Key Points by Commodity Gold - US government shutdown continues, but with Sino-US relations easing and the US potentially pausing tariff measures, risk aversion weakens. The rising US dollar index is negative for gold. Gold may experience high-level oscillations in the medium term. Monitor the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] 纯碱 - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable at 1,269 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 757,600 tons, a 2.3% increase. Total inventory is 1.702 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.01%. The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with some plant shutdowns reducing supply. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1,200. It is recommended to wait and see or consider short - term long positions on dips [1] Iron Ore - From October 27th to November 2nd, global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons to 3.2138 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 166,700 tons to 2.7592 million tons. Supply is becoming more abundant in the near - term, while demand is weakening due to production cuts in Tangshan. There is a possibility of production resumption this week. Port inventory is still increasing, and steel mills' inventory has decreased significantly, with a potential for accelerated restocking. Ore prices are expected to decline further, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [3] Rebar - On November 4th, domestic steel prices continued to fall. In November, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance and production cuts, and environmental restrictions are in place in the north. As the market enters the off - season, supply and demand are both expected to weaken. Raw material prices are under pressure, and steel mills are on the verge of profitability. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4] Manganese Silico - The national average capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 43.28%, a 0.09% increase from last week. Daily output increased by 655 tons to 29,830 tons. The cost of manganese ore may have limited upward potential. Demand for manganese silico is expected to weaken as steel production may decline in the future. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure persists. The price of manganese silico may not have strong upward momentum in the short term [5] Palm Oil - Last week, the narrowing price gap between soybean oil and palm oil led to increased purchases of palm oil, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 555,000 tons. The market expects an increase in palm oil inventory in Malaysia in October, which is negative for palm oil prices. Palm oil is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] Rapeseed Meal - As of November 1st, the weekly operating rate of domestic rapeseed processing enterprises increased by 0.49 percentage points to 1.47%. Weekly rapeseed crushing volume increased by 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons. There is an expectation of zero processing volume this week. Supply shortages reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to take long positions at low prices and monitor Sino - Canadian trade policies [6] Live Pigs - On November 4th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% to 18.02 yuan/kg. The high - priced pork has low acceptance from consumers, and the number of second - fattening pigs has decreased. As enterprises resume normal slaughter, pig prices are expected to decline slowly in the short term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs shows a weak technical pattern, and farmers can consider hedging according to their slaughter plans [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On November 5th, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation, which is an equal - amount roll - over. The loose money supply is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the medium term, but trading is becoming more difficult [7] Silver - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%. The rising US dollar index due to positive Sino - US trade relations is putting pressure on precious metals. Silver is expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the long term, with limited downward space [8] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in Northwest China decreased by 8,500 tons to 23,900 tons. The market price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,082 yuan/ton. Production capacity utilization increased by 1.09 percentage points to 86.73%. Port inventory decreased slightly, while enterprise inventory increased. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2,145. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn polypropylene decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 6,536 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization increased by 0.61 percentage points to 78.62%. Commercial inventory decreased by 51,300 tons to 874,000 tons. Supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream orders have improved slightly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6,570. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10] Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.52 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. China and Russia agreed to cooperate in the standardization of the oil and gas industry. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and may ease slightly in the first quarter of next year [11] PX - This week, domestic PTA production increased by 44,800 tons to 1.4503 million tons. Capacity utilization increased by 2.40 percentage points to 78.38%. Social inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 3.1356 million tons. The restart of previously shut - down PTA plants has increased supply, and the market is expected to have a slight inventory build - up. PX prices are under pressure, and the overall fundamentals of PTA are weak [11] Rubber - In Thailand, cup - lump prices decreased, while latex prices increased. From January to September, global natural rubber production increased by 2.3%, while consumption decreased by 1.5%. Indonesia's exports to China increased significantly. China's rubber inventory is at a low level, and raw material prices are expected to be firm. However, tire enterprises are facing shipment pressure, and some plan to reduce production in November. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded after opening low. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when prices fall to around 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating downward. In November, the supply pressure decreases, but the demand also declines. The market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips when prices return to the lower end of the range. Options can sell put options around 50,000 to earn premiums. For the equity side, buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks. Also, pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious oversupply. The market is bearish in the long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds. For glass, there is a short - term emotional impact on the market, and mid - to long - term supply pressure remains. In November, there is still a demand expectation during the peak season. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. Look for short - term long opportunities on rebounds [4]. Logs - Log futures prices are oscillating weakly. Although the supply of arrivals is increasing, downstream orders are insufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets provides cost support. