Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious based on certificates of deposit (CDs) and interest rate swaps [1]. - The central bank's continuous "incremental renewal" of MLF for seven months indicates its care for the capital market, and it is expected that the cross - quarter liquidity will be generally stable, with the capital market likely to ease after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs CDs and Interest Rate Swaps - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 969.21 billion yuan, and the issuance was 791.87 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 177.34 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.69%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 168.84 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [1]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.57%, up from the previous week [1]. Repurchase Market - Last week, the pledged repurchase trading volume was between 6.7 trillion and 7.6 trillion yuan. The average R001 repurchase trading volume was 5.5536 trillion yuan, down 724.7 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repurchase balance was 12.2 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [2]. - By institution, the lending scale of large banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and funds decreased, while that of wealth management increased. As of Friday, the reverse repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 4.28 trillion yuan and 2.48 trillion yuan, down 110.3 billion yuan and up 145 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.76 trillion yuan, 1.97 trillion yuan, and 867.5 billion yuan, down 30.7 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and up 122.8 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [2]. Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.85%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decline in bill interest rates indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in the demand for bill volume - boosting [3]. - Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.13, up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since July. The US also announced the PCE price index for August, showing that the increase in personal consumption expenditure in August exceeded expectations, and the basic inflation pressure remained stable [3]. Capital Market and Policy - Last week, the open market had a maturity of 2.1268 trillion yuan, including 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open market made a total investment of 3.0674 trillion yuan, including 1.5674 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase, and 600 billion yuan of MLF, with a net investment of 940.6 billion yuan [6]. - Last week, the capital market was generally tight. The average DR007 was 1.54%, up 2BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.62%, up 10BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.41% and 1.46% respectively. The exchange repurchase interest rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.82%, up 29BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 2.4674 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [6]. This Week's Focus - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 516.6 billion yuan, all of which are reverse repurchase maturities [4]. - On Monday, the eurozone's economic sentiment index for September will be announced; on Tuesday, China's official manufacturing PMI for September will be announced; on Wednesday, the eurozone's harmonized CPI for September will be announced; on Friday, the US non - farm payroll data for September will be announced. There may also be a Politburo meeting this week [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing is expected to result in stable liquidity [2] - The liquidity is likely to return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels at the end of the month [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a shift from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "implementing detailed moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The focus remains on implementing existing policies without mentioning rate cuts, indicating a continued emphasis on supporting consumption and small and micro enterprises [3] - The monetary policy attitude is still "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter due to weak demand [3] Group 4 - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to prioritize capital replenishment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to continue its short - term volatile trend, but the adjustment space is limited. The long - term bond interest rate is expected to decline smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to recover to around 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year. A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy [6][23]. Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its weak and volatile trend. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.80% and 2.12% respectively, with changes of - 0.5bps and + 1.9bps from last week. The yields of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 1.0bps to 1.69%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds rose significantly by 11.6bps and 17.9bps to 2.11% and 2.31% respectively [1][9]. Seasonal Characteristics of the Bond Market - There is no obvious seasonality in long - term bonds around the National Day. After the holiday, funds tend to be seasonally loose. In the past four years, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by an average of 0.9bp in the first week after the National Day and 0.2bp in October compared with the end of September. The funds in October were not significantly tightened. Considering the current insufficient financing demand and the central bank's care for liquidity, the overall funds are expected to remain loose, and R007 is expected to run around 1.4% - 1.5% [2][10]. Fundamental Analysis - In recent months, the financing demand has been weak, credit has increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing has slowed down. Even if 1 trillion of refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter, the supply of government bonds will still be about 0.7 trillion less than last year. The funds are expected to remain loose, and the asset shortage is expected to intensify. The recent weakening of fundamental data also means that economic stabilization requires low - interest rate support [2][13]. Analysis of Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.5% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 0.7% in the previous month. Part of the improvement is due to the low base last year (a year - on - year decline of 22.2% in August last year), and the other part may be due to the increase in investment income from the good performance of the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly