最近跟着某大V买入两倍做空恒生科技ETF 07552作为港股的对冲仓位。对于杠杆ETF的磨损成 本之前有所耳闻，但具体多大没有量化过。今天拿两倍做空恒科和做多恒科画了一张图，简直震 惊了。 上图是17年至今这两个ETF的数据，发现平均值（绿线）是先跌后涨的，趋势基本和做多恒指 03037是一致的，这难道说明1倍做多恒指跟踪得好点，1倍做空恒指跟踪得差一点？ 最后，本文的目的是，提醒一下买带杠杆ETF的同学：阿祖，醒醒吧，别买了，损耗太大了。 拉格纳罗斯 美股的三倍做多纳指，tqqq。很多大v都在推，用来对冲之类的。但我就信一条。纳指这么大牛 市。他是三倍杠杆，市值竟然只有30亿。看曲线，也没看出来纳指的三倍牛市，咱也不懂，咋也 不问。但咱知道，不懂不做。 这次惊人地发现，1倍做空恒指07300和1倍做多恒指03037的每日平均值居然是上升的，由11.4 涨到了12.9，涨幅为13%，好嘛，买点做空的ETF对冲，除了实现对冲，该做空产品未来期望居 然还是涨的。 如果完全没有磨损的话，那么两倍做空07552和两倍做多07226的平均值那条线（即上图绿 线），就应该是一条笔直的水平线，但是过去一年，这个平均值居然由 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent research conducted by Kaifeng Investment on a listed company, Jialian Technology, focusing on its operational status and future plans for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - Jialian Technology is expanding its production lines in 2024, with subsidiaries in the early stages of production, leading to lower capacity utilization and increased costs [1] - The issuance of convertible bonds has resulted in higher financial expenses for the company [1] - Uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies exist, but overseas sales are gradually recovering, with the company leveraging its overseas production bases for flexible capacity allocation [1] - The completion of the first phase of the factory in Thailand has enabled production and supply capabilities, with plans to release capacity in stages based on business needs [1] - The company has received an average tax rate for countervailing duties, allowing it to set up factories in Thailand to circumvent tariff barriers and promote industrial upgrades [1] - Market demand is expected to increase with rising temperatures, and the company aims to enhance customer loyalty and core competitiveness through high-quality products and services [1] - Product innovation is being utilized to improve gross margins, while strict cost control and refined management are enhancing profitability [1] Group 2 - Kaifeng Investment is a macro-hedge fund management company that invests in global commodities, bonds, equity assets, and their derivatives [2] - The company is a member of the China Fund Industry Association and the China Futures Association, with qualifications approved by the China Securities Investment Fund Association [2] - Kaifeng Investment has received multiple awards for its performance and scale in managing various funds, ranking among the top in its category in China [2] - The investment philosophy of Kaifeng Investment emphasizes the importance of details in uncovering industrial insights and discovering value [2] - The company has a high-level research team of over 50 members focused on macro and industrial fundamental research, covering major trading varieties in domestic and international futures markets [2] - In 2016, Kaifeng Investment aimed to strengthen communication and cooperation with real enterprises, providing comprehensive solutions including industrial consulting and hedging services [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged dramatically, with international gold prices approaching $3500 per ounce after a significant increase from $2050 per ounce at the beginning of 2024, marking an over 70% rise in eighteen months, reminiscent of the 1970s gold bull market [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, predicting that gold will replace the US dollar as the "ultimate currency" by 2026 [3] - The market is experiencing a split, with gold ETFs growing to 160 billion yuan in six months, while physical gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 35.7% year-on-year, reaching a three-year low [3] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global central bank gold accumulation race [3] - Short-term catalysts for gold's rise include the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, renewed Middle Eastern conflicts, and the bursting of the tech bubble in US stock markets, positioning gold as a preferred asset for capital flight [3] - The dual nature of gold is highlighted, with retail investors seeking gold as a hedge against inflation while institutional investors use algorithms to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan coffee, particularly from Pu'er City, is gaining popularity in international markets, especially in Japan, highlighting its quality and potential for growth in the global coffee industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The coffee industry in Ning'er County has transformed from a local specialty to a significant economic driver, contributing to poverty alleviation and farmer income [2][3]. - Ning'er County has over 100,000 acres of coffee cultivation, significantly contributing to local economic development and farmer income [3]. - The region's favorable climate and geography provide ideal conditions for high-quality coffee production, making it a key area for China's coffee industry [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China's coffee market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic production unable to meet the rapidly growing demand, leading to increased reliance on imports [6][9]. - The domestic coffee consumption has seen a compound annual growth rate of 15% over the past five years, with the consumer base exceeding 300 million, predominantly among younger demographics [6][9]. - The current coffee bean production is estimated at 100,000 tons, fulfilling only one-third of domestic demand, necessitating significant imports to cover the shortfall [6][9]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Risk Management - The coffee industry faces significant price volatility, influenced by international market fluctuations, which poses risks to local farmers and producers [7][9]. - The lack of a price stabilization mechanism in China's coffee market exacerbates the impact of international price swings on local producers [9][10]. - There is a growing call for the introduction of coffee futures in China to help manage price risks and enhance the industry's pricing power [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Empowerment and Future Prospects - Financial tools, including futures and insurance, are essential for stabilizing the coffee industry and supporting its growth [12][13]. - Collaborative efforts among banks, insurance companies, and government entities are necessary to provide financial support and risk management solutions for coffee producers [12][13]. - The establishment of a coffee industry association and the promotion of high-quality coffee varieties are part of Ning'er County's strategic plans to enhance the coffee sector's development [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for short positions in CNY CFETS index and short SGDNEER basket, suggesting a bearish outlook on these currencies [3][4]. Core Insights - Asian economies show limited evidence of diversifying away from US assets, primarily due to low domestic yields and growth concerns [1][2]. - Malaysia, Singapore, China, and India exhibit signs of increased USD FX hedging and asset diversification, while Japan sees foreign inflows into its assets [1][2][28]. - The report highlights that Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest US asset holdings as a percentage of GDP, indicating significant room for diversification [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Diversification Potential - Singapore and Hong Kong lead in US asset holdings relative to GDP, followed by Taiwan, Japan, and Korea [5][6]. - China’s US asset holding is relatively low at 12% of GDP when accounting for indirect holdings [5][6]. Section 2: Willingness to Diversify - China is diversifying its reserves by increasing gold holdings, now at nearly 6% of total reserves, but has not sold US treasuries [11][13]. - Taiwan's central bank holds over 80% of its FX reserves in US treasuries, indicating confidence in these assets despite potential diversification [18][19]. - Korea's National Pension Service plans to increase international asset exposure to 60% by 2028, showing no intent to repatriate assets [25][26]. Section 3: Market Observations - Malaysia's government is guiding a shift towards domestic asset allocation, with EPF reducing overseas exposure [34][35]. - Singapore's large US asset holdings are supported by its status as a financial hub, with signs of month-end repatriation flows [38][39]. - India's central bank emphasizes gold accumulation for reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainties [47][48]. Section 4: Currency and Investment Trends - The report notes a shift in international investors' preferences from long-duration to short-duration US treasuries, contributing to a steepening of the UST curve [59][60]. - Malaysia's foreign currency deposit ratio has increased, indicating a trend towards domestic investments [55][57].