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the cost side strongly supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weakening, and dark - colored rubber has shown an inflection point in inventory accumulation. If raw material supply increases smoothly, rubber prices may decline further, with a possible range of 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 8.00% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 2.33%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 16.67%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 100.00%, and 2603 - 2604 increased by 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons, Yunnan's decreased by 9.60% to 5.38 million tons, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.91% to 5.19 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29% to 20.96 million tons, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. Industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.28% to 10.81 million tons, Yunnan's increased by 1.47% to 3.46 million tons, and Sichuan's remained unchanged at 2.52 million tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 55.80 million tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.31% to 23.08 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.38% to 32.72 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 8.29%. The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon cells, and related components remained unchanged [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 0.61%. The spreads of consecutive months showed different degrees of change, such as the spread of the current month - the first - consecutive month decreased by 6.62% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.33% to 14.24 million tons, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, imports increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons, exports decreased by 28.16% to 0.21 million tons, and net exports decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons. Silicon wafer production increased by 2.71% to 60.65 million tons, imports decreased by 17.96% to 0.04 million tons, exports remained unchanged at 0.67 million tons, and net exports increased by 1.96% to 0.63 million tons. Silicon wafer demand decreased by 2.79% to 69.63 million tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16% to 26.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.49% to 18.93 million tons. Polysilicon contracts remained unchanged at 9,590 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased. The 05 basis increased by 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%, weekly production decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 16.13 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84% to 88,540 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.50% to 19.50 yuan [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 6,579 million tons, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 170.20 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% [4]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices decreased. The prices of main benchmark delivery items in the spot market remained unchanged. The 11 - 01 spread and 11 - 03 spread changed, and the 01 contract basis increased [5]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 7.50 yuan [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 13.99% to 176.6 million cubic meters. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54.0. The total inventory in major ports increased by 1.41% to 288.00 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume decreased by 2% to 6.28 million cubic meters [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber remained unchanged, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 2.30%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.01%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 229.63%. The prices of cup rubber, glue, and other raw materials remained unchanged [7]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.57%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.57%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's August production decreased by 0.43% to 458.80 thousand tons, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30% to 189.00 thousand tons, India's increased by 11.11% to 50.00 thousand tons, and China's increased by 12.20 thousand tons. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly. August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.4 million pieces. September tire exports decreased by 10.65% to 5,630.0 million pieces. August natural rubber imports increased by 14.41% to 59.59 million tons, and September imports increased by 12.12% to 74.00 million tons. The production cost of Thai dry rubber decreased, and the production margin increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.57% to 44,668 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 4.73% to 44,655 tons. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general trade increased [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, production increased, but the total inventory declined slowly. Hot-rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are likely to turn into a volatile trend [2]. - In the iron ore market, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their peak, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak has suppressed the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. After the macro positive factors are realized, the futures prices face correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,079 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day and 0.68% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day and 0.12% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and up 0.31% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.60% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 212.59 million tons, up 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production was 323.56 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,077.08 million tons, down 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory was 430.81 million tons, down 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 million tons, down 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was 916.4 million tons, up 2.65% from last week; the apparent demand for rebar was 232.18 million tons, up 2.73% from last week; the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 331.89 million tons, up 1.58% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a correction [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 782.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.19% from the previous day and 0.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.51% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Global iron ore shipments declined from the peak, and the port inventory increased during the consumption peak. Steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to correct before buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 33.141 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 32.184 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.859 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.9 billion tons [7]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.745 billion tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.667 billion tons [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.05 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 310,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline slightly [7].