Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting high dividend yield assets and companies with strong growth potential [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high dividend yield assets in stable industry segments, particularly in packaging and home furnishing sectors [5][10]. - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower procurement costs in the paper industry, with price increases in wood pulp and seasonal demand supporting paper prices [2][12]. - The report identifies key companies for investment, including packaging leaders like Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, and home furnishing brands such as Kuka Home and Mousse [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Short-term focus on high dividend yield assets in stable packaging companies and leading home furnishing brands [5][6]. - Anticipated benefits from RMB appreciation leading to lower procurement costs in the paper industry [5][12]. - Recommendations for companies with strong export capabilities and potential for brand development [5][15]. 2. Industry Perspectives Packaging - The packaging industry is stabilizing, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and maintaining high dividend payouts [6][7]. - Yongxin Co. is noted for its strong position in soft packaging and high dividend rates [6]. - Yutong Technology benefits from global supply chain advantages and is expected to increase its dividend payout [7]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by supportive real estate policies and improving consumer confidence [10][11]. - Companies like Kuka Home and Mousse are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [10][11]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is entering a recovery phase with stabilizing prices and improved demand dynamics [12][14]. - Companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are positioned to benefit from these trends [12][14]. Export Sector - The report highlights the importance of global supply chain strategies and brand development for companies in the export sector [15][16]. - Companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co. are noted for their strong export capabilities and market positioning [15][16]. Pet Products - The pet products sector is experiencing growth with strong domestic brands and international expansion [19]. - Companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet are recommended for their robust growth potential [19]. Light Industry - The report discusses the strategic changes in light industry companies, focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance growth [20]. - Companies like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home are noted for their innovative approaches and market positioning [20][21].

投资策略 [Table_MainInfo] A 股业绩支撑：政策呵护逻辑下的价格水平 ——A 股市场投资策略专题报告 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2025 | 12 | 30 | [Table_Analysis] | [Table_Summary] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 投资要点： | 宋亦威 | | | | | | | | | | | | 就 | 年行情的业绩支撑而言，并不来自于量的超预期增长，而来自于 | ⚫ | 2026 | 022-23861608 | 价格端的有效支撑。从今年 | 月、11 | 月的情况来看，PPI | 价格已经连续 | 10 | | | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 两月出现环比转正，这种态势如能持续，将意味着明年 | 同比降幅将 | PPI | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Author] | 严 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - supply situation in the aluminum industry is difficult to change in 2026, and policies and the mine end are the key variables [58] - The main theme of supply and demand in 2026 is still surplus, and the expected price driver mainly depends on changes in the mines. If prices remain low for a long time, attention should be paid to new changes in anti - involution policies. Overall, prices will fluctuate around the cost - end, with short - term news causing only minor disturbances, and are expected to operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pre - review - The short - term rise in aluminum prices was due to the National Development and Reform Commission's article encouraging large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions to improve scale and group levels [5] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect No information related to the macro - economic aspect is provided in the report. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect 3.3.1 Bauxite - In 2026, bauxite production is expected to increase by 1500 - 2200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3 - 4%. The main incremental source is the commissioning of Nimba (formerly GAC), with an expected annual capacity of 1400 tons. However, this may not be enough to make up for the reduction in production at the AXIS mine in 2025 [13][58] - Ore prices may face a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with limited downward space. If the commissioning of Nimba is less than expected, the ore may return to a tight supply situation in the first quarter of 2026 [58] 3.3.2 Alumina - In 2025 - 2026, domestic alumina new production capacity is expected to increase by 1390 tons, and overseas production capacity is expected to increase by 330 tons. The overall smelting capacity will be sufficient [20] - The cost on December 29 was 2800 yuan, with a loss of 140 yuan [52] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is 16,150 yuan/ton, and the profit is close to 6,000 yuan [28] 3.3.4 Aluminum Demand - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, and the investment amount decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. It is difficult to expect good performance in 2026 [40] - In the first 10 months of 2025, air - conditioner production increased by 3% year - on - year, with a production volume of 230.34 million units, and the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, domestic home appliance sales growth is limited, and there are challenges in overseas markets [42] - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 27.69 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. In 2026, traditional automobile consumption will face greater pressure, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles may also slow down [44] 3.4 Market Structure - In terms of capital, the long - position increased by 6,559, and the net long - position was 651,203; the short - position decreased by 9,890, and the net short - position was 