美国 AI 泡沫风险可能与全球美元债务风险同步释放 20251217 摘要 美国通过债务扩张刺激总需求，尤其在全球需求不足时，依赖国债发行。 此模式虽推动科技发展和经济增长，但依赖持续的债务扩张能力。 美国利用全球化和技术垄断缓解国内劳资矛盾，大型科技公司在全球获 取利润，并通过政府转移支付缓解贫富分化，将成本转嫁至全球。 当前美国面临债务扩张能力不足的挑战，尤其在 AI 等新兴技术领域，缺 乏足够债务支持将影响供需循环。中国技术自主可控对美国技术垄断构 成冲击。 AI 发展前景高度依赖宏观经济环境和政府债务扩张能力。美国急于发展 AI，旨在通过新的财富分配缓解财政压力，但面临国际竞争和国内矛盾。 美国的债务扩张与其全球利润分配能力密切相关。拜登政府债务扩张速 度超过利润增长，导致债务问题显现，美元信用面临挑战，黄金价格上 涨反映市场担忧。 AI 技术通过降低劳动力回报、提高资本回报，帮助美国获取更多全球财 富分配，强化超额利润分配特征，可能加剧与其他发达国家的竞争。 若 AI 泡沫破灭，将暴露美国债务风险，引发美股崩盘，并可能引发对美 债的大规模抛售，加剧金融危机，同时可能促使中国市场风格切换和人 民币升值 ...

海外策略-2026 年港股&美股展望 20251217 摘要 发达市场在 2024-2025 年领涨，经济韧性强于新兴市场，预计 2026 年全球降息周期后半程，发达市场仍可能跑赢，美国、日本、韩国在半 导体周期中具吸引力。 美国经济虽消费边际走弱，但企业和地产投资有增量空间，小盘企业盈 利改善，预计美国经济可能从软着陆走向扩张，对美国经济持乐观态度。 中国经济物价是关键，预计明年中期 PPI 收窄，经济增长预期保持在 4.5%左右，政府政策指引将在明年下半年体现，对中国物价回升持中性 乐观态度。 中美科技发展形成共振，对全球科技产业产生深远影响。多数预测认为 美元将走弱，但因美国经济韧性较强且降息已被充分定价，美元不会大 幅走弱。 预计日本维持宽松货币政策，日元汇率大概率在 140-160 区间震荡。欧 洲经济预期不如美国，欧元未必一直走强，美元也不一定会大幅走弱。 港股 2025 年表现不错，但目前盘整，预计明年上半年美联储降息将提 升流动性，中美关系缓和及国内政策协同发力将支持港股上行。 美股 2026 年预计上涨 12%-13%，经济复苏和企业盈利增长是主要推 动因素，上半年关注科技板块，下半年看好顺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

Group 1 - If the AI hype continues to fade, the Chinese stock market may outperform the US stock market [1] - Concerns about US tech stocks have resurfaced, with the S&P 500 index down nearly 2% from its recent peak [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut interest rates next year than previously assumed [2] - The upcoming employment reports will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will resume easing policies, with a focus on the unemployment rate rather than overall non-farm payroll growth [2] - Goldman expects the easing cycle to extend into 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially dropping to 3% or lower [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the price increase of gold will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and ETFs [3] - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by stronger retail demand in China and increased central bank buying [3] - Silver is anticipated to underperform gold, with a peak shortage expected in 2025 due to declining solar equipment installations [3] Group 4 - A Bank of America survey indicates that 53% of investors believe the dollar is overvalued, up from 45% in November [4] - Investors are currently underweight in the dollar compared to historical levels, with short positions in the dollar considered the third most crowded trade [4] Group 5 - Concerns about the AI bubble have eased slightly but remain high, with 38% of investors identifying it as the biggest tail risk [5] - Private credit has emerged as a new risk factor, with 14% of fund managers considering it the largest tail risk for the coming year [5] Group 6 - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased due to strong export performance, but the governor is not expected to signal a hawkish stance [6] - November exports grew for the third consecutive month, indicating a recovery from previous economic contraction [6] Group 7 - The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce notes that softening US employment data may prompt the Fed to consider earlier rate cuts in 2026 [8] - The labor market's cooling is expected to weaken the Fed's resolve to maintain current rates, increasing the likelihood of policy easing [8] Group 8 - China International Capital Corporation remains optimistic about bank stocks' absolute and relative performance, highlighting their high dividend yields and quality development phase [9] - The focus is on dividend yield and certainty, which depend on valuation and profit growth [9] Group 9 - Tianfeng Securities anticipates a more pronounced credit front-loading trend in 2026, with a positive outlook for early-year loans [10] - The bank sector may face challenges from high-interest term deposits and stock market fluctuations impacting general deposits [10] Group 10 - Tianfeng Securities expects a non-symmetric principle for deposit rate cuts in 2026, with a higher probability of implementation in the second quarter [11] - The report suggests a potential need for a rate cut before the Spring Festival, with a range of 25-50 basis points [11] Group 11 - China Galaxy Securities indicates that leading real estate companies are demonstrating strong operational management capabilities, which may enhance their market share [12]

