of domestic enterprises' overseas listings [4] - As of August 1, 800 billion yuan of this year's "Two Major" construction project list has been fully allocated, and 69 billion yuan of the third - batch ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in have been allocated, with the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan to be allocated in October. The issuance progress of this year's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has exceeded 60% [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability, requiring local governments to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks [7] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to be launched soon, and infrastructure investment is expected to pick up in the second half of the year [8] 3.1.2 International News - In July, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [9] - Two Fed officials said the labor market remained robust, and inflation was still the main consideration for policy - making [10] - On August 1, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, and international natural gas prices declined slightly [11] 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On August 1, the central bank conducted 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan due to the maturity of 789.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [13] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On August 1, despite the large - scale net withdrawal by the central bank, the money market was abundant after the month - end, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 8.18bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 13bp to 1.424% [14] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On August 1, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market fluctuated narrowly in the morning. After the Ministry of Finance announced the VAT on new treasury bonds in the afternoon, the bond market recovered. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, with long - term bonds showing larger fluctuations [16] - **Bond Tendering**: The tendering information of 25进出清发02 (Additional Issue 1), 25附息国债12 (Second Continued Issue), and 25超长特别国债03 (Continued Issue) was provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On August 1, no credit bond transaction price deviated by more than 10% [18] - **Credit Bond Events**: Various credit - related events of companies such as Qingdao Huangdao Development, Zhejiang Xinchang Investment and Development were reported [20] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On August 1, the three major A - share stock indexes fell, while the main convertible bond indexes rose. The convertible bond market rebounded, with most individual bonds rising [19] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the approval of convertible bond issuance by companies such as Jinlang Technology and the expected trigger of conversion price downward adjustment and early redemption of some convertible bonds was reported [27] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On August 1, due to the weak non - farm data and significant downward revision of the previous value, the yields of US Treasury bonds across different maturities declined significantly. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds and that between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds widened [23][25] - **European Bond Market**: On August 1, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [28] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of the top 10 Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with the largest gains and losses were reported [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the commodity market, most chemical products prices declined on August 4, 2025, compared to the previous day. The macro - economic environment has both positive and negative factors, with some policies supporting economic growth while trade and geopolitical issues bring uncertainties. In the financial market, A - shares had a short - term adjustment, and different investment strategies are recommended based on market trends [5][7][8][21][23] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Commodity Market Chemicals - On August 4, 2025, most chemical product prices decreased. For example, crude oil dropped by 2.823% to 513.00, and fuel oil fell by 1.852% to 2,862.00. Only paper pulp remained unchanged [5] Agricultural Products - Some agricultural products like yellow soybean 1 and soybean meal increased, while others such as soybean oil, palm oil, and cotton decreased. For instance, yellow soybean 1 rose 0.267% to 4,133.00, and palm oil dropped 1.414% to 8,784.00 [5] 2. Macro - economic News - Policy news includes tax exemption for natural - person bond interest income, expected acceleration of government bond issuance, and promotion of new policy - based financial instruments. Market news shows a booming North - exchange new - stock market and frequent price - increase notices from paper companies. Economic data indicates stable growth in national enterprise sales revenue in the first half of the year, with the manufacturing sector growing faster than the overall average [7][8][9] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a weak supply - demand situation, expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but with a downward trend. Oil market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weak. Sugar market is recommended to short at high prices. Corn market suggests waiting and seeing. Hog market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Egg market recommends shorting on rebounds. Cotton market may have a small technical rebound [13][15] Energy and Chemicals - Urea price is expected to be weak in the short - term. Caustic soda price is expected to be stable with a slight decline. Coking coal and coke are expected to face pressure. [14][15][17] Industrial Metals - Copper price is under pressure, and aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment. Alumina price is in a high - level adjustment with an over - supply situation. Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Lithium carbonate price suggests waiting and seeing [16][17][18] Options and Finance - A - shares had a short - term adjustment. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility. It is recommended to be flexible in investment and focus on small - and medium - cap index opportunities [20][21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Suzhou officials and the chairman of the China Export-Import Bank emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration to enhance financial support for Suzhou's economic development and international trade initiatives [1][3]. Group 1: Suzhou's Economic Strategy - Suzhou is committed to deepening the implementation of Xi Jinping's important speeches, expanding high-level opening-up, and stabilizing foreign trade and investment [3]. - The city aims to improve the quality and efficiency of its open economy and promote sustainable economic recovery [3]. Group 2: Financial Support and Collaboration - Suzhou officials requested the China Export-Import Bank to prioritize the city in its strategic layout, focusing on new policy financial tools, digital finance, foreign trade transformation, and supporting enterprises in going global [3]. - The China Export-Import Bank expressed gratitude for Suzhou's support and highlighted the city's strong industrial foundation, vast market space, excellent business environment, and good financial ecosystem as key factors for investment [3]. Group 3: Future Development Focus - The China Export-Import Bank aims to integrate deeply into Suzhou's modernization process, leveraging its advantages to expand functional business areas [3]. - The bank will focus on technology innovation, industry cultivation, international cooperation, and financing for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises to empower Suzhou's high-quality development of its open economy [3].