1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].

Core Viewpoints - The market in June is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, while April's industrial profits continued to show a recovery trend but experienced a decline in both volume and price. The cost decline was the main driver of profit growth in April. PMI data for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, and the trend of weak inventory replenishment is likely to continue in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a cautious and oscillating market environment. Key areas to watch for a breakthrough include developments in overseas tariffs and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June [4][10][12]. June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by the report includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Pharmaceuticals) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [10][12]. Industry Summaries Transportation Industry: SF Express - SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The profit growth was primarily driven by the continuous improvement of the product matrix and enhanced service competitiveness. The company also focused on cost control through operational model reforms and network optimization, achieving a gross profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [12][13]. Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - Anji Technology experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, with a net profit margin of 29.08%. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 55.70%, and the net profit margin was 30.96%. The company is seeing a steady increase in its global market share for polishing liquids, with a projected market size growth for semiconductor CMP polishing materials [14][15]. Pharmaceutical Industry: Bairen Medical - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in revenue and profit in 2024, with significant increases in its three main business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2025, driven by the approval of its first interventional valve product, which offers significant advantages in terms of operation and safety [17][18]. Social Services Industry: Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The company’s travel agency operations and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism and the expansion of hotel management projects [20][21]. Food and Beverage Industry: Qingdao Beer - Qingdao Beer faced pressure on volume and price in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline in sales volume of 7.0%. However, the company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to an improvement in gross profit margins. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers, supported by the company's strong brand and distribution network [23][24]. Computer Industry: Suochen Technology - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. The engineering simulation software segment has shown significant growth, contributing to an overall increase in the company's gross profit margin [25][26][27].

Strategy Overview - The market in June is expected to remain in a state of waiting for a breakthrough, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, although April's industrial profits showed a decline in both volume and price, with cost reductions being the main driver for profit growth. The PMI for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, continuing the trend of weak inventory replenishment in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the market. Key areas to monitor for a breakthrough include overseas tariff developments and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June. [5][7] June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by Zhongyin Securities includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [14][16] Performance Review of May Stock Selection - The stock selection for May outperformed the market, with notable performances from Jiemian Express-W and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both achieving over 10% monthly returns. The absolute return of the May stock selection was 3.87%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.02 percentage points. Three stocks achieved excess returns of over 5% compared to the CSI 300. [9] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (Transportation) - In Q1 2025, SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit increased by 16.87% year-on-year, driven by continuous improvement in product matrix and service competitiveness. The gross profit margin was 13.3%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points. [16][17] Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Anji Technology is expected to see rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 58.45%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached 1.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.73%. The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is expected to grow from 3.42 billion USD in 2024 to 3.62 billion USD in 2025. [19][20] Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue across all three major business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The approval of the TAVR product in August 2024 is expected to drive further growth in 2025. [24][25] Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The travel agency and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism. [29][30] Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in 2024 with a volume decline of 7.0% and a slight price increase of 0.5%. The company’s gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, but net profit margin slightly decreased. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers. [34][35] Suochen Technology (Computers) - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. [38][39][40]

各位老铁，这里是帮主郑重的收评时间。今天这市场啊，就像端午节包粽子——外面看着热闹，里头藏着门道。沪指涨了0.43%，深成指和创业板指也跟着 回暖，但仔细看，近3400只个股上涨的背后，资金明显在玩"抓大放小"的游戏。咱们今天就拆解拆解，这反弹里到底藏着啥玄机。 先说指数反弹的"底气"从哪来 今天市场能反弹，跟政策预期升温脱不了干系。最近市场对稳增长政策的期待越来越强，加上外资回流的迹象，让不少观望资金试探性进场。不过成交量只 放量了4个亿，说明大家还是有点犹豫，就像煮粽子时火候不够，米粒还没完全开花。这时候得盯紧北向资金的动向，它们要是持续加仓，反弹才有持续 性。 创新药板块爆发：政策松绑+研发提速的双击 创新药今天集体嗨了，舒泰神、海南海药这些票涨停，可不是偶然。去年开始，创新药审批流程大幅缩短，加上老龄化带来的刚性需求，这个板块就像压紧 的弹簧。我跟药企研发总监聊过，现在一款创新药从立项到上市周期比三年前快了30%，这就好比做菜从慢炖变成高压锅，效率上去了，利润空间自然就打 开了。不过要提醒老铁们，别光看涨停就追高，得看企业真正的研发管线厚度，有些票可能只是蹭概念。 银行股稳如泰山：高股息成避风港 沪农 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

上证指数日K线图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 汪友若 6月A股或延续震荡偏强走势 对于6月市场整体表现，多数机构认同，当前政策对于资本市场的重视程度较高，或对A股形成较强支 撑。 光大证券表示，当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以来的均值附近，随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带 来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 华金证券认为，当前政策基调仍然较积极，且基本面有望持续修复，6月A股可能延续震荡偏强趋势。 该机构分析称，首先，端午假期和"6·18"消费旺季可能使得6月消费维持高增速；其次，海外补库存可 能使得6月出口增速回升；最后，稳增长政策加速落地可能使得6月制造业、基建投资维持高增速。 中国银河证券称，短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内一系列稳增长政策支持下，市场调整空间 有限。长期来看，A股市场走势仍将体现"以我为主"的内涵。随着中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"作 用，政策大力推动中长期资金入市，A股市场平稳运行将具备更为坚实的基础。 在申万宏源证券看来，现阶段是A股市场对宏观因素变化不敏感的窗口期，各项资本市场政策构建了A 股对宏观扰动的"隔离墙"。发展资本市场是当前政策 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while the steel industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall profits, the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. This includes stabilization in the real estate sector, steady infrastructure investment, and continued development in manufacturing [4][43] - The report highlights that the average iron water cost has decreased, and the profit margins for rebar steel have shown slight improvement, indicating potential for recovery in the industry [4][57] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.73% this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products also showing slight declines [3][11] - Iron ore prices increased by 0.30%, while steel consumption rose by 1.02% week-on-week [3][35] 2. Supply Data - As of May 30, the average daily iron water output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 thousand tons week-on-week, but an increase of 5.11 thousand tons year-on-year [3][26] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 90.7% and 59.0%, respectively, both showing slight declines [3][26] 3. Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.138 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.23 thousand tons [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 102 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.71% [3][35] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 9.325 million tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [3][43] - Factory inventory also saw a decline, totaling 4.331 million tons, a decrease of 1.12% week-on-week [3][43] 5. Price and Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,386.7 yuan/ton, down 1.90% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6,630.7 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [3][49] - The profit for rebar steel from blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% week-on-week, while electric furnace profits were negative at -357.04 yuan/ton [3][57] 6. Raw Material Prices - The price of Australian iron ore at the port was 737 yuan/ton, down 2.25% week-on-week [4][71] - The price of coking coal was 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][71] 7. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios for companies like Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and others [4][72]