免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,445.00 | +90.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,948.00 | +29.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 85.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 52.00 | -9.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 260,549.00 | +6534.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 290,722.00 | +6178.00↑ | ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,890.00 | +80.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,795.50 | +83.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 160.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 191,140.00 | +53503.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 6,571.00 | +1689.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 93,475.00 | -1200.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 37,225.00 | -2925.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 23,696.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,9 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

Report Overview - The report is the 114th issue of the Morning Meeting Minutes in 2025, released on June 26, 2025, by Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute [2]. 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic and political situation is complex, with international trade patterns changing, geopolitical conflicts affecting the market, and China's domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development [7][8]. - The commodity market shows different trends. Agricultural products are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly; energy - chemical products have different price movements due to factors such as supply and demand changes and policy expectations; industrial metals are affected by factors such as inventory and demand, with prices mostly in a state of shock; the stock and option markets are also affected by various factors, and investors need to pay attention to market trends and policy changes [4][12][18]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On June 26, 2025, in the chemical industry, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell. For example, natural rubber rose 135.0 to 13,905.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.980%, and crude oil fell 3.80 to 504.80, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.747% [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **International**: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and stated China's stance on economic globalization. US President Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement and expressed his views on the Israel - Iran conflict. He also said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US [7][8]. - **Domestic**: China is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting innovation in various fields such as medicine and new energy vehicles. For example, the state is promoting the development of high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, etc., and the National Medical Products Administration is taking measures to speed up the approval of innovative drugs and medical devices [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal and poor downstream demand, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: On June 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. With the expected end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the oil market is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling is recommended [12]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's peak - season sugar pressing, while the domestic market has support from low inventory and the upcoming summer consumption season. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 5750 - 5800 range and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. With factors such as the strong price - holding attitude of traders in the Northeast and the weakening demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the pressure in the 13800 - 14000 range [14]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for long - entry opportunities [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly. With some enterprises planning to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, supply is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to run at a low level due to the lack of strong fundamental support [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by factors such as safety inspections and environmental protection, the market sentiment has improved, but the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term trend is stable and volatile [14][16]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper inventory has decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly and run at a low level in the medium term [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot market is in a wait - and - see state, with weak trading volume. Rebar inventory has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased slightly. Steel prices are under pressure but may fluctuate due to the improvement of the macro - environment [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded strongly, and the basis has narrowed rapidly. They are expected to follow the overall upward trend of commodities in the short term [16][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and if the price stabilizes above 61,000 yuan, a small - position long - entry can be considered [18]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen strongly, and the international stock market shows different trends. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the domestic market risk appetite has increased. Investors should pay attention to trading volume, the performance of the non - banking financial sector, and the formation of leading sectors [18][20]. - **Options**: For trend investors, it is recommended to go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. For volatility investors, it is recommended to hold a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [21][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the comprehensive implementation of domestic demand expansion policies in the first half of 2025 is a key driver for stable economic growth in China [1] Group 2 - The effects of the consumption upgrade policy, particularly the trade-in program for consumer goods, are becoming increasingly evident [1] - There is a significant increase in service consumption demand, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1] - New forms of consumption are continuously emerging, reflecting evolving market trends [1] Group 3 - The accelerated issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are facilitating the rapid advancement of "dual" construction projects [1] - Infrastructure investment is experiencing steady growth, contributing to overall economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a divergence in resident credit data, with a notable decrease in short-term loans and an increase in medium to long-term loans, indicating varying consumer behaviors and market conditions [1][3]. Summary by Sections Short-term Loans - In May, resident short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, continuing a negative trend, while the overall household loans increased by 54 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.7 billion yuan [3][6]. - Factors contributing to the decline in short-term loans include insufficient consumer spending, increased interest rates on consumer loans, and diminishing effects of consumption policies [1][3]. - The cautious attitude of residents towards pre-consumption is reflected in their sensitivity to interest rate changes, particularly after banks raised consumer loan rates to 3% or higher [4][3]. Medium to Long-term Loans - In contrast, medium to long-term loans saw an increase of 74.6 billion yuan in May, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 23.2 billion yuan and 197.7 billion yuan, respectively [7][8]. - The active real estate market in first and second-tier cities has been a significant driver for the growth in medium to long-term loans, supported by favorable government policies [7][8]. - Despite the positive growth in medium to long-term loans, experts caution that the growth is from a low base and should be evaluated carefully [8][9]. Overall Credit Market - The overall credit market remains weak, with the total new loans for the first five months of the year being less than 600 billion yuan, the lowest level since 2009 [12]. - Although recent financial policies have improved market confidence, the link between economic activity and credit demand has not strengthened significantly [12][13]. - Experts predict that the expansion of domestic demand policies will continue, with expectations for a gradual recovery in credit demand as economic activities pick up [11][13].

