| | | | | | | 玻璃纯碱日度数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2026/1/7 | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | 2025/12/30 2026/1/5 | | | 2026/1/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/12/30 2026/1/5 | | 2026/1/6 | 周度变化 | 日度变化 | | 沙河5mm 大板低价 | 950.0 | 946.0 | 946.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 沙河重碱 1150.0 | | 1140.0 | 1150.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | | 湖 北 大板低价 | 970.0 | 970.0 | 970.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1213.0 | 1177.0 | 1190.0 | -23.0 | 13.0 | | FG05合 约 | 1087.0 | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant increases in futures contracts for coking coal and coke, with coking coal rising by 5.33% and coke by 3.38% on January 6 [1]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 0 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：1月6日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨1.38%，基差走强至-46元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5080元/吨，较前一交易日上涨50元/吨。成本端布伦特原油持稳在61.5美元/桶左右；PTA产能利用 率较上一工作日持平至77.41%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.65天，环比增加0.04天。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA供应端有增量预期，下游聚酯负荷也从高位下调，供需格局相较之前转向宽松；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，终 端需求或将转弱。对上游PX的市场一致看法供需偏紧，预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：1月6日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨1.91%，基差走强至-11 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 6 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，冲高回落。受期货市场情绪带动，上游工厂收单形势 好，多半工厂上调报价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围 多在 1680-1710 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，停产企业陆续复 产，气头工厂受冬季限气的影响较小，日产呈现出同比去年偏高的现象，且目 前的产量高于去年大部分时期，供应充裕下价格延续承压。农业需求处于淡 季，下一季的集中农需大约为农历年前后的小麦返青追肥。工业需求端大多收 到环保预警的限制，开工多有下滑，复合肥工厂主产区开工负荷承压，目前整 体开工位于历年同期低位，但临近年底假期，开工负荷难有大幅回升，采购趋 于谨慎，三聚氰胺工厂后续复产有所增加，但支撑不足。而冬储需求叠加出口 持续放量，而上游装置多发检修，尿素厂内库存连续去化，支撑盘面价格上 移，后续随着工厂装置的复产，去化幅度将进一步收窄。1 月 2 日 NFL 尿素进 口招标结果分析:东海岸最低报价 CFR426.8 美元/吨，西海岸最低报价 424.8(424.9)美元/吨，最低报价均来自 Koch。国际地缘冲突下，国际尿素供 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is tightening due to restrictions on near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the current shutdown of oil mills. Import soybean clearance policies also affect near - month supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and a relatively loose supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed restrain prices. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices and keeps the basis at a high level. Import soybean clearance policies affect near - month supply, while the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The market is affected by the strengthening of soybean oil [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9,130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 611.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,448 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 52 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 220,345 lots, up 15,404 lots; rapeseed meal is 662,451 lots, up 17,751 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal is - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,018.75 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,456.26 yuan/ton, up 97.53 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 770 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 50 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 1,330 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 660 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; domestic rapeseed production annual forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 626 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - Oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.06%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.39%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 13.87%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 11.59%, down 0.08% [2]. - For rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.68%, up 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.69%, up 0.06%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.15%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.78% [2]. Industry News - On January 5 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures rose more than 1%, but remained in a narrow range since before Christmas. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.90 Canadian dollars or 1.14% to 610.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations. Also, pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed [2].

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 难以形成需求支撑。成本方面，市场认为委内瑞拉原油产量恢复需要时间，昨日国际油价震荡上涨。短期L 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 塑料产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6329 | 89 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6618 | 122 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 457863 | 60422 持仓量(日,手) | 507885 | -1038 | | | 1-5价差 | -250 | -41 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 432078 | 8010 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260106 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.530 | 5, 532 | -2 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.544 | - | - | | | | 成交量(手) | 223. 450 | 258. 678 | -35. 228 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 213, 721 | 206. 636 | +7.085 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 115,576 | 104. 487 | +11.089 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23,560 | -23, 481 | -79 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 70 | ୧୫ | +2 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -830 | -832 | +2 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP05 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 氧化铝现货价格继续下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化850元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23080元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-450元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23250元/吨，较上一交易日变化870元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-280 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-05日沪铝主力合约开于23085元/吨，收于23645元/吨，较上一交易日变化905元/吨，最 高价达23780元/吨，最低价达到23065元/吨。全天交易日成交335721手，全天交易日持仓261132手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-05，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存68.4万吨，较上一期变化1.5万吨，仓单库存82796 吨，较上一交易日变化1127吨，LME铝库存506750吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-05SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2665元/吨，山东价格录得2610元/吨，河南价格录得 269 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price was driven by funds and sentiment, with the main contract 2605 opening at 125,000 yuan/ton and closing at 129,980 yuan/ton, a 7.74% change from the previous settlement price. The price increase was due to new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors, although it didn't break through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow down, and the market showed a divergence between futures and spot prices. The current futures price is mainly dominated by funds and sentiment, with over - speculation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 125,000 yuan/ton and closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, up 7.74% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 343,623 lots, and the open interest increased from 490,194 lots to 515,292 lots. The basis was - 4,360 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,281 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 - 119,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,568 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Driving Factors**: The price increase was driven by new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification [1]. Inventory and Production - **Inventory**: The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, and other inventories increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons. The de - stocking speed continued to slow down [2]. - **Production**: The weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: None [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4] - **Futures - spot**: None [4]

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-06 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报2427元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.2%，报2891 元/吨。 元旦假期期间委内瑞拉局势升级，但对原油市场直接影响有限，油价维持弱势震荡态势，对FU、LU单边价格形成 压制。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体驱动有限。其中，高硫燃料油裂解价差与贴水下跌后， 带动炼厂端需求边际改善，中国高硫燃料油进口量近期有所回升。如果委油断供问题持续，可能会导致国内地炼 增加燃料油采购需求。不过目前来看，高硫燃料油货源依然较为充裕，市场暂无紧缺预期。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期。但 汽柴油溢价会通过RFCC装置对低硫油组分进行分流，市场压力暂有限。 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油端弱势延续，关注炼厂端需求潜在增量 市场分析 策略 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、 ...