Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicates that the labor market remains generally stable, but shows signs of slight cooling. Concerns about interest rate cuts arise in the absence of inflation data, and the outlook on interest rates is not hawkish in the medium term [1] Group 1 - The labor market is described as overall stable, with slight cooling observed [1] - There is unease regarding interest rate cuts due to the lack of inflation data [1] - The medium-term outlook on interest rates is characterized as not hawkish [1]

Core Insights - The government shutdown has lasted 31 days, leading to a scarcity of economic data from official sources, but alternative data sources are providing insights into labor and inflation statistics [1][6] Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to an estimated 219,000, marking the lowest level in a month, indicating a relatively stable labor market [2] - Continuing claims rose by 11,000 to 1.96 million, the highest level since August, suggesting some underlying weakness in job retention [3] - Alternative data from regional Fed surveys indicates a pickup in job growth, while inflation remains elevated but has shown slight signs of decline [4][5] Economic Confidence - The alternative data, while not comprehensive, suggests that investors and policymakers can feel confident that there is no dramatic shift occurring in the economy [6] - The ongoing analysis of job and inflation data from various sources may provide a clearer picture of economic conditions, especially as the Beige Book report approaches [11][12] Future Data Releases - If the government reopens soon, there may be delays in the release of comprehensive economic data, particularly for October, due to the backlog caused by the shutdown [8][9] - The tracking of job and inflation data is expected to improve, potentially offering better insights into economic trends moving forward [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, and ending its quantitative tightening policy, with focus on future policy guidance [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a steady pace, but the government shutdown has affected data availability [2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly to 3% in September, while the core inflation rate decreased marginally to 3% [2] - The ADP report indicates an average of 14,250 new jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11, 2025, totaling approximately 57,000 jobs, significantly above the estimated breakeven point of 30,000 jobs per month [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Analysts expect a division within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut, while others may prefer to maintain current rates [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell is likely to frame any rate cuts as risk management measures, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on subsequent data performance [3] - If the ADP data shows a strong rebound, Powell may adopt a more cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, which could be interpreted as a hawkish surprise by the market [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the FOMC meeting on October 28-29, 2023, due to a slowing U.S. job market and moderate inflation impact from tariffs [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have intensified, with a 99.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91% probability for another cut in December, following lower-than-expected CPI data [2][3] - Analysts indicate that the Fed's statement will significantly influence market trends, with a dovish tone likely to weaken the dollar and benefit gold and global equities [1][8] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with broad employment indicators indicating a deceleration, although there are no widespread layoffs or spending cuts reported [3][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the labor market remains a critical concern for the Fed, as the official employment data is currently in a "data vacuum" period [2][4] - Analysts express differing views within the Fed regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts, reflecting varying assessments of economic risks [3][4] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Liquidity Concerns - There is speculation that the Fed may end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy soon, as liquidity pressures in the financial system are becoming evident [6][7] - Recent data shows a significant reduction in bank reserves, indicating that the current QT may be reaching a turning point [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision to halt QT could be a risk-minimizing choice in light of recent liquidity stress signals [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has already priced in the Fed's expected rate cuts, which is affecting the performance of various asset classes [8] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating between 98-99, facing downward pressure due to uncertainties related to tariffs and government shutdowns [8][9] - Analysts predict that gold and other precious metals will remain strong due to the anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors [9][10]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market experienced a significant decline last week, with spot gold closing down $138.26, a drop of 3.25%, ending at $4,112.65 [1] - Currently, gold is trading around $4,036, indicating continued downward pressure [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" by Scope Ratings due to deteriorating public finances and governance standards [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during its meeting on October 28-29 [9] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of inflation data next month due to a government shutdown, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] Group 3: International Relations and Conflicts - Pakistan's defense minister warned of "full-scale war" if no agreement is reached during talks with Afghanistan in Istanbul [14] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with Russia targeting Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure, leading to temporary power outages in Ukraine [16] - A joint statement from multiple Western nations, including Canada and the EU, emphasized support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [17]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and fully priced expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to profit-taking pressure after substantial prior gains [1][7][30] - The U.S. inflation data released by the Labor Department showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.0% for September, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and a core CPI increase of 3.0%, also lower than expected [1][8][30] - The report notes that the economic data vacuum due to the government shutdown may persist, affecting the release of future inflation data [1][7] Group 2 - In the global equity markets, the report indicates mixed performance, with the South Korean index showing the highest gain at +5.14%, followed by the Shenzhen Composite Index at +4.73% and the Hang Seng Index at +3.62% [2][34] - The report details that the energy sector in the U.S. stock market saw a rise of +2.90%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a decline of -0.59% [41] - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector also led gains at +5.26%, while the healthcare sector fell by -0.74% [41]

Core Viewpoint - Economic uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, leading to a rebound in gold prices after hitting a low, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4092 per ounce [1] Market Performance - As of 14:23, the China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.37%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.89%, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.58% [1] Economic Context - The U.S. White House has warned that due to the ongoing government shutdown, it may not release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history this data will not be published [1] - In the absence of this data, the interaction between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be the primary driver of gold price fluctuations [1] Investment Insights - According to Guangfa Fund Advisory, the recent pullback in gold prices is mainly due to easing concerns over geopolitical conflicts and some profit-taking by investors [1] - Despite the high volatility expected in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain asset allocation value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment ★★ [1] - Copper: Long-term holding ★★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound ★ [1] - Lead: Strong ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound ★ [1] - Aluminum: Strong ★★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish ★★ [1] Report's Core View - The long-term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Short-term fluctuations are affected by factors such as Sino-US relations and geopolitical situations [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with cautious chasing of highs. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and potential demand growth [1][7]. - Zinc is expected to have limited upside after the short-term macro - policy stimulus fades, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as inventory depletion and cost support [1][14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Sino-US relations eased, market risk aversion subsided, and gold and silver prices continued to adjust [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Sino-US negotiations achieved results, US data supported further interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and the French political crisis were complex, and gold is expected to have a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Short - term attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver stop falling. Domestic gold pays attention to the 930 support, and silver pays attention to the effectiveness of the 11000 support [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and the center of gravity continued to move up [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and downstream demand was affected by factors such as real estate and infrastructure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the super macro week, it is recommended to continue to hold copper long positions, be cautious about chasing highs, and use trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long term, copper is still optimistic [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc oscillated narrowly overnight, with insufficient upward momentum [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was loose, demand was weak, and overseas LME zinc inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc continued to rebound, but the overall demand was weak. In the medium - to - long term, it is still a short - side allocation in the sector [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - interest rate cut expectations continued. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina market was in an oversupply pattern [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply disturbances weakened, domestic pure nickel inventory increased significantly, and stainless steel market inventory increased, with weak downstream demand [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, encountered resistance and fell back after rising to 81,000, and the gains narrowed at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals improved significantly, with continuous inventory reduction for 10 weeks, strong terminal demand, and a positive feedback loop in the industry was expected to form [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of [78800 - 82000] [22].