各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward. The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The view is that it will operate in a range - bound and sorted manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market believes that Fed Chairman Powell's comments and policy statements are less hawkish than expected, the US dollar weakens, and the market focuses on more economic data guidance [3] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase under high profits. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, continuing the weak trend in the off - season [4] - The aluminum plate and strip operating rate is 65.0%, affected by environmental protection restrictions and order decline. The aluminum cable operating rate remains at 62.4%, with slow grid order pick - up. The aluminum profile operating rate rebounds by 1 percentage point to 53%, supported by short - term concentrated delivery of industrial materials. The aluminum foil operating rate stabilizes at 70.4%, with a structural hedge between shrinking traditional packaging foil demand and stable new - energy aluminum foil demand. The recycled aluminum is the most significantly declining sector due to environmental warnings and high raw material costs [4] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the delayed shipment of Xinjiang aluminum ingots and the toughness of aluminum product consumption, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered the continuous accumulation stage [4] - Supported by macro - interest rate cuts, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the inventory trend is volatile, and the price continues to rise. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a short - term range, and high prices have a greater inhibitory effect on consumption. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance [5]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月15日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。国家统计局新闻发言 人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示，今年以来，面对外部环境变化和内部风险 挑战叠加的复杂严峻局面，在党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，积极做强国内大循环，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。从全 年情况看，尽管有困难有压力，但我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力，新动能稳步成长，实现全年预 期目标有较好条件。近期，主要国际组织纷纷上调对中国经济增长预期，也表明国际社会对中国经济发 展的信心。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） ...

Market Overview - US stock market continued its downward trend with technology stocks underperforming, leading to declines in all three major indices [2] - The US dollar remains weak, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.17%, while gold prices show strong performance and oil prices are under pressure [2] - Hong Kong pre-market securities generally declined, indicating a likely lower opening for the market [2] - The mainland Chinese stock market also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.5% and trading volume decreasing [2] - The overall market sentiment in Hong Kong is cautious, with blue-chip stocks generally declining and expectations for the index to test support at 25,200 points, while resistance is seen at 26,000 points [2] Industry Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for high-quality development and a new development pattern for the upcoming year, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and enhancing policy effectiveness [3] - Key priorities include expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a focus on managing local fiscal difficulties [3] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on supporting economic stability, reasonable price recovery, and enhancing liquidity [3] - The market anticipates that the economic growth target will remain around 5% for the next year, with no strong measures expected to stimulate the macro economy [3]

11月主要经济指标出炉，供需两端延续放缓态势。分析人士表示，今年经济社会发展目标任务即将顺利完成，明年GDP增速目标或仍在5%左右。着眼于实 现明年经济"开门红"，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望前置发力。 国家统计局周一发布的数据显示，1-11月，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比下降2.6%，降幅比前10个月扩大0.9个百分点，创2020年7月以来新低。11月，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速比上月略降0.1个百分点，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速比上月放缓1.6个百分点。 总体来看，11月中国经济呈现生产强于需求、外需好于内需的特征。 生产方面，工业增加值保持平稳较快增长，同比增速略有放缓，但环比增速加快0.27个百分点。 智通财经记者 | 张一诺 数据来源：国家统计局 制图：智通财经 "受假期扰动因素消退和外需阶段性回升影响，工业生产环比虽有所加快，但受累于内需修复偏慢、制造业动能不足、公用事业增速回落，工业增加值同比 走弱。"中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬在发给智通财经的评论中称。 细分数据来看，新质生产力和出口是工业生产的两大动力来源。其中，11月，高技术工业生产同比增速较上月加 ...

Macro: Supply and Demand Gap Widening - In November, supply growth slightly decreased year-on-year, with industrial added value and service production indices at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively, compared to 4.9% and 4.2% in October [5] - The demand structure showed marginal improvement in export delivery value, while domestic demand growth declined, primarily driven by the decrease in industrial added value growth [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the main factor for the overall investment decline [7] Consumer Sector: Consumption Growth Slows - In November, total retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023 [6] - The decline in consumption was attributed to weakened support from trade-in programs and high base effects from the previous year, particularly in categories like home appliances (-19.4%) and automotive (-8.3%) [6] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival caused a shift in consumption patterns, pulling forward sales from November, which contributed to the slowdown in retail sales growth [6] Investment: Fixed Asset Investment Decline - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment expanded to 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the primary contributor [7] - The November fixed asset investment saw a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 1.03%, a slight narrowing from October's 1.51% [7] - The government is expected to push for investment stabilization, with additional funding support anticipated to improve investment data by 2026 [7] Real Estate: Continued Weakness - The real estate market remains weak, with new housing sales area declining by 17.3% year-on-year in November, a slight improvement from October's 18.8% decline [10] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid weak market demand [10] - The overall investment environment remains pressured, with the government emphasizing the need for stabilization measures [10] Financial Sector: Credit Demand Weakness - In November, new social financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, but new RMB loans decreased by 390 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand [25][26] - The decline in credit demand is attributed to slow recovery in the real economy and weakened demand in the real estate sector [26] - The government bonds and corporate bonds have been the main contributors to social financing, indicating a reliance on these instruments for economic support [26] Commodity Sector: Demand Needs Boost - In November, domestic crude oil production was 4.3 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net imports were 12.43 million barrels per day, up 4.8% [15] - The steel sector faced a decline in production, with crude steel output down 10.9% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [17] - The copper market showed a year-on-year increase in production by 9.7% in November, but demand remained subdued due to seasonal factors [19]

