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2025年Q2中国经济与金融市场手册:结构性失衡与增长担忧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 09:27
Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's economy exhibits a dual characteristic of structural adjustment and growth resilience amid complex internal and external environments [1] - The global trade environment is undergoing significant changes, with the escalation of the US-China tariff war being a major external variable affecting China's economy [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Since late 2024, US tariffs on China have increased from an initial 20% to a peak, affecting a wide range of products including steel, aluminum, and high-tech items [2] - Despite some tariff reductions following negotiations, the overall tariff levels remain high, creating uncertainty in trade [2] - China's export growth to the US has shown volatility, while exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa have increased, with ASEAN's share nearing 30% in Q2 2025, up approximately 8 percentage points since 2018 [2] Group 3: Domestic Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, domestic policies have shifted towards a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal support, and monetary coordination [4] - A significant local government debt replacement plan of 10 trillion yuan has been initiated to alleviate fiscal pressures, alongside an increase in the budget deficit rate to 4% for 2025 [4] - Consumption support measures are expected to reach 40-60 billion yuan in 2025, aimed at boosting market confidence [4] Group 4: Economic Structure Transformation - The economic structure is transitioning from investment-driven growth to innovation and consumption-led growth, with a focus on high-tech sectors such as AI and renewable energy [6] - The government has established a 60 billion yuan AI industry fund, with local governments also creating funds to support advanced manufacturing [6] - Retail sales are recovering, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, and online retail penetration nearing 28% of total retail sales [6] Group 5: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with investment growth slowing but market structure improving, focusing on affordable housing and urban renewal [7] - Long-term, the role of real estate in economic growth is expected to diminish as urbanization matures and demographic changes occur [7] Group 6: Long-term Trends and Challenges - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, facing challenges such as aging population and labor supply changes [8] - Debt levels among local governments and enterprises remain a concern, but domestic ownership of debt and high savings rates provide a buffer [8] - The US-China relationship and global supply chain adjustments will continue to influence economic operations, with opportunities arising from cooperation in areas like renewable energy [8]
梁燕| 退无可退:面对经济失速压力,特朗普会不会再次认怂?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 00:28
Core Points - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on 66 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%, marking a significant rise from historical averages [1][3] - The average tariff level has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy and its implications for global economics [3][7] - The article raises questions about the long-term effects of these tariffs on the global economy and the potential for a new multipolar world order [1][7] Tariff as a Fiscal Tool - Tariffs are being used as a fiscal tool, with the government expecting $87 billion in tariff revenue for the first half of 2025, significantly impacting low-income households [3][4] - The burden of tariffs is primarily falling on consumers, particularly low-income groups, exacerbating wealth inequality [3][4] Tariff as an Industrial Protection Measure - The article highlights the decline of U.S. manufacturing since the 1950s and suggests that tariffs are a misguided approach to revitalize the sector without structural reforms [4][5] - The lack of investment in infrastructure and human capital is noted as a critical issue that tariffs alone cannot address [4] Tariff as a Negotiation Tool - Tariffs are being used as leverage in trade negotiations, with claims of significant investment commitments from other countries often being overstated [3][5] - The article points out that without improving productivity, the U.S. risks reducing consumer purchasing power [5] Tariff as a Geopolitical Weapon - The differential tariff rates reveal political motivations, with certain countries receiving preferential treatment while others face punitive rates [5] - The article suggests that this approach may lead to a reconfiguration of global trade alliances and a move towards de-dollarization [5] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Recent economic indicators show a decline in consumer spending growth and employment, raising concerns about the sustainability of the tariff policy [7] - The potential for Trump to reverse some tariffs in response to economic pressures is discussed, but the damage to U.S. credibility in international trade may be lasting [7]
北美观察丨关税伤了谁?福特的代价与反击
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-08-06 08:29
