炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 今日（12月17日）午后，A股放量大幅上攻，创业板指大涨3.39%，创近2个月来最大单日涨幅，深证成 指、科创50也均涨逾2%，上证指数、沪深300、上证50等亦涨超1%，市场成交温和放大至1.83亿元。 万和证券认为，市场将震荡上行，"反内卷"政策有效推动市场竞争持续优化，扩内需、保民生等政策落 地带来供需关系的改善，建议关注消费行业的投资机会。此外，高技术制造业继续位于扩张区间，且明 显高于制造业总体水平，行业支撑作用持续显现，建议关注受益于政策和业绩驱动的集成电路、商业航 天板块。 市场热点方面，大金融午后集体异动拉升成为市场上涨主要动力。券商股在13：30左右开始放量，板块 指数约40分钟就由绿盘转为大涨近3%。华泰证券盘中一度冲击涨停，股价创2015年6月以来10年半新高 （复权，下同），收盘涨幅收窄至6.09%；兴业证券、广发证券等涨幅居前。 同一时段，保险板块指数也放量拉升，一度涨近4%，创历史新高。板块内所有个股上涨，中国太保、 新华保险逼近历史最高点，中国人寿、中国平安创年内新高。 银行板块指数午后也一度涨逾1%，多元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rebound, with significant increases in major indices, driven by expectations of monetary easing following disappointing U.S. employment data [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, while the ChiNext Index increased by more than 3% [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.81 trillion, an increase of 87 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Growth ETFs - The Growth ETF surged by 5.28%, and the ChiNext Growth ETF rose by 4.94%, with the E Fund ChiNext Growth ETF increasing by 3.81% [3]. - The National Growth 100 Index, which the Growth ETF tracks, employs a unique compilation method that focuses on multiple profit growth indicators to identify genuine growth stocks [3]. Institutional Outlook - Major institutions like UBS, JPMorgan, and Fidelity believe that Chinese assets have a solid foundation for continued rebound due to profit growth, accelerated innovation, and attractive valuations [3]. - The consensus among international institutions is that the core driver for Chinese assets will shift from "valuation repair" to "profit growth" by 2026 [4]. Profit Growth Drivers - JPMorgan identified corporate earnings as a key variable for the next phase of asset appreciation in China, while Goldman Sachs noted a transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven market dynamics [4]. - The expected recovery in corporate earnings is supported by factors such as anti-involution policies, global demand for AI, and growth opportunities from companies expanding overseas [4]. Future Projections - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Chinese stock market could reach historical highs by 2027, driven by a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) growth, projected to rise to approximately 12% in 2026 [5]. - This EPS growth is expected to surpass historical averages from 2015-2020 (6%) and 2020-2024 (8%), indicating a qualitative leap in profit momentum [5]. - Key indices are projected to achieve a 30%-40% increase by the end of 2027, marking a potential historical peak [5]. Long-term Trends - Although these dynamics may not immediately reflect in stock prices, they are gradually being incorporated into long-term funding pricing models [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets showed a pattern of weak operation in the first half and a rebound in the second half. The overall supply - demand situation was loose, and it is expected that the supply - demand pattern in the second half of 2025 will continue in 2026. The prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the supply of imported coal, and terminal consumption [2][15][79] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Review of Futures Market Trends and Spot Price Tracking - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets continued the weak pattern of 2024 in the first half, with prices falling due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, and other factors. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, coal production decreased, and the supply - demand pattern improved, leading to a price rebound. However, in November, the prices declined due to the off - season of terminal demand [8][9] - Spot prices of coking coal first fell and then rose, while coke prices experienced multiple rounds of price cuts in the first half and price increases in the second half, with a complex price adjustment process throughout the year [12][13] II. Coking Coal Supply Analysis 1. Slight Increase in Domestic Coking Coal Production, with Output Contraction in the Second Half - In 2025, the overall supply of domestic coking coal was loose. From January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal was 397,319 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The output of raw coal in Shanxi had a significant driving effect, with a cumulative output of 108,486 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [17] - The operating rate and daily output of mines and coal washing plants increased after the Spring Festival, but decreased from May to June due to safety and environmental protection inspections. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, the operating rate and output remained low [16][18] - The coal washing process showed a contraction trend, with the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants lower than the previous year. The daily output of clean coal remained low and fluctuated little [21] - It is expected that the growth rate of raw coal output will slow down in 2026, and the supply will remain at a low level, mainly for energy supply security. Attention should be paid to the raw coal production in Shanxi, Xinjiang and other regions [24] 2. Year - on - Year Contraction of Imported Coking Coal, with Mongolian and Russian Coal Dominating - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 94.