Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices strengthened at the end of the week after fluctuations, with tariff expectation pricing disturbing the market again. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, but this driver is not strong enough to sustain the upward trend of the market. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and attention should be paid to changes in employment conditions. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate is still at a restrictive level, and the next rate cut may be a "recessionary rate cut" [5][85]. - The problem of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, and the refined copper output in May reached a new high. Domestic demand has seasonally weakened, the copper product operating rate has declined, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories has weakened. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games. After the price increase of COMEX copper, the price relationship is COMEX copper > LME copper > Shanghai copper, and the domestic spot buying has weakened [6][86]. - It is recommended to consider selling CALL options for the near - month contracts and buying PUT options for the far - month contracts [6][86]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's manufacturing increased by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but it has been below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months, and the demand side is under pressure due to tariff games [12]. - The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, and the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has widened to over $1000, but the driving force is not as strong as the previous time [5][13][85]. Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, the global copper mine output was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual output in 2024 was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, the global copper mine output was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025 and 180,000 tons in February [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores; from January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [24]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 6, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $43.29 per dry ton, an increase of $0.27 from the previous period. The second mid - year negotiation between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta has not started yet [28]. Refined Copper Output - In May, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative output increased by 544,800 tons, a rise of 11.09%. It is estimated that the output in June will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.63%, but a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, a rise of 12.55% [36]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%; in December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%; in December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [45]. Refined - Scrap Spread - In May, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 29.92%, lower than the expected 32.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13%. In June, as orders approach the delivery period, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises may increase slightly [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, the cumulative power investment from January to December was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [52]. - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly output of air - conditioners was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; from January to December 2024, the cumulative output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to April 2025, the output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with a decreasing growth rate [56]. - **Automobiles**: In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 4.429 million and 4.3 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively [60]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the cumulative real estate completion area from January to December was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In April 2025, the completion area was 156 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%, and the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 6, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 427,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,614 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 132,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,400 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 7,250 tons to 187,900 tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 58,000 tons as of June 5, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [65]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 3, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,094 lots, a weekly increase of 1,513 lots. The non - commercial long position was 71,249 lots, a weekly increase of 1,305 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 47,155 lots, a weekly decrease of 208 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 6, the LME copper spot premium was $69.84 per ton. The LME copper spot has turned to a premium and is rising. Attention should be paid to the potential risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. The domestic spot market has a large price difference between different brands, and attention should be paid to the risk of an expanded monthly spread next week [79]. Basis - As of June 6, 2025, the basis between the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 80 yuan per ton [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Gold had a phased rebound driven by risk - aversion sentiment, and silver was particularly strong under the impetus of interest - rate cut expectations. The silver price reached a new high since 2013 on Thursday night. Future market trends depend on the non - farm payroll report and the Fed's policy guidance. If the non - farm payroll data is better than expected, the gold price may face downward pressure; otherwise, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may boost the prices of precious metals. In the long run, Trump's tariff policy, the US debt issue, and economic slowdown form triple pressures, which are structurally beneficial to the precious metals market. The continuous inflow of funds into the silver ETF and the significant increase in positions may indicate strong upward momentum for silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to decline [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was volatile and upward - trending. Gold rebounded due to risk - aversion sentiment, and silver was strong due to interest - rate cut expectations. The Trump administration's tariff policy, weak US economic data, and geopolitical risks all affected the market. The global gold ETF had a net outflow of $1.58 billion in May, while the silver ETF had a continuous inflow [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll report and Fed policy guidance. If the non - farm payroll data is better than expected, the gold price may fall; otherwise, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will be boosted. If the Fed cuts rates, silver may remain strong. In the long run, the precious metals market is structurally beneficial, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. The suggested price ranges for relevant contracts are provided [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of June 6, 2025, COMEX silver was at $35.67 per ounce, up 8.16% month - on - month; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8,830 yuan per kilogram, up 7.47%. COMEX gold was at $3,352.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 783.24 yuan per gram, up 1.48% [12]. - **ETF Positions**: As of June 5, 2025, the SLV silver ETF position was 14,673 tons, up 2.60% month - on - month; the SPDR gold ETF position was 935.65 tons, up 0.60% [17]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of May 27, 2025, the COMEX gold net position was 174,184, up 6.22% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 53,012, up 5.94% [21]. - **Basis Changes**: As of June 6, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.24 yuan per gram, down 25% month - on - month; the silver basis was 19 yuan per kilogram, down 56.8% [24]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 17,847 kilograms, up 3.48%; the silver inventory was 1,117,940 kilograms, up 4.79% [29]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of April 2025, China's silver import volume was 280,638.23 kilograms, up 13.56% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and concentrates was 123,247,164 kilograms, down 4.55% [35]. - **Downstream Production**: As of April 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4,170,000 pieces, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [39]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: As of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [44][48]. Gold - **Price Changes**: As of June 5, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 779 yuan per gram, up 0.32% month - on - month. The prices of gold products from major brands all increased [52]. - **Demand Changes**: As of the first quarter of 2025, the gold investment demand was 50,741 ounces, up 71.93% month - on - month; the total demand was 120,440.4 ounces, up 7.12% month - on - month. The gold ETF had a net outflow in May [54][58]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield both declined. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased. In May 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [60][65][75].