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) prices have declined unexpectedly after the traditional peak demand season, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand and falling oil prices, leading the industry into a state of overall losses [1][5][11] Demand and Supply Analysis - The traditional peak demand season, known as "Golden September and Silver October," did not exhibit significant characteristics this year, with the global economic downturn impacting PP's essential demand [1][9] - In September, domestic plastic product output was 7.303 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54%, marking two consecutive months of decline [1] - BOPP demand has shown limited improvement, with downstream sectors such as e-commerce, food packaging, and clothing packaging underperforming expectations, resulting in a 15% year-on-year decrease in orders for injection molding enterprises [3] - The PP industry is experiencing severe oversupply, with many companies, particularly PDH enterprises, reducing production or shutting down due to losses, which may help alleviate inventory pressure [9][11] Price and Profitability Trends - Oil prices have significantly dropped, with WTI crude oil falling from $78 per barrel to $55 per barrel, a nearly 30% decline, which has negatively impacted chemical products, including PP [5] - As of early November, the losses for various PP production methods are as follows: oil-based PP at 550 yuan/ton, coal-based PP at 300 yuan/ton, methanol-based PP at 1000 yuan/ton, propylene-based PP at 250 yuan/ton, and PDH-based PP at 800 yuan/ton [5] - The overall profitability of PP has been compressed, with the industry entering a comprehensive loss state [5][11] Production and Operational Insights - The PP maintenance season primarily occurs from April to July, with a notable increase in operating rates post-August, reaching over 85%. However, unplanned maintenance has led to a decline in operating rates below 85% in September and further down to 80% by the end of October, nearing historical lows [6][9] - The expansion of PP production capacity has mainly occurred in the first half of the year, resulting in limited market impact from new capacities in the second half, thus alleviating supply pressure [9][10] Trade Dynamics - In September, China's polypropylene imports reached 290,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 17.49%, while cumulative imports from January to September totaled 2.4578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.01% [10] - Conversely, September's polypropylene exports were 237,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.88%, with cumulative exports from January to September amounting to 2.3411 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.27% [10] - The changing import-export dynamics have somewhat alleviated domestic supply-demand imbalances, with some months seeing higher export volumes than imports, indicating a potential shift from a net importer to a net exporter of PP [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The propylene market is under pressure, and the pattern of high supply and weak demand is difficult to change. In the absence of strong cost pull and significant improvement in demand, the market drive will return more to fundamental logic. The follow - up needs to closely monitor OPEC+ production policies, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and changes in downstream demand [3][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the center of propylene prices moved down overall. The propylene futures 2601 contract fell below 6,000 yuan/ton on October 21. After the National Day, the supply increased due to the restart of PDH units, and the cost support of PDH - made propylene weakened. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US led to a rebound in international oil prices and drove up propylene prices. However, high supply and inventory suppressed the price, and it dropped at the end of the month [2]. - In October, the average load of domestic propylene units was 78.47%, an increase of 1.34% compared to September. Although some units were under maintenance, the overall load remained high. The production in September decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.52 million tons compared to August, and it was expected to rebound in October. The demand was weak due to the low operating rate of polypropylene, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [8]. 2. Market Outlook - Supply side: OPEC+ is expected to maintain a small increase in production, which may lead to a long - term supply surplus of global crude oil. Domestic propylene load is expected to remain at a high level of about 78%, and the restart of large - scale units in November and December will further increase supply [3][27][52]. - Cost side: The cost support may show a differentiated trend. The long - term supply surplus of crude oil may make the support of oil - based cost unstable. The seasonal increase in propane's combustion demand in winter may support CP prices and slow down the decline of PDH process costs, but its impact on propylene prices depends on downstream acceptance [3][52]. - Demand side: The recovery of demand is not optimistic. The operating rate of polypropylene, the largest downstream product, remains low, and the poor profit situation of most downstream derivative industries is difficult to improve in the short term [3][52]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Consolidation in a range [5][53]. - Arbitrage: 1 - 2 reverse spread [5][53]. - Options: Double - selling options [5][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and the warming of macro - sentiment, but consumption demand has entered the off - season, and it is difficult for subsequent apparent demand to rebound. It is expected that the finished steel will fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals" in the short term. With supply remaining high, port inventories accumulating, and demand suppressed by shrinking steel mill profits and falling hot metal production, coupled with the strong coking coal squeezing profits, the upside space for iron ore prices is limited [20]. - Policy on checking over - production and safety production restricts the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with the upcoming winter storage inventory transfer, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be relatively limited. If the supply of coking coal continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to - late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry is expected to move up [33]. - After the landing of macro - sentiment, ferroalloys return to their fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side below. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [49]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, with strong expectations for thermal coal and the current low and stable salt price (no trend - like increase has been seen), the valuation has no upward elasticity without production cuts. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and daily melting remains stable. The overall rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy soda balance remains in surplus. In September, soda ash exports exceeded 180,000 tons, which met expectations and continued to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash, but the cost support below limits the downward space [60]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment in the short term. However, with the arrival of the off - season and high inventory in the mid - stream, it is rationally considered that the impact is limited and needs to be observed. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract has reached a new high, and the game may continue until near the delivery. There are still structural contradictions in glass. Without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract glass will eventually decline, but the realization path may wait until near the delivery. In the long - term, there is cost support and policy expectations [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3079, 3145, and 3168 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3295, 3304, and 3324 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar and hot - rolled coil month - spreads remained mostly unchanged compared to October 31, 2025 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - On October 31, 2025, the rebar summary price in China was 3265 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou remained stable compared to October 30. The basis of different rebar contracts in Shanghai and Beijing also showed certain changes. For hot - rolled coil, prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang had some fluctuations, and the basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on November 3, 2025, remaining unchanged compared to October 31 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On November 3, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 782.5, 760.5, and 740.5 respectively, showing a decline compared to October 31. The basis of each contract increased, and the prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao such as PB powder, Carajás fines, and Super Special also had some changes [21]. - **Fundamental Data** - In late October 2025, daily average hot metal production decreased, 45 - port desilting volume increased, global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, 45 - port arrivals increased significantly, 45 - port inventory increased, 247 - steel mill inventory decreased, and the available days of 247 steel mills decreased [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian 5 remained unchanged, and the basis of different coking coal types and contracts had certain changes. For coke, the warehouse - receipt cost and basis of different regions and contracts also changed, and the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed some fluctuations [34][37]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of different types of coking coal such as Anze low - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 coal showed different trends, and the prices of different types of coke such as Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke also had some changes. The import profits of different countries' coking coal and the export profit of coke also changed [38][39]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On November 3, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts showed certain changes. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and steam coal remained stable [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On October 31, 2025, the basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, and the month - spreads of different contracts changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou had some fluctuations, and the prices of raw materials such as ores and chemical coke remained stable [52]. Soda Ash - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts also changed, and the basis of heavy soda in Shahe and Qinghai remained unchanged [61]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads** - The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions such as North China, South China, and East China remained stable on November 3, 2025, and the spreads between heavy and light soda ash in different regions also remained unchanged [62][64]. Glass - **Disk Prices and Spreads** - On November 3, 2025, the prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased compared to October 31. The month - spreads of different contracts changed, and the basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also had some changes [87]. - **Daily Sales and Production** - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different trends [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, China-US talks, the Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations. The cost side provides short-term support at the bottom, but due to insufficient supply-demand improvements, upward pressure remains high. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6900, while the PP main contract is expected to weaken with support at 6600. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - Plastics still have supply-demand contradictions and are expected to move in a sideways pattern [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to weaken in the short term [51] Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,899 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.55%. The average price of LDPE was 9,136.67 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.92%. The average price of HDPE was 7,650 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,421.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.70%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 522.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31.68%. The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178) [12] Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178), the 5-9 month spread was -53 yuan/ton (-39), and the 9-1 month spread was 128 yuan/ton (+217) [19] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various polyethylene products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [20][21] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PE was -357 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the profit of coal-based PE was 201 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous month [28] - **Supply**: The production start-up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 80.86%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 643,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.71%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week, with a maintenance loss of 112,100 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from last week [33] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some still under construction [36] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple polyethylene production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [38] - **Demand**: The overall start-up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.53%, an increase of 16.67% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE packaging film was 51.30%, a decrease of 1.07% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged from the end of last month [39] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.5%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level. The difference between the high-pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 8.8%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level [43] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.38% [45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,706 lots, a decrease of 30 lots from the end of last month [48] PP Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 262 yuan/ton from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.82% [52] Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene products showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [54][56] - **Basis**: On October 31, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,723.33 yuan/ton (-2.84). The PP basis was 133 yuan/ton (+65), and the basis widened. The 1-5 month spread was -40 yuan/ton (-19), and the month spread narrowed [58] - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -84 yuan/ton (-128), the 5-9 month spread was -19 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9-1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (+213) [63] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [68] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PP was -606.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.03 yuan/ton from the end of last month, and the profit of coal-based PP was -269.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 607.60 yuan/ton from the end of last month [73] - **Supply**: The start-up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 77.06%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 789,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.48%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 78,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [77] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [80] - **Demand**: The average start-up rate of downstream industries this week was 52.61% (+0.30). The start-up rate of plastic weaving was 44.20% (-0.20%), the start-up rate of BOPP was 61.57% (+0.16%), the start-up rate of injection molding was 59.06% (+0.72%), and the start-up rate of pipes was 36.807% (-0.07%) [82] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was -$337.83 per ton, an increase of $208.99 from last month, and the export profit was -$31.12 per ton, a decrease of $23.89 from last month [87] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 595,100 tons (-6.80%); the inventory of the two major state-owned oil companies decreased by 9.19% month-on-month, the inventory of traders decreased by 2.91% month-on-month, and the port inventory decreased by 2.25% month-on-month [90] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,569 lots, an increase of 471 lots from the end of last month [103]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]