Economic Data - In November, industrial, service, consumption, and investment data showed a downward trend due to high base effects and adjustments in the real estate market, while exports and retail services saw a rebound [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in November, the overall housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to adjust, but some indicators improved, with new home prices rising in eight cities [3] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to discuss the implementation of measures based on the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on macroeconomic stability and the development of the capital market [2][5] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a notice aiming to cultivate internationally competitive service outsourcing enterprises by 2030 [3] Market Performance - On December 15, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.55% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.1%, with a total trading volume of 1.77 trillion yuan [7] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.34%, with the technology sector seeing a decline of 2.48% [7] Company Developments - Muxi Co., Ltd. is set to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 17, 2025 [10] - China Molybdenum plans to acquire 100% equity in two subsidiaries of Canadian-listed EQX for $1.015 billion, gaining full rights to four gold mines in Brazil [10] - McDonald's announced a price increase of 0.5 to 1 yuan for some menu items starting December 15, 2025 [10] International Dynamics - The U.S. stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.59%, while major tech stocks like Apple and Amazon saw gains [12] - European leaders reached a consensus that any territorial concessions by Ukraine would only be made with strong security guarantees in place [12]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in China have shown positive effects, leading to stable economic growth and expansion in various sectors, including production, market sales, and foreign trade [2][5]. Economic Performance - In November, industrial production maintained steady growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, remaining consistent with the previous month [3]. - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with its added value rising by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [3]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in cosmetics (6.1%) and gold and jewelry (8.5%) [3]. Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, unchanged from the previous month [4]. - Consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of price recovery [4]. Policy Support - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has played a crucial role in supporting stable economic operations [5]. - Policies aimed at promoting consumption and investment have been effective, with significant increases in retail sales of home appliances (14.8%), cultural office supplies (18.2%), and communication equipment (20.9%) from January to November [6]. Investment and Production - Equipment investment grew by 12.2% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth [6]. - The added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3%, accounting for 36.4% of total industrial output [6]. Business Performance - From January to October, the revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.8%, while profits rose by 1.9%, marking three consecutive months of growth [7]. - In the service sector, revenue increased by 7.6% and profits by 7.8% during the same period [7]. Outlook for Economic Goals - The data from the first eleven months indicates favorable conditions for achieving the annual economic growth target, supported by expanding market demand and effective macro policies [8]. - The ongoing implementation of policies related to "two new" and "two heavy" constructions is expected to further stimulate demand and production [9].

国家统计局最新数据显示，11月份，更加积极有为的宏观政策持续显效，国民经济延续了稳中有进的发 展态势。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，下阶段，要全面贯彻落实中 央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，持续提升宏观经济治 理效能，持续扩大国内需求，强化创新驱动，深化改革开放，推进全面绿色转型，更好保障和改善民 生，推动经济持续健康发展。 就业物价稳定。11月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，与上月持平。居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，涨 幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，连续3个月回升。其中，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，连续3个 月涨幅稳定在1%以上。 民生保障有力。今年我国粮食再获丰收，为民生保障和居民增收打下坚实基础。各地加大能源保供力 度，有力保障冬季生产生活用能需求。民生投入持续加大，居民出行、购物等新业态新场景加快建设， 民生基础设施不断完善。 政策成效持续显现 付凌晖表示，今年以来，面对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区各部门按照党中央决策部署，及时出 台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需求、促进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于 ...

Economic Performance - In November, China's economy continued to show a steady and progressive development trend, characterized by stable production growth, expanded market sales, resilient foreign trade, stable employment and prices, and strong social welfare support [1] - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, while the service production index rose by 4.2% [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, and the total import and export value increased by 4.1% [1] New Economic Drivers - The new economic drivers have been continuously strengthening, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.2% and digital product manufacturing value-added growing by 9.3% from January to November [1][2] - The production of industrial robots and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 29.2% and 10.6%, respectively [1] Consumption and Investment Trends - There has been a rapid growth in service consumption, particularly in cultural and sports services, with retail sales in these categories increasing by over 10% year-on-year [2] - However, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is also slowing down [3] Policy Outlook - The recent Central Economic Work Conference outlined comprehensive plans for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote qualitative and effective improvements in the economy [3]