1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded steadily. The market's dovish bets on the interest - rate cut path increased, the US dollar was weak, and non - ferrous metals such as copper and tin strengthened, driving up the lead price. The supply - demand tension of lead ore is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the cost side supports the lead price. Although the production of some refineries recovered in November, there were more refinery overhauls in December, and the production of primary and recycled lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The terminal consumption is divided, with the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakening, but the consumption of automobile starting batteries improving, and large - and medium - sized battery enterprises starting year - end stockpiling. Overall, the macro - environment is warm, the fundamentals are marginally improved, and social inventories have dropped to a new low for the year, supporting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, but the rebound space is restricted by the import expectation of lead ingots, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,500 yuan/ton [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 11/28 | 12/5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,090 | 17,290 | 200 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1,981 | 2,009 | 28 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.63 | 8.61 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 37,799 | 34,735 | - 3,064 | tons | | LME Inventory | 263,175 | 243,550 | - 19,625 | tons | | Social Inventory | 3.07 | 2.36 | - 0.71 | 10,000 tons | | Spot Premium | - 65 | - 65 | 0 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai lead PB2601 contract rebounded steadily, breaking through the moving - average pressure and finally closing at 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The LME lead price also rebounded slightly, closing at 2,009 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41%. In the spot market, the supply of lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was limited, and most of the lead ingots were from refineries. The supply of lead in the East China region was tight, and the mainstream origin quoted a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. The recycled lead refineries were more willing to sell, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchased through long - term contracts [5]. - As of December 5, the LME weekly inventory was 243,550 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,625 tons. The SHFE inventory was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, the SMM five - region social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons from Monday and 11,400 tons from Thursday of the previous week. As the delivery of the current - month contract approaches, some goods holders may transfer their inventory for delivery, and the social inventory is expected to stabilize [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of December 5, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with the average values remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - In November, the electrolytic lead production was 327,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 323,400 tons in December. The recycled refined lead production in November was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 290,300 tons in December [8]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][13][15].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw materials may accelerate its decline. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and poor terminal demand, multiple short - term negatives are suppressing the price. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Crude Oil - There are more positive factors in the news of the short - term crude oil market, and the oil price is generally strong. However, the main logic of the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the rebound space of the oil price is limited. It is expected that the short - term Brent oil will fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Although the inventory has decreased in stages, the over - supply problem still exists, and the demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. - Glass: In the short - term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the demand will shrink, and the price will be under pressure [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply pressure remains, and the demand is lackluster. It is expected to continue the range - bound operation and maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [7]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases, but the profit is weak. The traditional downstream demand is supported, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. The price is currently weak [8][9]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply and demand both increase, and the overall valuation is neutral to low. - LLDPE: The supply increases, and attention should be paid to the basis repair near the delivery [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand support is limited, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. The price drive is weak. - Styrene: The supply pressure eases, the supply - demand structure improves, but the upward space is limited due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand [16]. Urea - The daily production increases, the inventory decreases, and the orders increase. The overall supply - demand situation shows certain changes [17]. LPG - The price of LPG futures and spot shows a certain decline, the inventory decreases, and the downstream PDH start - up rate increases slightly [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The short - term drive is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve, but the absolute price increase is restricted by the oil price. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is tight, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to continue to explore the bottom. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is compressed. - Polyester bottle - chip: The supply - demand is loose, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [20]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, etc. [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The tire production and export decreased, and the natural rubber import decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, and the出库 rate and入库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, and the basis changed [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts changed, and the reference basis changed [6]. - **Volume**: The start - up rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased significantly [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and different contracts changed, and the spreads changed [7]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China increased, and the export profit increased significantly [7]. - **PVC Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The overseas quotes of PVC decreased, and the export profit decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Start - up Rate & Industry Profit**: The start - up rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of PVC increased. The profits of different production processes changed [7]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the start - up rate of the printing and dyeing industry decreased [7]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PVC downstream products decreased slightly, and the pre - sales volume decreased slightly [7]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social Inventory & Factory Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in different regions increased [7]. Methanol - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [8]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol decreased [8]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [9]. Polyolefins - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased [14]. - **Futures Contract Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of LLDPE and PP changed [14]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the social inventory of PE decreased slightly [14]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [14]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Benzene - Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The prices of benzene - styrene futures and spot changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [16]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of urea futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [17]. - **Main Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of the main futures contracts changed [17]. - **Raw Material and Spot Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea changed [17]. LPG - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **LPG Outer - market Price**: The outer - market prices of LPG increased [18]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery inventory ratio, port inventory, and port inventory ratio of LPG decreased [18]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG changed [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, and ethylene changed [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [20]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PX and its spreads changed [20]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA and its spreads changed [20]. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: The prices of MEG and its spreads changed [20]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased slightly. However, the overall surplus and the expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply may still drag down nickel prices. It is not recommended to short at low levels, and short - selling opportunities at high levels can be considered, combined with options for risk protection [4]. - Stainless steel: The supply and demand are in a double - weak state, but the cost provides a certain support. It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [5]. - Industrial silicon: The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price may rise slightly due to environmental protection news in Xinjiang, but the upside space is limited [28][33]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weakening, and the market sentiment is bearish. The price fluctuation is expected to increase next week. It is recommended to wait and see [28][34]. - Lithium carbonate: The price is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the destocking speed will slow down. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio [62][64]. - Palm oil: It is waiting for the confirmation of the price bottom based on the production reduction in Malaysia in December. If the production is successfully reduced, the price may rise in the first quarter [100][101]. - Soybean oil: The short - term rebound of US soybeans is limited. It is recommended to hold a small long position during the short - term rebound of palm oil and wait for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][103]. - Soybean meal: If there is no unexpected positive news, the price is expected to be weak, following the trend of US soybeans [112][116]. - Soybean: The spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak due to the rumor of state - reserve sales [112][116]. - Corn: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [130][135]. - Sugar: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [157][159]. - Cotton: The upward trend has slowed down. The ICE cotton is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [187][203]. - Live pigs: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [206][208]. - Peanuts: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [218][219]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the supply - demand relationship has changed. The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak, but the cost provides support [4][5]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The inventory of refined nickel and stainless steel has changed. For example, the LME nickel inventory has decreased, and the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased slightly [6][8]. - **Market News**: There are various news, such as the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of subsidies for Russian nickel imports in China, and the potential production reduction in Indonesia's nickel wet - process projects [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has also declined [28]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon has been accumulating. The supply of industrial silicon may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The supply of polysilicon is expected to be slightly reduced, and the demand has declined [29][30][31]. - **Future Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly due to environmental protection news, but the upside is limited. The price fluctuation of polysilicon is expected to increase [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate have declined [62]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the destocking speed is slowing down [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and upstream enterprises are recommended to increase the hedging ratio [64][67]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views**: Palm oil was in a range - bound state, and soybean oil was following the trend of the oil sector [100]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil's short - term rebound is limited, and it is recommended to hold a small long position [101][103]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Previous Week's Situation**: The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybeans have declined. The spot price of soybeans is strong, while the futures price is weak [112]. - **Next Week's Forecast**: If there is no positive news, the prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to be weakly oscillating [116]. Corn - **Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn have risen. The supply and demand situation has changed, and the inventory of corn starch has increased [130][131][134]. - **Market Outlook**: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [135]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international and domestic sugar prices have declined. The production and consumption of major sugar - producing countries have changed [157][158]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [159]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The prices of ICE cotton, Zhengzhou cotton, and cotton yarn have changed [190]. - **Fundamentals**: The export data of US cotton is not ideal. The domestic cotton price has risen, and the downstream situation is deteriorating [191][196][198]. - **Operation Suggestions**: ICE cotton may be supported at 63 - 64 cents/pound. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [203]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs has oscillated, and the futures price has been weakly oscillating [206]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price may be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [207][208]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [218]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [219].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-05 沙特下调1⽉对亚洲的OSP价格，原油 震荡化⼯偏弱 俄乌谈判进展缓慢，原油价格延续震荡整理。当前乌克兰谈判代表将 在佛罗里达州举行新一轮会谈，而俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国支持的和平 计划中部分内容"不可接受"，这一最新信号表明短期内冲突结束的可能 性极低。同时，特朗普再次重申，"很快"将开始在委内瑞拉境内打击贩 毒集团，美军已在该地区集结兵力。原油中期格局趋弱，短期受到地缘不 确定性的支撑，仍将延续震荡整理。未来的变量可能在于俄乌谈判的达 成，或者是俄罗斯贴水持续回落后买盘的回归。沙特下调了1月对亚洲的O SP价格，该举措通常被认为是对需求偏弱的确认或是抢占市场份额。 板块逻辑： 美国天然气期货价格在周三升至35个月高位，LNG出口工厂的流入量 创下纪录高位，且天气预报显示气温将下降，天然气的上涨带动了乙烷价 格的走高。乙烷是乙烯和乙二醇的重要原料，乙烷的走高，乙烯和乙二醇 价格的走弱，当前乙烷裂解的利润快速下滑，这有可能影响后期美国乙二 醇的生产。