1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand repair foundation remains weak, and the policy - driven infrastructure investment has slowed down, dragging down overall investment. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low, and policies may focus on expanding fiscal, credit, and real - estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market [11]. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but there is still no clear breakthrough. Patience is needed to wait for better allocation value. Currently, with economic data released, the market focus should shift to the capital market and the stock - bond seesaw. Short - term bond varieties have higher certainty as cross - month funds are stable [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the performance of long - term bond varieties, while stable cross - month funds supported short - term varieties [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed slightly, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.8075%, up 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: Cross - quarter funds were stable. There were 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 2886 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Short - term capital rates rose slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits down 0.22bp to 1.3103%, the 7 - day rate up 3.17bp to 1.5873%, and medium - and long - term funds rising slightly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was 1.67% with little change [10] 4.2 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [13]. - On the morning of September 29, Premier Li Qiang met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son - hee, expressing China's willingness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with North Korea [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan, all for supplementing project capital, and efforts are being made to invest the funds in specific projects [13]. - The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 29, with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96201 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79372 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the tax payable was 3.90125 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; and the asset - liability ratio was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Transaction data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 29 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. For example, the closing price of TL2512 was 113.720, down 0.540, with a decline of 0.47% [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank capital sentiment index, short - term and medium - long - term capital rates, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate is presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Diagrams of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) are mentioned [36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of September 19, 2025, the debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds of government bonds are nearly issued, with about 2.1 trillion yuan of remaining varieties to be issued, indicating fiscal room for more efforts. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, there are several possibilities, and different issuance methods have different requirements and limitations [2][32]. - The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong. The 14D reverse repurchase is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and the operation may be more flexible. The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented" [3][57]. - From late September to early October, in order to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious [4][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Bond Classification, Progress, and Outlook 3.1.1 Types of Debt - Resolution Local Bonds - **Replacement Bonds**: General replacement bonds include replacement bonds (used from 2015 - 2019) and replacement - type refinancing special bonds (used from 2024 - 2026). The 2025 quota of replacement bonds is nearly issued. The replacement bonds in 2015 - 2018 issued 12.2 trillion yuan, and in 2019, 1579 billion yuan was issued. From 2024, the replacement - type refinancing special bonds are used, with 2 trillion yuan per year from 2024 - 2026, and as of September 19, 2025, 19747 billion yuan has been issued [14][19][20]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: Since 2020, they have become a new tool for local government debt resolution. The issuance can be divided into four stages, with a total issuance of about 31298 billion yuan. As of September 19, 2025, the 4000 - billion - yuan quota added in October 2024 has accumulated an issuance of 3981 billion yuan, and the existing quota is nearly issued [24][25][26]. - **Special Newly - Added Special Bonds**: Some newly - added special bonds not disclosing "one case and two books" are mainly used for resolving implicit debts. From 2024 - 2028, there is an 8000 - billion - yuan quota per year. As of September 19, 2025, 11506 billion yuan has been issued, and the excess may be used to repay government arrears to enterprises [27][31]. 3.1.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bond Varieties and Q4 Outlook - As of September 19, 2025, debt - resolution varieties and special treasury bonds are nearly issued, and the remaining varieties to be issued are about 2.1 trillion yuan. If there is an increase in government bond issuance in Q4, for treasury bonds, raising the quota requires approval from the National People's Congress, and there may be a rush - to - issue phenomenon in advance. Using the remaining quota does not require approval from the National People's Congress, but the current space is limited. For local bonds, the remaining quota and replacement bond quota have been allocated, but issuance requires fiscal approval [2][32][36]. 3.2 Monetary Policy 3.2.1 How to View the Tightening of Funds During the Tax Period and at the End of the Month? - In mid - September, due to the central bank's restrained liquidity injection, tax payments, and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the funds tightened briefly. Looking forward, funds may gradually ease in the last 7 days of the quarter, and the risk of fund fluctuations is relatively limited [44][47]. 3.2.2 How to Understand the Reform of the 14D Reverse Repurchase Bidding Method? - The 14D reverse repurchase bidding method is changed to multiple - rate bidding, which further strengthens the policy - rate status of the 7D reverse repurchase. The theoretical price is currently 1.55%. The 14D reverse repurchase in September is expected to support a smooth quarter - end transition, and subsequent operations may be more flexible [50][51][52]. 3.2.3 Will China Follow the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut? - The Fed's interest - rate cut opens up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the domestic policy is still "domestically - oriented". The urgency of domestic interest - rate cuts at the end of the year is not strong, and the focus is on structural policy tools to boost broad credit [57][59][60]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy - From late September to early October, pro - growth policies may disrupt the bond market. For allocation portfolios, when the 10y treasury bond yield is around 1.8%, it gradually becomes cost - effective; trading portfolios need to be cautious, and appropriate strategies include small - band micro - operations, short - credit coupon income, and waiting for better opportunities [61][65][66]. - Some varieties show cost - effectiveness and can be gradually entered during the adjustment process. According to the three - factor interest - rate bond comparison analysis framework, continue to pay attention to the 6y CDB bonds, 7y local bonds, and 10y CDB bonds. Funds with stable liabilities can pay attention to 20y CDB bonds and 30y treasury bonds [67]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted net OMO injections, and the funding situation was balanced but tight [81]. 3.4.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [83]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of CDB bonds narrowed. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds and CDB bonds performed better than the long - end varieties [78][88].

