Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment ratings: Not provided - Core view: The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and relevant news events [4][7][12] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased positions by 5,047 lots to 556,300 lots [2] - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper rebounded to 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Guangdong inventory increased for 5 consecutive days, and the consumption was poor, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The North China spot market remained sluggish, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - Freeport McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for global copper ore sales to protect smelter profitability due to the historically low benchmark TC/RC fees in 2025 [3] Logic Analysis - Macro: The US employment market cooled, and Powell hinted at a possible rate cut and an end to balance - sheet reduction. Fundamentals: Multiple mines reduced production, and the supply of copper mines tightened. The consumption was weak, but the purchase demand might increase after price corrections [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a "buy on dips" strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold inter - market positive spreads and arrange inter - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 2,797 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [9] Relevant Information - Some aluminum plants made procurement, and the production of some alumina enterprises was affected by factors such as ore shortage and strikes [10][11] Logic Analysis - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream stockpiling, but the surplus trend remained. The price was expected to be volatile and weak before the supply - demand pattern improved [12] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15][16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 20 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and Powell's speech on the economy and monetary policy, and the export and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum [18] Trading Logic - The impact of the US tariff policy upgrade on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The medium - term upward trend of aluminum prices remained unchanged, and the consumption showed resilience [19] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not change the medium - term upward trend. Wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions were mostly stable [21] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and the inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy ingots [21] Trading Logic - The impact of the tariff policy upgrade on aluminum - based products was expected to be less severe. The global aluminum supply - demand remained in a shortage pattern after re - balancing, and the fundamentals provided some support [23] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not affect the medium - term upward trend. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [24] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 1.17% to 22,015 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by 675 lots to 210,700 lots. - Spot: The trading volume did not improve significantly [26] Relevant Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of refined zinc [28] Logic Analysis - The supply in China increased significantly, while the consumption did not improve. The price of LME zinc was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [28] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may fluctuate more violently. Short positions can be arranged at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27][31] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 0.15% to 17,110 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 886 lots to 84,500 lots. - Spot: The downstream demand was for rigid replenishment, and the trading was average [30] Relevant Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of lead [31] Logic Analysis - The current supply - demand of lead was weak, but the supply was weaker. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, but there was a risk of a decline in the future [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may decline from high levels. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 increased by 100 to 121,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 5,896 lots. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36] Relevant Information - A fire occurred in an Indonesian nickel processing plant, and the Indonesian nickel - iron market was under pressure [37] Logic Analysis - The fire had no impact on production. The supply - demand of refined nickel was basically flat, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The nickel price was under pressure [37] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [38][39][41] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 30 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 174 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [43] Important Information - Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on stainless steel cold - rolled products from Vietnam [44] Logic Analysis - The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the demand was restricted. The price was under pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [44] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45][46] Group 10: Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, decreased by 430 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and the position increased by 632 lots to 65,742 lots. - Spot: The spot price decreased, and the trading was average [48] Relevant Information - The global semiconductor sales increased, and the production of domestic tin smelters changed [49][50] Logic Analysis - The Fed hinted at a rate cut, the supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption [52] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production. - Options: Wait and see [53][54] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Important Information - A South Korean company will acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [55] Logic Analysis - The production of industrial silicon was affected by power plant maintenance and factory shutdowns. The demand was strong in the short term, but there might be a slight surplus in November. The price was expected to be range - bound [57] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Avoid long positions. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [58][59][60] Group 12: Polysilicon Important Information - The magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing market expectations and introducing favorable policies [62] Logic Analysis - The production of polysilicon increased in October, but the demand weakened. The price was expected to break through new highs in the medium - to - long term, and long positions could be held in the short term [63] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Hold long positions. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3500, - 3300). - Options: Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, stop - profit and exit the put option, and continue to hold the call option [64][65][66] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 220 to 72,940 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,780 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2,104 to 33,076 tons. - Spot: The spot prices remained unchanged [69] Important Information - Tesla's factory increased production, and China's new - energy vehicle sales increased [70] Logic Analysis - The supply of lithium carbonate was uncertain, and the demand was strong. The price was expected to be strong and volatile in the current range [71] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Treat the price as strong and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [72]

