Group 1 - The story of a customer in Hangzhou who invested 1.5 million yuan in gold when the price was 600 yuan per gram highlights the potential for significant returns in the gold market [1] - The current market shows a stark contrast where the number of new gold buyers is low, but the volume of gold being sold back has increased two to three times [1][3] - The rising gold prices have shifted the perception of gold from a safe haven to a high-risk investment, leading to increased selling activity and a breakdown in market balance [3][5] Group 2 - Investor sentiment has dramatically changed, with many now looking to cash out due to fears of potential price drops, indicating a shift towards a more cautious approach [5][7] - The volatility in gold prices reflects broader economic uncertainties, with the demand for safe assets driving prices higher amidst global instability [8][10] - The current dynamics of the gold market suggest that future fluctuations are likely, making it essential for investors to manage risks effectively [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals include the suspension of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine due to an accident, exacerbating the shortage of copper mines, with negative processing fees (TC) and raw - material - constrained smelting capacity; the opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and a weaker US dollar, boosting copper prices with loose liquidity expectations; Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing market panic and suppressing risk appetite; and the decline in spot premiums, with downstream buyers being cautious due to high prices and weaker - than - expected post - holiday restocking [4]. - The view is that Shanghai copper will fluctuate at a high level, with both supply and demand being weak but having strong support. The shortage at the mine end and macro - level positives support the price, while trade risks and demand limit the upside. Short - term fluctuations will intensify [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Futures盘面Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 84,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.77%, a position of 215,573 lots (down 542 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 121,050 lots [6]. - The latest price of the Shanghai copper index - weighted is 84,341 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, a position of 546,240 lots (down 18,430 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 255,805 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 74,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.85%, a position of 4,498 lots (down 311 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 8,239 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 10,624 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 239,014 lots (down 38,282 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 19,917 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 498.35 dollars, with a weekly decline of 3.04%, a position of 135,104 lots (down 8,882 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 41,836 lots [6]. b. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 84,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,905 yuan and a decline rate of 2.2% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 84,835 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,840 yuan and a decline rate of 2.12% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 84,910 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,780 yuan and a decline rate of 2.05% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 84,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,830 yuan and a decline rate of 2.11% [11]. - The Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 175% [11]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 45 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 200% [11]. - The Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1000% [11]. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is 115 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 130% [11]. - The LME copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 11.16 dollars/ton, up 13.74 dollars week - on - week, with a decline rate of 55.18% [11]. - The LME copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 127.75 dollars/ton, up 33.58 dollars week - on - week, with a growth rate of 35.66% [11]. c. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 1,122.08 yuan/ton, up 44.79 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 3.84% [12]. - The copper concentrate TC is - 40.7 dollars/ton, with no change week - on - week [12]. - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0548, down 0.0566 week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.38% [12]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 2,995.96 yuan/ton, down 503.08 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 14.38% [12]. d. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 42,849 tons, up 12,885 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 43% [17]. - The total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,518 tons, up 7,425 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 104.68% [17]. - The Shanghai copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.5% [17]. - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 129,900 tons, down 1,150 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 0.88% [17]. - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 7,550 tons, down 875 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 10.39% [20]. - The LME copper inventory is 137,450 tons, down 2,025 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.45% [20]. - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 153,604 tons, up 1,167 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.77% [20]. - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 191,048 tons, up 5,326 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.87% [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory is 344,652 tons, up 6,493 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.92% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 50.9 million tons, up 2.9 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 6.04% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.04% [20]. e. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative production was 9.891 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative production was 16.598 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. f. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 65.23%, up 2.21 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.85 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 25.37%, up 0.56 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.53 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips was 66.24%, up 1.52 percentage points month - on - month and down 6.95 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 50.9%, up 1.04 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.52 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 59.44%, down 3.11 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.58 percentage points year - on - year [25]. g. Copper Element Import (Monthly) - In September 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.586873 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 22.663614 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of anode copper was 61,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 18%, and the cumulative import was 528,637 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import was 2,206,092 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In September 2025, the import of copper products was 485,105.381 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative import was 4,018,617.9 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29].