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia were the top two import sources, accounting for nearly 80% [26] - Mongolian coal imports from January to October were 47.71 million tons, ranking first. Although there was a slight year - on - year decrease, the volume was still at a relatively high level in recent five years. After the second half of the year, imports increased due to the price difference, but decreased in October due to political instability and then recovered [29][31] - Russian coal imports from January to October were 26.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.46%. Although there was a decline in May, the long - term contract volume was relatively stable. Russia may increase its coal exports to China in the future [32] - US coal imports were severely hit, and imports basically stopped from May, with a cumulative import of only 2.91 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year decrease of 65.7% [32] - It is expected that in 2026, with stricter domestic coal production control, the increase in coking coal supply will mainly come from overseas imports, and the main sources will still be Mongolia and Russia [37] III. Coke Supply Analysis - Coke supply showed a self - regulating trend affected by corporate profitability and operating pressure, but the overall supply was still loose. In 2025, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises hovered around the break - even point, but production willingness was not greatly affected [38] - The production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was stable at around 70% - 75%, and the daily output of coke fluctuated in the range of 62 - 670,000 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of steel mills' self - owned coking plants decreased in the second half of the year, and the daily output also declined significantly [40] - It is expected that if steel demand continues to weaken in 2026, coke over - capacity will face pressure. Due to the large base of coking production capacity, the possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and coke supply will remain rigid and relatively loose [46] IV. Double - Coking Demand Analysis 1. International Demand: Tense International Trade Situation Affects Coke Exports - In 2025, coke exports continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was about 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.0%. The main export market was Southeast Asia, accounting for 56% [48] - If overseas steel demand does not improve significantly in 2026 and competition in Southeast Asian markets intensifies, China's coke exports will still be under pressure [52] 2. Domestic Demand: Good Resilience of Downstream Rigid Demand, Weak Terminal Real Estate Demand - In 2025, the blast furnace operating rate and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills in the country were generally high. Although terminal demand was weak in the second half of the year, molten iron output still had resilience. However, from January to October, the cumulative output of pig iron and crude steel decreased slightly year - on - year [53][57] - Terminal demand was weak, mainly affected by weak domestic demand and the continuous downturn of the real estate market. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and completion area all decreased significantly year - on - year [61] - In 2026, the risk of loose supply and demand will continue. Steel mills may face phased production contraction pressure, and attention should be paid to policy support for the real estate market and the implementation of the crude steel reduction system [62][65] V. Double - Coking Inventory Analysis 1. Coking Coal: Mine - End Inventory Declined from High Levels, and Downstream Maintained Low Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the coking coal inventory structure was characterized by high mine - end inventory, stable mid - stream inventory, and low terminal inventory, which suppressed prices. In the second half, mine - end inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory structure improved [66] - The clean coal inventory of sample mines decreased in the second half of the year after reaching a high level in the first half. The inventory of sample coal washing plants was relatively stable in the second half after being gradually depleted in the first half. The inventory of downstream independent coking plants and steel mills was relatively stable in the second half after being in a state of depletion or low - level fluctuation in the first half [66][67] - Coking coal port inventory decreased in the first half and remained stable in the second half, at a medium - level in the past five years [69] 2. Coke: Coking Plant Inventory Depleted, and Steel Mill and Port Inventory Remained High - In the first half of 2025, coke inventory pressure was significant, with coking enterprise inventory reaching a high level before the Spring Festival and remaining high throughout the first half. In the second half, coking plant inventory decreased rapidly but began to accumulate in November [73] - Currently, coking plant inventory is at a medium - low level in the same period of previous years but is accumulating. Steel mill coke inventory is at a high level in the past four years, and port coke inventory is at a high level overall [75] VI. Outlook - In terms of supply in 2026, domestic coking coal supply growth is limited due to policy influence, and the increase mainly comes from imports, with