16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-27） | | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。本期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。 | | | | | | 铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的 | | | | | | 局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，板块跟 | | | | | | 随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势拉涨。焦炭方面，钢厂打压焦炭，对焦企第四轮提降落 | | | | ...

Core Insights - Canada made a significant divestment of $90 billion in U.S. assets in April, representing 3.5% of its total U.S. asset holdings, which is historically rare [1][4] - Deutsche Bank suggests that if this divestment is linked to tariff threats, it may signal a trend for other countries to follow suit, potentially accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" globally [3][10] Group 1: Canadian Asset Divestment - The divestment was primarily focused on fixed income products, with notable reductions in equities as well [4] - The scale of this asset reduction is unprecedented in the last decade, indicating a sudden and concentrated decision by Canadian investors [4][6] - The uncertainty index for Canada rose significantly in February and March, coinciding with the onset of tariff threats from the U.S. [8] Group 2: Global Implications - The divestment by Canada was offset by significant buying from the UK, suggesting a broader trend of capital reallocation within Europe [9] - If Canada's actions are indicative of a wider trend, more countries may reduce their U.S. asset holdings in the future, posing potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar [9][10] - The overall TIC data for April did not show any unusual foreign purchases of U.S. assets, despite market volatility, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting the dollar [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Asian emerging market credit fundamentals are currently favorably valued due to stimulus policies from China and other Asian countries to offset trade war impacts [1] - Asian central banks are easing monetary policies, contributing to low credit spreads in the region [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a cautious outlook for Asian credit markets as the Federal Reserve balances avoiding recession and controlling inflation [1] Group 2 - Local currency government bonds in Asia are supported by both fundamental and technical factors, with local buyers seeking to increase investments in these perceived risk-free securities [2] - Despite low yield levels, there is optimism for Asian local currency bonds due to favorable basic and technical factors, with some Asian emerging markets experiencing slowing inflation [2] - The expectation is that local central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies without significant concerns over inflation, especially in the context of potential economic slowdowns [2] Group 3 - The strength of the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken by Q1 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar index [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to benefit certain Asian local currency bond markets, with positive expectations for bond prices and exchange rates [3] - India is projected to be one of the least affected countries by tariff impacts, with a favorable outlook for the Indian bond market despite recent gains [3]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

2025年4月，中国再次出手，抛售了82亿美元的美国国债，使其持仓骤降至7570亿美元，创下近15年来的新低。自2022年起，中国便开启了持续的减持模 式，连续18个月的抛售，累计甩掉了超过2800亿美元的美债。 长期以来，美国对中国采取了多方面的限制措施，从加征关税到技术封锁，再到在台湾问题上不断挑衅。 美国将经济手段政治化，而中国显然不会再甘愿 充当美国债务的"冤大头"。 更令人担忧的是，美国债务问题日益严峻。 2025年，联邦债务突破36.2万亿美元大关，平均每个美国人背负超过11万美元的债务。 仅2024年，美国用于支 付利息的支出就高达1.13万亿美元，这一数字甚至超过了其国防预算。 回顾2013年，中国曾持有高达1.32万亿美元的美债，而如今的持仓几乎腰斩。 这次大规模的减持行动，远非简单的投资策略调整，而是中国在中美博弈中精 准出击，直击美国经济软肋的关键一步。 美国政府每天需要支出30多亿美元来偿还利息。 更为棘手的是，到2026年底，将有9.3万亿美元的债务到期，需要以更高的利率进行再融资，这将进一步加 剧其财政负担。 市场也对美国债务问题表现出高度担忧。 2025年4月，10年期美债收益率 ...

