Economic Data Summary - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 42,287 billion yuan in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first half of the year was 248,654 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [2] Financial Data Insights - In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while M2 rose by 8.3% [4] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.9% [4] - Financial institutions issued 2.2 trillion yuan in new RMB loans in June, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a loan growth rate of 7.1% [4] Real Estate Market Analysis - In June, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year [3] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but sales area and prices are still declining year-on-year, indicating a gradual process of bottoming out [3] Market Performance Overview - On July 15, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% at 3,505.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% to 10,744.56 points [5] - The ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% to 2,235.05 points, and the Sci-Tech 100 Index rose by 0.62% to 1,077.46 points [5] - Among the sectors, telecommunications, computers, and electronics saw the highest gains, while coal, agriculture, and public utilities experienced the largest declines [5] Market Activity and Trends - The total market turnover reached 16,352.67 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day [6] - The margin trading balance was reported at 18,853.90 billion yuan, also reflecting an increase [6] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [6]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The first industry added value was 3.12 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the second industry added value was 23.91 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3%; and the third industry added value was 39.03 trillion yuan, growing by 5.5% [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q1, GDP grew by 5.4%, while in Q2, it slightly decreased to 5.2% [1][3] - The service sector, retail sales, and import-export growth improved in Q2 compared to Q1, although industrial output and fixed asset investment growth weakened [3] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year in the first half, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to Q1 [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday consumption and inbound tourism [4] - The number of inbound tourists increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 72.7% and 59.4% during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, respectively [4] Trade and Exports - The total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [5] - Export growth showed resilience despite external pressures, with a notable recovery in June [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment up by 7.5% and infrastructure investment up by 4.6% [6][7] - Real estate investment declined by 11.2%, indicating a significant contraction in this sector [7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government plans to accelerate growth-stabilizing policies in the second half of the year to support economic stability [8] - The macroeconomic policies implemented have shown effectiveness, contributing to a stable economic environment [8] - There is an emphasis on diversifying trade relationships to reduce dependency on single markets [8] Market Sentiment - Despite a nominal GDP growth of 4.25%, there is a noted discrepancy between macroeconomic data and microeconomic experiences, indicating a "temperature difference" in economic perception [9] - Recommendations include the introduction of fiscal policy tools to enhance spending and stabilize the real estate market [9][10]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the domestic GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 239,050 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 390,314 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [1] - In Q1, the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, while in Q2, it grew by 5.2% [1] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2 was 1.1% [1] Industrial and Service Sector Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service sector's added value also grew by 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 245,458 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The total import and export value was 217,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] June Economic Indicators - In June, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.8% year-on-year [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year [2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, leading to a stable and improving economic trend [2] - There are external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery needs to be strengthened [2] - Future efforts will focus on balancing domestic economic work and international trade challenges, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development to address external uncertainties [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies [1]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 660,536 billion yuan, reflecting a stable and improving economic operation [1]. - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has helped the economy withstand pressures and challenges [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has been "appropriately accommodative," resulting in a significant increase in social financing by 4.74 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high of 21.79 trillion yuan for the same period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a sideways - to - bullish trend, with the overall view being sideways - to - bullish due to positive policy expectations providing strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is sideways - to - bullish, and the medium - term view is an upward trend. The overall reference view is sideways - to - bullish. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. The stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is a sideways movement, the medium - term is an upward trend, the intraday is a sideways - to - bullish trend, and the overall view is sideways - to - bullish. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index had a narrow - range sideways adjustment. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, mainly driven by expectations of policy benefits in the second half of the year, including the optimistic expectation that the "anti - involution" policy will promote profit restoration in industries such as new energy and the supporting effect of macro - policies on economic demand. In the short term, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down, but the trading volume is still at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite remains optimistic. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In general, the stock index will operate sideways - to - bullish in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The report identifies three misconceptions regarding the dominance of small-cap stocks, emphasizing that macro liquidity and quantitative funds are not the primary reasons for small-cap outperformance [1][6][7] - The recent outperformance of small-cap stocks is attributed to a significant influx of retail investor capital, which contrasts with institutional investment trends [21][22][24] - Historical data suggests that the relative profitability trends of large and small-cap stocks serve as leading indicators for style shifts, indicating that a fundamental turnaround is necessary for large-cap dominance to return [24][27] Group 2 - The report highlights that the perception of macro liquidity being beneficial for small-cap stocks is misleading, as historical instances show both large and small-cap stocks can outperform under similar liquidity conditions [7][16][18] - It is noted that the scale of quantitative private equity funds entering the market has not been as significant as perceived, and their activity is more a response to existing market conditions rather than a driving force [16][21] - The report argues that trading intensity does not effectively predict small-cap stock performance, as historical data shows that high trading volumes can still coincide with continued small-cap strength [18][25] Group 3 - The report concludes that the future switch between large and small-cap styles will likely depend on the confirmation of an upward trend in industry cycles, particularly in the context of the AI sector [24][27][28] - It emphasizes that the current market environment, characterized by a recovery in risk appetite since September 2024, has not yet fully aligned with fundamental improvements, suggesting a cautious outlook for small-cap stocks [21][24] - The report anticipates that as the AI industry cycle gains momentum, it may lead to a resurgence of large-cap technology leaders in the market [27][28]

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to boost domestic demand, combining short-term policy adjustments with medium to long-term institutional reforms [1] - It advocates for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, including an expansionary fiscal policy that ensures fiscal spending growth exceeds nominal GDP growth, positively impacting total demand [1] - The article suggests implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity and support sectors like technological innovation and consumption [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for tax reform, specifically moving the consumption tax collection point to enhance local government incentives for boosting consumption [3] - It highlights the importance of enhancing the income distribution function of taxes to increase the income of low-income groups and expand the middle-income population [3] Group 3 - The article calls for the promotion of a unified national market by removing market access barriers and local protectionism, facilitating economic circulation [4] - It suggests improving the market entry environment for new industries and relaxing restrictions in essential service sectors like education and healthcare [4] Group 4 - The article stresses the interconnection between consumption and investment, noting that government investment can stimulate both sectors, especially in technology and infrastructure [5] - It highlights the importance of addressing weak areas in the economy, such as education and healthcare, to create a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption [6] Group 5 - The article points out that urbanization of the agricultural population is crucial for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, advocating for improved public services for this demographic [6] - It emphasizes the need for effective incentive mechanisms to encourage local governments to promote equal access to public services, thereby unlocking the consumption potential of nearly 300 million rural migrants [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, supported by strong external demand and improving internal demand, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% [2][3] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, and the positive trend continued into the second quarter [2][3] - Key drivers of economic growth include the "old-for-new" consumption policy, large-scale equipment updates, and robust infrastructure investment [3][4] Consumption and Investment - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May [4][5] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% during the same period, driven by strong service sector investment and equipment upgrades [4][6] - Exports grew by 6% from January to May, supported by "grabbing exports" and "turning exports" strategies [4][6] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy remained flexible and moderately loose, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - Fiscal policy showed a high intensity and rapid pace, with government debt net financing increasing by 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year from January to May [9][10] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds accelerated, with nearly 2.2 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued by the end of June [9][10] Future Outlook - In the second half of the year, there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [16][20] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, focusing on technology innovation and digital economy sectors [16][17] - The government plans to dynamically adjust budgets and expand fiscal spending to counter global trade uncertainties and support employment [17][20]