Mongolian and Russian coal accounting for about 80% [79] - In terms of demand, domestic steel demand is under pressure, mainly relying on the export market for growth. The overall supply - demand pressure of coking coal and coke still exists, and prices will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy [79]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is expected to face a structural oversupply in 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a continued downward pressure on prices [1][5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the price of caustic soda fell from a peak of 3332 CNY/ton to 2098 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1234 CNY/ton, primarily due to an imbalance between capacity expansion and demand growth [1] - Domestic caustic soda production capacity increased by 210 million tons in 2025, contributing to a long-term oversupply situation [1] - The aluminum oxide industry, which accounts for 30%-40% of caustic soda demand, is expected to add approximately 11 million tons of capacity in 2025, theoretically increasing caustic soda demand by 1.2 million tons, but actual production is limited by bauxite supply constraints [1][2] - In 2026, the planned new capacity for caustic soda is about 2.19 million tons, with total domestic production expected to reach 43.86 million tons [2] - The overall demand growth for caustic soda in 2026 is projected to slow down compared to 2025 [3] Inventory and Market Pressure - By the end of 2025, caustic soda inventories exceeded 3 million tons, indicating a persistent oversupply [1] - In 2026, inventory pressure is expected to increase significantly, with most companies maintaining inventories above 450,000 tons [2] Cost Factors - The cost support for caustic soda prices is weak, with electricity and raw salt being the main cost components, accounting for 50%-60% and 25% respectively [4] - The price of liquid chlorine, which is produced alongside caustic soda, fluctuated between -650 to 275 CNY/ton in 2025, affecting the pricing dynamics of caustic soda [4] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate outdated capacity, potentially impacting caustic soda supply if effectively implemented [5][6] - The actual execution and impact of this policy remain uncertain, and its development will be crucial for the market in 2026 [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign policies improved. With the improvement of global liquidity and the stabilization of the domestic economy, the diversification effect among stocks, bonds, and commodities significantly recovered since mid - year, and the effectiveness of asset allocation increased. The overseas policy path became clearer, the Fed entered the interest - rate cut cycle, and major economies increased fiscal expansion, driving the global economy to show signs of mild recovery and supporting emerging market demand. In this context, market risk appetite recovered, and the resonance risk of assets decreased. The external environment for macro - hedging strategies improved significantly compared to the beginning of the year, and profits were achieved in the second half of the year [2]. - In 2026, the allocation cost - performance of macro - hedging strategies will increase. Risk - parity strategies have more bottom - position value in an environment where asset correlations decline, which can balance return acquisition and drawdown control. However, the market may still experience periodic fluctuations, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manager has a perfect tail - risk protection mechanism. In the pattern where asset differentiation reappears, moderately increasing the allocation of asset - rotation managers with single - asset alpha - capture ability can enhance the portfolio's return elasticity and optimize the risk - return structure [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Performance of Macro - Hedging Strategies in 2025 1.1 Review of the Performance of Risk - Parity and Asset - Rotation Strategies - The "risk - parity" index of domestic macro - hedging managers had a net value of 1.172 as of November 28, 2025. The weekly average return was 0.36%, with an annualized value of 20.29%, and the weekly volatility was 1.41%, with an annualized volatility of 10.15%. The cumulative maximum drawdown was - 4.09%, reaching the bottom in the week after April 11 (Tomb - Sweeping Festival). The "asset - rotation" index had a net value of 1.101. The weekly average return was 0.21%, with an annualized value of 11.72%, and the weekly volatility was 0.93%, with an annualized volatility of 6.67%. The cumulative maximum drawdown was - 3.73%, reaching the bottom on May 23. Overall, the performance of risk - parity strategies was better than that of asset - rotation strategies in 2025, but the volatility was also greater [6][7]. - For risk - parity macro - hedging managers, the average weekly return was positive in 30 weeks and negative in 16 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025. The highest single - week return was 5.87%, occurring in the week of May 23, mainly due to the sharp increase in gold prices, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.35%, occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. For asset - rotation macro - hedging managers, the weekly return was positive in 25 weeks and negative in 20 weeks. The highest single - week return was 2.57%, also occurring after the Spring Festival in February, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.06%, occurring in the week of November 21, following the stock decline that week [8]. - The performance of macro - hedging strategies was differentiated in the first and second halves of the year, with the second - half performance being significantly better. In the first half, due to high macro - volatility and global macro - uncertainties, the drawdown and volatility of risk - parity managers were greater than those of asset - rotation managers. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the net values of the two strategies diverged significantly. In the second half, the stock - bond bull market and the continuous strengthening of gold after the third quarter led to a significant increase in the returns of macro - hedging strategies. After September, the risk - parity strategies outperformed the asset - rotation strategies due to their passive holding of gold positions, but the overall volatility was also greater [9]. 1.2 Review of the Performance of Subjective and Quantitative Strategies - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative net value of the quantitative macro - hedging index was 1.128, and that of the subjective macro - hedging index was 1.118. The average weekly return of the quantitative macro - index was 0.27%, with a weekly volatility of 0.98% (annualized volatility of 7.06%). The average weekly return of the subjective macro - index was 0.25%, with a weekly volatility of 1.03% (annualized volatility of 7.46%). The single - week maximum return of the quantitative macro - hedging index was 3.36% on May 23, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.47% after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. The maximum single - week return of the subjective macro - hedging index was 3.00% on February 7, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.37% on November 21 [12]. - In terms of return and drawdown, the volatility of the two strategies was similar. In the market in 2025, the return differences between the two strategies were not significant, but the market conditions affecting the returns were slightly different [13]. 2. Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Market Conditions in 2025 2.1 Domestic Macro - Hedging Strategies 2.1.1 Analysis of the Correlation between Macro - Hedging Strategies and Major Asset Classes - In 2025, the negative correlation between bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. Commodities were positively correlated with stock indices, negatively correlated with bonds, and positively correlated with gold. Gold was negatively correlated with equities and had a higher correlation with bonds compared to the end of last year, indicating its status as a primary safe - haven asset. Overall, asset correlations showed further differentiation in 2025 [18]. - The weekly return of the risk - parity index had the highest correlation with the return of the gold ETF, reaching 0.453, followed by the CSI Commodity Index and the SSE 50 Index, reaching 0.441 and 0.230 respectively. So, the returns of risk - parity strategies mainly relied on gold this year. In contrast, the asset - rotation index had the highest correlation with the CSI 1000 Index, reaching 0.641, and a much higher correlation with the SSE 50 Index than the risk - parity strategies, reaching 0.628. Therefore, the returns of asset - rotation managers were more dependent on their equity exposure. The exposure of both strategies to bonds decreased compared to the first half of the year [19]. 2.1.2 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Equity Assets - In 2025, the asset - rotation strategy was more dependent on stocks for returns than the risk - parity strategy. The A - share market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of November 28, 2025, the CSI 1000 Index had a higher increase than the SSE 50 Index, with a net value of 1.304 after normalization at the beginning of the year, while the SSE 50 Index was 1.199. The weekly average return of the SSE 50 Index was 0.40%, with a volatility of 1.66% (annualized volatility of 11.96%), and the weekly average return and volatility increased compared to mid - year. The weekly average return of the CSI 1000 Index was 0.60%, with a volatility of 2.61% (annualized volatility of 18.8%), and the weekly average return increased while the volatility decreased compared to mid - year [21]. - In the first quarter, the stock market fluctuated and differentiated, with risk appetite recovering but volatility also increasing significantly. The market showed an overall upward - fluctuating trend, and the macro - hedging strategies diverged, with the risk - parity index being dragged down by bonds and commodities and performing weakly, while the asset - rotation index benefited from the growth market. In the second quarter, the market was affected by policy disturbances and trade risks, with significant fluctuations. The macro - hedging strategies also showed differentiation. In the third quarter, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the stock market rose strongly, and the macro - hedging strategies generally benefited. In the fourth quarter, the market adjusted, and the macro - hedging strategies faced drawdowns [22][23][24][25]. 