Group 1: Rise of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency, marking a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][5] - The rapid rise of the Renminbi is attributed to the differences in data sources, with China’s independent Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitating significant trade volumes that bypass Western systems [3][5] - Despite the Renminbi's international reserve share being only 2.18%, its influence in trade financing has surpassed the Euro, indicating a substantial underlying economic strength [5][12] Group 2: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged by internal issues such as the U.S. debt crisis, inflation, and frequent interest rate adjustments, which have eroded investor confidence [9][11] - The U.S. military's perceived inability to maintain global security, as evidenced by conflicts like the Israel-Palestine situation, further diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven currency [11] Group 3: Internal Drivers of Renminbi Growth - China's expansion of trade partnerships, particularly with Russia and African nations, has significantly increased the use of the Renminbi in international trade [12][14] - The Renminbi is viewed as a more stable alternative to the dollar, especially in times of global economic uncertainty, making it an attractive option for countries seeking to diversify their currency reserves [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential decline of dollar hegemony is imminent, but the Renminbi's rise will require sustained efforts to enhance its international influence and the adoption of its payment systems [14][16] - The transition from dollar dominance to a more multipolar currency system will take time, and the Renminbi must continue to build its credibility and usage in global transactions [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces intense pressure regarding interest rate decisions, with significant implications for U.S. debt and economic stability, as political and financial dynamics intertwine [1][3][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a willingness to lower interest rates if inflation is under control, leading to a surge in market expectations for a July rate cut from 18.6% to 77.3% [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment amid political pressures [3][8] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among committee members, with some predicting no rate cuts until 2025, while others foresee at least two cuts, highlighting uncertainty in monetary policy direction [8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed military spending and rise to $952 billion by 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [1][3] - A report warns that the U.S. debt exhibits characteristics of a "Ponzi scheme," with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%, significantly above the 60% international warning threshold [6] - The potential for a debt crisis in 2025 is underscored by the need to refinance $9.3 trillion in maturing debt, which constitutes one-third of total public debt [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's comments, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.11%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating a strong market reaction to the prospect of rate cuts [4] - Economic indicators present a mixed picture, with a healthy unemployment rate of 4.2% contrasted by rising initial jobless claims and a significant drop in consumer confidence [6][8] - The impact of tariffs under Trump's policies is projected to increase inflation, with potential long-term economic consequences [6][8] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with central banks globally reducing their dollar reserves, leading to a 57.4% share of dollar reserves, the lowest in 30 years [6] - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is evident, with countries like Poland, China, and Turkey increasing their gold holdings, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [6][10] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are seen as critical in determining the future of the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [10]

关税战走势及全球大类资产展望 - 2025 年宏观中期策略 20260626 摘要 美国债务面临巨大体量、高利息支出和短期债务到期量高等困难，特朗 普政府虽采取博弈、关税战等措施，但未能从根本上解决财政问题，稳 定币的作用有限，难以改善长期美债风险。 下半年美国经济可能因前期透支而放缓，通胀和经济回落或促使美联储 在 7 月至 9 月降息，短端利率可能回弱，但海外投资者减持长端美债， 长端利率仍需谨慎。 今年以来，美股、美债、美元表现分化，反映了定价维度和可替代性的 差异。美股受短期经济影响，美元受长期信用风险影响，全球投资分散 化趋势明显，资金流向亚洲、欧洲及黄金等商品。 美债和美元走势由负相关转为正相关，表明风险溢价上升。美股与黄金 呈现更明显的负相关性和可替代性，黄金与比特币的相关性由负转正， 成为共同避险资产。 人民币资产重估受益于人民币国际化机遇和中国科技军事根基的稳固， 中国被加征关税商品出口份额未降反升，关税战并未削弱中国制造业和 出口的长期优势。 特朗普回归后，美国债务面临三个主要困难：第一是债务体量巨大，美国政府 债务接近 37 万亿，占 GDP 的 122%；第二是利息支出高，美债平均付息 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 美元还会继续弱吗？ ——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 主要观点 3、展望：未来一年或难言美元立即进入持续下行大周期 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事（比如"去美元化"）大行其道，但宏大叙 事难以提供对短期市场走势的有效指引。本文不谈长期宏观叙事，而是希望从 我们观察到的美元指数与其历史规律"锚"的两大背离出发，结合具体数据， 重新审视当下流行的美元叙事。 ❖ （一）思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数出现长周期的背离——美国经济 占比持续回落，但美元指数上行。2008 年金融危机之前，美元指数的大型起 伏波折与美国经济占比正相关。但金融危机以来，美国经济占比持续走低，美 元指数却开启震荡上行周期，震荡中枢约为 103-104，对应美元指数历史同水 平时期美国经济占比达 27%-28%。 2、原因：流动性大宽松+欧日并不强 或有两点：一方面，金融危机后流动性大宽松环境下，美债是更具吸引力的相 对高收益资产，吸引大量资金涌入。流动性大宽松背景下，无论汇率套保与否， 美债相比 ...