Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to go long. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the demand side remains favorable due to the suspension of tariffs, particularly for aluminum, which is recommended for investment [5] - Tungsten prices continue to rise due to tightened production indicators and environmental inspections, with a 14.84% increase since early April. The report highlights strong demand from the manufacturing sector and potential applications in high-tech industries [6] - The rare earth market is experiencing price stabilization, with potential easing of export controls. The report advises investors to consider buying on dips as the market awaits developments regarding export regulations [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.5%, ranking 16th among sectors [13] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals prices: LME copper decreased by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, zinc by 1.27%, lead increased by 0.65%, and tin decreased by 0.03%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 1.51%, silver by 1.99%, while palladium rose by 1.15% and platinum fell by 2.37% [20][21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase of 28,367 tons for copper, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, zinc decreased by 3,175 tons, lead decreased by 1,697 tons, and nickel decreased by 3,740 tons [27]

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the residual oil market has decreased in April, but downstream demand remains limited, leading to an overall decline in prices, with a slight narrowing of the decline [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In April, the average price of low-sulfur residual oil was 4260 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 7.99% from the beginning of the month, while the average price of medium-sulfur residual oil was 4080 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 5.56% [1]. - The average operating load of domestic major refineries in April was 75.35%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points month-on-month, while the average operating load of Shandong independent refineries was 54.74%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [6]. - The actual external supply of residual oil in April was around 360,000 tons, a decrease of 27.21% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Price Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by moderate rebound, with the WTI average price at $62.96/barrel, down $4.98/barrel or 7.33% month-on-month, and the Brent average price at $66.46/barrel, down $5.01/barrel or 7.01% [4]. - The average profit of Shandong independent refineries' coking units in April was 337 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating reduced profitability and lower procurement willingness for residual oil [8]. Future Outlook - For May, residual oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with limited upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and continued weakening of cost support [10][11]. - The forecast for low-sulfur residual oil prices is between 4015-4380 yuan/ton, while medium-sulfur residual oil prices are expected to range from 3850-4200 yuan/ton [12].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

关税前美国"抢消费 " 。 从零售增速来看， 2025 年 3 月美国零售销售同比增速升至 4.9% ，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最高水平， 3 月环比增速升至 1.5% ，或反映美国居民在关税预期下抢先消费。 一方面， 美国非 农数据显示， 2024 年 6 月以来，美国名义时薪同比增速稳定在 4% 左右，实际时薪增速同比增速在 1% 附近波动，薪资收入增长依旧较为稳定。 但另一方面， 居民超额储蓄即将耗尽，信用卡贷款利率仍在高 位，后续消费需求或有所减弱。由于关税不确定性打击消费信心， 2025 年 4 月密歇根消费者信心指数大 幅下降至 52.2 ，指向未来美国消费或仍将放缓。 报 告 正 文 进口"转换"为投资。 美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比折年率转负至 -0.3% ，实际同比增速回落至 2% ，显示 经济走弱。 一方面，进口大增拖累 GDP 增速。在关税预期下，美国企业"抢进口"， 一季度进口环比折年 率跃升至 41.3% 。根据 BEA ，进口产品主要为药品等消费品，以及计算机设备等资本品。 另一方面，进 口货物被用于投资，设备投资和私人库存增速大幅走高。 一季度投资环比折年率升至 ...

关税预期推升铜价！含铜量高的大成有色ETF(159980)连续7周获资金净流入 投资风向标 相关媒体报道称，美国即将迎来一波规模庞大的铜货运潮，预计未来几周将有10-15万吨精炼铜抵达美国，若全部在同一个月内到达，将超过2022年1月 创下的136951吨历史记录。对此，业内知名铜行业交易员表示，"大量铜涌入美国，将使世界其他地区——尤其是那些最主要的铜消费国面临严重的供应短 缺。我们认为铜市场正在发生非同寻常的事情。" 国盛证券表示，关税预期下现货紧缺推升铜价，静待宏观刺激后下游需求释放。信达期货指出，需求旺季支撑铜需求，加上国内宏观情绪偏暖和海外消 息缓解矿端紧缩担忧，后续铜价或维持偏强走势。 IMCI指数（上期有色金属指数）由上海期货交易所铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、锡六种有色金属期货合约构成，覆盖全面，其中铜占比接近50%，该指数直 接反映有色金属实物价格，或将直接受益于铜价上涨。 相关产品方面，作为市场唯一跟踪IMCI指数（上期有色金属指数）的大成有色ETF(159980)今日早盘表现强势，震荡涨近1%。截至3月21日，成有色 ETF(159980)近7周获得连续资金净流入。 | 报告期 | 流通份额(亿份 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry or related options strategies [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is influencing copper prices, with tariff expectations affecting inflation transmission, leading to a bearish outlook due to weak U.S. economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve [4][12]. - Domestic policy expectations during the Two Sessions period are relatively positive, contrasting with global trends [4][12]. - Supply disruptions are intensifying, with spot TC falling to negative values and refining losses worsening compared to last year, despite high copper prices and stable refined production [4][12]. - The price range for copper is expected to oscillate between 75,000 and 78,000, with recent attempts to breach 77,500 being unsuccessful [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In February 2025, copper prices experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai copper contract reaching a maximum of 78,740 CNY/ton and a minimum of 75,000 CNY/ton, closing at 76,840 CNY/ton, reflecting a monthly increase of 1.51% [7]. - London copper mirrored this trend, with a peak of 9,684.5 USD/ton and a low of 8,914.5 USD/ton, closing at 9,361.0 USD/ton, marking a monthly increase of 3.46% [7]. 2. Options Market Review - Total copper options trading volume in February 2025 was 1,475,487 contracts, an increase of 302,502 contracts from the previous month, with a latest open interest of 66,851 contracts, up by 14,864 contracts [8]. - The main contract CU2504 saw a total trading volume of 388,954 contracts, with an open interest of 48,459 contracts, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [9]. 3. Volatility Analysis - The short-term historical volatility for Shanghai copper fell significantly, with the latest 10-day historical volatility at 9.64%, down from 14.06% [10]. - The implied volatility for the main CU2504 contract decreased to 12.26%, down from 14.21%, indicating a substantial drop in market expectations for future price movements [11]. 4. Options Strategy Recommendations - Given the current market conditions, it is recommended to sell call options at high copper price points, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound state due to tariff expectations [12].