Group 1 - The overall credit situation in the residential sector remains weak, with a notable divergence in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [2][14] - In May, short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, while medium-to-long-term loans increased by 74.6 billion yuan, indicating a contrasting performance [4][8] - Factors such as insufficient consumer momentum, rising interest rates on consumer loans, and diminishing policy effects have contributed to the low demand for short-term loans [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in medium-to-long-term loans is primarily supported by active real estate transactions in first- and second-tier cities, alongside relaxed housing policies [8][9] - Despite the positive growth in medium-to-long-term loans, the actual significance of this growth should be cautiously evaluated due to the low base from the previous year [10][11] - The overall residential sector's new loans from January to May were less than 600 billion yuan, accounting for only 5.4% of total credit, marking the lowest level since 2009 [14] Group 3 - Experts remain optimistic about future credit demand, anticipating that various consumption promotion policies and upcoming shopping events will boost consumer confidence and credit demand [6][18] - The recent adjustments in housing policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, are expected to positively influence residents' willingness to take out medium-to-long-term loans [9][12] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with ongoing pressures on domestic demand and the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate credit growth [17][19]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations, with the North China 50 index failing to break through 1400 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index showing over 10 red-green transitions throughout the day [1] - The market saw a total transaction volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3339.93, down 0.02%, with a transaction volume of 389.34 billion yuan [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 10003.26, down 0.26%, with a transaction volume of 620.61 billion yuan [2] - ChiNext Index: 1985.38, down 0.31%, with a transaction volume of 272.21 billion yuan [2] - North China 50 Index: 1378.23, down 1.39%, with a transaction volume of 24.12 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Food and beverage, marine economy, environmental protection concepts, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors showed strong performance [2] - New shares, seed industry, aerospace equipment, and e-commerce sectors faced declines [2] Capital Flow - Mechanical equipment saw a net inflow of over 3.9 billion yuan, while power equipment and food and beverage sectors each received over 2 billion yuan in net inflows [3] - Banking sector experienced a net outflow of over 1 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, defense, and real estate also seeing significant outflows [3] Market Outlook - Short-term market volume needs substantial recovery, with external uncertainties such as US-China tariff conflicts affecting market risk appetite [3] - Policy support for domestic demand is expected to bolster economic growth, with improving corporate earnings potentially supporting market resilience [3] Hot Sectors - Environmental stocks surged, particularly medical waste treatment concepts, with the sector index rising over 3% to reach a yearly high [3] - Notable stocks included Yuhua Tian and Bosch Tech, both hitting the 20% limit up [4] Environmental Sector Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment highlighted the need for upgrading ecological standards, which may sustain high demand for energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [5] - The food and beverage industry saw a broad increase, with beverage and dairy sectors leading the gains, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high [5] Specific Stock Highlights - Yuhua Tian: 20% increase, 2 consecutive days of gains [4] - New Dairy: 10.03% increase, 1 day of gains [6] - Junyao Health: 10.01% increase, 3 consecutive days of gains [6]

Group 1 - The A-share major indices experienced a slight decline in the afternoon, while the food and beverage sector remained active, with the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rising by 0.97%, achieving a trading volume exceeding 11 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the food and beverage sector saw significant gains, with Huanlejia hitting the daily limit, and New Dairy, Kweichow Moutai, and Yili also experiencing notable increases [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is the largest among six ETFs tracking food and beverage-related indices, with a latest circulating scale of 4.787 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities indicated that the expansion of domestic demand policies, combined with a general decline in upstream raw material prices, is expected to improve the performance of the food and beverage industry and restore valuations [2] - CITIC Construction pointed out that the food and beverage sector's Q1 reports remained stable, with steady demand in the white liquor market and stable prices for mainstream products, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [2] - The current low inventory levels in the tobacco and liquor sectors are expected to facilitate a quick recovery in demand, with leading liquor companies anticipated to have good growth potential [2]

【导读】环保板块早盘强势拉升，大消费概念股持续走强 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下上午的市场情况及资讯。 5月28日上午，A股三大指数涨跌不一，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.07%，深成指跌0.04%，创业板指涨0.02%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3342.93 | 10025.31 | 1395.69 | | +2.24 +0.07% | -3.81 -0.04% | -1.95 -0.14% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 973.76 | 1992.13 | 5064.71 | | +0.84 +0.09% | +0.49 +0.02% | -2.73 -0.05% | 板块上来看，大消费概念股持续走强，饮料制造概念股领涨，环保、核电、CPO等板块表现活跃；而教育、宠物经济、生物医药等概念股震荡调整。 | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 光模块(CPO) | 光通信 | 饮 ...