Core Insights - The event highlighted the growing importance of the global oil market and the role of Chinese derivatives in it [1][3] - The participation of over 110 representatives from more than 40 major oil companies and financial institutions indicates strong interest and engagement in the sector [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) hosted a global oil market seminar in Singapore, organized by Galaxy Futures, Galaxy Overseas, and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange [1] - This marks the second consecutive year that Galaxy Futures has held an in-depth oil market conference in Singapore [1] Group 2: Key Discussions - Experts discussed opportunities in the Chinese derivatives market, macroeconomic trends between China and the U.S., and the global oil market landscape [3] - Presentations included insights on the stable operation of Shanghai crude oil futures and the progress of natural gas futures listings [3] - A macroeconomic analysis was provided regarding the U.S.-China tariff negotiations and investment outlook [3] Group 3: Company Positioning - Galaxy Futures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Galaxy Securities, has been engaged in international business since 2010 and has maintained a leading position in the industry since the launch of crude oil futures in 2018 [4] - The company is enhancing its technology, trading, delivery, and risk control to meet the diverse needs of overseas clients [4] - Future plans include providing cross-border services and solutions for both Chinese and global markets, along with educational initiatives to inform foreign investors about the Chinese futures market [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress is planning a delegation visit to China, driven by business interests and traditional political forces, amidst contrasting actions from the Trump administration [3][5] - Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on imports from China and India, particularly targeting those purchasing Russian oil, reflects a strategy to exert economic pressure rather than a genuine trade policy [6][9] - Major U.S. companies like Ford and Apple are lobbying Congress to ease trade tensions, as high tariffs could significantly impact their market share in China [5] Group 2 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to disrupt China's advancements in high-tech sectors, but past experiences show that such measures may lead to production shifts to other regions, diminishing the intended impact [9][14] - The European Union is hesitant to follow Trump's lead on tariffs, recognizing that aligning with U.S. policies could harm their own economic interests, particularly in sectors like automotive and agriculture [11][14] - The evolving dynamics suggest that emerging economies like China and India are diversifying their trade relationships, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, while the EU is asserting its independence from U.S. directives [14][17]

Core Insights - The world is undergoing significant changes, including a technological revolution, geopolitical restructuring, and domestic policy optimization, leading to unprecedented challenges in the global economic order [1] - The return of Trump to the White House has reignited market concerns regarding tariff policies, trade friction, and globalization risks [1] - The upcoming lecture by Professor Zhu Ning aims to analyze the logic, impacts, and China's responses to tariff negotiations from multiple perspectives [1] Event Details - Date and Time: September 25, 18:30-20:30 [4] - Location: 211 Huaihai West Road, Room 1006, Shanghai [4] - Speaker: Professor Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, with extensive experience in academia and investment banking [4][6] Research Focus - Professor Zhu Ning's research areas include behavioral finance, China's macroeconomy and financial markets, short selling, bankruptcy and restructuring, corporate finance, and mergers and acquisitions [6] - He has published over 20 high-level academic papers in top international journals and authored several bestselling books translated into multiple languages [6] Relevant Topics - The lecture will cover global risks during Trump's term, China's economic transformation amidst these risks, and focus areas such as the real estate market, trade negotiations, the "Great Beauty Act," and stablecoins [5]

Core Viewpoint - The world is undergoing significant changes, including a technological revolution, geopolitical restructuring, and domestic policy optimization, leading to unprecedented challenges for the global economic and trade order [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - A public lecture will be held on September 25, focusing on the logic, impact, and China's response to tariff negotiations [2]. - The lecture will cover topics such as Trump's tariff policies, global risks during his term, and the transformation of the Chinese economy under these risks [4]. Group 2: Speaker Profile - Professor Zhu Ning is a finance professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has held various prestigious academic positions, including at Tsinghua University and the University of California [8]. - Zhu Ning has extensive experience in the finance industry, having served as an executive at Lehman Brothers and Nomura Securities, and has published over 20 high-level academic papers in top international journals [9]. Group 3: Course Details - The public lecture is organized by Yicai Media in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, aiming to address pressing topics of concern for businesses [10].

