Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are primarily driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases, with profit-taking contributing to the sharp declines observed in the afternoon [1][4][5]. Gold Market Summary - Gold prices surged significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $4179.7 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 56% [2][4]. - Analysts from Société Générale have raised their gold price target for the end of 2026 to $5000 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and stable demand from central banks [4]. - The expectation of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is anticipated to further support gold prices, with a potential for continued upward movement [5]. Silver Market Summary - Silver prices have shown even stronger momentum than gold, with spot silver hitting a high of $53.579 per ounce, reflecting an approximate 80% increase year-to-date [7][9]. - The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity issues, leading to significant price volatility, with rental rates for silver soaring above 30% [9][10]. - Analysts from Bank of America have increased their silver price target for the end of 2026 from $44 to $65 per ounce, driven by ongoing supply shortages and fiscal deficits [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index down 3.99% to 2955.98 points [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,762 billion RMB, an increase of 2,215 billion RMB compared to the previous day [3][7] Market Dynamics - The market's performance today contrasted sharply with yesterday's rebound in technology stocks, as the financial sector took the lead in supporting the market [4] - The Chinese government's proactive strategy in response to U.S. actions, including the implementation of port fees for U.S. vessels, has set the tone for ongoing negotiations, indicating a complex and potentially volatile relationship [4][10] Sector Performance - The banking sector saw significant inflows, with a net inflow of approximately 20 billion RMB, while the photovoltaic sector also benefited from favorable policy rumors [8] - Conversely, sectors that previously performed well, such as semiconductors and internet services, experienced substantial outflows, with the most affected sectors seeing over 180 billion RMB in net outflows [7][8] Individual Stock Movements - The insurance sector, particularly Xinhua Insurance, reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, leading to a 3.47% increase in the insurance sector [8][9] - Notable declines were observed in previously popular stocks, with significant drops in companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, which fell by 9.21% and 8.18% respectively [9] Broader Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the majority of stocks declining, as evidenced by the fact that only 1,654 stocks rose while 3,452 fell by the end of the trading day [6][7] - The market is characterized by a "big drop with increased volume," indicating a bearish trend despite some support from large-cap stocks [7][10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,441 points, down 1.73%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.62%, dropping below the 6,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks led the market downturn, with semiconductor stocks also suffering substantial losses [2][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with notable drops including Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 13% and SMIC down over 8% [4][5] - Gold and precious metals stocks also fell sharply, with Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold both dropping over 6% [6] - The gambling sector continued its downward trend, with New World Development down over 8% and Galaxy Entertainment down over 5% [11][12] - Conversely, banking stocks showed resilience, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 6% and China Merchants Bank up over 4% [13][14] - The film and entertainment sector performed well, with Huayi Brothers Media surging nearly 20% [15][16] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks despite the market volatility [17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions may increase market uncertainty, but they remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [19]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][2]. Price Movements - As of October 13, the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45% [1]. - The main 20 rubber futures contract NR2511 reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The main butadiene rubber futures contract BR2511 closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.67% [1]. Market Drivers - The recent price drop is primarily driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions [2]. - The impact of US-China trade friction has led to increased pressure on global financial markets and heightened volatility in investor sentiment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in futures prices for natural and synthetic rubber has outpaced that of spot prices [3]. - Synthetic rubber prices are more significantly affected by weakening crude oil prices, resulting in larger declines compared to natural rubber [3]. - Despite adverse weather conditions, including frequent typhoons and continuous rainfall in major production areas like Hainan, Yunnan, Thailand, and Vietnam, the market has not reacted positively [3]. - Instead, the market anticipates a concentrated release of supply in the fourth quarter, further intensifying downward price pressure [3].