Group 1 - The domestic zinc market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for Shanghai zinc futures opening at 22,020.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 22,070.00 CNY and a low of 21,915.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.17% [1] - According to Zhengxin Futures, there is a tendency for oversupply in the zinc market due to stable demand and increasing supply, although the realization of this oversupply depends on the transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which will take time for internal adjustments [1] - Five Minerals Futures noted that domestic zinc smelting enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, while most downstream zinc enterprises also operated normally, with some zinc alloy companies taking longer breaks [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the domestic demand peak season is not strong, advising cautious holding of previous short positions and recommending selling hedges to lock in profits, with a medium to long-term bearish outlook on zinc due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [2] - The focus for Shanghai zinc is on the range of 21,800 to 22,400 CNY/ton, while for London zinc, the range is set at 2,900 to 3,000 USD/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 17 contracts rising and 61 contracts falling today, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2][5]. Key Contract Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+7.36%), Shanghai gold at 2512 (+2.70%), and Shanghai silver at 2512 (+2.64%), driven significantly by supply and demand factors [6]. - The largest declines were seen in canola at 2511 (-5.32%), glass at 2601 (-3.40%), and methanol at 2601 (-2.61%), likely influenced by increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 500 at 2512 (1.478 billion), 30-year treasury bonds at 2512 (588 million), and 10-year treasury bonds at 2512 (454 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [9]. - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from Shanghai gold at 2512 (-2.266 billion), Shanghai copper at 2511 (-1.347 billion), and Shanghai silver at 2512 (-1.347 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds from these assets [9]. Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in peanut at 2601 (+29.12%), cotton yarn at 2601 (+20.39%), and short fiber at 2512 (+19.91%), indicating a high level of trading activity and potential new capital entering these markets [10]. - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in corn at 2511 (-13.17%), eggs at 2511 (-13.97%), and silicon iron at 2511 (-23.55%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [10]. Key Events and Impacts - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet domestic biodiesel demand, which may lead to a reduction in global edible oil supply as exports decrease [11]. - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a price increase of over 80% compared to gold's 57%, driven by investor demand and industrial usage [12][13]. - Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil have increased, with total iron ore stock at Chinese ports rising by 171.18 million tons, indicating a trend of increased supply [14]. Industry Insights - A new regulatory document on solar photovoltaic capacity control is expected to be released soon, aiming to balance supply and demand in the industry [15]. - The U.S. may lose 16 million tons of soybean orders if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, highlighting the impact of trade dynamics on agricultural exports [16]. - Indonesia's Freeport may suspend operations at the Manyar smelter due to a shortage of copper concentrate, affecting supply chains in the copper market [16]. Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include China's September CPI and global metal market supply-demand conditions, which are expected to influence market expectations and trading strategies [19][24].

华宝期货 2025.10.13 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONOMO: 010 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3103 | 3072 | 31 | 1.01% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 3285 | 3253 | 32 | 0.98% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3330 | 10 | 0.30% | | 铁矿石 | 12601 | 795 | 780.5 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [2] - Silver: Buy on dips [2] - Copper: High-level pullback [2] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [2] - Tin: Rise and then fall [2] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [2] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [2] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [2] - Polysilicon: Pullback [2] - Lithium carbonate: Wide-range oscillation, buy on dips [2] Core Views - The unexpected cooling of G2 relations, the chaotic situation in Japan, and potential obstacles to the ceasefire in the Middle East have led to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold can be bought both in the short and long term, and its strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver has short - term fluctuations but long - term upward potential. Copper has short - term pullback pressure but its long - term trend remains intact. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term. Other metals also have their own short - and long - term trends and investment suggestions based on various factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Changes in Sino - US relations and the chaotic situation in Japan have led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, making the prices of gold and silver firm [3] Basic Logic - Trump's tariff threat and China's response, along with the political changes in Japan, have increased market uncertainty. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - For gold, the support at 900 is obvious, and a long - position approach can be adopted both in the short and long term. For silver, pay attention to the 10800 support level, and it may be a more prudent strategy to buy on dips. Long - term positions can be held continuously [5] Copper Market Review - Trump's tariff threat has led to a sharp decline in the prices of Shanghai copper and London copper, with prices falling from high levels [7] Industry Logic - Supply concerns have deepened due to the accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and the slowdown in supply from Chile. The output of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe has reached a record high. Demand from the new energy and high - tech industries remains resilient, but downstream demand is affected by high prices [7] Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, copper prices are under pullback pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long term, copper is still promising as a strategic resource and an alternative to precious metals. The recommended trading ranges are [79,000, 84,000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9900, 10500] US dollars/ton for London copper [8] Zinc Market Review - Zinc prices have fallen under pressure, and London zinc has broken through the 3000 - dollar mark [10] Industry Logic - The domestic and overseas zinc markets show different trends. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the output of zinc ingots is expected to increase. However, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and export may relieve the shortage of overseas zinc inventory [10] Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, Shanghai zinc is under pressure to fall. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. The recommended trading ranges are [21,800, 22,400] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and the price of alumina continues to be weak [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has increased, but downstream demand has shown some improvement. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume, and the market is in an oversupply situation [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short term for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices are under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices are falling [17] Industry Logic - There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and domestic pure - nickel inventory has increased significantly. The inventory of stainless steel has also increased, and the traditional consumption peak season is yet to be verified [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has risen and then fallen, with the late - session gains narrowing [21] Industry Logic - The government has put forward requirements for battery capacity, and the export of lithium batteries is regulated. The weekly output of lithium carbonate has reached a new high this year, and the arrival volume of overseas lithium ore is expected to increase. The production of lithium batteries and cathode materials has remained stable, which will support the price of lithium carbonate [22] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [23]

