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经济数据提振美元 国际黄金开始缓慢上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-28 06:34
【要闻速递】 美元指数(DXY)在亚洲交易时段延续前一日上涨势头,短暂触及99.80,为本周高点,市场多头情绪 受到改善的经济数据提振,但涨势缺乏强劲动能。 支撑本轮上涨的主要因素,是周二公布的美国耐用品订单和消费者信心数据均好于预期。 "这次反弹表明美国家庭对未来收入与就业状况的预期显著改善,从而提振整体经济信心,"一位不具名 的市场分析师指出。 尽管短线数据利好美元,但更广泛的财政与货币政策背景却可能压制其上涨空间。 【黄金走势分析】 黄金周二震荡下行,当天最高3350,最低3285,日线收阴于3300,日线看金价受阻于中轨,今重点看 3280能否下破,破位下看3260和3250,四小时线,呈区间震荡,小时线,震荡,今早反弹3315后下跌至 3292,目前仍处于震荡,综述日内先看区震荡,下方看3280,上方看3320和3350,区间不破继续震荡。 周三(5月28日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势,今日开盘报3301.80美元/盎司,最高触及3315.45美 元/盎司,最低触及3291.45美元/盎司,截止发稿金价报3307.09美元/盎司,涨幅0.19%。 据市场调查显示,美国4月耐用品订单下滑6.3% ...
需求强劲 金价走强仍可期
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-28 01:43
Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]
民调:美国密歇根州民众对美经济前景感到悲观
news flash· 2025-05-28 01:26
智通财经5月28日电,据美国密歇根州底特律地区商会27日发布的民意调查显示,密歇根州约54%的受 访者认为,特朗普政府的关税政策将对该州经济造成负面影响。在经济预期方面,62%的受访者认为美 国经济目前疲软或正走向衰退。商会负责人表示,这一数据表明,该州民众对当前美国经济形势普遍持 悲观态度。此外,79%的受访者认为关税政策将直接导致商品价格上涨,加重居民生活成本。 民调:美国密歇根州民众对美经济前景感到悲观 ...
STARTRADER星迈:5月27日美元指数走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 07:18
Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a V-shaped rebound, currently at 99.03, slightly up by 0.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 98.5-99.2 [1] - Federal Reserve officials are signaling a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic stating that the potential for rate cuts this year may be limited to 25 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 50 basis point cut [3] - Concerns about stagflation in the US economy are growing, and if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows signs of a deteriorating job market, the dollar's safe-haven appeal may be impacted [3] Group 2 - The upcoming durable goods orders data for April is a key focus, with expectations of a significant decline to -7.9%, down from a previous growth of 9.2%, primarily due to a sharp drop in Boeing orders [4] - If the actual durable goods orders data is significantly weaker than expected, it may heighten concerns about the weakness in the US manufacturing sector, further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [4] - Conversely, a rebound in the durable goods orders data could alleviate market worries regarding the negative impacts of tariffs, providing temporary support for the dollar [4]
国泰海通|宏观:日本超长债:为何利率明显上行
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-25 13:39
日本超长债:为何利率明显上行?近期日本超长债利率明显上升,收益率曲线也明显变陡。 背后或主要存 在以下几方面的原因:首先,在关税影响下日本财政扩张倾向增加了市场对债券供给冲击的担忧。其次, 2025 年以来日本国内机构对超长债需求较为疲弱。此外,日本国债拍卖遇冷或也催化了市场对超长债供 需失衡的悲观情绪。不过,此次日元套息交易规模或相对较小,套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲 击或相对可控。未来来看,仍需关注后续日本政府债券拍卖情况是否会进一步冲击市场情绪、日央行是否 会释放鸽派信号缓解市场恐慌、以及 7 月的日本国会参议院选举结果。 美国经济: 4 月美国新建住房及成屋销售同比增速有所回升; 5 月美国 Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 均 超预期回升。截至 5 月 23 日,市场交易层面通胀预期维持稳定。 欧洲经济: 5 月受服务业景气度走弱影响,欧元区 PMI 回落至荣枯线之下; 5 月欧元区 27 国消费者信 心指数小幅回升,但总体仍处相对低位。 报告导读: 近期日本超长债利率明显上升,或主要受日本财政宽松倾向加剧市场对长债 供给冲击和财政可持续性担忧、日本国内机构超长债配置需求偏弱、以及20年 ...
