从供应端来看，活体库存开始由 "累库" 转向 "去 库" 过程，不过生猪出栏均重整体仍处于高位，且未观 察到屠宰量大幅放量迹象，论供应压力处于边际增加趋 势。所以，供应端面临 "理论供应压力增加" 叠加 "活 体库存偏高" 的双利空状态。 需求端方面，随着天气转热，有季节性走弱预期。虽 然端午前后需求或有所增加，但从当前市场情况来看，增 幅有限。整体而言，预计现货价格偏弱调整概率较高。 近月偏弱，远月有支撑 摘 要： 供需关系： 操作上建议：近月合约受现货价格影响，偏空操作思 路为主；远月合约可关注逢低布局多单机会。月间价差方 面，继续关注 LH2509 - LH2601 合约反套策略。投资者 需密切关注养殖端出栏节奏、需求端变化、政策导向以及 疫病等因素对市场的影响。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 6 月 3 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 工业硅 | 氧化铝 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 纯碱 | 棉纱 | 短纤 | | | | 多晶硅 | 棉花 | PTA | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | 玻璃 | 尿素 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 生猪 | 烧碱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 沥青 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 焦煤 | 螺纹钢 | 十债 | | | | 焦炭 | 苹果 | 二债 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期海外矿价弱势下行，相应的矿石基本面在走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，铁矿石需求持续回落，且钢 市淡季来临，需求料将偏弱运行。相反，港口到货低位回升，而海外矿商发运维持高位，叠加财年末 冲量预期，海外矿石供应延续积极，即便内矿生产临检引发产量下降，供应压力依然偏大。总之，供 增需弱局面铁矿石基本面持续弱，矿价承压运行，相对利好则是期价贴水较大，下行阻力存在，多空 因素博弈下矿价延续震荡偏弱运行，关注成材表现情况。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - Carbon black is a crucial raw material widely used in rubber products, plastics, coatings, inks, and other chemical products, with N339 carbon black being a common type that significantly influences market pricing through its supply and demand dynamics [2] - The primary component of carbon black is carbon, which has a high specific surface area and adsorption properties, enhancing the strength, toughness, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance of rubber products [2] - N339 carbon black is extensively applied in tires, rubber hoses, leather, coatings, and plastics, making its supply and demand critical to the overall carbon black market pricing [2] Group 2 - The supply-demand relationship is a key factor affecting N339 carbon black pricing, with production relying on carbon sources like coal, where rising coal prices can lead to increased raw material costs and negatively impact supply [3] - Demand for N339 carbon black is closely linked to the rubber, plastics, and coatings industries, which are influenced by the economic cycle; demand typically increases during economic growth and decreases during downturns, affecting market supply and pricing [3] - Other factors influencing N339 carbon black pricing include fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly coal, and environmental policies that may require manufacturers to adopt more eco-friendly production methods, potentially increasing production costs [4]

钼价月上涨+10%，有何机会？20250602 摘要 2024 年钼精矿均价同比下降 7%，但 2025 年因供应增速放缓价格仍处 高位。东北大型矿山预计三季度末或四季度明显放量，但钢厂淡季减产 及冶炼成本倒挂或抑制价格上涨。 2024 年国内钼精矿产量增速放缓，内蒙古矿山因天气减产加剧供应紧 张。钢铁行业钼铁需求稳定增长，月均招标量同比增长显著，受益于军 工产业对高端钢材的需求。 钼价定价模式包括全产业链自给自足、长单定价和招标定价，其中招标 定价对市场价格影响显著。钢厂招标情况是影响市场的重要因素。 全球钼资源储量约为 1,500 万吨，中国占比最大（39%），其次是美国 （23%）。国内钼资源主要集中在河南、吉林、内蒙古、黑龙江和陕西。 2024 年全球钼产量同比增长 4.6%，预计 2025 年国际市场供应增减互 现。国内 2024 年钼精矿总产量约 30.6 万金属吨，预计 2027 年新增项 目投产或致供应过剩。 钢铁行业是钼的主要应用领域，占比约 80%，特钢需求增长驱动钼消费。 预计 2025 年和 2026 年全球钼金属需求分别为 34.3 万吨和 36.1 万吨， 供需偏紧格局或将持续。 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...

在激烈市场博弈与竞争中，由于供需关系转换带来的 "周期熊" 还在持续深刻影响全球锂矿江 湖。 最新数据显示，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2507已经连续三天 （5月26日、27日、28日） 盘中跌破6 万元/吨关口，最低下探至5.95万元/吨，尽管随后小幅回升，报收6.04万元/吨，仍较2024年年末 下跌了22.23%。 在新能源强势崛起的背景下，作为国家级战略资源，锂价的每一轮剧烈波动，都会引发一轮市场 关注与争议风暴。回顾过去十年锂价的演进历程，期间历经多轮 "牛熊" 周期的洗礼，每一轮周 期变化都对产业格局产生了深远影响。 众所周知，2023年以来锂产业供需结构已经发生了根本性转变，具体而言，资金大举进入上游加 速产能释放的情况下，下游的需求却并未同步快速增长，导致整个锂电产业链都陷入产能过剩状 态，进而行业内卷加剧，新能源行业面临残酷洗牌，所以近乎一致的预期导致市场对锂价的下跌 毫无抵抗力。 尤其2024年是全球锂资源集中投产的重要一年，随着前期各国在锂资源开发和建设方面的布局逐 步完善，各主要矿区的新项目陆续投产并释放产能。然而，受锂价持续下跌的影响，从年中开 始，不少项目相继传出停产检修的消息，行业过 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...