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Polyester Monthly Report - Ethylene Glycol Inventory Accumulation Gradually Realized, PX Continuously Suppressed by Downstream [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Views - PX: Last month, the overall industry contradiction was not obvious. PTA's processing fee was continuously restricted under weak expectations. High maintenance volume and weak terminal expectations led to the difficulty of PXN expansion, and it followed the weak oscillation of crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many short - term unexpected maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected postponement of PTA new device production and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. PXN is under pressure, but the valuation is currently at a neutral - low level, and the downward space is also limited. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last month, its own processing fee improved under continuous large - scale maintenance. However, due to the suppression of PXN by its maintenance and the still pessimistic expectation of the terminal, it mainly followed the downward oscillation of crude oil. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. But due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, while the terminal shows signs of weakness. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance, and PTA is continuously suppressed by unexpected maintenance under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by continuous improvement of the terminal to further repair the PTA processing fee or the improvement of the PX supply - demand pattern. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: Last month, after the news of new device production, with the expectation of subsequent import increase and port inventory accumulation, the valuation was compressed, and the disk oscillated weakly. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port inventory is turning to accumulation. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, coupled with the gradual production of new devices, it is expected to continue inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression under the weak pattern. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 11 - contract was 6,586 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 224 yuan; the PX CFR price was 809 US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29 US dollars. The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue the inventory accumulation pattern in October. The PXN decreased by 11 US dollars last month [11]. - PTA: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,584 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 148 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,500 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan. The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan year - on - year [12]. - MEG: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,158 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 173 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,224 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 yuan. The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October. The naphtha - based profit decreased by 66 yuan to - 645 yuan/ton [13]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis oscillated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position declined, and the trading volume was low [32][35]. - PTA: The basis was weak, and the spread weakened [44]. - MEG: The basis stabilized after a decline, and the spread oscillated weakly. The position was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased [59][66]. 4.3 PX Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in China is expected to add 3 million tons of new capacity in the second half of the year [79]. - Supply: The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 379,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October [11]. - Cost - profit: PXN oscillated weakly, and the short - process profit declined. The gasoline performance in aromatics blending was neutral, the octane value showed certain characteristics, the US - South Korea aromatics spread strengthened, and the South Korea aromatics inventory and trade had corresponding changes [97][104]. 4.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new capacities [128]. - Supply: The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [12]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October [12]. - Profit - valuation: The processing fee improved slightly [138]. 4.5 MEG Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new capacities [142]. - Supply: The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume in September was expected to be 600,000 tons, with the same year - on - year expectation. The short - term arrival volume increased, and the import volume in October was expected to increase [13]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [13]. - Inventory: As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October [13]. - Cost - profit: Coal prices rebounded slightly, ethylene prices declined, and the valuation was neutral - high [167][170]. 4.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New polyester filament devices were put into production. The basis of short fibers and bottle chips oscillated. The start - up rate remained high. The export data in August increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The filament inventory pressure was small, the short - fiber inventory declined, and the bottle - chip inventory pressure was relieved. The filament profit was low, while the bottle - chip and short - fiber profits improved [186][190][192]. - Terminal: The start - up rate was continuously weak year - on - year. Textile enterprise orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation was weak. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing rebounded, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [213][220][225].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, steel prices may rise further. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - The coking coal and coke market is currently in a balanced supply - demand state. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment is optimistic after the holiday, the global iron ore shipment has increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. [17] - For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1600720 tons, a week - on - week increase of 127860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751430 tons, with a 32.8% decrease in building materials consumption and a 7.8% decrease in plate consumption. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai and Beijing increased slightly. [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector rebounded at the bottom during the night session yesterday. Some steel mills reduced production, and the inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a rapid decline in apparent demand. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and if the downstream demand recovers in October, the price may rise. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on steel at low prices; Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: Wait and see. [5][7][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.6%. The daily output of raw coal decreased by 10300 tons, and the inventory increased by 2500 tons. The import market of Mongolian coking coal was sluggish after the holiday. The prices of coke and coking coal in different ports and regions were provided. [9] - **Logical Analysis**: The risk of the double - coking market's decline before the holiday has been released, and it is showing strength after the holiday. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on coking coal at low prices with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on price competition. The New York Fed Chairman supported further interest - rate cuts in 2025. The sales of top - 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded in September. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the basis of the main iron - ore futures contract was 56. [13][14][16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 0.95% during the night session. The global iron - ore shipment increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. The iron - ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. [17] - **Trading Strategies**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Ferrosilicon and Manganese - Silicon - **Related Information**: The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were provided. The export volume of South African manganese ore decreased in August but increased year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August increased by 10.66% year - on - year. [20] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [23]