Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

Market Performance - On September 3, A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% [1] - The Gold ETF (518880) increased by 1.28%, closing at 7.768 yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.94% and a trading volume of 4.159 billion yuan, ranking first among similar ETFs [1] Fund Flow - Over the past 20 trading days, the Gold ETF experienced a net outflow of 2.038 billion yuan, but in the last 5 trading days, it saw a net inflow of 460 million yuan [1] Gold Price Trends - International gold prices continued to rise, surpassing 3545 USD/ounce on September 3, following a previous day where it crossed the 3500 USD mark, setting a new historical high [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to macro policy expectations and political risk concerns, with dovish statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman boosting market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] Analyst Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to 3800 USD/ounce, highlighting a significant negative correlation between gold prices and the US dollar index [3] - UBS expects gold prices to continue reaching new highs in the coming quarters, driven by a low interest rate environment, weak economic data, and rising macro uncertainty [3] Fund Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the first gold ETFs in China, managed by experienced fund manager Xu Zhiyan [4] - The fund serves as an important tool for investors to allocate gold assets, allowing direct trading or participation through its linked funds [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline on September 2, with major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 falling by 0.55%, 0.82%, and 0.69% respectively [1] - Large-cap technology stocks saw a significant drop, with the Wind U.S. Technology Seven Giants Index decreasing by 1.10%, and notable declines in Tesla (down 1.35%), Amazon (down 1.60%), and Nvidia (down 1.97%) [1] - In contrast, popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.52%, and significant gains in stocks like Zhengye Technology (up over 35%) and Baozun (up over 11%) [1] Group 2 - International precious metal prices rose, with London spot gold reaching a historic high of $3532.405 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures also hitting a record high of $3599.5 per ounce [1] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations, particularly the shift towards a "dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve, which has heightened market anticipation for a potential interest rate cut in September [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, fueled by President Trump's personnel changes aimed at increasing control over the Fed, have further enhanced the appeal of precious metals as a safe-haven investment [2]

Market Overview - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 falling by 0.55%, 0.82%, and 0.69% respectively [2][3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.52%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as Zhengye Technology up over 35%, Baozun up over 11%, and Li Auto up over 4% [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached historical highs, with London spot gold rising by 1.64% to $3532.405 per ounce and COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [5][6] - Both ICE Brent crude and U.S. WTI crude oil prices increased by over 1% [5] European Market - Major European stock indices declined, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.87%, CAC 40 down by 0.70%, and DAX down by 2.29% [4] Google (Alphabet) Update - Google shares saw a significant increase, rising by nearly 7% after a U.S. judge ruled that Google does not need to sell Chrome but must share information with competitors to address online search monopoly issues [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by coordinated regulatory efforts and supportive macroeconomic policies, leading to a recovery in market stability and investor confidence [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 2900 points to 3600 points since September last year, with the ChiNext Index showing a monthly increase of over 8% in July, outperforming global markets [1] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the positive trends in the capital market, indicating a commitment to maintaining stability and growth [1] Group 2 - China's GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects effective macroeconomic policies and the resilience of the economy, with significant structural improvements noted in emerging industries [2] - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has provided a solid foundation for economic support, with foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Regulatory upgrades have activated asset valuation recovery, with reforms aimed at enhancing market stability and encouraging long-term capital inflows, thus injecting vitality into the market [3] Group 3 - The articles emphasize that while the market is expected to trend upwards, it will not be without fluctuations, highlighting the importance of China's institutional advantages and comprehensive market structure in fostering a healthy capital market [3] - The focus on optimizing policy environments and solidifying economic foundations is crucial for sustaining the momentum of capital market recovery and supporting high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by coordinated regulatory efforts and macroeconomic stability [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 2900 points to 3600 points since September last year, with the ChiNext Index showing a monthly increase of over 8% in July, leading global markets [1] - The central government's recent meeting highlighted the need to consolidate the recovery and positive trend of the capital market [1] Group 2 - China's GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects effective macroeconomic policies and the resilience of the economy, with significant structural optimization in emerging industries [2] - The collaboration of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has provided a solid foundation for economic stability, with foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [2] - The regulatory upgrades have activated asset valuation recovery, with reforms enhancing market stability and encouraging long-term capital inflow [3] Group 3 - The articles indicate that the capital market's upward trend is supported by the advantages of the socialist system, a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [3] - The focus on improving the economic foundation, optimizing the policy environment, and enhancing market systems is crucial for sustaining a healthy capital market that contributes to high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the steel market showed signs of recovery with significant increases in both raw material and finished product prices, with raw material prices rising