Core Insights - Recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $4100 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 56.41% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen significantly, with several brands exceeding 1200 RMB per gram [1] - Factors driving gold price increase include U.S. interest rate expectations, government shutdown concerns, and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Spot gold reached $4104.375 per ounce, with a daily drop of 0.12% and a peak of $4179.748 per ounce [1] - COMEX gold futures reported at $4124.8 per ounce, down 0.20%, with a similar year-to-date increase of 56.28% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices from brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao have surpassed 1200 RMB per gram [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Increased market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, with several Federal Reserve officials signaling dovish stances [2] - Concerns over U.S. government shutdown have heightened market fears regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability, boosting safe-haven demand for gold [2] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are further elevating market risk aversion, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The U.S. fiscal risks and government shutdown concerns are expected to provide core support for gold prices [2] - Continued expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may pressure the U.S. dollar, further lowering the cost of holding gold [2] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and strong global central bank demand for gold are likely to sustain market interest [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in September continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The resilience of exports was mainly supported by the demand from non-US economies and emerging markets, low base effect, and the "anti-involution" effect on export prices. In the fourth quarter, although the rising base may suppress export readings, exports may still perform better than expected. [3][7] - China's imports in September had a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, reaching a new high for the year. The increase was mainly driven by price rises, and the import volume of some consumer goods remained weak. Attention should be paid to the improvement of import momentum after the accelerated implementation of wide - credit policies in the fourth quarter. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Export: Strong Demand from Emerging Markets Supports Export Resilience - **Overall Export Situation**: In September, the export growth rate was +8.3%, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in August. The narrowing decline in exports to the US and the rising growth rate to non - US economies, along with the booming emerging markets, supported export resilience. [3][13] - **By Product Category** - **Consumer Goods**: The drag on consumer goods exports narrowed slightly but remained at a low level. In September, the year - on - year decline of four categories of consumer goods (clothing, shoes, bags, and toys) was - 12.7%, a 0.6 - percentage - point improvement from August. Price was still the main drag, with shoes and bags having year - on - year declines of - 13.0% and - 14.1% respectively. [15] - **Intermediate Goods**: The export of intermediate goods accelerated, significantly driving exports. In September, the combined year - on - year growth of five categories of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +21.0% (compared to +12.3% in August), driving export growth by 2.4 percentage points. [18] - **Electronic Products**: Due to the low base, the drag of electronic products on exports significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.0% (compared to - 8.1% in August), and the drag on exports narrowed to - 0.1%, the best performance since April. [23] - **Automobiles**: The contribution of automobiles declined slightly. In September, the year - on - year growth of automobile (including chassis) export value was +10.9%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decline from August, and the driving rate of export growth dropped to 0.4%. [23] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In September, the decline in exports to the US narrowed slightly, with a year - on - year decline of - 27.0%, and its share in exports rose to 10.4%. The growth rate of exports to the EU continued to rise, reaching +14.2%. [24] - **Emerging Markets**: Exports to ASEAN slowed down, with a year - on - year growth of +15.6%, a 7 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, but still at a relatively high historical level. Exports to Latin America were remarkable, with the year - on - year growth turning positive to +15.2%, the highest since May. [24] 3.2 Import: Significantly Driven by Price, with the Growth Rate Reaching a New High for the Year - **Overall Import Situation**: In September, the import amount had a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from August, reaching a new high for the year. The month - on - month growth was +8.5%, significantly higher than the usual 2% in the same period. Price increases were the main driver, while the import volume of some commodities remained weak, indicating that domestic demand still needed to be boosted by wide - credit policies. [29] - **By Product Category** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The decline in imports of upstream bulk commodities significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of five categories of upstream bulk commodities (iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite, crude oil, and refined oil) was - 1.6%, the best performance this year, 10.5 percentage points narrower than in August. [30] - **Intermediate Goods**: The import of intermediate goods accelerated. The combined year - on - year growth of four categories of intermediate goods (primary plastics, copper materials, diodes, and integrated circuits) was +11.6%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, also at a new high for the year. [30] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The decline in downstream consumer goods narrowed to single - digits for the first time. The combined year - on - year decline of three categories of consumer goods (medical materials and drugs, cosmetics, and automobiles) was - 9.9% (compared to - 25.1% previously), dragging down imports by - 0.2%. [30]

