此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...

美国"关税大棒"挥舞数月，市场高度关注其对通胀的实际影响，各大投行普遍预期关税成本将开始传导至消费价格。 北京时间周三晚上即将发布的美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将检验关税是否终于开始推高物价，并为美联储降息路径提供线索。 富国银行：通胀回升但不足以警告美联储 富国银行表示，数据可能显示通胀开始再次走强，但在现阶段还不足以让美联储官员感到警觉。 该行指出，"在劳动力市场疲软和服务业通胀进一步消退的情况下，关税推动的核心通胀上升看起来更像是一个颠簸而非飙升。" 高盛、德银等各大投行分析师普遍认为，关税影响将在下半年更加明显，但对于这种价格上涨是否构成持续通胀压力存在分歧。高盛和摩根大通 倾向认为其影响将持续一段时间并抬升通胀中枢；富国银行则表示，关税推动的核心通胀上升"更像是一个颠簸而非飙升"。 目前，货币市场对美联储7月30日降息的概率定价不足5%，但仍完全计入年底前两次25个基点的降息，与美联储自身预测保持一致。美联储内部 对利率前景态度谨慎，普遍预期关税效应将在年底前推高价格。部分官员暗示，关税引发的价格上涨若被判断为一次性冲击，并可能支持7月降 息。 高盛：关税影响将在下半年加速 高盛预期6月核心 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has fallen below 97, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, while the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.35% respectively [1] - Global capital markets are experiencing a flight to safety, with gold prices rising by 1.92% to $3,337 per ounce, and Bitcoin surpassing $117,000, marking a new high [2] - Despite tariff concerns, the Nasdaq index has risen by 0.94%, reaching a historical high, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The effective tariff rate for US companies has surged from 3% to 13%, with predictions it may reach 17% [3] - 73% of S&P 500 constituents are set to report earnings in July, with expectations for earnings per share growth of only 4% [3] - The June non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the growth is heavily reliant on government sectors, indicating structural weaknesses in the job market [4] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - President Trump's tariffs are causing significant market reactions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 422 points following the announcement of new tariffs on Canada [6] - The US has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, and has also targeted Brazil with a 50% tariff on all products [6] - A temporary reprieve occurred when Brazil announced countermeasures, coinciding with the US's decision to cancel additional tariffs on China [8] Group 4: Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts, as highlighted by the June meeting minutes showing a split among decision-makers [10] - Fed Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive, while others warn of the long-term inflationary impacts of tariffs [10] - The political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, with former President Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Powell and suggesting potential replacements who would favor lower rates [12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both stock index futures and bond futures are "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and a turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.02%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.1%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.04%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.07%. The manufacturing sector was strong, while real estate and non-banking sectors pulled back. The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the "anti-involution" policy, but the impact of this policy still depends on the scale and transmission mode of central fiscal policies. Overseas, the strong "non-farm" data has slightly slowed down the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened significantly. The fundamentals of the index still depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to move sideways in the short term [1] - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures contracts all closed lower, with declines of 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1197 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 both increased. In July, the central bank will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. In June, export growth and financial data exceeded expectations, and the bond market was under pressure due to the tightening of the capital market. However, with the support of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital market, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the bond market is expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,747.4 | 2,751.6 | -4.2 | -0.15% | | IF | 3,985.8 | 3,993.4 | -7.6 | -0.19% | | IC | 6,008.4 | 6,023.0 | -14.6 | -0.24% | | IM | 6,302.2 | 6,319.8 | -17.6 | -0.28% | [4] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,757.8 | 2,756.8 | 1.0 | 0.04% | | SSE 300 | 4,017.7 | 4,014.8 | 2.9 | 0.07% | | CSI 500 | 6,020.9 | 6,027.1 | -6.2 | -0.10% | | CSI 1000 | 6,462.3 | 6,461.1 | 1.2 | 0.02% | [4] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.38 | 102.42 | -0.036 | -0.04% | | TF | 105.92 | 106.00 | -0.075 | -0.07% | | T | 108.73 | 108.83 | -0.1 | -0.09% | | TL | 120.29 | 120.61 | -0.32 | -0.27% | [4] Group 4: Market News - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 5.0% [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of macro-financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29]

Group 1 - As of July 14, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained a holding of 947.64 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - On July 14, spot gold prices peaked at $3375.04 per ounce before falling to a low of $3340.95, closing at $3343.34, down $11.83 or 0.35% [2] - The announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, has heightened market anxiety, leading to a temporary surge in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, market panic has subsided, with investors betting on a new trade agreement by August 1, which has suppressed the demand for safe-haven gold [3] - The market is currently focused on the U.S. CPI data, with expectations that inflation data could impact the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have potential upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3377, $3400, and $3440, while critical support levels are at $3340, $3325, and $3297 [3]

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the expected 3.21% and the five-year average of 4.14% by 1.66 percentage points[8] - The marginal improvement in exports to the US was significant, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.3%, an increase of 18.39 percentage points from the previous value[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries also improved, with a growth rate of 16.74%, up 5.31 percentage points from the previous value[11] Import Performance - June imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous value by 4.5 percentage points[19] - The improvement in imports was primarily driven by increased imports from Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, with positive contributions from these regions[22] Future Outlook - The extension of the US tariff exemption until August 1 may limit the recovery of China's export growth to the US in the second half of the year, creating downward pressure on exports[26] - If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September, it could lead to a structural market rally in July, despite potential export slowdowns[28] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of policies remain key risks that could impact market stability[29]

Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

香港第一金消息面： 黄金操作建议 昨日周一，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的表态明确指出，鉴于美国通胀依然过高，且贸易关税对价格压力的影响存在 持续不确定性，美联储目前没有立即降息的必要。 她在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："我们非常接近中性利率水 平，我看到经济具有韧性，运行良好，除非劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，否则我不会认为有必要真正降低（利 率）。" 她强调，鉴于通胀仍旧过高，"我认为我们保持限制性货币政策立场非常重要，以确保我们将通胀降至2%的 目标。" 近几周发表讲话的大多数美联储官员似乎都同意，目前的联邦基金目标利率区间（目前介于4.25%至4.5%之 间）将在本月底保持不变。 1、建议在3330-3340附近考虑做多，止损8美元，目标看3360-3370美金附近 在美联储上个月的会议上，官员们预测今年晚些时候将有两次降息，投资者普遍预计宽松政策将从9月份的会议开 始。 然而，少数美联储官员则倾向于在7月份降息，他们的理由是，特朗普政府激进且不断变化的进口关税上调只会 对通胀产生一次性影响，在制定货币政策时可以忽略。上周，美联储理事沃勒表示："我们的政策过于紧缩，可以考 虑在7月份降低政策利率。"沃勒补充说 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

20250715申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2508 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2508 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 775.58 | 780.34 | 9140.00 | 9185.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 778.98 | 783.48 | 9179.00 | 9225.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -3.40 | -3.14 | -39.00 | -40.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | -0.40% | -0.42% | -0.43% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 62625 | 91191 | 164208 | 206505 | | | | 成交量 | 44116 | 27458 | 218523 | 133459 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 1.8 ...