Market Overview - On September 17, the market experienced a significant rise, while brokerage stocks saw a consistent decline, interpreted as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and GJD's directive to slow down market pressure [1] Sector Performance - Four sectors showed notable performance: - The Hang Seng Technology and semiconductor equipment sectors surged, driven by Baidu Kunlun's GPU gaining significant market share in China Mobile's bidding, alongside increased capital expenditure from tech giants due to AI narratives and global liquidity easing [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector's rise was attributed to rumors of SMIC testing domestic DUV lithography machines, marking a significant milestone in semiconductor equipment technology [3] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector faced a sharp decline due to panic triggered by the plummeting stock of Yaokang Pharmaceutical, compounded by previous threats from Trump, although the sector is now showing signs of value after recent corrections [4] - Gold stocks also fell, reflecting the market's tendency to "buy the expectation, sell the fact," despite rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and international gold prices reaching historical highs [4] Capital Flow Trends - Market funds continue to gravitate towards robotics, Hang Seng Technology, and semiconductor equipment sectors, indicating a strong interest in large tech directions [5] Regulatory Influence - Recent market trends indicate a pattern where technology stocks decline while consumer and banking stocks rise, suggesting regulatory efforts to channel funds towards technology sectors while intentionally managing market pressure to achieve a slow bull market [6] Market Outlook - Concerns are raised about the market's sustainability without loose credit and monetary policies, as well as the potential impact of major shareholders reducing their stakes and the absence of large financial institutions to support the market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic data for August showed marginal weakness rather than a sharp decline. It's not necessary for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which could bring disturbances to the bond market. However, as the fastest - strengthening phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may ease. Overall, the bond market's suppression may ease but still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient for better allocation opportunities. Currently, with the release of economic data, the short - end bonds may be more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose funds [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures recovered in the afternoon, with most contracts closing higher. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2 - 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7800%, down 2bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank resumed net injections in the open market, and the funding situation remained stable. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 40 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] 3.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th local time, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, Spain, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The real - estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [14] - As of the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for multiple Treasury bond futures contracts on September 16th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes figures related to the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase interest rate change [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [37]

Group 1 - Personal loan growth has been boosted due to traditional summer consumption peaks and policies promoting consumption, leading to increased loan demand [1] - New housing policies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have improved housing demand, resulting in a noticeable increase in personal housing loan consultations and signings [1] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing local hidden debts reached 1.9 trillion yuan by the end of August, contributing to a higher loan growth rate of approximately 7.8% after adjusting for related impacts [1] Group 2 - The social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies [2] - Government bond balances increased by 21.1% year-on-year, indicating strong support for social financing growth [2] - M1 and M2 growth rates are narrowing, with M2 at 331.98 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while M1 grew by 6% to 111.23 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 3 - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6% to 14.87 trillion yuan [4] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a favorable lending environment [4] - Analysts expect the macroeconomic environment to remain stable, with a predicted growth target of around 5% for the year, reflecting positive market confidence [4] Group 4 - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to continue playing a role in enhancing financial support for key sectors, while maintaining reasonable total financial growth [5] - The need for optimizing the structure of financial support is emphasized, especially in light of high household leverage and pressure on bank asset quality [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's financial metrics, including social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans, are showing robust year-on-year growth, reflecting a stable financial environment that supports economic activities [2][5][6] - As of the end of August, the social financing scale reached 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, indicating a strong support for economic activities [5] - The M1 and M2 "scissor difference" has narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the smallest value this year, suggesting a shift towards more liquid deposits that can facilitate consumption and investment [5][6] Group 2 - The RMB loan balance reached 269.1 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, supported by