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关税休战后,特朗普调转“枪口”,全面暂停12国公民进入美国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 09:18
目的就是为了增加自己的谈判筹码,好让中国放开管制的稀土,奈何中国始终不松口。 没成想,特朗普政府不想着如何和中国改善关系,反而在6月4日全面暂停12国公民进入美国,变相将盟 友推开。 前言 关税休战至今,特朗普政府依旧小动作不断,前一秒还在指责中国违反协议内容,下一秒自己却宣布拒 绝对华出口乙烷。 为何特朗普在关键时刻不去寻找盟友,反而将他们一脚踢开?美国对中国的管制真就一点办法没有吗? 中美关税 大多数人聊贸易,会想到钢铁、汽车、芯片,可很少有人意识到,美国真正的痛点之一,便是深埋在土 壤里的稀土。 这东西不起眼,却是现代工业和国防的骨架。2025年5月出炉的一份国防报告,估计让华盛顿不少人倒 吸一口凉气。报告说得清楚,美国七成多军用设备,从战舰到最牛的F-35,关键材料都得指望某个特定 国家的稀土供应。 这不是可有可无的小零件,隐形战机得靠它做涂层,雷达离不开它,就连飞机引擎里抵抗高温的隔热 层,也是它的功劳。卡住这口稀土供应,等于是用一把手术刀,直接捅到了美国军工产业的心脏。它不 像炸弹那样引人注目,却能带来缓慢而致命的损害。 更让人捏把汗的是,全球重稀土市场,几乎全被那个国家攥在手里,份额高达99%。 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250605
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 08:25
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a rising trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, demand recovery on US routes, and trade policy news [8]. - It is recommended to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value of 1586; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.92% from 1107. SCFI - US West has a current value of 5172, a 57.92% increase from 3275; SCFIS - US West is at 1718, down 0.12% from 1720; SCFI - US East is 6243, up 45.73% from 4284; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1587, up 20.50% from 1317. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1252, up 0.40% from 1247; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3061, up 31.49% from 2328 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivatives Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc. have shown price increases. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1970.3, up 4.02% from 1894.1; EC2508 is at 2199.1, up 4.71% from 2100.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: There are changes in contract positions. For instance, EC2506's position has decreased by 1467 from 10553 to 9086, while EC2508's position has increased by 2192 from 45769 to 47961 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of 816.1, up 54.9 from 761.2; the 12 - 2 spread is - 187.1, up 13.2 from - 200.3; the 12 - 4 spread is 330.9, down 26.5 from 357.4 [5]. 3.3 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **EU - US Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Trade Policy**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term, but tariffs on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum will continue [7]. 3.4 Market Situation and Strategy - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates on European routes in June. For example, MSC's online opening price is 2600$/FEU, and Maersk's price has increased from 2200$/FEU to 2300$/FEU. Some companies are also looking to raise prices in late June [8]. - **Futures Market**: Last week, the main - contract futures price declined due to the unmet expectations of the US - route rush shipping. This week, the 6 - and 8 - month contracts are driving up the prices of far - month contracts due to the expected price increase in late June [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].