387,635. The net position was 31,545, and the long - short difference was 112,305 [56] 3.5 Outlook - The supply side: The industry continues to face losses, and supply pressure remains. Ore prices have strong support due to decreasing supply and increasing demand, and domestic alumina smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1000 tons next year [58] - The demand side: The marginal support on the demand side is limited. Although the current capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum has reached 98% and provides rigid support for alumina demand in the short term, there is limited room for further growth in demand due to the production capacity ceiling [58] - Market forecast: The supply - demand situation in 2026 is still in surplus, and prices will mainly operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral (Oscillating) [6] - Polysilicon: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday profit - taking by funds, new energy metals experience significant fluctuations. However, the concern about supply disruptions remains, and there are opportunities to buy low after the price of lithium carbonate stops falling. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The supply and demand surplus of lithium carbonate is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of December 29, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 387.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In November, exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to November decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 75% month - on - month and decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. In December, the demand from the polysilicon industry was weak, the production of silicone decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry was limited [6]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, but due to the fluctuations in coal prices and market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Market Information**: In the week of December 29, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 1.32% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 30. From January to November 2025, the export volume decreased by 32% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 53% year - on - year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was established, and two new brands were added to the polysilicon futures registration [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, the anti - involution policy may restrict the supply. The demand for polysilicon has been gradually weakening since November. Although the anti - involution policy is expected to continue to ferment and the downstream prices of photovoltaic have stopped falling and stabilized, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating bullish [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Company News**: On December 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 8.96%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate also increased. Several leading cathode material manufacturers announced production line maintenance, which will reduce production in January [10]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. Although the maintenance of material factories in January may lead to demand weakening and increased inventory, the price is expected to be oscillating bullish, and the decline is limited, with opportunities to buy low [11]. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70% [53]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 29, 2025, the index was 498.73, with a daily decline of 5.69%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 8.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.94% [55].

Steel Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The steel industry is expected to see profitability bottom out in Q3 2024, with overall earnings remaining below historical averages. The profit outlook for 2025 is poor, except for a few months in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Key Points on Demand - Demand for steel in the real estate sector is expected to continue declining until 2026, although the rate of decline is narrowing. Manufacturing and exports are emerging as new growth drivers, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as machinery, home appliances, and new energy [1][3][4] - The overall steel consumption in the construction chain is stabilizing, with exports and manufacturing becoming critical growth points. Recent export license management policies may lead to some steel returning to the domestic market, affecting supply and inventory levels [1][6] Production and Cost Dynamics - There are discrepancies in growth rates and statistical data across different stages of steel production (pig iron, crude steel, and finished steel), leading to varied market expectations regarding raw material price support [1][5] - Upstream raw material prices (iron ore and coking coal) are severely squeezing the profitability of midstream steel producers. The potential for upstream concessions, such as the commissioning of the Simandou mine, could lower costs [1][7] Policy Impacts - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve supply-demand fundamentals and stabilize steel prices. The effectiveness of the 50 million ton production cut plan is crucial for market expectations [1][8] - The carbon emissions trading system will create significant differentiation among steel companies, with those holding excess quotas able to profit from selling them, while those lacking quotas will face increased costs [1][11] Environmental and Regulatory Trends - The steel industry is entering a phase of stricter environmental and energy consumption management, with policies expected to be fully implemented by the end of 2025. The year 2026 will be critical for assessing the effectiveness of these measures [1][9][10] Investment Opportunities - In 2026, leading companies like Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Hesteel have already seen valuation increases due to their strong performance in product demand and cost management. However, second-tier companies with production capacities of 10-20 million tons, which have historically underperformed, may present significant investment opportunities if they can reduce production costs by 100-200 RMB per ton, potentially