行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Paper pulp: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Sugar: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Apple: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Timber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - 20 - rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, presenting their current market situations, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities while also highlighting some potential trading points and market factors to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is intensively listed and demand is average, pressuring prices, but the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons and an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to the four - year average. The cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with spinning mills having few new orders, reduced operation rates, and weaving mills mainly making rigid purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and had better transactions. The USDA November report was bearish, with the US cotton production in the 25/26 season significantly increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and the sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting the sugar - making season, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly operating. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there was still pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's estimated production. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, there were sporadic transactions of apples in cold storage, mainly medium and small fruits, and the price slightly increased. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of traders and fruit farmers to hold back sales is high, which may affect the inventory - clearing speed. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - clearing situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price slightly decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price slightly increased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price increased. Globally, the natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to slowly rise. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, the spot inventory is increasing, the cost support is stable, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR&BR [6] Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to decline. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a cumulative increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The domestic port inventory is continuously increasing, the supply is still in a relatively loose situation, the pulp demand continues to be weak, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. After the basis widened and then significantly narrowed, the price continuously declined due to the generally weak fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to increase. The domestic spot price remained weak, and traders' import willingness decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. Traders' pressure has increased, and it is expected that imports will not significantly increase in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The original inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory supports the price to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Bullish (One Star) - Propylene, Polyolefin, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 1.2 Bearish (Three Stars) - Ethylene Glycol [1] 1.3 Neutral (White Stars) - Styrene, PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Glass, Soda Ash [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures of various chemical products show different trends. Some are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and international oil prices, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Different product sectors have different influencing factors, including upstream raw material prices, downstream demand changes, and overseas supply uncertainties [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely around the 5 - day moving average. Low enterprise inventory supports prices, but downstream cost pressure and low international oil prices may drag down sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures have narrow - range fluctuations. For polyethylene, cost support weakens, supply pressure is high, and demand is limited, so prices will be weak. For polypropylene, inventory is transferred to the middle - link, but downstream demand is poor, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [2] 3.2 Polyester - Falling oil prices but firm PX support PTA prices. PTA has increased device maintenance due to poor efficiency, and terminal demand is weakening. For ethylene glycol, supply pressure is high, and the market is expected to be bearish. Short fiber has no new investment pressure but demand is expected to weaken, and bottle chip demand is declining with over - capacity as a long - term issue [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The narrowing of the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread makes the market focus on Asian aromatic hydrocarbon outflows. Pure benzene prices rebound strongly, but the sustainability of exports to the US is to be observed. Styrene futures rise, with cost support from pure benzene and supply reduction and increased export demand [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are in low - level oscillations. Overseas device operation is high, and demand is expected to be weak. Urea futures fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand is picking up, and supply remains high [6] 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to decline due to weakened cost support. Although exports to India may improve, the overall demand boost is limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend, with cost support insufficient and downstream demand weak [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to decline as the cost side moves down. The industry inventory decreases, and the supply - demand pattern is in surplus in the long - term. Glass also declines, with high intermediate - link inventory. Although cost support exists at the current price, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

2025年11月20日，国内主力合约涨跌互现。LU燃油、跌超3%，工业硅、玻璃、纸浆、纯碱、棕榈油、 多晶硅、乙二醇跌超2%。涨幅方面，纯苯涨超2%，苯乙烯、鸡蛋、苹果涨超1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com | 序号 | 合约名称 | 開新 | 测手 | 采价 | 卖价 | 法幅%1 | 武昌 | 原标 | 成交量 | 液肤 | 持包量 | 日相仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 纯年2603 M | 5596 | 11 | 2593 | 5596 | 2.04% | 2 | 6 | 22838 | 112 | 22523 | 1602 | | 2 | 33 2601 M | 3238 | 1 | 3237 | 3738 | 1.95% | 1 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/20 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MFA responds to China's suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. Fu ...

【国富期货早间看点】USDA民间出口商报告向中国出口销售33万 吨大豆 Anec预计11月巴西大豆出口471万吨 20251120 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月20日 07:51 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4184.00 | 0. 38 | -0.99 | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 63.66 | -1.79 | 0. 87 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59. 41 | -1.92 | 0. 88 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1135. 25 | -1. 33 | -0.46 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 320. 80 | -2. 22 | -1. 32 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 45 | -1.94 | -0.54 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 18 | 0. 60 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure still exists, with limited upward driving force, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Core Viewpoints - The spot market for propylene has warmed up, but the futures market has continued to weaken. The basis has strengthened significantly due to the continued decline in coal prices and the expectation of weakening cost support on the futures market, while the expectation of loose supply and demand for propylene remains unchanged [2] - On the supply side, the overall supply pattern of propylene remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still relatively high. On the demand side, the demand support has increased, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded slightly. The cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [27][28][32] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - It covers the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [34][35][37] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [60][61]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 晚富士多产区以质论价，红枣新货接受度一般 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9375元/吨，较前一日变动-58元/吨，幅度-0.61%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1875，较前一日变动+58；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1075，较前一日变动+58。 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易表现稳定。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].