operating income of industrial enterprises in August increased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.4% compared with July. The increase in profit may be more from investment income, and its sustainability needs further observation [3][14]. Stabilizing Forces in the Bond Market - As bond yields continued to rise in the third quarter, allocation - type institutions began to continuously buy bonds, which played a role in stabilizing the market. On the one hand, the current interest rate level is attractive compared with the liability cost of allocation - type institutions. On the other hand, large banks and other institutions are responsible for stabilizing the market, as the new revised evaluation indicators for primary dealers in open - market operations include bond - market making and assess their performance in stabilizing the market during bond - market fluctuations [4][17]. Uncertainties in the Bond Market - The reform of public - fund fees may affect the allocation power of non - bank institutions, especially when the consultation period for the draft opinion expires on October 5. Seasonal changes in some data, such as the possible seasonal rebound of the manufacturing PMI in September (an average increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with August in the past four years), may also affect market sentiment [5][18]. Investment Strategy - A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy (short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates). High - selling and low - buying band operations can be carried out for long - term interest - rate positions. The 10 - year Treasury bond with a yield above 1.8% still has allocation value [6][23].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - This week, the bond market declined overall. At the beginning of the week, the three departments' press conference did not release further easing signals, and the market's expectations were disappointed. After Wednesday, as institutions bought long - term treasury bonds at low prices and the central bank resumed 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates first rose and then fell due to the end - of - quarter factor, and the central bank carried out net MLF and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Aspect - **Policy**: From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment, and implement more proactive macro - policies [1] - **Inflation**: In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1] Capital Aspect - **Finance**: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan in the first eight months, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. The growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly [2] - **Central Bank**: On September 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. This week, the central bank conducted net MLF operations of 30 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan [2][3] - **Money Market**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.53%, and 1.71% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] Market Aspect - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.54 yuan, 107.68 yuan, and 114.19 yuan respectively. The weekly fluctuations were - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.27%, and - 0.82% respectively [2] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.54 yuan respectively [2] Strategy Aspect - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the basis spread rebound of TL2512 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's OMO net injection was CNY 640.6 billion, and MLF net injection was CNY 300 billion during the week of September 22-26, 2025[7] - The average DR001 in September remained below 1.4%, indicating stable liquidity despite the central bank's net withdrawal actions[28] - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting maintained a positive tone, emphasizing the need to implement existing policies effectively[29] Market Behavior and Trends - The interbank market's cross-quarter progress reached 50.4%, exceeding the 20-24 year average by 7.7 percentage points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among institutions[20] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 7.27 trillion, despite a notable drop on Friday[15] - Non-bank institutions showed a mixed trend in rigid financing, with a decrease in insurance and other products, while money market funds saw a significant increase[15] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing scale of government bonds in September was CNY 1.21 trillion, a decrease of approximately CNY 120 billion compared to August[4] - Upcoming government bond payments are expected to rise from CNY 910 billion to CNY 1.927 trillion, primarily concentrated on Monday[4] - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q4 is projected at CNY 7.1 trillion, with a focus on new special bonds[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (9/22 - 9/26), bond market yields first rose and then fell, mainly driven by central bank open - market operations, end - of - quarter and holiday - related liquidity fluctuations, and stock - bond seesaw effects. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP [1][8]. - Looking ahead to next week, the liquidity situation will face month - end and quarter - end challenges, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday. The fundamentals show mixed production indicators, mixed real - estate transaction year - on - year performance, and a comprehensive decline in the price index. The supply of interest - rate bonds decreased from 9/22 - 9/28. The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity this week [2][3]. - The bond market is facing headwinds in a volatile environment, and there are mainly allocation opportunities. Next week, attention should be paid to the release of the September PMI data, the central bank's support for the liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period, and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on market sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market: Interest Rates First Rose and Then Fell, and the Yield Curve Remained Essentially Flat - From 9/22 - 9/26, bond market yields first rose and then fell. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP. The 10Y yield movement was influenced by central bank support for end - of - quarter liquidity, increased market risk - aversion before the holiday, and market expectations regarding the new public - fund fee regulations [1][8]. - Specifically, on 9/22, bond market interest rates declined slightly. The central bank's net injection of 2605 billion yuan through 14D and 7D OMOs loosened the liquidity and boosted market sentiment. On 9/23, yields rose due to the central bank's shift from net injection to net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan and market concerns about the new public - fund regulations and tax - exemption policies. On 9/24, yields continued to rise as the stock market was strong and the central bank's 7D OMOs led to a net withdrawal. On 9/25, yields declined as the central bank injected 2965 billion yuan through 7D OMOs to support end - of - quarter liquidity. On 9/26, yields continued to decline as the central bank's net injection of 4115 billion yuan through 7D and 14D OMOs and the stock market adjustment before the holiday supported the bond market [26][27]. 