doubling their profits [1][12][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Chemical Industry Investment Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The chemical industry is undergoing significant changes on the supply side, with European capacity being reduced due to cost pressures and domestic fixed asset investment growth slowing down, which may lead to improved profits in certain sub-industries [1][2] - The China Chemical Price Index (CCPI) and the gross profit margin of the Yangtze Chemical Sector are at historically low levels, indicating a cyclical fluctuation in the industry, with a potential upward cycle on the horizon [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment strategy for the chemical industry in 2026 can be summarized as "supply optimization, rising momentum," following three years of downturn from 2023 to 2025 [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a global GDP growth rate of approximately 3.09% for 2026, with China's growth at 4.2%, suggesting resilient external demand [5] - Emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI infrastructure are positively impacting the demand for chemical products, with significant growth in new energy vehicle production and global energy storage installations [6] Performance of Domestic and Overseas Companies - Domestic chemical leaders experienced a year-on-year decline in performance in the first half of 2025, but overseas companies faced a faster decline, with Europe shutting down 11 million tons of capacity across 21 major production bases [7] - China's market share in the chemical sector increased from less than 10% in 2020 to 43% in 2023 due to the closure of European capacities [7] Policy Impacts - The domestic anti-involution policy is positively influencing the governance of disorderly competition and promoting the exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [8] - Energy consumption dual control and environmental policies are likely to become key drivers for supply optimization, aiming to reduce excess capacity through stricter project approvals and enhanced regulation [9] Sub-Industry Focus - Notable sub-industries include the silicon-based industry chain, polyester industry chain, spandex, soda ash, chlor-alkali, high-demand refrigerants, chromium salts, and phosphate rock industry chain, as well as new materials related to tires and new energy [3][10] - The organic silicon industry is expected to recover from a low point due to limited new supply and collaborative production cuts among companies [11] - The polyester industry chain is nearing the end of its expansion cycle, with downstream demand remaining strong, and leading companies are negotiating to improve profitability [12] Challenges and Opportunities - The soda ash market faces challenges due to its significant exposure to the real estate sector, but long-term demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to rise [15] - The chlor-alkali industry shows stable demand for caustic soda, while PVC demand is fluctuating, with no new PVC capacity expected in 2026 [16] Noteworthy Companies and Investment Opportunities - High-quality companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua (MDI leader), Hualu (coal chemical leader), Longbai (titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide leader), and Huafeng (spandex) [19] - New material companies such as Guocera Songjing (related to solid-state batteries) and Dongcai Shengquan (high-frequency resin) are also highlighted for their growth potential [20][21]

Group 1 - Haitong Securities emphasizes the investment opportunity in energy leaders with production expansion and cost reduction capabilities, supported by a long-term oil price floor around $60 per barrel [1] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market is seeing significant institutional investment in A500 ETF, indicating a stable influx of funds and a potential "cross-year + spring" market rally [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the rapid development of GaN technology as a key driver for the next generation of robotics, enabling significant reductions in size and energy loss for servo drives [3] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates limited downward space for funding rates, with DR001 approaching the lower bound of the interest rate corridor, suggesting a stable low-interest environment ahead [4] - CITIC Securities reports that the IPO process for leading private commercial rocket companies may accelerate following the release of new listing standards by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5] - CITIC Securities predicts stable sales for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival, supported by measures taken by leading companies to manage inventory and promote sales [6] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities points out that structural characteristics of the economy remain evident, with high-end industries and related raw materials sectors being key areas of focus for investment [7] - CICC forecasts a potential turnaround year for the photovoltaic industry in 2026, with improvements in supply-demand relationships and opportunities for leading companies to return to profitability [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive performance of the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days" rebound, driven by expectations of a "spring market" and increased trading volumes [3][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by global liquidity easing, particularly in the U.S., which is expected to support financial asset prices. Domestic monetary policy aims for cross-cycle adjustments, with a long-term easing bias remaining intact [3][8] - The bond market showed signs of stabilization, with short-term yields declining while long-term yields remained volatile. The current economic recovery is still uncertain, limiting the potential for significant adjustments in the bond market [4][9] Group 2 - The public fund market is witnessing significant interest, as evidenced by the successful subscription of the 华夏中核清洁能源 REIT, which attracted over 160 billion yuan in subscriptions, indicating strong investor confidence [11][12] - The REITs market is experiencing a broad increase, with the 中证 REITs total return index rising by 1.56%, driven by sectors such as