降息周期工业品展望-铜 20251008 铜供应紧张，加工费低位致冶炼厂减产，废铜进口减少，印尼 Grasberg 矿山停产扰动未来产量，预计 2025 年 Q4 至 2026 年产量显 著下降，2026 年 Grasberg 矿山产量预计下降 35%，总产量减少 27 万吨。 全球及中国需求端乐观，新能源领域（充电桩、储能、新能源汽车、远 洋风电）对铜需求带动明显，预计 2026 年带动新增消费量 20 万吨以 上，中国电网投资每年新增消费量 30 万吨，预计明年电网投资增速较 高。 南亚、东南亚、中东及南美地区需求良好，土耳其消费增速突出，关税 扰动减弱，预计这些地区增量可达 40 万吨，增速约 10%。美国和欧洲 市场预期较高，AI 技术发展推动美国用铜需求，预计美国每年用铜增长 率为 10%。 欧洲政治问题影响有限，资本开支呈上升趋势。预计 2025 年 Q4 铜库 存下降约 10 万吨，2026 年缺口约 20 万吨，价格将反映预期并上涨， 阿罗比斯报告显示 2026 年深水报价为 315 美元，比之前提高 38%。 Q&A 当前铜价上涨的主要驱动因素是什么？ 当前铜价上涨主要由宏观经济和基本面因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that abundant liquidity and ongoing investments in AI are the two main drivers behind the sustained rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "wealth effect" in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue attracting southbound capital inflows [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, could lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] - The ongoing capital expenditure by domestic and international companies in the AI sector, along with continuous iterations and innovations in large models and applications, may lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - After six months of valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is considered not cheap [1] - However, with fundamentals expected to bottom out and a significant increase in earnings projected for 2026, Hong Kong stocks still hold considerable attractiveness on a global scale [1] - The report predicts that the long bull market for Hong Kong stocks since early 2024 will continue, driven by liquidity spillover effects and sustained AI narratives [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four key long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which is expected to see valuation recovery amid further domestic economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September is driven by abundant liquidity and ongoing investments and innovations in AI [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks due to the "wealth effect" [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, may lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Increased capital expenditure in the AI sector by domestic and international companies is anticipated to lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] - Despite a six-month valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not cheap, but the fundamentals are expected to rebound [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which may see valuation recovery with further domestic economic recovery [1]

在黄金史上首次突破每盎司4000美元大关之际，比特币价格反而有所回落。此番回调源于加密市场在不 到一周内大涨7.7%后出现的获利了结，同时巨鲸账户的账面收益也已相当可观。此外，美元指数正攀 升至两个月高位。不过机构对比特币的兴趣并未消退：上周美国现货比特币ETF净流入逾30亿美元，推 动总净流入突破600亿大关；据SoSoValue统计，本周再获20亿美元资金注入。XS.com市场分析师Linh Tran表示，"短期内比特币基本面依然向好，货币宽松预期、持续不断的ETF流入以及不散的避险需求 构成三重支撑。若美联储在后续会议中释放更明确的降息周期启动信号，比特币有望在四季度拓展新的 价格空间。"下一个关键考验或将来自美联储——交易员已开始押注降息，若官方确认政策转向，黄金 与比特币或能重获上涨动能。 来源：滚动播报 ...

浙商国际发布研报称，回顾9月港股市场走势，市场振荡向上加速上涨，连续5个月收涨。整体来看，港 股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。当 下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽 车、新消费、创新药、科技等。 从各个角度简要总结当下市场环境。基本面：8月经济数据整体表现进一步走弱，国内经济仍处于筑底 期；政策面：政策基调强调更加积极有为，以巩固经济稳增长的基础；资金面：内部南向资金加速流 入，外部资金环境进一步改善，更多资金开始介入港股；情绪面：市场强势表现驱动看多情绪，但市场 对于基本面的担忧仍在。 2025年10月港股市场展望及配置策略 港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。 当下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。 对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的 汽车、新消 ...

