Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices slightly declined, with support from downstream concentrated price fixing at the 85,000 level. The slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the industrial support at the 85,000 level [1]. - Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. The future supply - demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, being easy to rise but difficult to fall in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has increased. The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and with the Indonesian policy having a certain price - supporting motivation, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and price - supporting motivation from the policy end, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the premium and discount changed, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1425 tons. The LME inventory also increased, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 575 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, and the market's view of next year's demand is not pessimistic. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak. The 85,000 level may be the psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots changed, and the domestic alumina price decreased slightly. The inventory in the Shanghai aluminum exchange decreased by 239 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 850 tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and the expectation of production reduction of other capacities is rising. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, and the future supply - demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be disappointing [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the center of zinc prices increased. The domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 800 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. The export window has opened, and there is some inventory delivery overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has increased slightly, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remains at a high level. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2583 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1800 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has some relief in the supply - demand contradiction, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, tin prices oscillated. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 101 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production in the northwest region is basically stable, and the supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures - cash spread has changed [16]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, nickel prices changed slightly. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides short - term trend judgments and investment suggestions for each metal [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - The open interest of Shanghai copper futures fell below the MA20 moving average. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for eight consecutive months, and high copper prices in China are suppressing demand. The copper price is expected to continue to correct after short - term high - level fluctuations. Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.80 thousand tons at the beginning of the week. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance in fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has an oversupply situation, with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, supporting the spot premium. The domestic zinc price was also supported by the decline in domestic and foreign TC. After the consumption peak season ended, the long - position funds took profits. The zinc price is expected to find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand was weak. The reduction in production by stainless - steel plants needs further observation. The price of pure nickel inventory decreased, while the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel increased. The price of Shanghai nickel is expected to move downward [6] Tin - The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed lower. The domestic tin supply is in a real shortage. It is advisable to short on rallies or wait for a clear breakdown [7] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level. The market supply and demand were strong. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly, affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is also weakening. The short - term price will fluctuate, with limited upside space [9] Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon futures declined significantly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers continued to rise. The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation phase in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides weekly viewpoints on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on different market conditions [1] Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Copper prices hitting new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest, but there is a risk of correction after reaching high levels due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and hold some long positions based on it [1] - **Analysis**: Shanghai copper has a small discount, and Indonesia has issued an export permit for 400,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supply - demand situation is weak in China, with low processing fees for concentrates and possible slowdown in copper exports from Zambia to China. Overseas, there may be some release of concentrate inventory from a mine. There are different views among investment banks on copper prices [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors and shows a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of Shanghai aluminum in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The trading of overseas bauxite is quiet, and the domestic alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in significant surplus. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory and spot situation are unremarkable [1] Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage in the zinc market. Do not short - sell zinc in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to the high - level range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Analysis**: Low inventory supports the strength of LME zinc, and the domestic zinc export window is open. The smelting profit of domestic smelters is high, and the demand for winter storage is strong. The consumption in October was weak, but there was a slight improvement in November. The overall consumption is expected to weaken, and the export data may be better [1] Lead - **Viewpoint**: Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high levels. Monitor overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted by fundamentals [1] - **Analysis**: The external market has risen, and the domestic market is short of supply. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has also decreased. The consumption of energy storage and data centers is strong, but the battery export outlook is not good. The supply pressure is increasing [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading [1] - **Analysis**: The nickel market is in a long - position shock, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded. The downstream demand is weak, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of pure nickel has decreased, while the inventory of nickel iron and stainless steel has increased [1] Tin - **Viewpoint**: Tin prices are volatile and have certain support. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] - **Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the production is restricted by raw materials. The consumption in traditional fields is average, but there is some rigid - demand point - pricing. The inventory has decreased slightly in some statistics, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The futures price is in a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has risen and then fallen, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory of the whole market has decreased, and the price of Australian ore has strengthened [1] Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] - **Analysis**: The production capacity growth in Xinjiang has slowed down, and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased due to the dry season. The inventory has decreased slightly [1] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. The short - term sentiment is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to policy trends [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has broken through 55,000 yuan/ton. The production in October is expected to increase, and the supply and demand structure needs further observation. The factory inventory has increased, reflecting supply pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated, represented by "文文文" [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals showing different trends and influencing factors [2][3][4] - Market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations all play important roles in determining the price trends of various non - ferrous metals [9][10][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - loss themes and high capital allocation interest. There are concerns about high prices suppressing consumption in the medium - and short - term. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, with low processing fees. The closure of the port in Tanzania may slow down copper exports to China in November. There is a risk of short - term correction after reaching a record high, but the MA20 moving average provides strong support [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price rose. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [3] Zinc - The zinc ingot export window is open. LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and SMM zinc social inventory decreased. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with weak downstream demand. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation with a downward - moving center of gravity [7] Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week, mainly following the copper price rhythm. The closure of the port in Tanzania may affect tin exports to China. There is still demand for spot tin at rigid - need price points. It is advisable to short at high levels or wait for a clear breakthrough [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with active market trading. The market has strong supply and demand. The total inventory decreased. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to be in a short - term strong oscillation [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Supply has decreased significantly due to the dry - season production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan. The industry has entered a stage of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be firm, but the upward space is limited by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are firm, with a slight increase. The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, but there is a significant risk of high - level correction if policies are not implemented or spot prices do not follow [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - After the National Day holiday, the short - term price of alumina is expected to be weak, with the main contract operating in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The focus of the game in the fourth quarter is the production cut intensity of enterprises after profit decline. [1] - The price of aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton. [3] Zinc - The price of LME zinc remained strong during the National Day holiday. The domestic supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The performance of SHFE zinc will continue to be under pressure. [5] Copper - During the National Day holiday, the overseas copper price continued to rise. The weak US dollar and supply shortage are the important drivers. In the medium - and long - term, the supply shortage of copper ore will solidly support the bottom of the copper price, and the main support is at 84000 - 85000. [7] Tin - The tin price is expected to continue the strong shock. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in "Golden September and Silver October" and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. [9] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main operating range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - The nickel disk is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, with the main reference range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. [14] Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20720 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 yuan/ton. [1] - The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1687 yuan/ton, down 49.4 from the previous value; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.77, down 0.01 from the previous value. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. [1] - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum is 59.20 million tons, down 7.21% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 50.6 million tons, up 0.21% day - on - day. [1] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and related products remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference of some aluminum products increased. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. [3] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.57 million tons, up 0.72% week - on - week. [3] Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21830 yuan/ton, up 0.92% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 4225 yuan/ton, down 796.03 from the previous value. [5] Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc output was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month. [5] - The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven places is 14.14 million tons, down 9.94% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 3.8 million tons, up 0.13% day - on - day. [5] Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 83240 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference is 3149 yuan/ton, up 13.65% from the previous value. [7] Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper output was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. [7] - The domestic social inventory of copper is 14.83 million tons, up 2.63% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 14.34 million tons, down 0.35% day - on - day. [7] Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin is 277200 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 19477.39 yuan/ton, down 22.88% from the previous value. [9] Fundamental Data - In August, the tin ore import volume was 10267 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous value. [9] - The SHEF inventory of tin is 6559.0 tons, down 1.98% week - on - week; the social inventory is 7890.0 tons, down 6.66% week - on - week. [9] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. [11] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. [11] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in August was 94177 tons, down 3.75% month - on - month. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference increased by 6.52%. [13] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month. [13] - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 47.74 million tons, up 1.13% week - on - week; the SHFE warehouse receipt is 8.70 million tons, down 0.21% day - on - day. [13] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the futures import profit and loss is - 1076 yuan/ton, up 471 from the previous value. [14] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products is 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel is 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month. [14] - The SHFE inventory is 29834 tons, up 8.49% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 231312 tons, up 0.52% day - on - day. [14]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, which is favorable for precious metals [2][3] - The London gold price is $3663.15 per ounce, up $12.05 from September 12, with a growth rate of 0.33% [2][3] - The London silver price is $42.24 per ounce, down $0.02 from September 12, with a decline of -0.05% [2][3] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - The LME copper closing price is $9982 per ton, down $86 from September 12, with a decline of -0.85% [5] - The SHFE copper closing price is 79910 yuan per ton, down 1450 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -1.78% [5] - Domestic aluminum price is 20840 yuan per ton, down 210 yuan from September 12 [7] - The supply side for aluminum is improving, with mid-term demand showing positive trends [7][11] Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price is 269010 yuan per ton, down 5560 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -2.02% [8] - Antimony price is 172500 yuan per ton, down 4000 yuan from September 12, with a decline of -2.27% [9] - Supply for tin is tight due to ongoing maintenance at smelting plants and raw material shortages [8] - Antimony demand is weak, but long-term supply tightness may support prices [12] Group 4: Investment Ratings - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to expected price increases following the Fed's rate cut [10][14] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as supply disruptions and seasonal demand are anticipated [11][14] - The aluminum industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term [11][14] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [12][14] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, as long-term supply tightness may support prices [12][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fed's monetary policy easing is less than market expectations, cooling the sentiment. For copper, overseas copper mines have some disturbances, and the domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, with limited supply surplus pressure. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend [4]. - Aluminium prices were affected by the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, with long - position profit - taking. The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large, and the support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong. Short - term aluminium prices may be volatile [7]. - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For lead, the short - term supply and demand situation is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile [13]. - For nickel, the short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. It is expected that lithium prices will be mainly volatile [19]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For stainless steel, the futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless steel prices will remain volatile [26]. - For cast aluminium alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - LME copper closed down 0.28% at $9946/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79700 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market sentiment was cautious. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 to 148875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3]. Strategy - The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and overseas copper mines have some disturbances. The domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, and the short - term copper price may turn to a volatile trend [4]. Aluminium Market Information - LME aluminium closed up 0.58% at $2705/ton, and SHFE aluminium's main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton. The Fed's stance was less dovish than expected, leading to long - position profit - taking. The SHFE aluminium weighted contract's open interest decreased by 5.4 to 53.5 million hands, and the social inventory of aluminium ingots increased slightly [6]. Strategy - The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large. The support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong, and SHFE aluminium should focus on the 20700 - point support [7]. Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index closed up 0.30% at 17157 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 5.96 million tons, and the LME lead inventory was 22.54 million tons [8]. Strategy - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The short - term supply and demand situation of lead is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index closed down 1.08% at 22051 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend, and the LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decrease [10]. Strategy - The zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. Tin Market Information - SHFE tin's main contract fell 1.26% to 267840 yuan/ton. The supply decline is obvious, and the demand side is improving marginally. The domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly [12]. Strategy - The short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel's main contract fell 0.70 to 120800 yuan/ton. The spot market transaction did not improve significantly. The cost side has limited downward space, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported [14]. Strategy - The short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term price range of SHFE nickel's main contract at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel's 3M contract at 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index was stable, and the LC2511 contract closed down 1.03%. The domestic production reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly, with tight available spot [18]. Strategy - The supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. The bottom support of lithium carbonate is rising. The lithium price is likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to closely monitor industry information and market sentiment [19]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.2% to 2932 yuan/ton, and the import window was open. The futures inventory decreased [21]. Strategy - The short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract AO2601 at 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12875 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The social inventory decreased, and the raw material prices were stable [25]. Strategy - The futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain volatile [26]. Cast Aluminium Alloy Market Information - The AD2511 contract fell 0.73% to 20285 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream area's inventory increased [28]. Strategy - The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29].

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper prices decreased with reduced positions. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, downstream buyers were hesitant as copper prices rose in September. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous trading range, also prompting long - position closing. Copper prices have been rising with increasing positions since last week, breaking through the 80,000 mark, and are expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate decision [3]. - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 21,000 mark. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced resistance at the March high. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the 21,000 mark and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [4]. - Shanghai nickel decreased with reduced positions in the morning and stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position volume continuously declining. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, which was negative for nickel prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short battle at 122,000 and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate their adjacent mines in central Chile. The Los Bronces copper mine of Anglo American and the Andina copper mine of Codelco will be integrated to create a new mining area. Once approved (expected before 2030), the project is expected to produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [7]. - The research department of Commerzbank stated that affected by the interweaving of long and short factors, aluminum prices may show a sideways - oscillating trend in the short term. Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently under downward pressure. To curb over - capacity, investment in the aluminum industry is regulated, which may also ease the decline in aluminum prices. Aluminum production may stagnate or even decline slightly in the next few months [8]. - On September 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [33][35][37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The copper market's trading sentiment has been boosted by the rise of precious metals, and short - term trading is also affected by the Fed's potential September rate cut and domestic refined copper consumption substitution. The market is still cautious about the peak season. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium of the call option with a strike price of 82,000 for the 2510 contract [2]. - The downstream开工 of aluminum has been seasonally rising for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain a short - term shock, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price difference between scrap aluminum and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a weak operation [3]. - Zinc prices are supported in the short - term due to the expected decrease in smelter output in September and low inventories in the outer market. However, the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4]. - The supply pressure of aluminum is slightly reduced, but the terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The price will maintain a short - term shock in the 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton range [6]. - The price of nickel has rebounded due to the expected impact of political unrest in Indonesia on nickel production. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel has decreased. The short - term trend of Shanghai nickel is volatile [7]. - The tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8]. - After the price of lithium carbonate dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9]. - The supply surplus of industrial silicon will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10]. - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper broke through 80,000 yuan but gave back the gains. The spot copper price was raised to 80,520 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai was 190 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discount in various places remained. The downstream开工 has been rising seasonally for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is volatile, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increases the enterprise cost. The price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the impact of major events in the north is very limited. The industry inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange are both rising [3] Zinc - In September, the output of smelters is expected to decrease month - on - month, which forms a short - term resonance with the low inventory in the outer market, supporting the zinc price. The demand expectation is mixed, and the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc is volatile. The increase in ore supply is being continuously realized, and the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed down. The spot tin price was reported at 273,100 yuan. The domestic tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. The mid - stream continues to bet on price increases, and the transfer of goods is mainly from upstream to downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 880 US dollars, and the ore price has slightly adjusted. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly down. The weekly output in Xinjiang continues to increase, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to be reduced at the end of October. The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The supply surplus contradiction will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot M - type dense material is 50,000 yuan/ton. In the last week of August, the downstream concentrated procurement volume increased. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11]