Group 1 - The U.S. and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, with Vietnam opening its market to the U.S. and agreeing to pay a 20% tariff, along with a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods [1] - The U.S. agriculture sector is expected to benefit from the trade agreement with Vietnam [1] - Kazakhstan has announced the halt of construction on the Karachaganak gas processing plant [1] Group 2 - Indonesia plans to increase its crude oil production to 1 million barrels per day [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil imports from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019 [1] - OPEC's 12 member countries increased their production by 360,000 barrels per day in June, averaging 28 million barrels per day, with approximately two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [1]

Group 1 - Iran is preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid the outbreak of conflict with Israel [1] - Russia will temporarily reduce fuel exports to stabilize the exchange rate [2] - Iraq reports that imports of Iranian natural gas have decreased by half [3] Group 2 - Mexico's oil production has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1970s [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that if OPEC+ decides to increase production, the market is unlikely to react significantly as expectations have already shifted in that direction [5] - Shipping intelligence firm Kpler reports that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June to 6.33 million barrels per day, the highest level in over a year [6] Group 3 - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% compared to May, reaching 1.88 million barrels per day, marking a historical high [7] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in the first half of the year grew by 13% year-on-year, reaching 1.79 million barrels per day [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity market in the second half of 2025 Core Insights - The global commodity market is influenced by the U.S. tariff policy, which affects various commodities differently, leading to increased price volatility and risk [1][4] - Two major factors are expected to impact the commodity market in the second half of 2025: fundamental changes and cost support levels [1][5] - The effectiveness of agricultural commodity CTA strategies has increased due to the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global commodity prices [1][6] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The outlook for the global commodity market in the second half of 2025 can be summarized by two main viewpoints: consensus expectations and changing factors [2] - Historical trends indicate that commodity markets often experience either broad increases or decreases, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies [2] Price Dynamics - Commodity prices being close to cost lines does not necessarily indicate future price declines; it requires consideration of fundamental changes and the reasons behind current cost distributions [3][8] - The oil market in the first half of 2025 showed poor performance due to a downward revision in global demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC sources [11] Specific Commodity Trends - Copper is expected to face short-term demand risks but maintains a reasonable price level due to long-term supply shortages [12] - Iron ore prices are projected to gradually decline to around 90 USD as the market becomes more balanced [13] - Gold has seen significant increases in ETF holdings, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset, although recent growth has plateaued [14] Structural Adjustments - The overall commodity market is anticipated to undergo structural adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a focus on supply-side variables and potential marginal cost reductions [15]

Oil Industry - Russian National Oil Pipeline Transport Company indicates that oil transportation will continue to decline through 2025 [4] - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm states that sanctions on Iranian oil remain effective [4] - Market rumors suggest OPEC+ is considering a significant increase in oil production [4] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak mentions that OPEC+ may discuss production increases on July 6 [4] - Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil oil field exported its first batch of oil to Germany via the Friendship pipeline in May [4] - Israeli refineries are expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [4] - Former President Trump claims to have completely destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities and suggests lifting sanctions if peace is achieved [4] Natural Gas and Energy - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm identifies natural gas, nuclear energy, and coal as key components for the future of the U.S. power grid [4] - Reports indicate that the short-term outlook for natural gas supply on Australia's east coast continues to deteriorate, with structural shortages expected from 2028 unless new supplies come online [4] Trade and Imports - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reports a 13.9% year-on-year increase in crude oil imports for May, while refined oil sales decreased by 4.2%, gasoline sales by 0.6%, and kerosene sales by 8.7% [4] - Indonesia's Trade Minister announces the easing of import measures covering forestry products, plastic materials, and certain fertilizers [4] - Indonesia has proposed joint investment in critical mineral "brownfield projects" to the U.S. as part of tariff negotiations [4] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on automotive and aircraft parts between the U.S. and the UK has come into effect [4]

Oil Market - Citigroup predicts that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year [1] Natural Gas - LNG carriers have been spotted near Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project for the first time in months [2] - The EIA reported that as of the week ending June 20, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 28,980 billion cubic feet, an increase of 960 billion cubic feet from the previous week, with a year-on-year decline of 6.3% and a 6.6% increase compared to the five-year average [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Supply concerns have driven spot platinum prices to their highest level since 2014 [3] - The London Metal Exchange's key daily copper price spread reached its highest level since 2021 [3] - The Hong Kong government reported that gold exports to mainland China in May totaled 57.76 tons, down from 58.61 tons, with net gold exports of 48.127 tons, up from 43.462 tons [3] Other Commodities - Weak coal prices are putting pressure on the credit status of Asian coal producers [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that the tax legislation will ultimately lead to higher energy prices [5] - Reports indicate that Trump is leveraging U.S.-EU trade negotiations to pressure the EU and prevent oil giants from being constrained by climate regulations [5] - Due to declining Brent crude prices, the price of Ural crude oil at Russian ports has reportedly fallen below the price cap [5] - The U.S. is not expected to complete the planned delivery of strategic petroleum reserves before December, with only about 8.8 million barrels delivered out of a planned 15.8 million barrels by May [5] Agriculture - Thailand's Ministry of Commerce anticipates that rice exports will reach the target of 7.5 million tons this year [6]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Market - Japan's largest gas supplier, Tokyo Gas, is negotiating a long-term liquefied natural gas procurement agreement with the United States [1] - Shell is reportedly in preliminary talks to acquire BP [3] - If OPEC deems it necessary, Russia is willing to increase oil production again [3] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade states that the country's refinery will produce 7.7 million tons of oil products in the second half of the year [3] - Israel's Ministry of Energy has approved the resumption of operations at a natural gas field [3] - The Turpan to Zhongwei section of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline has been fully completed and put into operation [3] Group 2: Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices could reach a peak of $10,050 per ton this year [2]