Core Points - Japan's negotiation team views the reduction of auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% as a significant victory, despite the fact that the previous tariff was only 2.5% [1][3] - The automotive industry accounts for 8% of Japan's employment, making it a critical area for negotiation [3] - The new tariff structure will increase costs significantly for Japanese automakers, with an estimated annual profit reduction of over $4 billion [6] - Japan is required to increase its import of U.S. rice by 75% and open an $8 billion agricultural procurement quota, which will negatively impact local farmers [6][8] - The $550 billion investment from Japan will be directed towards five key sectors in the U.S., including LNG facilities, semiconductor manufacturing, critical mineral extraction, pharmaceutical production, and military shipbuilding [10] - Japanese companies are adjusting their supply chains, with Toyota increasing local parts sourcing in North America from 60% to 90%, affecting orders from Chinese factories [16][18] - The U.S. is establishing a "U.S.-Japan Supply Chain Resilience Working Group" to monitor critical products and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [22] - Japan's economic recovery is further complicated by the need to expand monetary easing due to the impact of the investment agreement [22] Automotive Industry - The reduction of tariffs on Japanese cars will lead to increased costs for manufacturers, with an additional $3,750 per vehicle exported [6] - Japanese automakers are accelerating the establishment of production facilities in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [6][10] Agricultural Sector - The agreement mandates a significant increase in U.S. agricultural imports, which will disrupt local agricultural markets in Japan [8][20] - Japanese farmers are facing challenges due to the influx of cheaper U.S. agricultural products [8][20] Investment and Economic Impact - The $550 billion investment is seen as a way for Japan to support U.S. industries while potentially undermining its own competitive advantages [10][22] - The investment will require Japan to continue its monetary easing policies, impacting the yen's value and domestic consumption [22] Supply Chain Adjustments - Japanese companies are shifting their supply chains, with a notable decrease in exports to the U.S. and a focus on localizing production [18] - The semiconductor supply chain is also being restructured, with Japanese firms prioritizing U.S. production over exports to Taiwan [18] U.S. Strategic Interests - The agreement aligns Japan's economic strategies with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," reinforcing U.S. influence in the region [22] - The U.S. is leveraging this agreement to monitor and control critical supply chains, particularly in technology and defense sectors [22]

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the U.S. government, particularly through tariffs on imported furniture, has led to significant adjustments in the global supply chain, impacting Chinese furniture companies and U.S. home improvement giant Home Depot, which has seen a decline in net profit [1] - The book "Tariff Game" provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and contemporary implications of tariffs as a tool for national power, highlighting the stark contrast between G20 tariff commitments and actual practices [2] - The complexity of the tariff landscape in 2025 is illustrated through various case studies, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum and Chinese graphite, which have forced companies to relocate production and adapt to new market conditions [3] Group 2 - The book proposes actionable solutions to break the cycle of "tariff-war-inflation-recession," including the Singapore variable tariff system and the exploration of new tax regimes for cross-border data flow [4] - The emergence of 3D printing technology and the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with transaction volumes exceeding $4 trillion, challenge traditional tariff systems and necessitate the development of a "tariff elasticity mechanism" [4] - "Tariff Game" serves as a key to understanding the dynamics of international relations in the 21st century, providing insights for policymakers and business leaders navigating the evolving landscape of global trade [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - level, during the reporting period, the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuated. At the beginning of August, the labor market data pushed up the expectation of a 50bp rate cut in September. However, Fed officials later down - regulated this expectation. In terms of cost, nickel ore supply is becoming looser, with price changes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fundamentally, nickel - iron imports shrank, prices rose, and steel mill production increases were poor. The sulfuric acid market maintained its heat, but the growth of supply was limited by raw materials. The pure - nickel market had average trading. Later, as the interest - rate cut approaches, the nickel price may rise, with steel mills expected to increase production and replenish raw materials in September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the interest - rate cut expectation. At the beginning of the month, the poor non - farm payrolls data and potential rate cuts pushed up nickel prices. In the middle, hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in nickel prices. At the end, dovish remarks from Powell restored nickel prices. Overall, the price fluctuations were limited. The spot premium and discount remained stable, with Jinchuan nickel in the 2100 - 2600 range and imported nickel in the 300 - 600 range [8][9]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Trump's tariff diplomacy was widespread in August, with trade frictions between the US and many countries. The US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policies may affect future tariff disturbances. The US economic data was not optimistic, with inflation rising, the labor market weakening, and consumer spending conservative. There was a risk of stagflation. However, the upcoming rate cut in September may boost market sentiment [13][14][15]. Domestic - China's economic data was relatively stable in August. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. Inventory circulation was smooth. However, inflation data was mixed, and consumer spending was not strong. The domestic economy relied heavily on fiscal support, with government bond financing playing a major role in social financing. There were still structural risks [16][17]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply and Cost - Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to be looser, with a decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in late August. In July, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories rose. However, high - grade nickel ore remained in short supply [18][20]. Smelting Profit and Supply - In August, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year. In July, the smelting profit of integrated electrowinning nickel improved, but it may decline in August due to rising costs and falling nickel prices. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia, while exports also increased. Currently, export profits are in a loss state, which may affect future exports [21][23]. Nickel - Iron Cost and Demand - In July, the price of high - nickel pig iron first fell and then rose. In August, the production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants improved, but cost pressure remained. In September, the production of stainless steel is expected to increase, which may improve the profit of nickel - iron smelting. In July, the import of nickel - iron increased slightly, and the import and export of stainless steel showed different trends [25][26][27]. Sulfuric Nickel Market - In August, the price of sulfuric nickel showed a differentiated trend. The production of sulfuric nickel decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The inventory of the industry chain decreased, indicating smooth resource circulation. The profit of high - ice - nickel to sulfuric nickel was positive, while other processes were in the red. In July, imports increased, and exports decreased slightly [30][31]. New Energy Vehicle Market - From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down in July. In July, the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In the future, the growth rate of consumption will slow down, but there is still room for growth, and subsidy policies will play a supporting role [34][35]. Inventory Situation - As of August 29, domestic refined nickel social inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. In the future, with the import window open and limited domestic supply growth, and considering the production increase of steel mills and the seasonal peak of the power end, inventory may decrease during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [37][38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: There is no maintenance plan at home and abroad, but the smelting profit is expected to decline, and domestic production is expected to be stable but weak. The import window is open, and overseas resources may flow in [40]. - Demand: Steel mills' production is expected to increase, and the largest demand terminal may replenish inventory. The growth rate of the power terminal has slowed down but still has growth potential [40]. - Cost: Nickel ore supply is becoming looser, and the cost center is expected to move down [40]. - Macro: As the interest - rate cut approaches, the macro - expectation is positive, but tariff disturbances should be watched out for. Overall, the nickel price may rise as the interest - rate cut nears, with the replenishment expectation of steel mills and positive macro - sentiment [40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals declaring Trump's tariffs illegal has reignited the tariff debate, while Powell's dovish stance at Jackson Hole has increased the certainty of rate cuts in the medium term, suggesting that liquidity conditions will continue to resonate both domestically and internationally, with industrial and precious metals expected to perform well as the peak demand season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's global tariffs are "illegal," leading to renewed uncertainty in tariff negotiations, although the tariffs will remain in effect until mid-October [1]. - Powell's unexpected dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with political pressures, enhance the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term [1][2]. - The combination of a loose domestic monetary environment and ongoing international liquidity conditions is expected to support precious metals, despite potential short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The tariff debate may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the dovish Fed stance and adjusted inflation targets provide upward support for precious metals [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for August were reported at 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, indicating economic resilience and supporting inflation expectations, which in turn bolster precious metal prices [2]. - Long-term risks related to U.S. government debt and challenges to the dollar's status may lead to continued strong performance of gold in a restructured global monetary system [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Performance - With Powell signaling rate cuts and the Chinese government emphasizing fiscal and financial support to boost domestic demand, industrial metals are expected to benefit from improving demand expectations [2]. - The transition from off-peak to peak demand seasons, coupled with low inventory levels for major industrial metals, suggests a favorable supply-demand balance that could support prices [2]. - Seasonal disruptions in supply due to maintenance and other factors, alongside rising demand, may lead to a marginally improved supply-demand dynamic for industrial metals [2].