Market Overview - On October 16, 2025, A-share's three major indexes showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.10% to 3916.23, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25% to 13086.41, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.38% to 3037.44. The trading volume of the two markets dropped below 2 trillion to 1931.1 billion, a decrease of 141.7 billion from the previous day [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on October 16, closing at 4618.42, up 12.13 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coke and Coking Coal - On October 16, the weighted coke index fluctuated widely, closing at 1696.3, up 38.5 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1201.3 yuan, up 40.8 from the previous day [3][4] - Coke: The loss situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the enthusiasm for starting work has recovered. The daily average pig iron output of sample steel mills has slightly declined, but the absolute level remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are consuming raw material inventories and mainly purchasing on - demand [5] - Coking coal: After the long holiday, coal mine production has recovered. Most mines are operating normally. The import volume through the China - Mongolia freight customs clearance port is stable at a high level. The profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, and the iron output of steel mills remains at a high level [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Thursday due to bottom - fishing buying. Brazil is expected to have a 2025 sugarcane planting area of 9.355219 million hectares, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month's forecast, and a sugarcane output of 695.532937 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year [5] Rubber - Affected by the optimistic expectation of US interest rate cuts, the Shanghai rubber market rebounded on Thursday. The prediction of tire prices by Chinese tire dealers in October shows that the proportion of those bearish on prices has increased [6] Palm Oil - On October 16, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly within the range. From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased compared to the same period last month [6][8] Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher on October 16. The US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected. Brazil is expected to increase its 2025/2026 soybean planting area by 3.6% from the previous month and 0.1% from last year, with an output increase of 14.4% from the previous year. Domestically, the soybean meal futures weakened on October 16. The soybean crushing volume in September was about 9.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.5 million tons in October. The soybean meal inventory remains above 1 million tons, and the supply is loose [9] Live Pigs - On October 16, the live pig futures closed lower. In October, the supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the consumption after the festival has declined. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10] Shanghai Copper - The strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the global shortage of copper ore supply support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the US government shutdown have disturbed the market sentiment. The price may fluctuate within a range [10] Iron Ore - On October 16, the iron ore 2601 contract closed lower. The iron ore shipment volume continued to decline slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [11] Asphalt - On October 16, the asphalt 2511 contract closed higher. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded. However, due to capital and weather factors, the demand improvement is limited, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [11] Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13340 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 49 lots compared to the previous day. The machine - picked cotton price is 6 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram, and the short - fiber price has fallen. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is faster than in previous years [11] Logs - On October 16, the log futures price fell below the 800 - yuan mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking [11][12] Steel - On October 16, the steel prices fell weakly. Some steel mills have arranged maintenance and production cuts. In the short term, the steel price may be adjusted narrowly, and the decline may slow down [12] Alumina - On October 16, the alumina futures price closed at 2790 yuan/ton. The overseas bauxite supply is stable and loose, the domestic supply has not triggered large - scale production cuts, and the inventory is rising. The consumption in the northwest may be boosted by winter storage, but the overall market trading atmosphere is dull [13] Shanghai Aluminum - On October 16, the Shanghai aluminum futures price closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The supply of aluminum ingots is tightening, the inventory is at a historical low, and the downstream consumption in the peak season is strong. The aluminum price will continue to be strong in the short term [13]

Group 1: PVC - Current price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; capacity utilization rate is 82.63%, up 1.21% week - on - week; Jin Yuyuan's 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device is expected to end maintenance this week; social inventory is 103.38 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 622 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene method is - 538 yuan/ton; domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises' operation rate is 40.43%, up 1.3% month - on - month [1] - Supply is at a high level, production enterprises are in concentrated maintenance, new devices are put into operation, overall supply is abundant, domestic and foreign demand is rising steadily, social inventory has decreased slightly, and cost support is weak recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 4765 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1] Group 2: Gold - International gold price's upward trend continues, and spot gold has broken through $4300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record high. Multiple institutions have issued risk warnings [2] - When multiple institutions issue risk warnings, it indicates that the market is overheated and risks are approaching. Uncertainties in the US government shutdown and Fed rate cuts have led to the continuous rise of gold, and the weakening of the US dollar index may provide some upward momentum for gold, but it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [2] Group 3: Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 10, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, up 4.284 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, up 3.524 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, down 268,000 barrels; the average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, up 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year; the average daily production in the four weeks ending October 10 was 13.568 million barrels, 1.6% higher than the same period last year [4] - The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and reduced geopolitical risks. The fundamental driving force of crude oil is weak [4] Group 4: Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price is 50 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production price is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton; Cambodia's latex exports from January to September 2025 decreased 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [5] - Natural rubber is weakly declining, the spot is relatively strong, and the basis is converging. After the future rainfall in the producing areas eases, the incremental expectation is strong. Downstream tire enterprises are currently digesting inventory. Affected by the US tariff policy, the short - term driving force is weak. The low annual overall production of rubber and low inventory in China limit the decline of rubber. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Group 5: PTA - Taiwan, China's PX is reported at $783 per ton, PXN is $232 per ton, East China PTA is reported at 4350 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 4325 yuan/ton; PTA social inventory is 3.2595 million tons, down 25,500 tons from the previous statistical period; PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.78% [6] - PTA supply is expected to shrink; demand is expected to be dragged down by the tariff policy. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, which restricts the rebound space of PTA processing fees. Considering the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China remains at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is fluctuating weakly. Overall, the short - term downstream demand expectation and crude oil have a greater impact on PTA prices [6] Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.41, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.44. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous day [6] - At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still relatively prominent. The slaughter volume of large - scale farms remains high. Although the transaction in some areas has improved supported by second - fattening, the market supply has not decreased, and the slaughter demand has not increased significantly. The possibility of a sharp short - term rebound is small. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for stabilization [6] Group 7: Palm Oil - From October 1 to 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased 0.21% month - on - month, and production increased 6.86% month - on - month [7] - Malaysian palm oil production has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is still inventory pressure in October. The reduction of the reference price for November also reflects this. Palm oil prices are under pressure. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil has not changed, and there is strong support below. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Group 8: Soybeans - The monthly soybean crushing volume in September released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) far exceeded market expectations, reaching 197.863 million bushels, up 4.24% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year, setting the fourth - highest monthly record and the highest record for the same period in history. Analysts had expected a crushing volume of 186.34 million bushels before the report [8] - The stronger - than - expected soybean crushing volume in September has alleviated concerns about trade tensions. Bean No. 2 is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - news. Bean No. 1 is mainly stable and may have upward potential [8] Group 9: Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 77.66%, up 0.39% from the previous day; the average operation rate of downstream industries is 51.85%, up 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; commercial inventory is 985,200 tons, down 26,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory of two major state - owned petrochemical companies' polyolefins is 800,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous day [8] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly eased, demand is flat, commercial inventory has decreased, the spot trading atmosphere has weakened, merchants continue to sell at low prices, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6660 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8] Group 10: Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1246 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the float glass operation rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% week - on - week; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month; the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.4 days, down 5.5% month - on - month; from January to August, the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, down 17% year - on - year [9] - Currently, the profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, daily melting volume has rebounded slightly, downstream deep - processing enterprises' orders are still weak, float glass enterprises' inventory has increased, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and most raw - sheet enterprises have poor production and sales. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1160 level. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for a pull - back and stabilization [9] Group 11: Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation. The overnight variety remains flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety rises 0.5 BP to 1.419%; the 14 - day variety falls 0.9 BP to 1.443%, hitting a new low since January 2023; the 1 - month variety remains flat at 1.559% [9] - There is a differentiation between short - term and long - term in the capital market, indicating short - term capital tightness but loose capital expectations. Attention should be paid to the logic of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw. The risk - aversion sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has increased, which supports the bond market. However, it may still fluctuate in the medium term [9] Group 12: Silver - Fed officials have different views on the pace of rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious rate - cut step of 25 basis points each time to deal with the weak labor market, while Acting Fed Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut. The core of the disagreement lies in the speed of policy adjustment [10] - The Fed's divergence has increased, but a rate cut in October is basically priced in. The weakening of the US economy is negative for silver, but the strength of gold has created conditions for a short - squeeze in silver. The upward momentum of silver is limited. It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade situation remains volatile, and the weakening of the US dollar index has led to new highs in precious metal prices. The supply - demand relationship of copper provides strong support for prices, and short - term price declines may be limited. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Short - term trends of lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also analyzed, with corresponding price ranges provided [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Trade situation is volatile, the US dollar index is weak, and copper prices oscillate upwards. LME copper inventory decreases, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory increase slightly, and the spot import loss narrows. The refined - scrap price difference narrows [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas copper mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output tighten supply expectations, and short - term price declines may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,500 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory decreases, and the US may introduce an automobile tariff grace period. Aluminum prices are strongly trending. LME aluminum inventory decreases, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decline [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal consumption recovery, and strong exports, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and prices may continue to oscillate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,900 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,750 - 2,820 US dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closes slightly lower. LME lead price declines, and domestic social inventory remains unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent lead ore inventory rises slightly, and the production of primary lead smelting remains high. The waste lead inventory declines, and the production of secondary lead smelting is at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory accumulates. The short - term Shanghai lead is expected to be strong [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closes slightly lower, and the LME zinc price rises. Domestic social inventory accumulates slightly, and the zinc ingot export window opens [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and most downstream enterprises maintain normal production. The LME registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is still a structural risk. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased volatility [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines slightly. The import of tin ore is at a low level due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. The smelting enterprise operating rate is low, and downstream demand is mixed. The consumption margin improves during the peak season, but high prices still suppress consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillate. Spot market transactions are average, and brand premiums rise slightly. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices are weak, and MHP coefficient prices are high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trade frictions may reduce market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, weak nickel - iron prices and high refined nickel inventory pressure may drag down nickel prices, but in the long term, there are supporting factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, and the futures contract price also increases. The market's available spot is tight, and the premium strengthens [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Social inventory and exchange warehouse receipts continue to decline. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, lithium prices may break through the upper limit. Short - term strong oscillation is more likely. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 73,000 - 77,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declines slightly, and the trading volume increases. The spot price in Shandong drops, and the import window closes. The futures warehouse receipts decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and inventory accumulation continues. It is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinean ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rises slightly, and the trading volume increases. Spot prices in different markets show different trends, and raw material prices are stable. Social inventory decreases, but 300 - series inventory increases [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulates significantly, but terminal consumption is flat. The market does not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. Spot prices decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The market trend is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract price rises, the trading volume and open interest increase. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 is stable, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The firm cost provides support for the aluminum alloy price, but the current market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is relatively large, limiting the upward price space [29].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated October 17, 2025 [1] - It provides analysis and trading suggestions for various futures products including coking coal, stock index futures, gold, iron ore, glass, eggs, and pulp [3][7][10] Group 2: Coking Coal Analysis - Coking coal prices rose 3.36% today due to supply - side disruptions and short - term demand support [3] - Supply - side factors include slow复产 in some areas due to safety inspections and accidents, and restrictions on Mongolian coal imports. Demand - side support comes from high pig iron production and steel mills' replenishment demand [4] - However, the fundamental contradiction of loose supply remains. Domestic coal mine production is high, Mongolian coal imports are increasing, and port inventories are high. Terminal steel consumption has concerns, and if finished product inventory problems worsen, coking coal demand will be suppressed [4] - In the short term, coking coal is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 yuan/ton. Pay attention to over - production verification, Mongolian coal import recovery, and steel demand realization. There is a risk of price decline if the supply - demand situation remains loose [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a volatile day. The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closed slightly up. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] Gold - Shanghai gold reached a new high with large fluctuations. Short - term chasing is not recommended, and low - buying is advisable [12] Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and pig iron production may decline. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [15] Glass - Daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has been accumulating this week. The future driver depends on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies. After a continuous decline, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunity after stabilization [20][21] Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, at current prices and costs, egg - chicken farming is expected to lose 16.90 yuan per chicken. Short - term long opportunities can be grasped [24] Pulp - Pulp prices in Shandong are stable. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories are high, and the pulp market is expected to be weak. Rebound - selling is recommended [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

Core Insights - The futures market shows a strong bullish sentiment with 59 contracts rising and 20 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The top gainers include polysilicon (+3.51%), coking coal (+3.36%), LPG (+3.07%), butadiene rubber (+3.05%), and Shanghai silver (+2.93%) [4] - The largest declines were seen in the shipping index (-3.64%), live pigs (-3.21%), apples (-1.82%), peanuts (-1.14%), and eggs (-1.05%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Group 2: Capital Flows - The most significant capital inflows were into the SSE 50 (1.403 billion), coking coal (670 million), and CSI 300 (602 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 1000 (-2.862 billion), CSI 500 (-1.7 billion), and copper (-1.299 billion), suggesting notable fund withdrawals from these commodities [8] Group 3: Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in live pigs (+15.52%), apples (+11.30%), SSE (+9.43%), soybeans (+8.48%), and silicon iron (+6.31%), indicating new capital entering these markets [11] - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in butadiene rubber (-24.75%), crude oil (-21.62%), corn (-16.81%), lumber (-14.36%), and starch (-13.59%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Group 4: Key Events - Glass production companies in Shahe are required to complete "coal-to-gas" conversions by the end of the month, affecting a capacity of 8,100 tons/day, with an estimated cost increase of 80-100 yuan/ton [12] - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 6.86% from the previous month, with a reported yield increase of 5.76% [12] Group 5: Industry Insights - The rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with a current output of 201.16 million tons, down 1.1% from the previous week [13][14] - Domestic soda ash production has decreased by 3.93% to 74.05 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 0.94% to 170.05 million tons [15] Group 6: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold and silver prices have shown volatility, with gold expected to reach $4,400 by the end of 2025 and $4,600 by mid-2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [17] - The market for precious metals remains uncertain, with potential risks from high prices and fluctuating demand [26][27]

Inflation Trends - Core CPI in September increased by 0.9% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend, significantly outperforming the overall CPI which decreased by 0.3% due to falling pork prices[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 1.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven partly by rising prices of gold and copper[6] Price Dynamics - Gold jewelry and platinum prices increased by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting the impact of international commodity price fluctuations[6] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in September, with significant contributions from coal processing and black metal smelting industries, reducing the downward pressure on PPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points[6] Consumer Behavior - The shift from a "price war" to a "value war" in consumer goods indicates an improvement in supply quality, with household appliance CPI trends diverging from copper price movements[6] - Strong demand for personalized and upgraded products is evident, with prices for certain categories like arts and crafts increasing by 14.7% year-on-year[6] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the main drivers of economic growth are shifting from external demand to high-quality domestic demand, indicating a structural transformation in the economy[6] - Future inflation dynamics will largely depend on internal policies, with expectations for continued support for domestic demand through fiscal and monetary measures[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].