2.1.3 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Treasury Bond Assets - The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the Treasury bond market had entered a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted Treasury bonds, while risk - parity strategies still held bond positions [28]. - In the first quarter, the bond market adjusted at a high level. Most macro - managers actively reduced bond durations, with risk - parity strategies slightly reducing positions and asset - rotation strategies starting to reduce or short bond assets. In the second quarter, the bond market fluctuated at a high level. In May, the risk - parity managers who held Treasury bonds achieved positive returns, while the asset - rotation managers had drawdowns. In the third quarter, the bond market was under pressure, but the macro - hedging managers were not significantly affected. In the fourth quarter, the bond market showed a short - term recovery with limited space. The risk - parity managers obtained some returns from the bond market recovery in October, while the asset - rotation managers had slightly lower returns due to their low bond allocation [28][29][30][31]. 2.1.4 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Commodity Assets - From January 3 to November 28, 2025, the normalized cumulative net value of the CSI Commodity Index was 1.087. The correlation between the risk - parity index and the CSI Commodity Index was 0.441, and that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.506. Commodities had a greater impact on asset - rotation strategies, but the correlations decreased compared to mid - year [33]. - In the first half of 2025, the commodity index trended weakly with high volatility. The asset - rotation managers with short positions in industrial products performed better. In the third quarter, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the commodity market rose and then partially corrected, and many macro - hedging strategies obtained some returns. In the fourth quarter, the commodity market consolidated, and the contribution of commodities to macro - hedging strategies was not significant, but there were some drawdowns in November [33][34][35]. 2.1.5 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Gold ETF Assets - In 2025, gold reached new highs and was one of the strongest - performing assets. The cumulative net value of the gold ETF from January 3 to November 28, 2025, was 1.588. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a much greater impact on risk - parity strategies, and the asset - rotation managers were more willing to participate in the equity market. Compared to mid - year, the correlations of both strategies with the gold ETF decreased, with the asset - rotation strategy showing a larger decrease [37]. - In the first quarter, gold fluctuated strongly. Although it contributed positively to the macro - hedging strategies, the contribution was limited due to low positions. In the second quarter, gold was supported by weak US economic data and geopolitical risks, bringing positive returns to the strategies but being partially offset by the drawdowns of equity and commodity assets. In May, gold entered an adjustment phase, and the risk - parity strategies faced relatively large drawdowns. In the third quarter, gold fluctuated and consolidated, and its contribution to the strategies was limited. In the fourth quarter, gold maintained a strong pattern. In October, the risk - parity strategies benefited significantly from the new high of gold, while the asset - rotation managers had a weaker increase in returns. In November, there were some drawdowns due to the gold price correction [38][39][40][41][42]. 2.2 Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies 2.2.1 Review of Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedging index was 1.088, with a monthly average return of 0.86% (annualized to 10.88%), a monthly volatility of 1.44% (annualized volatility of 4.97%), and a maximum monthly drawdown of - 1.10% in April. The net value of the "subjective" macro - hedging index was 1.129, with a monthly average return of 1.23% (annualized to 15.81%), a monthly volatility of 1.41% (annualized volatility of 4.90%), and a maximum drawdown of - 1.68% in March. The net value of the "quantitative" macro - hedging index was 1.159, with a monthly average return of 19.55%, a monthly volatility of 1.54% (annualized volatility of 5.35%), and a maximum drawdown of - 0.77% also in April. Overall, the quantitative macro - hedging strategy performed the best, followed by the subjective strategy, and the overall returns were similar to those in the domestic market [45][46]. 2.2.2 Analysis of the Correlation between Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies and Major Asset Classes - In 2025, from January to October, the S&P 500 and the GSCI Commodity Index had a positive correlation, while they were negatively correlated with the US Treasury bond index and New York gold. The US Treasury bond index was negatively correlated with the commodity index. The return of gold had a low correlation with stocks, bonds, and commodities, and its correlation with the S&P 500 changed from positive to negative compared to mid - 2025 [49]. - The return of the unidentified macro - hedging index had a more balanced correlation with major asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedging index had a high correlation with the S&P 500 (0.792) and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the overall performance of the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedging index also had a high correlation with the S&P 500 (0.627) and the GSCI (0.300), but a negative correlation with US Treasury bonds and gold, suggesting that its returns were also more related to the US stock market, and overseas macro - hedging managers' returns did not seem to rely much on the gold market this year [50]. 