Market Performance - On October 14, the A-share market experienced a correction, with the ChiNext index falling nearly 4% [1][2]. Analysis of Market Movements - The recent escalation of China-U.S. trade tensions has raised concerns about the stability of global supply chains and the foreign trade environment, particularly in areas such as shipping costs, rare earth controls, and tariff threats [2]. - Technical adjustment pressures within the market have also contributed to the volatility, as the A-share market has accumulated significant gains since the beginning of the year, prompting some profit-taking amid external disturbances [2]. - The complex and changing international geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties in the policy directions of major economies like France and Japan, has led to a cautious market sentiment [2]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The recent escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions has implications beyond traditional trade, with China's export controls on rare earths and related technologies targeting the core supply chains of the global high-tech industry [2]. - The U.S. has threatened higher tariffs, which exacerbates tensions in the global trade system, creating uncertainty and risk aversion in the market, particularly affecting industries reliant on China-U.S. trade and those closely tied to globalization in high-tech and manufacturing sectors [2]. Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in the A-share market may increase, but there is no need for excessive pessimism in the medium term [3]. - The evolution of China-U.S. relations, especially with key events like the upcoming APEC summit, will be critical observation points for the market [3]. - The market focus is expected to shift towards internal drivers, particularly the policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the certainty of third-quarter earnings [3]. - In terms of asset allocation, a balanced strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors that highlight strategic value and benefit from domestic industrial policy support, such as technology and new energy [3]. - Additionally, sectors with relatively low valuations and improving fundamentals may also present investment opportunities [3]. - Continuous monitoring of incremental capital movements and changes in the external environment is advised for flexible portfolio adjustments [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be weakly volatile. The export of steel products shows strong resilience, but there is still significant pressure on supply and demand, and macro - level disturbances are increasing [1]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Although the supply has decreased, the demand remains at a relatively high level, presenting a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term. The procurement attitude of enterprises is cautious, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient, but the short - term demand has certain support [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have a weakly volatile trend in the short term. The fundamental driving force is limited, and they mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the new round of steel tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 26,600 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, and the trading volume was low. In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron - making output decreased by 0.23 tons to 2.4154 million tons. The steel mill profit margin continued to decline slightly, and the port inventory increased while the steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1146 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.29%, with a decrease in positions of 7044 lots. Some coal mine production slightly recovered, and the procurement enthusiasm of traders slowed down. The subsequent maintenance of steel mills may expand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1642.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 1.44%, with an increase in positions of 569 lots. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was slightly repaired. Steel mills purchased on demand, and some had production restrictions and maintenance [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract was reported at 5746 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The supply decreased slightly from the high level, and the demand was limited. The cost of manganese ore was relatively stable, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the silicon iron futures price was volatile and weak. The main contract was reported at 5406 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The cost support was weak, the production enterprise's operating rate was relatively high, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 56.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 13.0, down 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the rebar 01 contract was 137.0, up 10.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 01 contract was 41.0, down 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220.0, down 10.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 796.0, up 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar disk profit was - 108.7, down 23.7 from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 178.0, down 4.0 from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to enhance its export control system and maintain national security, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has implemented export control measures on rare earths based on legal regulations, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability and fulfill international obligations [3][4]. - The export control is not a ban; applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved, and China is open to dialogue with other countries to ensure compliance and trade facilitation [4][3]. - The measures were communicated to relevant countries prior to their announcement, indicating a commitment to transparency [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Tariffs and Trade Relations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's export controls, which China views as a double standard and a violation of fair trade practices [4][5]. - China has consistently stated its willingness to engage in dialogue while opposing the U.S.'s threats and unilateral actions, urging the U.S. to correct its approach [2][5]. - The ongoing trade tensions have escalated since the Madrid economic talks, with the U.S. imposing additional restrictions that harm bilateral relations [5][6]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - China plans to implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and port fees, asserting that these actions violate WTO rules and the principles of mutual benefit [6][7]. - The Chinese government views its countermeasures as necessary defensive actions to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in international shipping and shipbuilding markets [7][6]. - There is a call for the U.S. to recognize its errors and return to constructive dialogue to resolve trade disputes [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry is experiencing a positive market reaction, with China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) seeing a nearly 6% increase in stock price, attributed to government investigations into the impact of U.S. 301 investigations on the shipping and shipbuilding industries [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - China Shipbuilding Defense's stock rose by 4.72% to HKD 15.75, with a trading volume of HKD 80.2174 million [1] Group 2: Government Actions - The Ministry of Transport, in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is investigating the potential impacts of U.S. 301 investigations on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries, focusing on discriminatory measures against Chinese entities [1] - Starting from October 14, the Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for U.S. vessels, indicating a retaliatory measure against U.S. actions [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that China's countermeasures could present historical opportunities for the shipping industry, particularly if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted, potentially leading to a surge in shipbuilding orders [1] - The potential for U.S.-China negotiations to lead to the cancellation of the 301 investigation could be beneficial for the shipbuilding sector, alongside the possibility of China purchasing U.S. oil, which would increase shipping distances [1]