资产配置日报:短债异动,重启买债了吗-20250604
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-04 15:33
Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]
震荡市,寻找可能的边际变化
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-04 14:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250604
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:15
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report [4] Group 2: Freight Index Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 2073, 1118, 5172, 1718, 6243, 1587 respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.68%, 0.92%, 57.92%, -0.12%, 45.73%, 20.50% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1252 and 3061 respectively, with increases of 0.40% and 31.49% [5] Group 3: Freight Futures Data - For freight futures contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., the current values, previous values, and their corresponding increases or decreases are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1894.1, a previous value of 1834.8, and an increase of 3.23% [5] - The current positions and their changes of these contracts are also provided. For instance, EC2506's current position is 10553, with a decrease of 484 from the previous value [5] - The current values of month - spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) are 761.2, -200.3, 357.4 respectively, with changes of 32.3, -19.1, 29.8 [5] Group 4: Trade Friction Information - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6] - There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with Trump accusing China of violating the agreement, and the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6] - The EU is preparing "counter - measures" due to the US increasing steel tariffs to 50% [7] - The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - The market shows a trend of being volatile and stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8] - Spot prices: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an eagerness to increase prices [8] - Futures prices: The main contract has a significant decline due to the change in the expectation of US - line rush shipments. It shows a volatile downward trend affected by news about Trump's trade policy [8] Group 6: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]
美国4大部长表态反华,特朗普有意推翻日内瓦成果,中外交部回应
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 10:05
Group 1 - The article discusses the provocative remarks made by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during the Shangri-La Dialogue, asserting that "the U.S. can defeat China" despite recent agreements on tariffs and trade issues [1][10][12] - Following Austin's comments, three other U.S. ministers also expressed anti-China sentiments, indicating a coordinated effort to challenge China's position [3][12][18] - The U.S. government's actions, including the imposition of high tariffs on 180 countries and regions, have led to significant backlash from China, resulting in a deterioration of U.S. economic conditions rather than the intended economic recovery [6][22] Group 2 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce criticized China for allegedly delaying trade commitments, while the Secretary of the Treasury emphasized reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese resources and technology [14][16] - The article highlights the U.S. ministers' focus on portraying China as a threat in various sectors, including education and technology, which reflects a broader strategy of economic and ideological confrontation [18][20] - China's response to the U.S. actions has been one of strong opposition, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing its own capabilities and warning the U.S. against escalating tensions [22][25][27]
多重逆风因素显现 Jefferies下调力拓(RIO.US)评级至“持有”
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 06:42
Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Rio Tinto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" due to multiple adverse factors including an upcoming CEO transition, increased U.S. aluminum import tariffs, and expectations of softening iron ore prices [1][2] Group 1: Company-Specific Factors - The downgrade is influenced by concerns over the upcoming CEO change and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs on the company's operations [1] - There are worries regarding the capital expenditure required for Rio Tinto's lithium business, which may lead to increased capital intensity and lower returns if the company's expectations for the lithium market are overly optimistic [1] - The anticipated increase in capital spending for the lithium business is expected to pressure Rio Tinto's free cash flow, as it may not yield corresponding revenue increases in the short term [1] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - Jefferies analysts do not hold a bearish view on the iron ore outlook but believe that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, a persistently weak real estate market, structural adjustments leading to steel production cuts, and seasonal demand weakness will contribute to a downward trend in iron ore prices [1] - The long-term price forecast for iron ore is set at $90 per ton, with slight downside risks [1] - Jefferies expresses a more favorable investment outlook for Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale compared to Rio Tinto and BHP [2]
利率债周报:关税政策再生变数,叠加资金面宽松,债市震荡回暖-20250604
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-06-04 02:52
关税政策再生变数,叠加资金面宽松,债市震荡回暖 ——利率债周报(2025.5.26-2025.6.1) 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 时间 2025 年 6 月 3 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡回暖,长债收益率明显下行。上周(5 月 26 日当 周),基金等机构赎回压力、存单价格走高、美国法院"叫停" 特朗普关税等因素对债市造成利空扰动,但在资金面宽松以及 上周五美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策提振下, 债市整体震荡回暖,长债收益率明显下行。短端利率方面,尽 管上周央行持续净投放支撑资金跨月无忧,但债市短端利率下 行动力不足,整体小幅上行,收益率曲线趋于平坦化。 本周(6 月 2 日当周)债市料将震荡偏暖。从基本面来看,虽 然 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5,但仍处于收缩区间,显示 关税政策带来的外部压力犹存。从资金面来看,尽管本周逆回 购到期量大,但适逢月初资金较为充裕,资金面大概率将维持 宽松格局。同时考虑到中美贸易摩擦不确定性再度攀升,俄乌 冲突进一步升级,市场避险情绪快速升温,预 ...