Group 1 - The core issue is that Ford Motor Company is facing significant profit losses due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, estimating a loss of $2 billion to $3 billion this year [2][3] - Ford's supply chain is highly globalized, with thousands of parts sourced from overseas, making it particularly vulnerable to increased costs from tariffs on auto parts [3][4] - The company has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the tariffs, highlighting that while American manufacturers face a 25% tariff on parts, Japanese automakers benefit from a lower 15% tariff on vehicles exported to the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - The entire U.S. automotive industry is united in its opposition to the tariffs, with General Motors projecting a profit decline of $4 billion to $5 billion by 2025 due to tariffs [5] - The American Automotive Policy Council has warned that the tariffs could lead to an industry-wide cost increase of $108 billion, potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of jobs [6] - Even established foreign brands like Toyota and BMW are considering production adjustments in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [6] Group 3 - The Trump administration's strategy to use tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. has resulted in unintended consequences, harming domestic manufacturers like Ford instead [7] - Ford is actively seeking exemptions or adjustments to the tariffs through daily discussions with the White House, but has not seen significant results [4][7] - The upcoming midterm elections may prompt a reevaluation of these tariff policies, with potential new strategies from the Democratic Party to address industry losses [7]
漫航观察周报-20250806
漫航观察· 2025-08-06 01:11
Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in the cross-border logistics sector, with a decline of 1.68% in the cross-border logistics index [9][12]. Core Insights - The global container freight rates are on a downward trajectory, with the CCFI reporting 1232.29 points, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [7]. - The air cargo index BAI reported 2027 points, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% month-on-month, indicating a tightening in air freight capacity due to increased demand ahead of tariff deadlines [7]. - The report highlights significant developments in cross-border e-commerce, including new policies affecting import taxes and logistics costs in various regions, which may reshape market dynamics [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Cross-Border Logistics Important News - New international air cargo routes have been established, with 20 new routes opened in July, totaling 137 routes for the year, enhancing the air freight network [18]. - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of the low-value import tax exemption for goods valued under $800, effective August 29, which will impact air cargo volumes [20] 2. Cross-Border Logistics Important Data Changes - The shipping price index shows a decline, with the SCFI at 1550.74 points, down 2.63% month-on-month, and the NCFI at 1087.66 points, down 2.06% [7]. - The air cargo index BAI30 and BAI80 also reported declines of 1.65% and 0.25% respectively, indicating a broader trend of decreasing air freight rates [7]. 3. Capital Market Perspective on Cross-Border Logistics - The cross-border logistics sector has seen a cumulative decline of 7.26% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [12]. - The report notes a divergence in stock performance within the cross-border logistics sector, suggesting varying impacts on individual companies [9].
IMF上调全球经济增长,有色暂获支撑
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.
中国计划取消美国猪肉关税豁免,进口美国肉类产品关税将增30%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 00:50
Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].
关税博弈白热化 贵金属波动加剧
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-29 08:19
Group 1 - Spot gold prices have dropped to a multi-week low around $3316.50 per ounce, with limited buying interest observed [1] - Silver is fluctuating cautiously near a low point of $38, reflecting a similar trend to gold [1] - The easing of safe-haven demand is attributed to the US-EU trade agreement, alongside a potential 1.5% rise in the US dollar, which is pressuring precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding interest rate changes remain cautious, with a 96.9% probability of no change in July and a 62.6% chance of a rate cut in September [2] - Structural differentiation in tariffs is noted, with countries like South Korea, Canada, and Chile seeking favorable terms, which reduces systemic risk premiums [2] - The geopolitical landscape is entering a rebalancing phase, with a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia reducing short-term safe-haven demand, while US-Russia tensions are escalating [2] Group 3 - The strong rebound of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on gold prices, with a potential drop below $3300 leading to support levels around $3275-$3285 [3] - Silver prices are also under pressure from a strong dollar, with support levels at $37.30-$37.50 and potential further decline towards $35.65-$35.85 [3] - The precious metals market is expected to experience increased volatility, with key focus on the outcomes of the July 30 FOMC meeting and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [3]
银河期货:关税博弈扰动市场 贵金属震荡待机
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-29 06:04
Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 29, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 770.70 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.33% [1] - The opening price for the day was 772.66 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 773.30 CNY and a minimum of 767.68 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic News - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [1] - U.S. Treasury Department forecasts a borrowing increase of 453 billion USD for Q3, raising the borrowing estimate to 1.007 trillion USD from April's prediction [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 96.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 3.1% [3] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The market's risk aversion is easing as the U.S. reaches agreements with Japan and the EU, while talks with China are ongoing [4] - Recent macro data from the U.S. shows resilience, reducing concerns about the deterioration of the U.S. economic fundamentals [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain high volatility in this uncertain environment [4]
港股、海外周观察:关税“截止日”临近,港美股还能进一步新高吗?