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. tariff war is an attempt to address the structural contradictions within the U.S. debt-dollar system, which is an evolution of the "Triffin Dilemma" [2][5] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff War Reasons - The tariff war is initiated to tackle the unsustainable fiscal situation caused by trade deficits, aiming to resolve the inherent contradictions of the U.S. debt-dollar system [2] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on various imports, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and a 30% tariff on goods valued under $800 [1] Tariff Calculation Issues - The U.S. tariff calculation method is flawed, using a formula that overestimates the necessary tariff rates by about double [3][4] - The formula's assumptions regarding price elasticity of demand and supply are inaccurate, leading to potential miscalculations in expected tariff impacts [3][4] Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariff increases are expected to raise domestic prices, with an average cost increase of $2,700 per household and a potential rise in core inflation by 1.7% to 2.1% [7] - The tariff war is likely to reduce bilateral trade and weaken the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as evidenced by rising U.S. debt yields and a declining dollar index [5][7] Recommendations for Response - The company suggests increasing macroeconomic countermeasures, including fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the impact of tariffs [9][10] - Emphasis on enhancing consumer income and building a robust domestic demand market is recommended to counteract the effects of the tariff war [10] - The company advocates for further innovation support to maintain a competitive edge in global supply chains, particularly in high-tech and emerging industries [11]