Group 1 - iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are expected to undergo significant design changes, moving away from the "Dynamic Island" pill-shaped cutout to a single punch-hole front camera in the upper left corner, along with under-display Face ID technology [3] - Xiaomi's self-developed MiMo series has been announced to be open-sourced, with a timeline provided by Lu Weibing [4] - ChatGPT has launched a new image model, available on the API side as GPT Image 1.5 [5] Group 2 - He Xiaopeng discussed the AI bubble, suggesting that humanoid robots will become a competitive area for major companies in the future [5] - The market regulator has indicated that requiring merchants to offer the lowest prices online may constitute monopolistic behavior [5] - Recent fiscal data shows that fiscal revenue continues to exhibit low growth trends [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced high volatility, dropping to approximately $4,272 before rebounding to $4,335, ultimately closing at $4,302, remaining relatively stable [1] - Currently, gold is slightly up, hovering around $4,320 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market Data - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level recorded since October 2021 [3] - The total number of unemployed individuals reached approximately 7.83 million, significantly higher than the 7.12 million reported in the same month last year [5] - In November, the non-farm sector added 64,000 jobs, while October saw a substantial decrease of 105,000 jobs [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the labor data release, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates twice in 2026, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January rising to 26.6% from 22% [6] - The labor data is described as "incomplete" due to a 43-day government shutdown, affecting the collection of household data [5] Group 4: U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 declining by 0.62% and 0.24% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.23% [2] - There are contrasting views on the stock market, with some analysts believing there is a significant bubble, while others argue that valuations are reasonable given the strong growth driven by AI [10] Group 5: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. military conducted strikes against three vessels suspected of drug trafficking, resulting in eight fatalities, part of a broader operation that has reportedly killed at least 95 individuals [11] - President Trump announced a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, labeling the current Venezuelan government as a "foreign terrorist organization" [11]

Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5%[5] - October's non-farm employment saw the largest decline in five years, with a drop of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to federal employees opting for "delayed resignation" programs[5] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones falling 302 points (0.62%) to 48,114, while the Nasdaq rose 0.23% to 23,111[8] - European markets declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.68% to 9,684 and the German DAX down 0.63% to 24,076[8] Commodity and Currency Trends - WTI crude oil prices fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since 2021, influenced by oversupply and geopolitical tensions[27] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.5%[26] Bond Market Insights - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 1-3 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.15% and the 30-year yield at 4.81%[30] - The bond market showed mixed signals, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.49%, down 1.5 basis points[30] Asian Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific stock markets mostly declined, with South Korea's KOSPI dropping 2.2% to 3,999 points, while Vietnam's index rose 2.0% to 1,679 points[21] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.54% to 25,235 points, with significant declines in technology and financial sectors[10]

即将过去的2025年，科技产业历经诸多变革，助推科技股成为贯穿全年的行情主线。年末之际，人工智能、芯片、新能源等科技主题的行情波动明显放 大。随着AI泡沫之争再起，新一年的科技投资脉络成为市场关注焦点。 迷雾之中，长城基金2026年度投资策略会如约而至。赵凤飞、尤国梁、梁福睿、龙宇飞、韩林、刘疆等多位深耕"科技+"领域的基金经理，聚焦科技投资 领域的热门问题展开深度探讨。 以下为本次策略会中长城基金"科技+"基金经理分享的部分精彩观点： 赵凤飞：2026年的市场风格将更加均衡：一是算力板块内海外与国产算力趋向均衡，二是AI领域内算力与应用趋向均衡，三是科技板块内AI与商业航 天、量子计算等非AI赛道趋向均衡。 尤国梁：前不久的可回收火箭发射相当于商业航天产业的"成人礼"，直接为卫星互联网、太空算力、6G等未来赛道铺好了运力底座，一个全新的万亿级 市场正在被打开。 梁福睿：面对国内集采、海外药价管控带来的全球医药通缩压力，只有具备全球化能力、能迭代现有治疗方式的创新药与器械企业，才能突破发展瓶颈。 龙宇飞：医药行业核心竞争力标准持续演进：十几年前比拼商业化能力，5-10年前转向产品研发与产品力，如今则要求研发与 ...

| 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,824.81 | -1.11% | | 深圳成指 | 12,914.67 | -1.51% | | 沪深 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20% | | 上证 50 | 2,954.79 | -1.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,001.32 | -1.58% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 49,383.29 | -1.56% | | 道琼指数 | 48,114.26 | -0.62% | | 标普 500 | 6,800.26 | -0.24% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,111.46 | 0.23% | | 美元指数 | 98.2199 | -0.06% | | 人民币 | 7.0425 | -0.11% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,332.20 | -0.05% | | WTI 原油 | 55.27 | -2.73% | | LME 铜 | 11,619.00 | -0.57% | | LME 铝 | 2,882.50 | 0.26% | ...

来源：期货日报 早上好！ 据新华社报道，美国劳工部16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来 有记录的最高水平。 当月，美国失业人数总计约为783万，显著高于去年同期的712万。其中，失业时间短于5周的人数为250 万，比9月增加31.6万；长期失业人数为190万，占总失业人数的24.3%。 消息面上，据央视报道，当地时间12月16日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国联邦储备委员会 前理事凯文·沃什以及白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特都具备领导美联储的资质。 贝森特在接受采访时称，他预计美国将于明年1月初任命新的美联储主席，以接替现任领导层。 鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期。根据相关法律规定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获参议院批 准。 之前，美国总统特朗普当地时间12日曾表示，凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，凯文· 哈西特也很出色。 另据最新消息，特朗普将于当地时间周三面试另一位美联储主席候选人——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃 勒。在所有被考虑的美联储主席人选中，沃勒在《华尔街日报》10月对经济学家的调查中被评为首选， 华尔街普遍对沃勒评价较高。 市场方 ...