一是市场对美联储降息预期的持续乐观。美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔昨晚表态偏鸽，认为美国就业 市场下行风险仍显著，有迹象表明现实流动性收紧，并表示将暂停缩表。投资者对美联储在10月降息25 个BP的预期接近100%，美联储仍走在降息的道路上。 二是中美贸易摩擦带来的不确定性。上周五晚间，特朗普宣布将对中国商品征收100%的关税，但市场 普遍认为这是特朗普在谈判前的一种施压手段，因此进行了一轮"TACO"(特朗普总是退缩)交易。然 而，我国商务部针对美国对华造船等行业发起的"301调查"采取了相应的反制措施，这引发了投资者的 一定恐慌情绪。在月底贸易磋商之前，中美贸易关系仍存在较大的不确定性。 三是政治经济不稳定性事件频发支撑金价上行。美国两党僵局持续，联邦政府停摆已进入第三周，美元 信用受到冲击。同时，法国、日本政局再现波动，加上印尼东部骚乱、尼泊尔政局动荡、阿根廷经济问 题以及俄乌冲突难解等事件，持续冲击国际旧秩序。 10月15日，国际金价稳步上涨，盘中站上4200美元/盎司大关。截至记者发稿，伦敦金现报4192.84美元/ 盎司，日内涨1.24%，盘中最高触及4218.13美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 | 伦 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions, particularly the introduction of "Tariff 2.0," which has led to significant market volatility across various asset classes, with risk assets declining and safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries rising [4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Tariff 2.0, major risk assets such as US stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and Bitcoin experienced sharp declines, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries saw price increases [4]. - The performance of various assets during the two rounds of tariff imposition shows significant declines, with the S&P 500 index dropping by 12.1% during the first round and 2.7% during the second round, while gold prices increased by 1.1% in the second round [5]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently experiencing wide fluctuations due to tight supply from copper mines and declining demand expectations driven by the trade war, leading to increased market risk aversion [6]. - Recent disruptions in copper mining operations, including Teck Resources lowering its 2025 production target and Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine facing production halts due to flooding, have contributed to supply concerns [10]. - Over 25% of global copper supply, approximately 6.4 million tons, is hindered by ESG-related issues, with significant production impacts in countries like Peru, the US, and Chile [10]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices have surged by 50% year-to-date, reflecting a growing distrust in the US dollar as a store of value, while silver has seen a monthly increase of over 20% [6]. - The rising prices of gold and silver are indicative of a broader market trend where investors seek hard assets as a hedge against economic uncertainty [9]. Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, copper production is expected to reach around 1.14 million tons in October, with import expectations adjusted down to 280,000 to 290,000 tons due to limited supply from major producing countries [12]. - The mindset of downstream enterprises has shifted, with a higher psychological price point that may support copper prices moving forward [13]. Group 5: Sulfuric Acid Market - Domestic copper smelting enterprises are currently undergoing maintenance, leading to lower sulfuric acid production, which may keep sulfuric acid prices elevated [14]. - The high sulfur price, coupled with ongoing maintenance in smelting facilities, suggests that sulfuric acid will continue to be a significant profit contributor for smelting companies [14]. Group 6: Strategic Outlook - The escalation of US-China trade tensions is viewed as tactical, with ongoing negotiations expected to influence market behavior in the coming weeks [15]. - For copper, the strategy of buying on dips is recommended, allowing companies to manage price fluctuations effectively [16].