recovering industry sentiment, resilient exports, and seasonal consumption peaks [3][4] - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant increase in loan demand, with new manufacturing loans accounting for 53% of new corporate loans, up 33 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Personal loans have also increased due to traditional summer consumption patterns and policies promoting consumption, indicating a rise in consumer demand [3][4] Group 3 - Recent housing policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have stimulated demand for personal housing loans, leading to a noticeable increase in loan consultations and agreements [4] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing local government hidden debts reached 1.9 trillion yuan by the end of August, contributing to a higher loan growth rate [4] - The overall loan growth rate, adjusted for the impact of hidden debt replacement, is estimated to be around 7.8%, indicating strong support for the real economy [4] Group 4 - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6%, both outpacing the overall loan growth rate [7] - Loan interest rates remain at historical lows, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year [7] - Analysts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to support a stable and moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing financial support for key sectors [8][9]

Group 1: Regulatory Actions in the Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has launched a three-month campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on illegal profit-making activities [2][3] - Key issues targeted include the creation of false content to manipulate public perception of automotive companies, as well as the use of fake evaluations to extort businesses [2][3] - The campaign aims to enhance self-regulation among automotive companies and improve reporting channels for identifying online misconduct [4] Group 2: Misleading Advertising and Malicious Attacks - The initiative also addresses exaggerated and false advertising practices, including misleading claims about vehicle performance and sales figures [3] - There are concerns about malicious attacks on automotive companies, including organized efforts to discredit competitors and manipulate public opinion through fake news [3] Group 3: Corporate Responses and Market Implications - Automotive companies are encouraged to conduct self-assessments and report any identified issues to relevant authorities, aiming for a more transparent and fair market environment [4] - The initiative may lead to stricter regulations and oversight in the automotive sector, potentially impacting companies' marketing strategies and public relations efforts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, leading to negative returns for over a thousand bond funds, while the equity market has seen a rise in investor confidence due to supportive policies [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - Since early July, the 30-year government bond futures have retraced over 5%, with other maturities also showing declines, indicating a broad adjustment in the bond market [2][3]. - As of September 9, the yields for various government bonds have increased, with the 30-year yield nearing 2.10%, reflecting a shift in market expectations and risk appetite [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Over a thousand bond funds have reported negative returns this year, with 50 funds showing returns below -2% and 181 funds below -1% [4]. - In contrast, convertible bond funds and mixed equity-bond funds have performed relatively well, with some convertible bond funds exceeding 20% returns [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustments in the bond market are attributed to a shift in expectations driven by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, leading to a stronger equity market and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3][6]. - The recent regulatory changes regarding fund fees may influence investor behavior, potentially increasing the attractiveness of bond funds despite current market challenges [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the bond market faces short-term pressures from rising equity markets, there remains fundamental support for bonds, and a potential stabilization could occur if negative sentiment dissipates [6]. - The ongoing dynamics between equity and bond markets will continue to be a focal point, with the possibility of structural opportunities arising as the market adjusts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, leading to negative returns for over a thousand bond funds, while the equity market has seen a resurgence in investor confidence due to supportive policies [2][8]. Group 1: Bond Market Adjustments - Since early July, the 30-year government bond futures have retraced over 5%, with other maturities also showing declines, indicating a broad adjustment in the bond market [4][5]. - The recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to changing expectations, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and a shift in risk appetite due to a strengthening equity market [6][11]. Group 2: Fund Performance - As of September 9, over a thousand bond funds reported negative year-to-date returns, with 50 funds showing returns below -2% and 181 funds not exceeding -1% [8]. - In contrast, convertible bond funds and mixed equity-bond funds have performed relatively well, with several convertible bond funds achieving returns exceeding 20% [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market is facing redemption pressures due to declining net values, with nearly 20 funds experiencing significant redemptions in the past month [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current bond market adjustments may serve as a correction to previous overpricing, as the market had been overly crowded, leading to declining bond yields [9]. - The introduction of new regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding public fund fees has raised concerns among investors, although some analysts believe the impact on the bond market will be limited [9][12].