Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for polysilicon is improving, but actual transaction volumes remain limited, influenced by policy expectations and price fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 41,330 yuan/ton, up 1.94% on the day and over 16% for the week [1] - Since July, the market has shifted to a bullish sentiment due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a cumulative increase of over 28% in polysilicon futures prices over three weeks [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures to 9% and raised margin requirements for speculative trading to 11% [1] Group 2: Spot Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 37,100 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.92%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 35,600 yuan/ton, up 6.27% [2] - Despite a significant price increase of 25% to 35% in polysilicon quotes, the volume of new orders remains limited, indicating a cautious market response [2] - The current market focus has shifted towards policy regulation, with the demand side showing signs of weakness as downstream production of solar modules has been adjusted downwards [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current market environment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, highlighting the disparity between market sentiment and actual demand [3] - The rise in polysilicon prices is positively impacting industrial silicon prices, suggesting a potential increase in demand for industrial silicon due to improved profitability in polysilicon [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to rise, driven by policy guidance and expectations of effective capacity clearing and structural adjustments in the industry, despite a lack of substantial support from actual transactions in the spot market [1][2][6] Price Trends - The main polysilicon futures contract saw an increase of over 5%, settling at a 3.40% rise, with mainstream enterprise prices climbing to 40 yuan/kg and above [1] - Recent adjustments in polysilicon prices include a rise of 3000 yuan/ton for N-type re-investment material to 39,000 yuan/ton, and other N-type materials also saw significant price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market has not changed significantly, with a balance in monthly supply and demand, and ongoing destocking [2] - The market is experiencing a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, where the actual performance in the spot market does not align with optimistic forecasts [4] Industry Responses - Major polysilicon companies are recalculating their full costs and reporting to management, with potential penalties for selling below cost [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is prompting the photovoltaic sector to respond actively, leading to noticeable price increases in polysilicon [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain a wide fluctuation range, with no official guidelines on cost pricing measures yet [3] - The overall demand for polysilicon is under pressure due to declining profits in silicon wafer companies and high inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to remain weak in the short term but may see improvements in the long term due to policy support and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.13% and a trading volume of 1.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.12%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes fell 0.03% and 0.06% respectively. The market volatility declined after sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the week, with the non-ferrous and TMT sectors performing strongly and the home appliance, coal, and food and beverage sectors weakening. Since June, Chinese assets have shown strong performance, with both stocks and bonds rising, pricing in potential policy changes in June. The market expects positive progress in Sino-US communication, changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum in mid-to-late June. The PPI data indicates that China's economic inflation remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may shift to a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with consumption and technology likely to dominate the market style. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow for three consecutive quarters but remained below the policy rate, while the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, and the ROE was still in the bottoming-out and stabilizing stage [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract rose 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rose 0.4bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 rose 1bp to 1.54%. In June, the bond market's focus returned to changes in the capital market. Due to the large maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit and the continued increase in government bond issuance, concerns about a temporary tightening of the capital market in June increased. However, the central bank's early announcement of a 50 billion yuan net injection of 3-month outright reverse repurchase operations significantly alleviated market concerns, and the bond market showed a slight bullish steepening trend. In the short term, the expectation of capital market tightness has weakened, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed mixed performance, with different indexes having different trends. The market volatility declined, and certain sectors performed strongly while others weakened. Since June, Chinese assets have performed well, pricing in potential policy changes. The economic inflation remains low, and the market style may be dominated by consumption and technology. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow, but the net profit increased, and the ROE was in the bottoming-out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities of treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank market interest rates rose. In June, the bond market focused on capital market changes, and concerns about tightening increased initially but were alleviated later. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.01%, the IF contract rose 0.12%, the IC contract rose 0.33%, and the IM contract rose 0.21%. Among the stock indexes, the SSE 50 fell 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 rose 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.09% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract fell 0.01%, the TF contract fell 0.06%, the T contract fell 0.05%, and the TL contract rose 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and reached consensus on implementing the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks framework, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases and urges the US to abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of each contract [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bonds, the historical basis trends of different maturities of treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate, the euro against the RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates of different tenors, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [21][22][25][26].