2.2.3 Review of Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies and US Assets - The S&P 500 was the asset most correlated with the subjective and quantitative macro - hedging strategies. The overseas equity market performed well in 2025, and the S&P 500 index rose by about 16.7% during the year, bringing significant returns to overseas macro - hedging strategies [52][53]. - The US Treasury bond market was mainly traded around interest - rate cut expectations. The short - term interest rates declined, while the long - term interest rates remained relatively high, resulting in a bull market in US Treasury bonds and bringing returns to some overseas macro - hedging strategies [55]. - The GSCI index was more correlated with the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedging indices and negatively correlated with the subjective macro - hedging index. The GSCI index performed weakly and was volatile, and its decline in April affected the net values of some overseas macro - hedging managers [59]. - Only the unidentified macro - hedging strategy had a positive correlation with New York gold, while the subjective and quantitative macro - hedging strategies had negative correlations. The strong performance of gold this year seemed to have a weak correlation with the returns of overseas macro - hedging strategies. Although gold reached new highs in April and October, the increase in April did not offset the losses of overseas macro - hedging strategies [62]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Judgment on Macro - Hedging Strategies in 2026 - Since the transition from mid - year to the fourth quarter, the correlation between assets has decreased significantly compared to mid - year, and the diversification effect among stocks, bonds, and commodities has gradually recovered. With the stabilization of the domestic economy and the improvement of the global liquidity environment, the three major asset classes have shown more differentiated performance, and the effectiveness of asset allocation has increased [64]. - In 2026, the overseas policy path will be clearer, with the Fed entering a continuous interest - rate cut cycle and major economies increasing fiscal expansion, driving the global economy to show signs of mild recovery. The domestic policy will focus on "anti - involution" and structural optimization. Under the improvement of the economy and liquidity, market risk appetite will recover, and the resonance risk between assets will decrease. The external environment for macro - hedging strategies will improve significantly compared to the beginning of the year [64][65]. 3.2 Investment Outlook - In 2026, the allocation value of macro - hedging strategies will increase, and the overall return cost - performance will rise. In the market environment where both gold and equities are at relatively high levels but still have continuous allocation value, macro - hedging strategies can balance return acquisition and drawdown control. Some investors are

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 successfully promotes re-inflation, corporate profits are expected to recover rapidly, providing strong momentum for the market, similar to the successful logic of supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017 [1] - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable GDP growth, increasing share of the "three new" economy (including automotive and AI industries), and marginal improvement in consumption and investment, with domestic demand becoming the core driving force [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, there is a strong correlation between A-share profits and PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing enterprises, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI is still at -2.1% year-on-year, and corporate profits are in a bottoming phase. If the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong support for the market [2] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the US stock market are raised, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, but the adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Group 3 - A risk warning is issued regarding the "policy expectation reversal risk," highlighting the potential conflict if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could challenge the assumption of continued US interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is seen as crucial for the success of the "anti-involution" policy in promoting re-inflation. If PPI turns positive year-on-year, A-shares could experience a rapid recovery in profits similar to the supply-side structural reform period, making this a key market driver [3]