Economic Overview - The trade agreement between China and the U.S. has led to the postponement of a 24% tariff increase by 90 days until August, while retaining a 30% tariff increase for the year[22] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction, with the LPR lowered by 10 basis points at the end of the month[22] - As of May 30, the TS2509 futures fell by 0.23%, TF2509 by 0.36%, T2509 by 0.43%, and TL2506 by 1.40%[22] Market Performance - The two-year bond TS2506 closed at 102.23 with a decline of 0.13% and an average daily transaction volume of 20,925[6] - The five-year bond TF2506 closed at 105.72, down 0.36%, with a daily trading volume of 35,919[6] - The ten-year bond T2506 closed at 108.49, down 0.51%, with a trading volume of 44,240[6] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The CPI for May showed a decrease of 0.10% compared to the previous month, while the PPI decreased by 2.70%[28] - Industrial value-added growth was reported at 6.1%, indicating continued manufacturing sector strength[28] - The trade surplus reached $36.88 billion in May, reflecting strong export performance despite tariff concerns[28] Future Outlook - The market anticipates a potential shift in tariff negotiations, which could stabilize bond futures and lead to a price increase[32] - The central bank's liquidity injection of 599.8 billion yuan in May, including a net MLF injection of 375 billion yuan, suggests ongoing support for the economy[33] - The expectation of a return to a more stable economic environment may lead to a gradual recovery in bond prices as trade tensions ease[37]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current concerns of investors regarding macro interest rates, credit, and convertible bonds, and provides insights on these topics [2][12]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Bond interest rates are positively correlated with domestic demand and negatively correlated with external demand, indicating that despite unexpected tariff changes, the core contradiction in the bond market remains focused on domestic demand [3][14]. - The liquidity environment is improving gradually, with funding rates decreasing from around 1.8% to a range of 1.4%-1.6%, suggesting that negative carry is becoming a thing of the past [4][19]. - The long-end interest rates, particularly the 10-year government bond, require a decline in deposit rates to facilitate further downward movement [20][21]. Group 2: Macro-Prudential Support - The People's Bank of China is focusing on macro-prudential measures to support the healthy development of the bond market, which includes monitoring risks and enhancing regulatory coordination [5][24]. - The current credit environment shows weak growth in broad credit, with local government bonds expanding, indicating that investors may face more interest rate risks [25]. Group 3: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to see a shift towards stronger credit performance and weaker interest rates, driven by a decrease in deposit rates and increased allocation towards credit bonds by wealth management products [7][28]. - The performance of credit strategies is likely to favor short to medium-term bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 2-3 years, with a ranking of value from city investment bonds to industry bonds [8][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The recent surge in sci-tech bonds presents unique investment opportunities, especially with new issuers and private sector participation, although investors should remain cautious of potential credit risks [10][32]. - The recommendation for a near-term convertible bond strategy is based on the increasing market focus on bonds with shorter maturities, particularly those with a strong repayment capability [11][34].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to consider long positions. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the price difference between New York and London copper is narrowing, which may indicate a loss of arbitrage profits [5] - Tungsten prices have continued to rise, increasing by 14.84% since early April due to reduced mining quotas and environmental inspections, leading to supply constraints [6] - The report suggests that rare earth export controls may be relaxed, and it recommends positioning for potential opportunities as the market remains cautious [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper decrease by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, and zinc by 1.27%. Precious metals experienced a decline in COMEX gold by 1.51% and silver by 1.99% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible copper inventory increased by 28,367 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, and zinc decreased by 3,175 tons [27]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to go long. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the demand side remains favorable due to the suspension of tariffs, particularly for aluminum, which is recommended for investment [5] - Tungsten prices continue to rise due to tightened production indicators and environmental inspections, with a 14.84% increase since early April. The report highlights strong demand from the manufacturing sector and potential applications in high-tech industries [6] - The rare earth market is experiencing price stabilization, with potential easing of export controls. The report advises investors to consider buying on dips as the market awaits developments regarding export regulations [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.5%, ranking 16th among sectors [13] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals prices: LME copper decreased by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, zinc by 1.27%, lead increased by 0.65%, and tin decreased by 0.03%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 1.51%, silver by 1.99%, while palladium rose by 1.15% and platinum fell by 2.37% [20][21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase of 28,367 tons for copper, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, zinc decreased by 3,175 tons, lead decreased by 1,697 tons, and nickel decreased by 3,740 tons [27]

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the residual oil market has decreased in April, but downstream demand remains limited, leading to an overall decline in prices, with a slight narrowing of the decline [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In April, the average price of low-sulfur residual oil was 4260 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 7.99% from the beginning of the month, while the average price of medium-sulfur residual oil was 4080 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 5.56% [1]. - The average operating load of domestic major refineries in April was 75.35%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points month-on-month, while the average operating load of Shandong independent refineries was 54.74%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [6]. - The actual external supply of residual oil in April was around 360,000 tons, a decrease of 27.21% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6]. Price Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by moderate rebound, with the WTI average price at $62.96/barrel, down $4.98/barrel or 7.33% month-on-month, and the Brent average price at $66.46/barrel, down $5.01/barrel or 7.01% [4]. - The average profit of Shandong independent refineries' coking units in April was 337 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating reduced profitability and lower procurement willingness for residual oil [8]. Future Outlook - For May, residual oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with limited upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and continued weakening of cost support [10][11]. - The forecast for low-sulfur residual oil prices is between 4015-4380 yuan/ton, while medium-sulfur residual oil prices are expected to range from 3850-4200 yuan/ton [12].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold and silver showing volatility after the April non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations. The easing of tariff expectations and the appreciation of the offshore RMB may exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Copper prices are expected to oscillate around $9,300 due to intertwined trade and macro pricing dynamics, with recent tariff expectations improving market sentiment [5] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise in the short term due to strong domestic demand, but potential weakness is anticipated starting in the second half of 2025 [5] - Antimony prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints, while tin prices are under pressure from anticipated restarts in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.7%, ranking 20th among sectors [13] 2. Prices - Basic metals saw slight declines: LME copper down 0.04%, aluminum down 0.14%, zinc down 1.15%, lead down 0.69%, and tin down 3.42%. Precious metals also faced declines, with COMEX gold down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% [18] 3. Inventory - Global visible inventories showed a decrease: copper down 2,489 tons, aluminum down 8,027 tons, zinc down 4,552 tons, lead down 4,721 tons, tin down 267 tons, and nickel down 432 tons [24]

关税前美国"抢消费 " 。 从零售增速来看， 2025 年 3 月美国零售销售同比增速升至 4.9% ，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最高水平， 3 月环比增速升至 1.5% ，或反映美国居民在关税预期下抢先消费。 一方面， 美国非 农数据显示， 2024 年 6 月以来，美国名义时薪同比增速稳定在 4% 左右，实际时薪增速同比增速在 1% 附近波动，薪资收入增长依旧较为稳定。 但另一方面， 居民超额储蓄即将耗尽，信用卡贷款利率仍在高 位，后续消费需求或有所减弱。由于关税不确定性打击消费信心， 2025 年 4 月密歇根消费者信心指数大 幅下降至 52.2 ，指向未来美国消费或仍将放缓。 报 告 正 文 进口"转换"为投资。 美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比折年率转负至 -0.3% ，实际同比增速回落至 2% ，显示 经济走弱。 一方面，进口大增拖累 GDP 增速。在关税预期下，美国企业"抢进口"， 一季度进口环比折年 率跃升至 41.3% 。根据 BEA ，进口产品主要为药品等消费品，以及计算机设备等资本品。 另一方面，进 口货物被用于投资，设备投资和私人库存增速大幅走高。 一季度投资环比折年率升至 ...