（原标题：台风"麦德姆"预计5日登陆我国沿海；美政府停摆持续｜南财早新闻） 6、乘联分会秘书长崔东树：2025年8月中国自主车企在海外部分能持续统计的地区的当地销量初步统计达到28.6万台，同比增长16%，环比降 3%；2025年1-8月的中国海外市场自主品牌销量210万台，同比增长11%。 今日关注 1、就墨西哥近日连续对我发起多起反倾销调查，商务部3日回应，坚决反对损害中方正当权益的保护主义行为，将密切关注墨方调查进展。详情 >>> 2、据交通运输部，3日，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计超3亿人次。其中，铁路客运量预计1825万人次，公路人员流动量预计2.7亿人次，民航客 运量预计237万人次。 3、中央气象台10月4日06时发布台风橙色预警。今年第21号台风"麦德姆"今天（4日）凌晨由强热带风暴级加强为台风级。预计，"麦德姆"将以每 小时25-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐增强，并向广东西部到海南岛东部一带沿海靠近，将于5日白天在广东电白至海南万宁一带沿 海登陆（台风级或强台风级，13-14级，38-45米/秒），登陆后强度逐渐减弱。 宏观经济 1、国家医保局消息，现行国家医保目录内共有230余种 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the dominance of TSMC in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of GPU and ASIC production, suggesting that TSMC is the best in this field [3] - There is a mention of a potential shift towards cyclical commodities, with a public fund director indicating that the fourth quarter may enter a cyclical phase, highlighting the importance of capital market trends [9] - The article lists several companies in the cyclical commodities sector that have shown significant price increases, including China Silver Group with a rise of 22.64%, Zijin Mining International at 14.59%, and Tianqi Lithium at 13.26% [10]

Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between Trump and congressional leaders on September 29 raises concerns about a potential government shutdown, with over 60% probability if no agreement is reached by September 30, which could lead to a data vacuum and increased investment in gold as a safe haven [2] - The PCE price index released on the previous Friday met market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, which is a key driver for the continuous rise in gold prices [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihao believes that the rate cut cycle supports the ongoing increase in gold prices, alongside heightened risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown, leading to new historical highs for gold [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although current production is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below targets, indicating a risk of oversupply in the market [2] - The IEA warns of a potential oversupply in global oil markets before 2026, with OPEC+ focusing on market share rather than price management due to ongoing production increases [3] - The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq after a two-year pause may further ease supply constraints, contributing to a more pronounced short-term volatility in the oil market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal funds are set to run out on October 1, raising the risk of a government shutdown [5] - The European Central Bank may need to adjust its policy stance due to weak economic growth, as indicated by comments from ECB President Lagarde [3] - Upcoming key economic data includes the Chicago PMI and JOLTs job openings, which could influence market sentiment [10]

美国克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克：在通胀方面存在压力，尤其是在服务业。 欧洲央行管委Gabriel Makhlouf：欧洲央行的降息周期已接近尾声。我对目前的状况感到满意，但我们 需要密切关注事态发展。政策制定者需要保持警惕，因为美国关税的全面影响仍完全传导到欧盟进口。 日本央行审议委员野口旭：数据显示日本正稳步朝着2%的通胀目标迈进，这意味着调整政策利率的必 要性比以往任何时候都要高。 【交易思路】 摘要周一，受美国政府可能关门的影响，美元指数震荡下行，并跌破98关口，最终收跌0.24%，报 97.94。现货黄金在亚盘冲破3800美元大关后持续高歌猛进，并在美盘时段将历史新高刷新至3830美元 上方，最终收涨1.95%，收报3833.76美元/盎司；现货白银同样在亚盘时段拉升，随后陷入区间震荡， 最终收涨1.84%，报46.91美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周一，受美国政府可能关门的影响，美元指数震荡下行，并跌破98关口，最终收跌0.24%，报97.94。现 货黄金在亚盘冲破3800美元大关后持续高歌猛进，并在美盘时段将历史新高刷新至3830美元上方，最终 收涨1.95%，收报3833.76美元/盎司；现货白银同样 ...

来源：市场资讯 来源：金十数据 目前，市场正进入本季度的倒数第二个交易日，股指期货显示其走势强劲，投资者持续无视上周从历史 高点小幅回落的走势。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）仍低于16，表明尽管未来几天可能会有一 系列市场催化剂，尤其是美国就业部门的数据，但交易员们依然看涨。 然而，如果本周中期美国政府再度面临停摆，官方非农就业报告可能无法在周五发布。Wedbush的分析 师塞思·巴沙姆指出，市场目前"毫无畏惧"，不仅波动性低，而且信贷息差也收紧，这表明投资者并不 担心会出现有意义的经济衰退。 他还认为，随着"大而美法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill）减税政策的实施，消费支出范围将有所改善。 "最近的减税措施可能会使2026年的退税水平至少提高5%，并可能提高15%，从明年2月开始，为低收 入家庭提供有力的支持，并可能提振经济，"巴沙姆说道。 巴沙姆补充说，在美股市场中，许多行业的估值与历史水平相比并不高，其中包括医疗保健、日常消费 品、房地产和材料。 至于对当前市场与互联网泡沫时代相似之处的担忧，他表示："人工智能的狂热出现了'黄灯'，但没有 出现'红灯'。"例如，在1999年，大约 ...