3.2 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook: Liquidity Faces Month - End and Quarter - End Challenges, Likely to Return to Equilibrium after the Holiday - Fundamentals: Production indicators were mixed. The开工 rates of refined PTA and automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.355 and 0.08 percentage points respectively, while the blast - furnace开工 rate increased by 0.47 percentage points. On the demand side, overall demand recovered, but real - estate transactions were still mixed. The year - on - year change in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6.57%, while that of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 39.15%. Passenger - car sales also recovered with an increased margin, rising 10.36% year - on - year. The price index declined comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.94% and 0.1% respectively, the production - material price index decreased by 0.2%, and the crude - oil price decreased by 5.22% year - on - year [31][43][49]. - Supply: From 9/22 - 9/28, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds decreased. The issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) was 2475.3 billion yuan, 1960.51 billion yuan, and 7918.7 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 2600.98 billion yuan compared to last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 84.3% (including the planned issuance next week), and the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds was 84.3% and 84% respectively [2][64]. - Liquidity: From 9/22 - 9/26, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity. This week, the liquidity tightened marginally. DR001 and DR007 changed by - 15BP and 4BP respectively compared to 9/19, reaching 1.36% and 1.49%. The yields of 3M and 1Y CDs changed by about 1BP each, reaching 1.59% and 1.69%. The 1Y - 3M CD term spread remained at 10BP, and the 6M - 3M CD term spread expanded by 1BP to about 7BP. Next week, due to month - end, quarter - end, and the National Day holiday, the liquidity may tighten seasonally, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday with central bank support [3][70]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: Bond Market Faces Headwinds in a Volatile Environment, with Allocation Opportunities - Attention should be paid to three aspects: the release of September PMI data and the market's pricing of the expected upward repair of fundamentals; the central bank's support for liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period; and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on marginal redemptions and market expectations [80]. - Considering these factors, the potential for further downward pricing of fundamentals is limited compared to the expected upward repair. Although the bond market has shown some desensitization to the strong stock market since late August, risky assets such as stocks still suppress the bond market. The implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations may cause short - term negative feedback in the market, but the probability of significant redemptions disrupting the market is currently low. If there is a significant daily pulse of 2 - 4BP or more, it is advisable to seize the opportunity. Overall, the bond market is unlikely to experience a significant bear market, but short - term fluctuations may increase. The 1.8% level of the 10Y active bond offers good allocation value. In a volatile market, it is advisable to maintain an appropriate duration and increase allocations when yields are high. The short - end yields are likely to return to equilibrium after the month - end, with the policy rate (1.4%) as the lower limit. Currently, the short - end has reached 1.39%, so the odds of short - term profit - taking are limited. For the long - end, although the main trend has not changed significantly, short - term negative factors may accumulate, and fluctuations may increase. It is still recommended to seize the allocation opportunity at the 1.8% key level [4][5][87]. 3.3 Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Economic Calendar - Central bank open - market operations: In the past four weeks, the net injections (or withdrawals) were 4961 billion yuan, - 12047 billion yuan, 1961 billion yuan, 5623 billion yuan, and 9406 billion yuan respectively. Next week, there will be net withdrawals of 5166 billion yuan and 19508 billion yuan in one and two weeks respectively [88]. - Next week's fund calendar (9/29 - 10/5): The expected issuance of local government bonds is 526.97 billion yuan and 544.55 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. The maturity amounts of CDs are relatively high on Thursday and Friday. The maturity amounts of reverse repos are 2405 billion yuan and 2761 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. Thursday is a tax - payment week, and it is not a reserve - payment week [91]. - Next week's economic calendar: On September 30th at 9:30, the official non - manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI (market expectation: 50.10), and comprehensive PMI for September will be released [91].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of making investment decisions in the face of market fluctuations and the tendency to hope for a return to previous price levels, which can hinder timely actions [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a significant operation with 1,658 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 6,000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos, resulting in a net injection of 4,115 billion yuan into the market [3][5]. - The interbank funding rates showed a notable decline, with DR001 dropping over 15 basis points to around 1.32% and DR007 decreasing by 7 basis points to approximately 1.53% [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly, closing at 1.799% after reaching a low of 1.795% during the day [5][6]. Group 2: Financing Trends - The interbank certificates of deposit have seen a negative net financing for four consecutive months, which is expected to set a record for the longest continuous net repayment period [6]. - The reasons for this trend include a large amount of maturing debt, an increase in recent issuance rates from 1.6% to 1.7%, and weak loan demand [6]. Group 3: Bond Market