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. starting August 27 is a significant escalation in trade tensions, reflecting the complexities of U.S.-India relations and India's strategic responses to U.S. pressure [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. has accused India of purchasing Russian oil, which has led to heightened tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][7]. - India's response includes suspending a $3.6 billion Boeing P-8I procurement and imposing a 70% retaliatory tariff on U.S. agricultural products, targeting key U.S. agricultural states [2][4]. - The tariff could potentially reduce India's GDP growth by 40 to 60 basis points, with Citibank predicting a decrease of 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points in annual economic growth [4][8]. Group 2: India's Strategic Responses - India is adopting a dual strategy of "hard confrontation" and "soft compromise," including lowering domestic GST to boost internal demand and seeking new markets in the Middle East and Africa [4][10]. - Modi's diplomatic efforts include attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and reviving trade relations with China, indicating a shift towards reducing dependence on the U.S. [4][10]. - The long-term goal for India may involve reducing reliance on the U.S. and finding new trade partners, which could ultimately benefit its economy [10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The U.S. tariff strategy may not yield significant financial benefits for the U.S. as Indian exporters are less likely to absorb the increased costs, leading them to seek alternative markets [7][8]. - The potential for a trade agreement could involve a reduction of tariffs, contingent on India continuing to purchase U.S. military equipment and aircraft [9][10]. - India's market dynamics suggest that while domestic consumption can partially offset lost exports to the U.S., the overall economic impact remains a pressing concern [9][10].

Cost Structure and Production - The integrated cost of electrolytic aluminum for the first half of 2025 is stable at 13,900 RMB/ton [3] - The procurement price of bauxite has decreased to around 75 USD/ton after effective inventory digestion [3] - The production volume for aluminum ingots in the first half of 2025 is approximately 580,000 tons, and for alumina, it is about 1.2 million tons [5] Project Development and Capacity Expansion - The 200,000 tons electrolytic aluminum project is expected to start production by the end of November 2025, with full capacity release in 2026 [4] - The Indonesian alumina project is progressing smoothly, currently in the detailed exploration phase [4] Financial Performance and Dividends - The company distributed a cash dividend of 2 RMB per 10 shares in May 2025, totaling 922,244,323 RMB [4] - Future cash dividends are planned to be no less than 30% of the distributable profits each year [4] Market Outlook and Demand - The domestic aluminum demand is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by emerging industries such as new energy and photovoltaics [6] - The global tariff disputes on aluminum products are anticipated to have limited impact on domestic business [5] Cost Improvement Strategies - Cost improvements for electrolytic aluminum are expected through the elimination of raw material cost lag effects and optimization of electricity costs [6] - The mining cost of Guangxi bauxite is significantly lower than current market prices, providing a cost advantage [6] High-Purity Aluminum Market - The high-purity aluminum market has shown recovery in 2025, with plans to focus on core markets and explore high-end applications [6]