more than finished products [1] - For August, the market sentiment is expected to stabilize following an important meeting, leading to reduced capital inflow and insufficient upward momentum [1][17] - Despite being a traditional off-season, demand for steel has shown unexpected resilience, with inventory levels remaining low [1][17] Group 2: Production and Capacity - As of July 31, the operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased significantly to 45.45%, up 9.09 percentage points month-on-month, while blast furnace operating rates rose slightly to 78.59% [2] - Steel production data indicates that the total weekly output of construction steel reached 3.2782 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.49% [3] - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in July was slightly less than in June, with a mixed impact across different steel varieties [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - In July, steel consumption saw a slight decline, with construction steel demand decreasing by 3.6% month-on-month, while expectations for August indicate a narrowing of the decline [6][8] - The construction sector's steel usage fell by 2.7% in July, with a projected further decline of 1.6% in August [8] - Overall, the apparent consumption of construction steel increased to 3.2171 million tons in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [10] Group 4: Inventory Levels - By the end of July, total steel inventory shifted from a decrease to an increase, remaining significantly lower than the same period last year [12][13] - The total inventory of construction steel reached 6.9966 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% [13] Group 5: Profitability - In July, the profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased, while electric arc furnace mills saw a rapid recovery in profits, with the profit per ton for blast furnace steel at 201 yuan and for electric arc furnace steel at -112 yuan [15][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel market in August is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation, with demand showing signs of marginal recovery but still in a downward trend [17][19] - The supply side is expected to remain resilient, with electric arc furnace production increasing and blast furnace operations maintaining profitability [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in glass futures prices, primarily driven by falling coal prices, which reduced production costs for coal-based glass [1] - The glass futures contract FG2509 experienced a trading volume of 2.84 million lots, with an increase in open interest by over 140,000 lots, highlighting heightened speculative trading despite regulatory measures [1] - The macroeconomic policy environment has not provided positive signals, with recent meetings reiterating existing policies without introducing new fiscal measures or real estate support, leading to increased investor risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The overall market for glass is under pressure, with regional performance showing significant differences; for instance, prices in North China are stable while East China sees slight declines [1] - Inventory data reveals a decrease in total inventory to 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a six-week decline, but this is driven by midstream shifts rather than improvements in end-user consumption [1] - The production side shows a recovery, with the float glass industry operating at a 75% capacity utilization rate, reaching a new high of 79.78% [1] Group 3 - Profit margins for different production processes show a clear divergence, with coal-to-gas and petroleum coke processes achieving weekly profits exceeding 135 CNY/ton, while natural gas processes remain at a loss [2] - The demand outlook remains weak, with policy expectations falling short and urban renewal efforts focusing on high-quality development, resulting in sales rates in major regions between 60-80% [2] Group 4 - Multiple institutions predict that glass prices will maintain high volatility, with structural demand differentiation and unclear seasonal improvement expectations [3] - Some institutions suggest a low-long strategy for glass futures, indicating that the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged despite increased speculative trading [3] - The weak demand from the real estate sector, which constitutes about 75% of glass demand, is expected to dominate short-term market logic, as sales and new construction remain sluggish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] Core Viewpoints - For propylene, after the Politburo meeting, there are strong expectations on the macro - policy front, but the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak. Supply - side pressure is increasing significantly, with device restarts and rising PDH capacity utilization. Many downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the cost support is weak due to the weak oil prices [3]. - For polyolefins, the fundamentals change little, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. There are both shutdown and startup plans for some devices, with rising capacity utilization expectations and increasing supply pressure. The cost support is weak, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures related to propylene basis structure include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract [10][13] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization [19][21][29] III. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Figures include the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] IV. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Figures cover the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][53][60] V. Propylene Inventory - Figures show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] VI. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [70][74] VII. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [79][87][93] VIII. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between HD injection molding and LL East China, HD blow molding and LL East China, HD film and LL East China, LD East China and LL, PP low - melt copolymer and drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding and drawn wire in East China [97][100][101] IX. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures include LL import profit, differences between LL US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, LL Europe FD and China's CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), differences between PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB and China's CFR, and LL export profit [106][117][122] X. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Figures cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, winding film, PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and their corresponding production gross profits [128][129][134] XI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [139][142][144]