Performance - The bond market exhibited mixed performance, with the sentiment being cautious in the morning session, leading to slight increases in yields [5]. - The trading volume for various repo rates showed significant changes, with R001 at 25,029.28 billion yuan, down by 36,410.45 billion yuan, and R007 at 31,317.05 billion yuan, up by 28,680.99 billion yuan [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bonds remain a weak asset currently. At the end of September, first focus on changes in the funding situation and the equity market, and approach with a cautious mindset. Also, look ahead to the main - line switching process in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the bond market switched to a relatively clear main - line logic each quarter, and the main - line logic weakened at the end of each quarter. The trading main - line in the fourth quarter may switch to institutional behavior changes and interest - rate cut expectations successively, and the yield curve may show a pattern of steepening first and then flattening [17][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Funds Price: Tightening of Quarter - End Funding - From September 19th to September 25th, the central bank made a net open - market injection of nearly 60 billion yuan. On September 22nd, it conducted 30 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. During the statistical period, the overall funds price increased, with the DR007 rising to 1.6%, the R007 rising to 1.8%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield rising to 1.7%, the highest since early June [8] 3.2 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From September 19th to September 25th, 119 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 708.6 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 77.2 billion yuan. On September 19th, 82 billion yuan of 30 - year special treasury bonds were re - issued at a price of 99.67 yuan, with an annual yield of 2.17%, higher than the secondary - market transaction price. The issuance scale of local special bonds increased seasonally at the end of the month. As of September 25th, 1.23 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds had been issued in 2025, with about 70 billion yuan remaining to be issued; 3.66 trillion yuan of new local special bonds had been issued, with about 240 billion yuan remaining to be issued [10][11] 3.3 Secondary Market: Uptick in Yield Curve - From September 19th to September 25th, the treasury bond yield curve rose again, with increased intraday volatility. The main constraint on the bond market during this statistical period came from the news front. The market expected that the redemption fee adjustment for public bond funds was imminent, which led institutions to actively redeem bond funds. Additionally, the stock - bond seesaw effect still existed, and the relatively strong and volatile equity market also dampened bond market sentiment [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The bond market currently has low sensitivity to fundamentals. From an asset - allocation perspective, weak fundamentals imply a low return rate in the real economy. However, in the stage of low bond coupons and capital losses, bond - type assets also struggle to provide higher comprehensive returns, so the bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals has declined [17] - **Policy**: Incremental policies will mainly cover three directions. First, after the release of August economic data, market expectations for pro - growth policies have increased, with promoting consumption and expanding infrastructure likely to be key areas. The real - estate sector may also see partial relaxation. Second, the fund redemption fee adjustment plan will be officially implemented. Third, there is still a high expectation that the central bank will restart open - market bond purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market, which may occur alongside the redemption fee adjustment to smooth out bond market fluctuations. Based on 2024 experience, the central bank mainly buys short - term bonds, so the yield curve is likely to steepen, and caution is needed for long - term bonds [17] - **Funds**: There is still pressure on the cross - quarter funding situation [18]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.11% to 114.110 yuan, hitting a new low since November 28, 2024, at 113.35 yuan during intraday trading [1] - The 10-year main contract fell by 0.01%, reaching a new low of 107.345 yuan since March 19, with an intraday decline of 0.26% [1] - The 5-year and 2-year main contracts both decreased by 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 10-year government development bond "25国开15" yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.9570% [1] - The 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 1.8070%, with an intraday high of 1.8360% [1] - The 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield remained unchanged at 2.1140%, with an intraday high of 2.1425% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 25, with a total bid amount of 483.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 487 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also planned to conduct a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on September 25, with a one-year term [2] - With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing in September, the net MLF injection for the month will reach 300 billion yuan, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - Overall, the MLF and reverse repurchase operations in September released a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining the same net injection scale as August [2] - Despite the central bank's actions, interbank market liquidity remains limited, with overnight repurchase rates rising nearly 4 basis points to around 1.47% [2] Operational Recommendations - The central bank's excess MLF operations have not significantly eased funding conditions, leading to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [3] - The bond market outlook remains mixed, influenced by market risk appetite, policies to expand domestic demand, and quarter-end institutional behaviors [3] - The central bank's potential resumption of government bond trading remains uncertain, and quarter-end funding fluctuations are expected to increase [3] - Without additional negative factors, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to operate within a high range of 1.8-1.83%, but short-term rate declines may be limited around 1.75% [3] - The T2512 contract is anticipated to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.35, with 107.4 providing some support [3] - Investors are advised to focus on range trading strategies and maintain a quick entry and exit approach, while also considering participation in TL contract basis narrowing strategies [3]