信号明确?“美国不会经济衰退,美联储不会降息”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-23 09:27
Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]
【招银研究|资本市场快评】美债利率全线上升的原因及后市展望
招商银行研究· 2025-05-23 01:13
一、美债利率上行的原因 美东时间5月21日,美债利率全线上升,10年期美债利率突破4.6%,30年期美债利率突破5.0%,我们对此点评 如下: 第一,20年期美债拍卖结果较差,这是利率上行的导火索。 20年期美债最终得标利率为5.05%,相较4月高出 约20BP,也是自2023年11月以来首次突破5.0%整数大关,投标倍数同样出现了明显下滑。 第四,美国经济硬数据稳健,市场对通胀存在担忧,叠加美联储在降息问题上维持定力,基本面和货币政策对 利率偏空。 二、美债策略展望:短期波动不改震荡趋势,配置中短久期美债,回避长债 短期来看,上述利空因素可能将继续发酵,利率存在进一步冲高的风险,但美国评级下调等因素偏短期,影响 预计难以持久,同时美国经济在关税和通胀背景下仍有压力,认为美债利率不具备持续大幅上行的条件,维持 利率宽幅震荡的观点不变。考虑到美债票息收益可观,仍值得配置,建议维持中短久期美债的配置,以票息策 略为主,长久期债券建议回避,若10Y国债利率上升至4.7%-5%区间,可能是一个较好的配置窗口。 -END- 本期作者 陈峤 资本市场研究员 chenqiao426 @cmbch ina .com 刘东亮 ...
【环球财经】特朗普税改法案在众议院过关 纽约股市三大股指22日涨跌互现
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 23:21
Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant tax reform bill, which could potentially increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the current debt level of $36.2 trillion [1] - The stock market showed mixed results following the tax reform news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 41,859.09, down 1.35 points, and the S&P 500 index down 2.60 points to 5,842.01, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 53.09 points to 18,925.74 [1] - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, 8 sectors declined, with utilities and healthcare leading the losses at 1.41% and 0.76%, respectively, while consumer discretionary and communication services were the best performers, rising by 0.56% and 0.32% [1] Group 2 - Short-term economic benefits from the tax reform are anticipated, including GDP growth and increased spending, particularly in defense, which could stimulate the economy [2] - Long-term concerns regarding the tax reform include exacerbating the fiscal deficit, leading to rising yields and declining bond attractiveness, as noted by analysts [2] - The bond market showed some relief after Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling below 5.1% and the 10-year benchmark yield around 4.55% [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is considering interest rate cuts if the Trump administration's tariff policies are less concerning than previously thought, with recent data indicating a rebound in U.S. business activity [3] - The preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for May rose to 52.1 from 50.6 in April, indicating moderate economic expansion, although the labor market shows signs of weakness with rising unemployment claims [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, as investors monitor economic trends and fiscal policy developments [3]
初请失业金数意外降至四周低点 关税阴云之下美国劳动力市场暂显韧性
智通财经网· 2025-05-22 13:26
智通财经APP获悉,美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外降至四周以来最低点位,进一步表明在特朗普政 府主导的贸易政策带来越来越大经济增长不确定性之际,美国劳动力市场依然保持健康。这也意味着特 朗普面向全球的激进关税政策目前尚未对于美国经济造成重大负面影响,给了美联储政策制定者们继续 观望经济形势以及继续维系高利率的关键理由。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至4周最低点——持续申领人数则略有上升 持续申领失业救济金人数——衡量领取失业救济整体人数的衡量指标,在前一周则增至 190 万人,仅仅 略高于经济学家们普遍预期。 初请失业金数据的最新水平显示,即便对关税政策以及特朗普政府缩减联邦政府规模所产生的连锁负面 效应感到忧虑,企业们仍相对满意当前的用工规模。 虽然美国政府已对部分关税做出让步,圣路易斯联储主席阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆(Alberto Musalem)仍认为特 朗普政府主导的贸易政策可能拖累美国劳动力市场。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,截至5月17日当周,美国初请失业金人数减少2,000 人,至22.7万人, 低于经济学家们普遍预期的23万人。该统计期涵盖了美国政府编制月度就业报告的调查周。 华尔街大行高盛集团的 ...
美知名百货零售商下调销售预期 经济学家唱衰美国经济
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-22 07:35
Group 1 - President Trump pressured Walmart to absorb tariff costs without raising prices [1] - Target Corporation lowered its full-year sales forecast after a weak quarterly performance, downplaying plans for price increases related to tariffs [1][3] - Target's comparable sales fell by 3.8% in the quarter ending May 3, exceeding analyst expectations [3] Group 2 - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are exploring strategies to manage tariff costs without comprehensive price increases [3] - Home Depot indicated that while there won't be overall price hikes, some individual product prices may adjust, and certain items might disappear from shelves [3] - Lowe's executives emphasized maintaining price competitiveness and minimizing consumer impact [3] Group 3 - Nike avoided mentioning tariffs but announced price increases on various footwear and apparel products, with specific increases of $5 for shoes priced between $100 and $150, and $10 for shoes over $150 [5] - Major U.S. retailers are facing dual challenges of high costs from tariffs and the need to avoid alienating consumers or the White House [5] Group 4 - A recent Reuters survey indicated that economists believe U.S. government policies have negatively impacted the economy, with over 55% stating it caused severe damage [6] - Current tariff rates are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to high policy uncertainty and recession risks [6] - Economists expect U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target at least until 2027 [6]