Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, with prices showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The market is advised to wait and see [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is positive as it shows signs of a rebound from oversold conditions, while the medium - term remains in a volatile state [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last night, the US ISM non - manufacturing data was significantly lower than expected, which increased market recession expectations and pushed up the gold price in the short term. New York gold rose to around $3400, and Shanghai gold rose above 785. After the announcement of the steel and aluminum tariff increase, the US stock market performed well, indicating that the global market risk appetite did not decline. The gold price showed a pattern of rising and then falling [3]. - **Viewpoints**: The short - term view is to be cautious, with a short - term outlook of volatile and weak, a medium - term outlook of volatile, and a reference view of waiting and seeing. Pay attention to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400, corresponding to the gold price at the 785 yuan level [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the nickel price continued to rise with a reduction in positions. The main contract price once approached the 123,000 yuan mark, and then fell back to below 122,000 yuan at night [5]. - **Viewpoints**: The short - term view is positive, with an intraday outlook of rising, a medium - term outlook of volatile, and a reference view of being bullish in the short term. The main contract price has rebounded from the 120,000 yuan support level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the long - term volatile low of 122,000 yuan [1][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments with rising yields and falling government bond futures, while the central bank continues to inject liquidity, maintaining a balanced and slightly loose monetary environment. The easing of U.S. tariffs has significantly boosted risk appetite, leading to a stronger stock market and weaker bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On May 29, the interbank market saw major bond yields rise by 1-2 basis points, and government bond futures declined across the board [1]. - The central bank's ongoing net liquidity injection through OMO indicates a commitment to maintaining a stable funding environment [1]. - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a focus on the upcoming announcements regarding the central bank's reverse repos and the May manufacturing PMI data [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Following the recent adjustments in the bond market, the yield-to-price ratio has become more attractive, suggesting potential for gradual yield declines in the future [1]. - The last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival typically sees increased trading activity, presenting opportunities for premium and discount trades [1]. - The government bond ETF (511520) saw a net inflow exceeding 500 million yuan, making it the largest bond ETF in the market with a total scale of over 47.8 billion yuan, suitable for clients looking to extend duration easily [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index reached a three-month high, limiting interest in safe-haven metals, with gold prices fluctuating and ultimately rising above $3,300 per ounce [1] - The latest spot gold price is reported at $3,312.69 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, while COMEX gold futures for August are at $3,325.90, up by $3.50 [1] - COMEX silver futures for July are priced at $33.475, showing an increase of $0.315, indicating a positive risk appetite among traders and investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's tariffs, which could disrupt his trade agenda and affect negotiations with other countries [2] - The Trump administration has filed an appeal, and the outcome could lead to significant market volatility [2] - The White House National Economic Council Director expressed confidence that the tariff ruling will be overturned, suggesting multiple options for the Trump administration regarding tariffs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term, with concerns about stagflation rising due to slowing economic growth and rising inflation [3] - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, and WTI crude oil prices are around $62.00 per barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.55% [3] - Economic data shows a contraction in GDP by 0.2% in Q1, with consumer spending growth at only 1.2%, below initial estimates [3] Group 4 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 240,000, exceeding expectations, suggesting a potential increase in the unemployment rate [4] - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate a balanced labor market but highlight risks of weakening in the coming months, largely dependent on trade policies [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures for August maintain a short-term technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $3,400 [5] - The first resistance level is at $3,352, followed by $3,375, while the first support level is at $3,300 [5] Group 6 - COMEX silver futures for July show a slight technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $34.015 [6] - The first resistance level is at $33.75, followed by $34.015, while the next support level is at $33.00 [6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On May 28th, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.31% to 1985.38 points, and the STAR 50 Index slipped 0.23% to 970.64 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In the industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), and coal (+0.74%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.78%), and national defense and military industry (-0.72%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,750/181/3,477 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5.8 billion, -12.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.9 billion, -1 billion, +2.5 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On May 28th, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the actively traded contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.376, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, also unchanged; the ten - year bond was 1.618, down 0.7 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.985, down 0.1 bps [3]. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently is due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current spot bonds show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, this pattern is expected to change in the future. The government bond net supply rhythm may slow down in June, the long - term liability cost of insurance may be lowered in July, and the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short in the long - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and basis. For example, for IC2506, the price change was -0.26%, the current price was 5568.0 points, and the basis was 69.2 points [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including code, name, price changes, trading volume, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates. For instance, for TS2506, the price change was -0.01%, the current price was 102.2 points, and the net basis was 0.0 [6]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined, while the real estate market has improved [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [2][3] Group 1: Court Ruling and Its Implications - The ruling from the International Trade Court in Manhattan states that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the President's emergency powers do not supersede this authority [2] - The court's decision is seen as a significant legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy, initiated by a lawsuit from a non-profit organization representing five affected small businesses [2][3] - Following the ruling, the Trump administration filed an appeal within minutes, indicating ongoing legal battles regarding the tariff policy [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The news of the court ruling led to a nearly 6% increase in the FTSE China 3x Long ETF and significant gains in U.S. stock indices, with Nasdaq futures rising over 2% and Dow and S&P 500 futures increasing by more than 1% [1] - Asian markets also reacted positively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising over 1.5% and South Korea's KOSPI index increasing by more than 1% [1] Group 3: Analysis of the Ruling's Impact - Analysts suggest that the court's decision will boost market sentiment rather than lead to structural changes, as it alleviates tactical risks ahead of the expiration of high tariffs in July [3] - The ruling is viewed as a judicial action rather than an executive decision, adding to the complexity of the current economic environment [3] - The decision marks one of Trump's most significant legal defeats in his attempts to test the limits of presidential power through various executive actions [3][4]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].