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Observation of Oil and Fat Market" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to bearish MPOB data but may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term with domestic demand mainly for essential use and decreasing inventory [35] - Global soybean supply is relatively abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory remains high with weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on Sino - US relations [35] - Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On October 10, MPOB released its September supply - demand report. Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons (- 0.73%), exports were 1.4276 million tons (+ 7.69%), domestic consumption was 0.3335 million tons (- 33.21%), and inventory was 2.361 million tons (+ 7.20%). The report was bearish, causing palm oil prices to decline [4] - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. If fully implemented, it will require about 20.1 billion liters of palm - based biofuel annually, raising concerns about future supply tightening [4] - US soybean harvest is ongoing. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, China has not purchased US soybeans and instead turned to South American soybeans, increasing US soybean supply pressure. The US government shutdown since October 1 has suspended key data releases and postponed farmer subsidy policies [5] - As of the week of October 11, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 11.1%, higher than the previous week's 8.2% and last year's 9.1%. The probability of a La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is gradually decreasing [5] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease. From September 27 to October 10, China added 9 new palm oil purchase vessels [7] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean oil production was 0.2449 million tons, a decrease of 0.0886 million tons month - on - month [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.0082 million tons, a decrease of 0.0025 million tons month - on - month [7] Demand - Palm oil: As of October 10, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 850 tons [8] - Soybean oil: From October 3 - 10, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 0.0453 million tons, with an average daily trading volume of 0.0151 million tons [8] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.0224 million tons, an increase of 0.0072 million tons compared to before the holiday [8] Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.5476 million tons, a decrease of 0.0046 million tons (- 0.83%) from last week [9] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 0.0164 million tons from the previous period [9] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 0.569 million tons, a decrease of 0.0177 million tons (- 3.02%) [9] Cost - Profit - As of October 10, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1127.5/ton, the CIF price was $1140/ton, an increase of $41/ton from before the holiday. The import cost was 9714 yuan/ton. The hedging profit for November shipments was - 142 yuan/ton, and for December shipments was - 124 yuan/ton [10] Spot Prices - As of October 10, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8580 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10370 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: MPOB data is bearish, but production is in a seasonal decline. Indonesian biodiesel policy supports demand. Domestic palm oil is mainly for essential use, with decreasing inventory and expected short - term fluctuations [35] - Soybean oil: Global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high with weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations [35] - Rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition and the implications of new U.S. tariffs on the lithium battery industry, highlighting the challenges and strategic shifts faced by Chinese companies in the global market [2][3][4]. Event Overview - The CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition will take place from November 6-8, 2025, at the Guangzhou Nansha International Convention Center, featuring over 200 exhibitors and 20,000 professional attendees [2]. - The event will include the 2025 Qidian Solid-State Battery Golden Award Ceremony and the SSBA Solid-State Battery Industry Alliance Council [2]. Tariff Implications - On October 9, 2023, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on dual-use items, effective November 8, 2025 [3]. - Starting November 1, 2023, the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on lithium batteries, which, combined with existing tariffs, could lead to a total tariff exceeding 140.9% [4]. - By January 1, 2026, the "301" tariff is expected to rise from 7.5% to 25%, resulting in a total tariff of 158.4% [4]. Market Reactions - The article notes that the current tariff threats are perceived as a strategy of "extreme pressure," with uncertainty regarding their actual implementation [4]. - The U.S.-China trade relationship has seen significant fluctuations, with various rounds of tariff increases and negotiations throughout 2025 [4][5][6]. Industry Trends - Despite the challenges, Chinese companies are actively seeking new markets in Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. market [9]. - Currently, U.S. orders account for less than 2% of Chinese companies' total orders, indicating a shift in focus towards other regions [9]. - The strategic move by Tesla to partner with LG Energy for lithium iron phosphate batteries signals a potential reduction in collaboration opportunities for Chinese battery manufacturers in the U.S. market [8]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for the Chinese energy storage industry to accelerate technological upgrades and global expansion to maintain a competitive edge in the face of increasing tariffs and geopolitical tensions [9].