美国是排在沙特后面的第二大乙二醇出口国，占全球乙二醇出 口比例 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability amid a backdrop of reduced production and inventory challenges, with expectations of limited demand in the near term [1][2][3] Pricing - As of December 4, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is 12,700 yuan/ton, and the price in Foshan is 12,650 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [1] Raw Materials - The nickel market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling prior orders, while new tenders have not yet commenced in northern mines [1][3] - In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price has decreased by 0.52-0.91 USD per wet ton, with mainstream domestic premiums maintaining at +26 [1][3] - Nickel-iron prices continue to decline, with major steel mills' new tenders dropping to a low of 880 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][3] Production and Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - Overall production cuts by steel mills are limited, although year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Recent social inventory reduction has been sluggish, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10,400 tons [2] - As of December 4, stainless steel futures inventory stands at 62,157 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,316 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen slight price increases, with stable mainstream prices in Wuxi and Foshan, while traders focus on digesting existing inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows weak ADP employment data, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, alongside a boost in infrastructure investment expectations due to the issuance of additional government bonds [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction, leading to a general reluctance to stockpile [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation within the price range of 12,300 to 12,700 yuan/ton, with attention on the execution of production cuts by steel mills and nickel-iron prices [3]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced due to port back - flow and trans - shipment, but the subsequent port pressure remains due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of port olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. - **Urea**: The market continues to fluctuate higher. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have improved short - term demand, and the overall supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is expected to build a bottom in a fluctuating manner, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is weakly falling. The flood in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand is receding, and the subsequent bullish factors are decreasing. The inventory of exchange RU is low, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It temporarily follows macro - fluctuations. A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [11][13][14]. - **PVC**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level, and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, but the supply is high, and the demand is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. In the face of a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [14][16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still ample, and the styrene inventory in ports is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18][19]. - **Polyethylene**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may have bottomed out the oil price. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21][22]. - **Polypropylene**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and an expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [23][25]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, while the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans and a low load. The PTA processing fee is under pressure, and PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [25][26]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be stable due to the gradual repair of processing fees, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December due to large - scale accidental maintenance, and the import volume will slightly decrease, so the inventory accumulation rate at ports may slow down. However, in the medium - term, the supply is expected to be high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 3.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.73% increase, at 452.60 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.57 million barrels to 427.50 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; SPR replenished by 0.25 million barrels to 411.67 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels to 214.42 million barrels, a 2.15% increase; diesel inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels to 114.29 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 22.89 million barrels, a 0.09% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.61 million barrels to 43.95 million barrels, a 1.41% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, the price in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 15 yuan to 2113 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 96 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 1688 yuan, the basis was + 2, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 57 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell weakly. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, and the exchange RU inventory was low. The fundamentals had little driving force and temporarily followed macro - fluctuations. The tire factory operating rate was weak. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a 2.3 - ton increase, a 2.1% increase [11][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 41 yuan to 4500 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 yuan/ton (down 40), the basis was - 40 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 282 (down 9). The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. The factory inventory was 32.3 tons (+ 0.7), and the social inventory was 104.3 tons (+ 1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price increased, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 tons to 16.42 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6776 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6820 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 16 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.93 tons to 45.4 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.33 tons to 4.71 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6359 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6410 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.75 tons to 54.63 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.29 tons to 20.05 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 6.53 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 417 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan narrowing [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 2 yuan to 6870 yuan, the PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 845 dollars, and the basis was - 17 yuan (- 61). The 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (unchanged). The PX load in China was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; the Asian load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas South Korea GS 550,000 - ton plant reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. In November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 390,000 tons, a 35,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a 48,000 - ton month - on - month increase [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 6 yuan to 4724 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 32 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan (- 4). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 28 was 2.173 million tons, a 58,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan to 171 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 194 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 4 yuan to 3826 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 18 yuan to 3822 yuan, the basis was - 7 yuan (- 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 94 yuan (+ 10). The ethylene glycol load was 72.9%, a 0.2% decrease, of which the syngas - based load was 72.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.1%, a 0.6% decrease. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 161,000 tons, and the East China departure on December 3 was 600 tons. The port inventory was 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].