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-28 08:03
Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index breaking previous highs and showing strong support against declines. There is a focus on potential capital inflows and risk appetite among investors [1][3] - Investor sentiment has improved, with trading volumes significantly increasing. There is still potential for some funds, particularly insurance capital, to increase their positions [1][3] - Institutional investors are expected to provide momentum for the overall rise in the Hong Kong stock market, with a consensus on increasing allocations to dividend stocks and technology stocks. Additionally, sectors with strong performance and relative undervaluation, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, are gaining attention [1][3] - In the U.S. stock market, Q2 earnings have exceeded expectations, particularly in the technology sector, which has been a strong catalyst for market performance. As of July 27, 2025, 66.2% of companies reported revenues above expectations, and 77.1% reported profit growth exceeding forecasts [3][6] - The U.S. has seen a shift in trade policies, with agreements reached with Japan and the EU, which may ease tariff pressures and support economic recovery [2][6] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index have shown significant gains, with increases of 2.3% and 2.5% respectively in the past week. The financial and healthcare sectors have seen substantial inflows, while the telecommunications sector has experienced outflows [4][17] - The report highlights that the overall market is supported by institutional investors' preferences for dividend stocks and technology stocks, which are expected to drive further market growth [1][3] U.S. Market - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5%, the Dow Jones by 1.3%, and the Nasdaq by 1% in the past week, driven by improved trade policies and positive sentiment in the technology sector [1][3] - The report notes that the U.S. economy is transitioning from a "policy detox" phase to an "economic recovery" phase, supported by lower interest rates, tax cuts, and reduced tariffs [6][5] - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in the U.S. stock market, with a focus on the upcoming trade negotiations and economic data releases [5][39] Global Market Trends - Both developed and emerging markets have seen gains, with developed markets up 1.5% and emerging markets up 0.7% in the past week. The report emphasizes the overall positive sentiment across global markets [4][9] - The report indicates a slowdown in net inflows for global equity ETFs, while bond ETFs have seen accelerated inflows, suggesting a shift in investor preferences [7][35]
特朗普始终不松口,韩国对美国下手了,李在明果然留了一手
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 04:03
Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the trade negotiations between the US and South Korea, with South Korea facing pressure after Japan secured a significant investment deal with the US [1][5] - The US has set a deadline for negotiations, threatening to impose tariffs on South Korean products if an agreement is not reached by August 1, 2025 [3][5] - South Korea has drawn a "red line" in negotiations, stating that it will not compromise on agricultural products such as rice and beef, which are crucial for its domestic market [7][9] Group 2 - Japan's recent agreement with the US has set a high benchmark for South Korea, complicating its negotiation position as it seeks to avoid unfavorable terms [5][11] - South Korea's strategy includes leveraging over $100 billion in corporate investments to negotiate better tariff rates, while also considering the establishment of an investment fund similar to Japan's [7][11] - The broader context shows that other countries, including India and Malaysia, are also resisting US demands, indicating a potential shift in global trade dynamics [9][11]