多年来，伦敦、巴黎和东京的投资者们拥有一个近乎完美的"印钞机"策略：购买美元并将收益投入标普500和纳斯达 克股票。美国股票回报率不仅远超本国市场，美元的持续升值更是让这些回报实现了双倍放大。 然而，这个曾经看似无敌的交易组合在特朗普发动全球贸易战后突然爆发危机。今年以来，标普500指数下跌6%， 但对于以欧元和日元计价回报的美股投资者而言，由于美元大跌（美元指数今年以来跌幅接近8%），他们的亏损膨 胀至惊人的14%。白宫政策的急剧转向和不可预测性，正令那些长期将美国视为终极避险天堂的投资者感到前所未 有的不安。 对冲成本与收益的残酷权衡 那些担心美元汇率下跌的交易者通常会在远期市场上卖出美元。对于瑞士法郎或日元的投资者来说，三个月的对冲 成本如果按年化计算，大约是4%；而对于欧元投资者，这个成本则会超过2%。 这种对冲策略虽然可以在美元下跌时弥补损失，但同时也会让他们失去因美元汇率上涨而可能获得的收益。此外， 持续的对冲成本还会逐渐侵蚀投资的回报率。 东京瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori形象地描述："对于那些在更高汇率时进场的管理者来说，美元兑日元每下跌一 点，都感觉像是在伤口上撒盐。" 期权是另一 ...

智通财经APP获悉，多年来，对于伦敦、巴黎和东京的投资者来说，买入美元、并将所得资金投入标普 500指数和纳斯达克指数一直是一种稳赚不赔的交易。美国股市的回报率不仅远高于英国、法国和日本 国内股市的回报率，而且美元的稳步升值也进一步放大了投资收益。 然而，当美国总统特朗普发起全球贸易战后，这一交易突然崩溃，投资者的痛苦迅速加剧。今年以来， 标普500指数下跌6%，而以欧元和日元计算回报的投资者损失却扩大到14%。交易瓦解的速度之快，加 上白宫反复无常的政策，让那些长期以来将美国视为"终极避险地"和"超额回报来源"的投资者感到极度 不安。巴黎Natixis Wealth Management首席投资官Benoit Peloille直言："这是双重打击。你同时在股票和 货币上蒙受损失。" 即使特朗普在关税政策上表现出了让步的姿态，但过去一个月的市场动荡也向许多外国投资者暴露了将 这么多资金投入美国资产的风险。他们中的许多人如今正急于在美国股票投资组合中增加外汇对冲。数 据显示，截至去年12月，这部分资产规模约为18万亿美元，占美国股市总市值的近五分之一。 摩根士丹利和美国银行均表示，近期越来越多的客户正在购买美元 ...

老铁们上午好，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，现在也是个专注中长线的投资者。最近黄金市场可真是热闹，一周之内涨涨跌跌像坐过山车，好多朋友 私信问我怎么看，今儿咱就来好好唠唠。 这一周的涨跌，更像是市场在给咱们做"压力测试"。涨的时候别觉得马上要飞天，跌的时候也别慌着割肉，中长线投资最需要的就是"拨开迷雾看本质"。我 自己看黄金，更关注两个核心点：一是美国实际利率的走向，这决定了黄金的中期估值；二是全球地缘政治和经济格局的重构，这决定了黄金的长期需求。 只要这俩逻辑没变，短期的颠簸不过是路上的小坑洼。 最后跟大伙儿交个底，我做了这么多年财经报道，见过太多市场情绪的起起落落，真正能赚到钱的，往往是那些在喧嚣中能冷静分析，在波动中能坚守逻辑 的人。黄金这周的"过山车"，与其说是风险，不如说是给咱们上的一堂"市场情绪课"——投资就像开车，盯着眼前几米的路容易慌，把目光放远到整个赛 道，才能心里有数。 好啦，今儿就聊到这儿。我是帮主郑重，咱们下次接着唠财经那些事儿，记得关注我，一起用中长线的眼光看市场。 首先啊，咱得明白黄金这玩意儿的脾气。它既是避险的硬通货，又是跟着美元走的"晴雨表"，最近这波动，说白了就是几股力量 ...

关注增量对冲政策，债市或维持震荡 2025 年 4 月 28 日 固定收益 点评报告 | | | | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话：010-66554013 邮箱：tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521070003 | 投资摘要： 事件：中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 点评： 存量政策落实注重优化经济结构，更多增量对冲政策可期。会议指出"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部 冲击影响加大"，对经济形势判断进一步明确。结合"不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形 势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面"的表述看，在前期存量政 策基础上，更多增量对冲政策将在中美关税谈判落地前后出台。当前存量政策注重加快落实，调优结构。生产端注重优化新 质生产力和帮扶困难企业，"培育壮大新质 ...