国债买卖,何时重启
2025-06-04 01:50
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of US-China trade relations** on the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: The uncertainty in US-China trade relations continues to affect domestic monetary policy and market sentiment. Although there has been a short-term easing, the long-term trend of decoupling remains unchanged, necessitating attention to potential policy tools from the Trump administration [1][2][15][17]. 2. **Manufacturing Policy**: China emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a core policy, with incremental policy layouts focused on this sector. Despite a recovery in the first quarter, internal stability is lacking, and effective demand remains weak, indicating a need for continued fiscal support [1][4][30]. 3. **Monetary Policy Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy is showing a trend towards fiscal characteristics, with a potential tightening approach. Structural monetary policies are increasingly reflecting fiscal traits, and there may be a window for increased fiscal funding this year [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Interest Rates**: Current market interest rates have adjusted more significantly than policy rates, indicating an upward risk in interest rates. From early 2024 to now, policy rates have adjusted by 45 basis points, while market rates have adjusted by approximately 80 basis points [8][12]. 5. **Stock Market Opportunities**: Changes in fiscal direction present opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors. There is a trend of equity replacing debt in financing, with a focus on leading technology firms and inclusive consumption sectors [9][10][29]. 6. **Debt Market Outlook**: The outlook for the debt market in June suggests a potential rebound if the current liquidity conditions persist. Historical trends indicate that interest rates generally decline in June, and the market should be monitored for data changes around mid-June [16][20]. 7. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact**: The current macroeconomic policy is cautious and conservative, primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy. The easing of export-related pressures due to improved US-China relations may lead to slight short-term economic improvements [30][34]. 8. **RMB Internationalization**: The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term strategy for China, with potential new policies expected to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum. These policies aim to facilitate cross-border settlement and enhance the RMB's global use [32][33][34][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Debt and Market Rates**: Government debt levels are expected to peak in June, but the central bank's supportive measures are likely to mitigate significant negative impacts on interest rates [25]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: The recommendation is to adopt a bullish strategy in the short term, focusing on opportunities that may arise in June, particularly as the market adjusts to the end of the export peak [26][27]. 3. **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include new consumption and pharmaceuticals, large state-owned enterprises undergoing mergers and acquisitions, and traditional core assets represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the Chinese economy and the implications of US-China trade relations on various sectors and policies.
中国对美国留的后手起效果,特朗普束手无策,急于拨通中国电话
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 14:49
本文叙述皆有官方信源,为了读者有更好的体验放在了文章后缀,感谢您的支持! 早在上个月中美高层代表团就关税问题,在访问瑞士期间进行接触。 并达成了美方全面让步的临时共识时起,就有很多国内网友担心以特朗普政府出尔反尔毫无契约精神的行事 作风,在90天的窗口期结束后未必会老老实实的达成合理的贸易协定。 甚至还有不少人干脆认为,特朗普政府压根就不会等到窗口期满就会变卦翻脸,将之前谈判桌上做出的妥协 让步全部收回。 所谓的中美临时共识即取消四月二号之后,双方额外增加的全部关税的中美临时共识,不过只是特朗普政府 为了平息美国内外紧张局势的缓兵之计。等到美国各大企业和厂商库存重新充盈之后,绝对会重新挑起争 端。 对此我们当时也做出了大量相应的分析,事实上这些年来与美国政府尤其是特朗普政府的交锋,我国高层当 然熟知对方毫无契约精神的无耻本性。 针对正式贸易协定落实前的窗口期,美国可能做出的种种小动作,也早早就预留了直击特朗普政府要害的后 手。 对于稀土矿产的重要性,之前我们也已经聊过很多次了。作为当下高端工业必不可少的核心矿产之一,稀土 元素直接决定了医疗、航天、军工、交通、工程机械等等各个领域的质量和产量。 去年美国主力战 ...