2025 年 06 月 03 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——5 月第 4 期：资金净流入 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/6/3 24/8/15 24/10/27 25/1/8 25/3/22 25/6/3 证券分析师：张冬冬 产业资本：上周产业资本减持 36.9 亿元，纺织服饰、交通运输、汽 车增持前三；机械设备、电子、计算机减持前三。上周解禁规模 120.02 亿元，电子、计算机、通信解禁规模前三。 风险提示：1、市场波动过大；2、数据具有时滞性；3、历史数据不 代表未来。 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 资金净流入，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 5.47 万亿，较前一 周下降，换手率 6.49%，较前一周下降，融资供给端中基金、ETF 净流入， 两融净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 6.04 ...

展望2025年下半年，张凯烽认为，寿险有望逐步走出调整周期，迈向低利率时代的高质量发展。具 体表现为：分红险有望逐步占据主流；监管引导和推动保险差异化和精细化发展，商业医疗险供给有望 迎来增量；老龄化背景下，储蓄、养老年金等产品有望迎来快速增长。 在当前低利率环境下，加快浮动收益型产品发展转型，已经成为多数人身险公司的共同选择。但分 红险想重回主流市场并非易事。北京排排网保险代理有限公司总经理杨帆分析称，一是市场竞争激烈， 如何突出产品特色成为一大难题；二是消费者对分红险的认知度和接受度有待提高；三是保险公司需要 加强风险管理，确保分红险的收益稳定性。 "展望未来，保险公司产品结构中纳入更多分红险是大势所趋，但仍需时间。"中信证券非银行金融 业联席首席分析师童成墩指出，短期内，无论是渠道适应分红险销售，还是客户消费倾向的转变，都具 有挑战性。长期看，随着利率不断走低，分红险作为一种类固收产品，能够满足市场需求，规模增长将 具有持续性。 东吴证券首席战略官、研究所联席所长孙婷表示，当前分红险业务正处于市场接受度逐步提升阶 段，叠加商业银行陆续下调存款利率，保险产品相对吸引力提升，预计各险企新单保费增速持续改 善 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Index is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year, driven by new stimulus policies from mainland China, with a target price of 25,000 points and reduced overall volatility [1] - The widening interest rate differential between China and the US has historically pressured Hong Kong stocks, but this trend has reversed in recent years, with the recent increase in the differential coinciding with a rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is considered reasonable, with an average dividend yield of 3.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times, both near historical averages [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant inflow of mainland funds into Hong Kong stocks, with over HKD 575.5 billion net inflow as of May 9 this year, driven by the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks compared to declining long-term bond yields in mainland China [1] - The inflow of international funds into Hong Kong stocks has primarily come from Southeast Asia and some European and American funds, with expectations of further inflows if US-China relations improve and the Chinese economy remains stable [2] - Key sectors to watch in the second half include domestic consumption, innovative technology, new energy vehicles, and traditional thermal power, as more stimulus policies targeting daily consumer spending are anticipated [2]

2025 年 6 月 3 日 总量研究 发行规模季节性下滑，信用利差延续收窄态势 ——信用债月度观察（2025.05） 要点 1、 信用债发行与到期 2、信用债成交与利差 城投债方面，2025 年 5 月，我国城投债成交量为 8011.5 亿元，环比和同比均有 所下滑。2025 年 5 月城投债换手率为 5.22%。2025 年 5 月，我国各等级城投 的城投债信用利差较上月有所收窄。 产业债方面，2025 年 5 月，我国产业债成交量为 12889.79 亿元，环比和同比 均有所下滑。2025 年 5 月产业债换手率为 8.99%。2025 年 5 月，我国各等级 产业主体的信用利差较上月有所收窄。 3、风险提示 数据统计口径不同；部分行业基本面恢复速度较慢，流动性恶化的前提下，债券 违约风险可能超出预期；若相关政策收紧，需要警惕再融资滚续压力，资质较差 的主体风险暴露速度将加快。 作者 分析师：张旭 执业证书编号：S0930516010001 010-58452066 zhang_xu@ebscn.com 整体来看，截至 2025 年 5 月末，我国存量信用债余额为 29.69 万亿元。2025 年 5 ...

