Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [2][22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined. In the Shahe area, the initial weekly shipment was average, with small - plate prices mostly lowered. Subsequently, the mid - and downstream made appropriate purchases, and the overall shipment improved slightly, with small - plate prices rising and some large - plate market prices also increasing slightly. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was lackluster, with the transaction center moving downward and different shipment situations among manufacturers. In the East China market, the negotiation center declined, demand follow - up was weak, the willingness of mid - and downstream to replenish inventory was low, and local enterprise prices continued to fall due to the inflow of low - priced external goods [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of June 19, the national float glass output was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. As of June 19, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased. Enterprises maintaining orders have seen a significant compression of profit feedback due to low - price competition, and the phenomenon of workers taking turns off has increased in some areas, with the tempering start - up rate declining. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry improved. In May, the automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles [14] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of June 19, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. In the North China region, the initial weekly shipment was average and then improved slightly. Mid - and downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases according to their own situations, with different situations among enterprises. The average production - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous week, and the inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the overall shipment of the float glass market improved slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory decreased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of June 20, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 896,394, an increase of 12,633; the short positions were 1,144,221, an increase of 47,890. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [22]

这两年，黄金总是重复以两种方式登上热搜：大涨与大跌。 进入6月，黄金登上热搜的趋向更加明显——大跌。在反复震荡的金价中，不少靠黄金避险属性获利的投资者，纷纷感叹"避险"变"风险"。他们一边期待 着金价的回温，一边也忍不住将视线投向其他投资品。 白银、黄金则在此时拉开了领涨的序幕。 6月23日，截至成稿，Wind数据显示，伦敦现货白银价格达到36.11美元/盎司，现货铂金涨超2%，报价1291.4美元/盎司。 这并非银价和铂金首次崭露头角。 5月下旬以来，白银、铂金等贵金属开始活跃。白银突破关键的36美元/盎司关口，刷新13年来的最高纪录，年内累计最大涨幅接近25%。铂金年内的累计 涨幅已超过36%，高于黄金的年内涨幅。 （网友评论/图） （社交平台网友分享/图） 另一方面，关于铂金、白银是否能成为"黄金平替"，不少投资者仍然表示不看好。 120万元购入铂金增值超7万元 一方面，已有胆大的投资者看准时机，一头扎入贵金属投资中。 据经济观察报报道，在4月初，在铂金价格230元/克左右，就有投资者买入了价值约120万元的铂金板料和铂金条（1000克铂金板料2块，克价233.7元； 100克铂金条30块，克价238. ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - **Overseas Supply**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.25% [1] - Coking coal production is declining due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a slight increase in spot auction prices and a decrease in terminal inventory [1] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements remains ample, and despite the seasonal downturn in downstream iron and steel production, there is a certain level of optimism in the market [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for coking coal is easing, and geopolitical conflicts are providing support for energy commodities, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the short term [2] - However, downstream enterprises lack confidence in future demand, and the current rebound has not significantly improved spot market sentiment, with ongoing pressure from high upstream inventory levels [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while domestic coking coal prices have slightly rebounded, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, and geopolitical disturbances may lead to short-term price fluctuations, but mid-term trends are expected to remain within a range [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

需求转弱 镍价下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 需求端 宏观方面，关税前景多变，地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，美元上涨。 6月逐步进入传统淡季，市场按需逢低采购，成交略有好转；不锈钢降价减产或将导致NPI减产；电动车去库影响三 元电池订单，拖累硫酸镍减产。 供应端 供应端 头部钢厂仍在国内生产，减产多为印尼和国内中小型钢厂，200系为主。 国内镍铁厂倒挂明显，维持低开工率。印尼低成本镍铁产量增加，利多矿价。 300系不锈钢累库压力较大，代理出货情况不理想。 精炼镍6月产量预计环比小幅下降，匹配需求淡季。净进口因进口亏损收窄有所上升。 镍矿价格坚挺，但下游接受度下降，上下游博弈，后市关注NPI减产情况，预计镍矿三季度见顶。 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 地缘冲突升级，市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动，符合市场预期。精炼镍6月需求放缓，三元电池产量环比负增 长，中印不锈钢均有减产计划，合金电镀也进入淡季， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].