Core Insights - The success of the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 could lead to a re-inflation, similar to the successful logic of the supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017, which may result in a rapid recovery of corporate profits and inject strong momentum into the market [1] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable growth with GDP growth remaining in a stable range, strengthening technology with the "three new" economy's share continuing to rise, and improving domestic demand with significant recovery expected from the low base in 2025 [1] A-Share Market Insights - A-share profitability is highly correlated with PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing firms, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI was down 2.1% year-on-year, with corporate profits in a bottoming phase; if the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong market support [2] U.S. Market Analysis - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market are noted, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, as both PE and PB ratios are at the 99th percentile historically; however, the potential adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Risk Warnings - A key risk identified is the "policy expectation reversal risk," particularly if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could conflict with the assumption of continued U.S. interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is critical as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the success of the "anti-involution" policy being pivotal for driving re-inflation and corporate profit recovery, which is essential for market momentum [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's economy continues to develop steadily, characterized by "demand decline and stable production" as of November [2] - Retail sales growth has shown a declining trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% in November, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, marking six consecutive months of marginal slowdown [8] - Service consumption remains robust, while smart economy consumption, such as smart wearables and digital consumption, exhibits high growth potential [2][8] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with the real estate market undergoing deep adjustments and construction investment growth in negative territory [15] - The average price of commercial housing in November was 9096.64 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94%, indicating a bottoming process in housing prices [16] - Industrial value-added growth remained relatively stable at 4.8% year-on-year in November, with mining and high-tech industries showing significant growth [28]

11 月经济数据整体表现和此前几个月的差异并不大：总量层面 走弱，供强需弱的结构性问题仍然存在。具体来看：1）9-10 月 公布的增量稳增长政策相对有限，而在前期政策效力逐渐退 坡、反内卷政策逐渐推进、财政资金向民生、化债、科技等领 域倾斜、部分房企信用风险上升等多种因素的影响下，1-11 月 固投累计增速为-2.6%，前值为-1.7%。2）居民消费意愿并不强 劲，而以旧换新政策效力下降、"双十一"前置透支部分消费 需求，社零增速录得 1.3%，前值为 2.9%。3）虽然内需较弱且 反内卷政策仍在推进，但外需韧性较强，工业生产是相对稳定 的。11 月工增当月同比录得 4.8%，前值为 4.9%。 经济数据边际变化不大，整体乏善可陈，市场更为关注后续稳 增长政策的力度以及节奏。中央经济工作会议提出"推动投资 止跌回稳"，稳增长目标的权重正在上升，不过也要注意，稳 增长政策的力度应是相对温和的，其会搭配调结构政策共同推 出。考虑到明年初经济指标存在高基数问题，且近期出台的增 量政策也相对有限，今年末明年初或有部分行业性政策逐渐落 地，且 9-10 月部分稳增长政策对应的实物工作量也应向明年倾 斜，服务消费和投资或 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **OPEC Strategy**: OPEC announced a pause in production increases in Q4 2025 and plans to continue this in Q1 2026, which is better than market expectations and helps support oil prices above $65 per barrel [1][2][9]. - **Refining Industry**: The refining sector has been at a low point since 2022, with some products experiencing long-term losses. A potential upcycle is expected in the next 3-5 years, contingent on the balance sheets of China and global markets [1][3]. - **Coal Market**: The coal market is expected to see a price center higher than in 2025, with a lower limit of 700 RMB/ton and a potential high of around 850 RMB/ton, indicating that the bottom has passed for thermal coal [1][5]. - **Natural Gas Market**: Significant changes in the natural gas market have been noted, with the Henry Hub price rising and the price gap between the US and Europe narrowing, which requires further monitoring [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Market Outlook for 2026**: A relatively optimistic view is held for the oil market in 2026, with expectations for contract prices to remain at $65 or above. The market is seen as bottoming out despite some supply pressures [2][12]. - **Predictions on Supply and Demand**: Global oil supply is expected to increase in 2026, with OPEC potentially halting production increases. The US shale oil production remains resilient, contributing to a projected supply increase of about 1.6 million barrels per day [12][14]. - **Demand Growth**: Demand growth for oil is forecasted at around 1 million barrels per day, with varying predictions from major institutions [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Strategic Reserves**: China has engaged in significant strategic reserve replenishment in 2025 and shows a strong intent to continue this, with plans to increase storage capacity by 170 million barrels [10][11]. - **Refining Sector Dynamics**: The refining industry is expected to see a shift towards more profitable products like aromatics, while ethylene and propylene markets are anticipated to improve around 2027 [3][19][25]. - **Impact of Policies**: Anti-involution policies are limiting new capacity in the petrochemical sector, while older facilities are being phased out, which may have a limited impact on actual capacity reduction [18]. - **International Market Influence**: The overseas refined oil market is tightening, which is expected to support the demand for aromatics and other petrochemical products [24][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the energy and petrochemical industries.