| 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | 号 | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 6 | 年 | 月 | 3 | 日星期二 | 【行情复盘】： 上周 IF2506 报收于 3822.4 点，相较前一周 下跌 13.0 点，跌幅 0.62%。IH2506 报收于 2667.2 点，相较前一周下跌 25.8 点，跌幅 0.96%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 股 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】今年以来，险资举牌热潮再度兴起，热度持续攀升。截至5月底，已有7家保险公司今年 举牌15次，不仅超越了2023年全年的举牌数量，还超过了2024年前9个月的举牌量，开启了近10年来保险行业的第 三轮举牌浪潮。此前，保险行业曾在2015年和2020年出现过两轮举牌潮。 从保险资金举牌标的来看，今年险资举牌的上市公司涵盖了多家银行，如邮储银行、招商银行、农业银行等，还 有北京控股、电投产融、东航物流、中国儒意等企业。从行业分布来看，银行股是被举牌次数最多的类型，公用 事业、能源、交通运输等行业也有涉及。 华西证券认为，今年险资密集举牌上市公司，主要原因有三：一是在低利率、资产荒环境下，潜在"利差损"压力 增大，通过权益投资增厚投资收益有较大的现实需求；二是出于优化财务报表考虑，在新会计准则下，举牌上市 公司之后的会计计量方式变更，可以提升险企利润表稳定性；三是多项支持中长期资金入市的政策推出，也让险 资举牌动力增强。 除此之外，目前，保险资金长期投资改革试点正在加速落地，待第三批600亿元试点资金全部获批后，改革试点的 资金总规模将增至2220亿元。该试点在一定程度上可以解决险资入市投资的堵 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 超长债周报 贸易战形势扑簌迷离，超长债成交量保持高位 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周贸易战形势扑簌迷离，债市跟随波动。另外资金面维 持宽松态势，隔夜利率再次回落至 1.4%，超长债小幅承压，全周 V 型走 势。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投相当活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 5 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 23BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，4 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 4 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，较 3 月回落 0.8%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，4 月 CPI 为-0.1%，PPI-2.7%，通缩风 险依然明显。近期中美贸易摩擦出现阶段性缓和，投资者悲观预期有所 消散，短期焦点将回到国内二季度经济数据，我们预计随着政策托底效 应的减弱，债市收益率下行概率更大。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依 然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 5 月 30 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 2B ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the fiscal outlook have led to a "fiscal reckoning" for U.S. Treasuries, with credit default swap (CDS) spreads rising to their highest levels in two years [1][5] - In May, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, experienced their first monthly decline since 2025, with yields increasing by 4 to 7 basis points on June 2 [1][3] - The rise in CDS spreads is attributed to investor worries about the U.S. government's ability to meet its debt obligations, with the 5-year CDS spread nearing 50 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.47% and the 30-year yield briefly exceeding 5%, reflecting risks associated with potential trade measures from the Trump administration [3][4] - Despite the increase in long-term yields, large bond investment institutions are maintaining lower positions in Treasuries, favoring shorter maturities [3][6] - The CDS spread increase is seen as a temporary reaction by investors awaiting a new budget agreement to raise the debt ceiling, rather than an indication of an impending financial crisis or widespread default [6][7] Group 3 - The upcoming labor market reports are expected to significantly influence U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 [4] - The U.S. Treasury has reached its debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion, with limited borrowing capacity, raising concerns about the timing of when the government will exhaust its borrowing ability [5][6] - The passage of Trump's significant tax cut plan, estimated to increase U.S. debt by an additional $4 trillion, adds to the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its impact on Treasury investments [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 产品结构破局，资产配置渐变 ——中国机构配置手册（2025版）之保险资管篇 行业研究 · 深度报告 非银金融·保险 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 01 负债结构优化 02 资产负债联动 证券分析师：孔祥 联系人：王京灵 021-60375452 0755-22941150 kongxiang@guosen.com.cn wangjingling@guosen.com.cn S0980523060004 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点概要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 保险资金区别于其他资管的核心在于通过资金池运作实现资产负债联动。险资资产配置需契合负债特性，核心在于实现 收益、久期与现金流匹配。具体体现在：精细化分账户管理：根据不同保险产品（如传统险、分红险、万能险、投连险 等）负债成本、久期、保证利率、流动性需求等特性，设立独立投资账户，分别设定风险收益目标和投资策略；强化久期 缺口管理：通过加大配置超长期债券、长久期非标资产、并适度利用低利率时期的债券交易进行再投资平衡，力争缩小 或维持可控的久期缺口，降低利率风险敞口；加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Section 899 of the "Big Beautiful Act" poses a significant threat to Wall Street, potentially leading to the largest capital tax impact in history, particularly affecting foreign investors in the U.S. market [1][2]. Tax Implications - Section 899 introduces a "progressive penalty tax" for investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase in tax rates, escalating by 5% annually, with a maximum additional burden of 20% [2]. - The scope of this tax is extensive, potentially impacting passive income, real estate investments, business profits, and even foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds that previously enjoyed tax exemptions [2]. Market Impact - The ambiguity surrounding whether financial assets will be included in the tax scope raises concerns among experts, despite current indications suggesting fixed income assets may be excluded [3]. - As of December 2024, U.S. liabilities to foreign entities are projected to reach $39.8 trillion, accounting for 134% of nominal GDP, with securities holdings comprising 83% and long-term securities at 96% [3]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign official investors hold a significantly larger share of U.S. fixed income markets compared to equities, meaning any tax policy changes could directly affect U.S. Treasury yield curves [6]. - The report indicates that foreign private investors tend to hold longer-term Treasuries, while official investors prefer shorter maturities, suggesting that rising tax costs could lead to greater selling pressure on long-term bonds [8]. Regional Effects - Europe is likely to be the biggest "victim" of these tax changes, with $3.5 trillion of the $5.39 trillion in foreign direct investment in the U.S. coming from Europe, making Eurozone countries the largest holders of U.S. fixed income and equity securities [11]. Currency and Credit Market Effects - The tax implications signal a negative outlook for the U.S. dollar, as the 4% current account deficit heavily relies on foreign capital inflows, and the new tax could deter foreign investment, leading to a weaker dollar against G10 currencies [14]. - In the corporate bond market, liquidity pressures and credit spreads may widen, with foreign investors holding about 25% of U.S. corporate debt, which could face volatility if additional tax burdens are imposed [14]. Securitized Products and Real Estate - Foreign investors show a stronger demand for agency bonds compared to securitized credit; unfavorable tax policies on non-government-backed assets could benefit GNMA mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [15]. - In commercial real estate (CRE), where foreign buyers account for 5-10% of transactions, tax changes could have a more pronounced impact on valuations compared to residential real estate [15]. Hedge Fund Risks - The definition of "applicable persons" in the tax clause could significantly affect hedge funds, as a 20% tax rate increase could eliminate arbitrage opportunities, fundamentally disrupting the business models of quantitative hedge funds reliant on U.S. markets [17]. Legislative Outlook - The likelihood of the worst-case scenario materializing from Section 899 remains uncertain, with the primary aim of the clause being to provide leverage in tax and trade negotiations [18][21]. - The Senate is seen as a potential "lifeline" to clarify the applicability of Section 899, with expectations that it may review the details, including income scope and applicable entities [22].