Oil Market - Dubai set the official price for September crude oil at a discount of $10.00 per barrel compared to Oman crude [1] - Kazakhstan's national oil company expects Tengiz oil field's crude oil production to reach 35.7 million tons by 2025 [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm expressed confidence in oil market pricing [3] - Iraq's oil exports in May amounted to 101.6 million barrels [3] - Saudi Arabia's oil export value in April decreased by 21.2% year-on-year [3] - Qatar's Prime Minister discussed energy supply to Lebanon during the summer with the Lebanese Prime Minister [3] Metals and Mining - World Steel Association reported a 3.8% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production in May, totaling 158.8 million tons [2] - China's crude steel production in May fell by 6.9% year-on-year to 86 million tons [2] - A survey by the International Monetary Fund indicated that 32% of central bank reserve managers plan to increase their gold allocation over the next 12 to 24 months, the highest proportion in at least five years [2]

Report Title - The report title is "GOLDTRUST FUTURES Daily" [1][2] Report Date - The report date is June 25, 2025 [1] Core Views - For soybean oil futures, prices have continued to plummet recently. With sufficient soybean supply, increased oil production, reduced demand, and negative macro - factors, investors can take profit on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels. In the short - term, soybean oil may fluctuate or be strong, but it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase phase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and short with a light position [3][4][21] - For crude oil, after Iran and Israel announced a cease - fire, oil prices dropped significantly, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] - For A - shares, the three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] - For gold, although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term trend is still upward, and investors can buy in batches at low levels [12][13] - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. There is a risk of over - valuation, and the market should be viewed with a focus on the important support below [15][16] - For glass, the supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19][20] Industry Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply has led to an increase in oil mill crushing volume and a significant increase in soybean oil output [4] - **Demand**: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of edible oils enters the off - season, and market demand weakens seasonally. Substitute oils such as palm oil and rapeseed oil also compete for market share, further reducing soybean oil demand [4] - **Macro - factors**: Global economic growth uncertainty has pressured the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and market rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets have led to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a sharp decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4] Crude Oil - **Event Impact**: The cease - fire announcement between Iran and Israel has led to a significant drop in oil prices, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] A - shares - **Market Performance**: The three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] Gold - **Policy Impact**: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year have caused an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term trend is still upward [13] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [16] - **Technical View**: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and the market should be viewed with a volatile mindset [15] Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, resulting in weak demand. It is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [19][20] - **Technical View**: It rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（6月24日） 原油： 7. 伊拉克石油部官员：伊拉克南部油田的石油开采运营未受到人员撤离的影响，平均出口量为332万桶/ 日。 8. 联合石油数据库JODI：沙特4月份原油产量环比增加4.8万桶/日，达到900.5万桶/日，出口量环比增加 41.2万桶/日，至616.6万桶/日。 9. 汇丰：如果原油供应不受干扰，随着欧佩克+恢复产量以及需求下降，预计到第四季度油价将呈现下 行趋势。若考虑到霍尔木兹海峡关闭的较高可能性，预计布油价格将升至每桶80美元以上。预计布伦特 原油第二和第三季度价格为67美元/桶，之后为65美元/桶。 中东局势： 1. 特朗普称以伊停火已生效。 2. 以总理内塔尼亚胡：已实现消除伊朗核武器和弹道导弹威胁的目标。 布伦特原油 1. 特朗普呼吁压低油价，同时鼓励美国能源部加大钻探力度。 2. 俄罗斯六月份的炼油厂产量有望达到今年最高水平。 3. 消息人士：委内瑞拉第二大炼油厂因停电而停产。 4. 市场消息：中东油轮收益跃升至2023年以来的最高水平。 5. 日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 6. 消息人士 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, the soybean oil price plummeted. Investors are advised to take profits on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels [3][5]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to reach new highs in the long - term, and investors can buy in batches at low levels. Iron ore, glass, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, and specific trading strategies are provided for each [8][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply increases the oil mill's pressing volume and soybean oil output, intensifying the oversupply situation [4]. - Demand: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of oils and fats enters the off - season, and the demand weakens seasonally. Substitute products such as palm oil and rapeseed oil may seize market share [4]. - Macro and Policy: Uncertain global economic growth pressures the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets lead to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation, the oil market may be volatile or strong. But in the medium - term, it is in the season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profits on long positions and short with a light position [22]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: At the beginning of this week, the three major A - share indexes opened low and closed high with a mid -阳线, and the CSI 1000 had the best increase [9]. - Operation: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. But the long - term trend is still upward [13]. - Operation: Buy in batches at low levels [12]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories are rising again. The over - valuation risk of iron ore is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [16]. - Operation: Pay attention to the important support below and view it with an oscillatory perspective [15]. Glass - Market Situation: There is no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, so demand has not increased significantly [20]. - Operation: Wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements. View it with an oscillatory perspective [19].