据澎湃新闻，10月15日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。路透社记者提问，美国贸易代表格里尔 表示，对中国商品加征100%关税无论是在11月1日还是更早生效，都取决于中国的做法。他还表示， 中国官员对最新的稀土出口限制发表了相互矛盾的声明。外交部对此有何回应？ "这个问题建议你向中方的主管部门了解。"林剑说。 "倒是美方一边要谈，一边威胁恐吓，加征高额关税，出台新的限制措施，这不是与中方打交道的正确 之道。我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误的做法，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上，通过对话协商解决有关问 题。" 路透社记者追问，是否有任何外国政府或大使馆联系过相关部门，要求澄清这些新的出口限制到底是什 么？ 林剑表示，中方的主管部门已经就稀土出口管制的政策阐明了立场，中国依法对相关的物项实施出口管 制，目的是更好地维护地区与世界的和平与稳定，履行防扩散等国际义务，这也符合国际惯例。中方的 立场一以贯之，清清楚楚。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's new export control measures on rare earths represent a significant shift in its strategy to regulate the global flow of critical minerals, potentially enhancing its leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. and other countries [1][2][5]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The new regulations, effective from December 1, require global companies to obtain Chinese approval for exporting rare earth magnets or semiconductor materials containing 0.1% or more of controlled rare earth metals sourced from China [5]. - This move is seen as a strategic decision to ensure China's long-term influence over the U.S. and other nations, aiming to prevent future export controls against China [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on U.S.-China Relations - Analysts suggest that the rare earth export controls are a calculated response to U.S. policies perceived as aggressive, particularly those implemented in September 2023 [2]. - The measures may compel the U.S. to reconsider its stance on semiconductor controls, as China seeks to leverage its dominance in rare earths to negotiate more favorable terms [2][7]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China's control over seven key rare earth metals, with the U.S. having zero refining capacity for these elements, positions China as a critical player in the global supply chain [5]. - The new regulations are part of a broader strategy to establish a "responsible rare earth supply chain," reflecting China's transition from a supplier to a governance role in the rare earth sector [6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The measures are viewed as a culmination of China's efforts to create a regulatory framework similar to the U.S.'s long-arm jurisdiction, indicating a shift in global power dynamics [5][6]. - Experts believe that these actions could stabilize U.S.-China relations by forcing a more pragmatic approach from the U.S. government [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The dovish remarks of Fed officials have boosted market expectations for Fed rate cuts, while Sino-US trade frictions have intensified ahead of the APEC meeting, causing uncertainties in the market. The short - and long - term yields of US Treasuries have declined, gold has risen, and the US stock market has shown a volatile trend. The A - share market is in the process of risk release, with the short - term index expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the market style will be balanced in the short term but is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - Fed Chair Powell said that balance - sheet reduction may near an end in the next few months and that the downside risk of the employment market has increased. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified due to counter - measures against US subsidiaries and Trump's threat to terminate trade in certain commodities. The Fed's dovish signals have supported US Treasuries, gold, and US stocks, but the US stock market has shown a volatile trend [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined. The decline was due to the incomplete clearing of market risks on Monday. The banking sector provided support, while the STAR Market and ChiNext fell. The Sino - US trade friction has dampened market risk appetite. The banking, coal, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses [3][7]. 1.3 Important News - Fed: Powell believes that the balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has downside risks, and the Fed's actions need to be carefully balanced. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Trump will announce a list of projects to be shut down related to the government shutdown on Friday. The US will announce its national security strategy in a few weeks. Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic symposium. China's Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against five US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Ministry of Transport launched an investigation into the shipping and shipbuilding industries. A document on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon [8][9][13]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The short - term index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The market style will be balanced in the short term, but it is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [16]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other data of futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, and other data of each contract [18][19]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other data of the market [41][42][43]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level [57].

美国商业咨询机构荣鼎集团（Rhodium Group）的中国业务负责人奥利弗·梅尔顿（Oliver Melton）认 为，无论中美谈判结果如何，中方新规全面取消的可能性不大。 【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 中国稀土出口政策加码升级，美国媒体还处于震惊状态中。在美欧接连对中方新规做出回应之际，美媒 彭博社15日再次聚焦此事报道称，中方此次实施的全面措施，标志着中国首次采取重大行动，对其主导 的关键矿产全球流向进行监管。 早前外媒普遍解读，稀土问题已经在多轮中美贸易谈判中反复出现，而新规出台时机，令外界遐想。新 的出口管制措施可能使中方在贸易谈判中拥有更大筹码。 梅尔顿此前曾担任美国财政部驻北京专员。他向彭博社表示，"这是一项战略决策，目的是确保中国对 美国及其他国家拥有持续、长期的影响力，从而阻止未来针对中国的出口管制。" 梅尔顿进一步解释说，中方祭出这一大招，同时表明"中国的政策制定者已经敏锐地意识到，他们有能 力重击美国主要公司的生产，比如苹果、特斯拉，从而最大限度地影响美国市场。 "经过数十年努力，中国终于在少数关键技术领域拥有了超越美国的真正优势。"龙洲经讯的分析师克罗 伯（Arthur Kroeber）和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, which has dropped to zero, raising alarms within the industry and prompting potential government intervention to support affected farmers [2][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Soybean Industry - The U.S. Soybean Association's president indicated that the zero procurement from China is a critical issue for the industry, warranting the highest level of concern [2][4]. - Historically, China has been the largest buyer of U.S. grains, accounting for approximately 25% of total U.S. grain exports [4]. - The current soybean harvest season, which runs from September to November, has begun without any orders from China, contrasting with previous years [4]. Group 2: Shift in Procurement Sources - In response to the trade tensions, China has significantly reduced its purchases of U.S. soybeans, with Brazilian soybeans now making up 70% of China's total soybean imports [4]. - China has also diversified its soybean procurement channels to include countries like Argentina [4]. Group 3: Government Response - The Trump administration is considering implementing a subsidy policy to assist soybean farmers affected by the lack of Chinese orders [4].