affordable housing and industrial parks [10] - The article highlights the performance of various fund indices, with the growth stock fund index showing a notable increase of 4.20% for the week, reflecting strong investor interest in growth-oriented investments [14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - In 2025, PVC prices trended downward in a volatile manner. In 2026, demand is expected to improve slowly, with real - estate data showing a slower decline year - on - year. Indian demand and exports are likely to increase. Supply expansion will slow down, and spring maintenance may reduce supply pressure. Overall, PVC prices are expected to bottom out in a volatile way, first falling and then rising. Pay attention to changes in the operating rate. When the operating rate decreases or macro - policies are released, consider going long. If macro - policies are ineffective, PVC futures prices are expected to fall back. Spot enterprises can seize opportunities when the basis is strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: In 2025, PVC futures prices were affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, international policies and conflicts. They fell overall, with small rebounds in May and 6 - 7 months, and hit a record low in mid - December before rebounding [3][5]. - **Spot prices**: PVC spot prices followed the futures prices, with a high correlation coefficient of 0.981 between PVC futures and East China spot prices. In 2025, the basis and inter - month spreads were mostly negative, especially during the main contract change. The 01 contract basis rose to a neutral level in December, but the 05 contract basis dropped to a low level [12]. 3.2 PVC Upstream - **Calcium carbide**: In 2025, calcium carbide prices first decreased and then increased, with the overall price center shifting down. The profit of calcium carbide in Wuhai was mostly negative, but production increased by 13% from January to November. It is expected to be in a state of oversupply in 2026 [24]. - **Semi - coke**: Semi - coke prices also first decreased and then increased in 2025, mostly at the lowest level in recent years. The operating rate first decreased and then increased, and the profit was mostly in a loss state [24]. - **Caustic soda**: From January to November 2025, caustic soda production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 42.326 million tons. Prices rose at the beginning of the year and then fell due to factors such as alumina production expectations and cost changes [25]. - **Profit**: In 2025, the external calcium carbide method and ethylene method were always in a loss state, but the caustic soda profit was good. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was mostly profitable. However, since the fourth quarter, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been declining, and some enterprises have fallen into losses [28]. 3.3 PVC Production, Capacity and Maintenance - **Production**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.0793 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 5.62%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.38% year - on - year to 22.3242 million tons [35]. - **Capacity**: In 2025, the actual PVC capacity increased by 2.08 million tons to 29.62 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.55%. In 2026, only the 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Zhejiang Jiaxing Jiahua will be put into production, and the capacity expansion will slow down significantly [47]. - **Maintenance**: In 2025, there were few long - term shutdown and maintenance devices. Pay attention to whether the number of maintenance devices will increase significantly under the pressure of comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [49]. 3.4 PVC Import and Export - **Import**: In November 2025, China's PVC import volume was 15,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% and a month - on - month increase of 44.15%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 202,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% [62]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the export volume was 275,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.64% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.78%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 3.5091 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.17%. India is the largest export destination, and the abolition of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax is beneficial to exports [62][67]. 3.5 Real - Estate Data - In 2025, from January to November, real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the sales area decreased by 7.8%, the sales volume decreased by 11.1%, the new construction area decreased by 20.5%, the construction area decreased by 9%, and the completion area decreased by 18.0%. In 2026, it is expected that policies will continue to support the real - estate market, but it will take time to strongly support PVC [71][74][75]. 3.6 PVC Downstream - **Operating rate**: The overall downstream operating rate of PVC was weak in 2025, especially from April to September. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 45.39%. PVC film had a relatively high operating rate of about 70%, while pipes and profiles had a lower operating rate of about 40% [81][89]. - **Exports of floor coverings**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC floor coverings was 380,380 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88%. Exports are expected to remain at a low level due to US tariffs, but the improvement of US sales needs attention [90]. 3.7 PVC Inventory - **Factory inventory**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the factory inventory decreased by 4.59% month - on - month to 328,500 tons, an increase of 14.86% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 22.35% compared with the beginning of the year [92]. - **Social inventory**: After seasonal inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, the social inventory decreased from mid - March and then increased continuously from July. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 1.0566 million tons, an increase of 28.58% compared with the same period last year and an increase of 33.74% compared with the beginning of the year. High inventory will limit the rebound of PVC prices [97].