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to accelerate the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance private sector participation in major national projects [1] - The nuclear power sector will see increased openness to allow private enterprises to engage in its development [1] - The NDRC aims to improve the pricing mechanism in transportation and energy sectors to enhance investment return levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, but this was a decline of 1 percentage point compared to the first five months, with a slowdown in June being the main contributor to the overall decrease in growth [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Performance - The infrastructure investment growth rate has slowed down, primarily due to extreme weather and price factors impacting the investment pace [1] - The support from fiscal policies for infrastructure investment has been relatively weaker compared to previous years in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts believe that with increased fiscal efforts to stabilize growth in the second half of the year, new major projects will commence, supported by new policy financial tools and other incremental policies, which will help maintain resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance in the first half of the year, highlighting strong fiscal spending but a general lack of perceived impact on the economy, suggesting a need for targeted policies to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [5][10][34]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength in the First Half - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in the first half of the year was 8.9%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of approximately 3.4% to 5.1% [5][18]. - The fiscal strength observed in the first half is considered the strongest since 2022, with historical comparisons showing varied growth rates from 2018 to 2024 [5][18]. Group 2: Perception of Fiscal Impact - Despite strong fiscal spending, the perceived impact on the economy was limited, attributed to insufficient project construction despite rapid government debt issuance [6][10]. - The net financing of government bonds reached 7.69 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 55.5% progress rate, the highest since 2022 [6][20]. Group 3: Government Debt Structure - The structure of government debt issuance showed a preference for special refinancing bonds (90%) over general bonds and special bonds for project construction, which were lower at 47.5% and 49.1% respectively [7][22]. - The issuance of special bonds for project capital was 191.7 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but significantly lower than the overall growth of special bonds [7][23]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Fiscal expenditure focused on technology and livelihood, with infrastructure spending declining by 5.5% [8][26]. - Public fiscal expenditure growth rates were 9.2% for science and technology, 6.4% for livelihood, and negative for infrastructure [8][26]. Group 5: Credit Expansion and Local Government Actions - Local credit expansion showed a contraction in major provinces, indicating a cautious approach to financing [9][31]. - The reduction in the number of financing platforms was noted, which supports the transformation of these platforms towards more sustainable financing models [9][32]. Group 6: Outlook for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of the year is on incremental policies, with expectations of improved fiscal perception due to new policy tools and project support [10][35]. - Historical patterns suggest that when fiscal revenues fall short, incremental policies are typically introduced to compensate [13][41]. Group 7: June Fiscal Data Review - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue increasing for three consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like transportation and scientific research [15][46]. - Government fund income growth was notably high at 20.8%, primarily due to increased land sales [15][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" by multiple government departments, which outlines 23 specific measures to boost agricultural product consumption, focusing on enhancing online sales and improving consumer experience [2][3]. Group 1: Key Measures for Agricultural Product Consumption - The plan emphasizes the potential of live-streaming e-commerce, encouraging platforms to support rural areas and develop local farmer influencers [4]. - It aims to explore online sales through the "Internet + Agricultural Products" initiative, enhancing user experience and expanding local retail supply [4][5]. - New food processing products will be developed in collaboration with research institutions, focusing on health-oriented and convenient food options [5]. Group 2: Quality and Health Initiatives - The plan includes establishing quality evaluation systems for beef and promoting standards for geographical indication fruits [5]. - It aims to enhance public nutrition services, particularly in schools and elderly care institutions, promoting healthy food options [5]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade standards is encouraged to facilitate the dual circulation of agricultural products [5]. Group 3: Financial and Regulatory Support - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate in loan services to support agricultural marketing and consumption [6]. - The plan proposes a comprehensive regulatory approach to ensure food safety throughout the supply chain [6]. - It highlights the need to improve urban and rural consumption infrastructure, including cold chain logistics [6]. Group 4: Cultural and Community Engagement - The plan supports local cultural activities to enhance community engagement and promote rural consumption [6]. - It encourages the organization of events that showcase local culture and cuisine, enriching the rural consumption landscape [6]. Group 5: Broader Economic Context - The article notes that consumer spending is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, driven by innovative consumption scenarios and supportive policies [7]. - Experts suggest that there is still room for growth in consumer spending, particularly through targeted financial tools and subsidies [7][8]. - The focus on reducing burdens for residents, such as lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies, is seen as crucial for boosting consumption [8].